# GA special election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 28, 2017, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575 "2017-05-28T02:22:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 14
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/261 "2017-06-21T22:53:24Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > This is something, IMHO, the political left sometimes fails to grasp. They willelk, “Why did people vote for (Trump/Bush/Romney/McCain/insert-Republican)?” Answer: “Because (Reason X).” Liberal: “But that’s not a _(valid/logical/good)_ reason!” It doesn’t \*have \*to be a good reason. It’s not that it’s a “bad reason to vote for Trump” - it’s an unbelievable reason. People act like that in stupid sitcoms, not real life. Homer Simpson would vote for Trump because you dared him to, your conservative old uncle didn’t. And I’m not what I would consider “of the political left” at any rate. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/262 "2017-06-21T22:57:13Z")
Well, no, but he didn’t eat those election day brownies I made for him, got suspicious and fed them to the dog. Good news is, the dog has a very zen attitude now. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/263 "2017-06-21T23:04:16Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > Trump is an issue that transcends political fine points like party affiliation. He is a disaster on wheels. And a grim portion of our electorate not only does not see that, but is wildly supportive of utter rot. I can understand that tighty-rightys infected with the Rand pox could see him as a paragon of the virtue of grasping ambition, but how do evangelicals see him as a Christian? That’s your mistake. They don’t have to see him as a Christian. They only need to see someone who serves God’s plan. Having VP Mike Pence sitting just one wheezing, atherosclerotic heartbeat and/or an impeachment away from the Presidency… if there is a God with a Plan for the Republicans, this is the best one we’ve seen in a while. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/264 "2017-06-21T23:07:31Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > how do evangelicals see him as a Christian? Most don’t. They see him as an unsavory-but-necessary pick for president, someone who may get their agenda/goals enacted in a way that a President Hillary wouldn’t. And IIRC around 25-30% of evangelical voters did not vote for him still. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/265 "2017-06-21T23:11:01Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > It’s not that it’s a “bad reason to vote for Trump” - it’s an unbelievable reason. People act like that in stupid sitcoms, not real life. People often have strange reasons for doing things; reasons that don’t stack up. I’ve heard of someone who joined the military for the primary purpose of wanting to shoot a machine gun. A strange reason, but apparently sufficient to make him want to enlist. > [@CarnalK](#): > > And I’m not what I would consider “of the political left” at any rate. Right, I didn’t mean you personally; was talking in general terms. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/266 "2017-06-21T23:19:27Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Most don’t. They see him as an unsavory-but-necessary pick for president, someone who may get their agenda/goals enacted in a way that a President Hillary wouldn’t. And IIRC around 25-30% of evangelical voters did not vote for him still. Precisely. I would say that, of the many people I know on Facebook who voted for Trump, only about a quarter of them did so because they actually like what he says and stands for. The rest did so because a) He would appoint conservative judges, b) he was a Republican, and would sign Republican bills on things like the ACA, c) He was not infected with liberalism, and wouldn’t promote the “liberal” agenda, or d) some combination of two or more of the above. When the news came out about what Trump said in the fateful “pussy” interview, I called out my FB friends who were Trumpistas and said that this clearly showed that, if they continued to support him for President, then they were essentially making clear that character was meaningless, and they were voting for him in SPITE of that character. Not a single one of them disputed that with any strength. This made it clear that the vote was not so much about Trump the man as it was about Trump and what he would do as a Republican President. Because for those people, that was preferable to having that evil criminal, Hillary Clinton, in the White House. Nothing that has happened in the five months he’s been President would have shaken that attitude. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/267 "2017-06-21T23:55:17Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > People often have strange reasons for doing things; reasons that don’t stack up. I’ve heard of someone who joined the military for the primary purpose of wanting to shoot a machine gun. A strange reason, but apparently sufficient to make him want to enlist. But would anyone ever say “the military’s recruitment problem is they don’t have enough machine gun commercials”? Sure, there are idiots like your acquaintance but that doesn’t mean they are a remotely significant part of the voting population. It is simply not reasonable, imho, to think a meaningful number of swing voters went Trump out of spite. The reason this little conjecture has any traction is out of people’s sense of drama. It just feels so delicious that one’s hubris leads directly to one’s downfall. It’s a Shakespearean analysis, not a political one. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2017, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/268 "2017-06-22T00:06:59Z")
