# GA special election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 28, 2017, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575 "2017-05-28T02:22:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2017, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/41 "2017-06-06T00:14:02Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > Ok, great, they accurately predicted the national popular vote. What practical effect does that have? 538’s job is laying odds and making predictions. They did better than pretty much all the the other big outfits. So the practical effect is they won the competition this election. Why are you talking like you’re fighting the “Hillary won the popular vote” meme? ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2017, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/42 "2017-06-06T01:09:49Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > 538’s job is laying odds and making predictions. They did better than pretty much all the the other big outfits. So the practical effect is they won the competition this election. Why are you talking like you’re fighting the “Hillary won the popular vote” meme? People who go on about the popular vote, here, at 538, or elsewhere, are woefully ignorant, that’s why. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2017, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/43 "2017-06-06T01:36:59Z")
Even though the popular vote doesn’t decide this particular election, there is still a certain satisfaction to be derived from knowing that there are more of us than there are of them…and saying so. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2017, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/44 "2017-06-06T03:41:52Z")
> [@E-DUB](#): > > Even though the popular vote doesn’t decide this particular election, there is still a certain satisfaction to be derived from knowing that there are more of us than there are of them…and saying so. It’s just about the last satisfaction your side has left. 😉 Personally, I’m not terribly convinced by it given that the [Republicans won the House popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2016#Results_summary). ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2017, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/45 "2017-06-06T04:11:07Z")
More than that, its how effective and focused the Republican Party is! A difference of roughly one percent in the votes (Republican 49.11% / Democratic 48.03%) is leveraged into 241 seats R, 194 D. Guess that’s just because Republicans are so much more \*creative \*than Dems! One percent more votes equals ten percent more power! That’s magic! David Blaine aint shit next to Jerry Mander! ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2017, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/46 "2017-06-06T04:33:07Z")
And yet the Democrats won a net increase in House seats. Math is hard. Especially when there are ~500 separate elections, each of which has little, if anything, to do with any of the others. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2017, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/47 "2017-06-06T04:46:49Z")
(ninja’d by revised post) ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2017, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/48 "2017-06-06T05:06:23Z")
> [@E-DUB](#): > > Even though the popular vote doesn’t decide this particular election, there is still a certain satisfaction to be derived from knowing that there are more of us than there are of them…and saying so. Keep telling yourself that, Secretary Clinton. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2017, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/49 "2017-06-06T05:16:29Z")
While we appreciate your approval, you needn’t bother. We can just take it as a given, save you some typing. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2017, 9:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/50 "2