FWIW, here’s the article: [How Late-Night Comedy Fueled the Rise of Trump](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/05/how-late-night-comedy-alienated-conservatives-made-liberals-smug-and-fueled-the-rise-of-trump/521472/) ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2017, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/269 "2017-06-22T00:08:11Z")
The number of people who can actually be swayed from one side to the other might be fairly small (though, really, 5-8% is quite a lot in politics), but that isn’t the only way to swing an election. Turnout also matters. Here, the Republicans turned out in lower numbers for the special than for the general, and that’s fairly typical, but the Democrats turned out in nearly the same numbers. That’s not so typical, and suggests that the party was doing something right to get that much engagement. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2017, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/270 "2017-06-22T00:15:10Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > The number of people who can actually be swayed from one side to the other might be fairly small (though, really, 5-8% is quite a lot in politics), but that isn’t the only way to swing an election. Turnout also matters. Here, the Republicans turned out in lower numbers for the special than for the general, and that’s fairly typical, but the Democrats turned out in nearly the same numbers. That’s not so typical, and suggests that the party was doing something right to get that much engagement. Or it suggests they wasted a tonne of effort in a hopeless battle. How much will a “closer than we expected!” loss help them going forward? Not much is my guess. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2017, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/271 "2017-06-22T00:24:18Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Or it suggests they wasted a tonne of effort in a hopeless battle. How much will a “closer than we expected!” loss help them going forward? Not much is my guess. Do you think it would have done much good for the base to see a race that looked like there was a long-shot chance, and to watch the DNC ignore it? It’s a bit dispiriting to lose a fight you fought hard for. But it’s at least as dispiriting to see a fight lost because no effort was put into it. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2017, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/272 "2017-06-22T00:27:23Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > But would anyone ever say “the military’s recruitment problem is they don’t have enough machine gun commercials”? Sure, there are idiots like your acquaintance but that doesn’t mean they are a remotely significant part of the voting population. It is simply not reasonable, imho, to think a meaningful number of swing voters went Trump out of spite. > > The reason this little conjecture has any traction is out of people’s sense of drama. It just feels so delicious that one’s hubris leads directly to one’s downfall. It’s a Shakespearean analysis, not a political one. I think it is quite plausible indeed. Suppose that you are a centrist swing voter, or maybe someone who leans just a little bit Democratic. And in spring or summer 2016 you see a smarmy, dislikable comedian with a snarky voice calling Hillary a bitch and all kinds of names and guarantees that she will never win the presidency. Wouldn’t that make you want to vote Hillary out of spite, even just a little bit? ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2017, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/273 "2017-06-22T00:31:35Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > I think it is quite plausible indeed. > > Suppose that you are a centrist swing voter, or maybe someone who leans just a little bit Democratic. And in spring or summer 2016 you see a smarmy, dislikable comedian with a snarky voice calling Hillary a bitch and all kinds of names and guarantees that she will never win the presidency. Wouldn’t that make you want to vote Hillary out of spite, even just a little bit? I lean a lot Democratic. The shitty things I saw people saying about Clinton never once made me want to vote for her. It just makes me think the speaker is contemptible. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2017, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/274 "2017-06-22T00:44:26Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > I think it is quite plausible indeed. > > Suppose that you are a centrist swing voter, or maybe someone who leans just a little bit Democratic. And in spring or summer 2016 you see a smarmy, dislikable comedian with a snarky voice calling Hillary a bitch and all kinds of names and guarantees that she will never win the presidency. Wouldn’t that make you want to vote Hillary out of spite, even just a little bit? With all honestly, not even fucking remotely. I can hate a comedian without even coming close to making life decisions based on spiting him. And frankly, assuming a meaningful number of people voted for Trump on that basis is at least as insulting as anything Seth Meyers said about Trump voters. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2017, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/275 "2017-06-22T00:57:09Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > Do you think it would have done much good for the base to see a race that looked like there was a long-shot chance, and to watch the DNC ignore it? > > It’s a bit dispiriting to lose a fight you fought hard for. But it’s at least as dispiriting to see a fight lost because no effort was put into it. You do realize that a long shot means very very unlikely, right? As I said in the other thread on this election linked earlier by LHoD, it was never reasonable to expect a win here. Trump’s shenanigans may have made it closer than ever but still, by American standards, a solid win for the Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2017, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/276 "2017-06-22T01:31:35Z")
And yet, wasn’t there another election earlier this year that looked like such a longshot that the DNC wouldn’t even drop ten grand on it for overhead costs, and that turned out being pretty close anyway, close enough that a small investment just might have swung it? Because that certainly was disenhearting. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2017, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/277 "2017-06-22T02:17:50Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > You brought those things up in order to say “_based on those fundamentals I thought it was underpriced_”; I didn’t realize that you also thought they were also predictors of victory. > > Hard to see, also. Even if every Republican primary voter coalesced around Handel - a very shaky assumption, IMO - it would only give her a margin of a few points. It’s not uncommon for a race to move by a few points in a several months, especially considering everything that’s been going on at the national level and the unprecedented amount of money that went into this race. And even more especially in the face of polls showing that actually happening. > > Obviously it worked out for you here. But even with hindsight it still looks like a close call to me.Disagree. “It’s hard to bet against it” is not remotely the same thing as saying you’d have to be “daydreaming” in order to think it won’t happen. I really have no idea why you’re arguing that it’s a change in spin, and apparently I’m not the only one. My point then is the same now: the race was obviously competitive enough that a win had to be at least considered as a possible outcome. My remarks about “daydreaming” had more to do with the notion that this is some huge setback for Democrats – it isn’t for the reason that I mentioned. There’s no way any political analyst can look at Ossoff’s loss and suggest that he and his party blew it. They didn’t lose because of something he did or didn’t do. Rather, he probably exhausted all of his energy and options against the local Republican machine that came together (as expected) in time for the race. They weren’t going to lose that race unless they really collapsed as a party. And the win proves that they didn’t collapse. However, they only won by 4-5% which means that the Democrats are competing with Republicans in deep red states. What I said before the race was that it was far more important for Republicans that they not lose that race, for if they had it would have portended something quite ominous. A GOP loss, had it happened, would have signaled that they can no longer count on their most reliable base to come together to fight off the growing Democratic counter-fight. It’s a different story for the Democrats. Yes, I get that they’re frustrated and desperate to get in the win column. They obviously want to avenge their humiliation in November, but they just haven’t had the opportunity to take a seat that’s within their reach. They need to be patient and not hit the panic button. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2017, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/278 "2017-06-22T02:23:44Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Or it suggests they wasted a tonne of effort in a hopeless battle. How much will a “closer than we expected!” loss help them going forward? Not much is my guess. It really depends on how the various factions and personalities within the Democratic party respond. If the Bernie Sanders and California faction insist on doubling down on Medicare for all and $25 / hour minimum wages (being a little sarcastic), then I could see the Democrats self-destructing. There’s no evidence that Georgians want Dems to ‘Speak Bernie’ to them. In fact you could make the argument that it would have backfired last night. Hillary Clinton and Ossoff were competitive because they were centrists. And I hope that Democrats can find ways to temper passion with pragmatism. If the Dems go full-on passionate hipster left, they’ll get blown out of the water in 2020. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2017, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/279 "2017-06-22T02:43:24Z")
I’ve said for a while that the Dems need a little internal triangulation. To find a message that both unifies and transcends Clintonite corporatism and Sandersian semi-socialism, while not coming across as pandering. When the minorities, the intelligentsia and the white working class vote Dem, they’re unstoppable. ---
**Author:** ![notheretoargue](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/e95f7d/32.png) [@notheretoargue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notheretoargue)\ **Post date:** [June 22, 2017, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/280 "2017-06-22T04:23:35Z")
> [@VinylTurnip](#): > > I predict that I will be the first person in this thread to correctly spell “Ossoff.” I didn’t read the entire 6 page thread to see if it had been asked, but do you feel you deserve some sort or prize, or trinket for your findings? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575.md?page=13) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575.md?page=15)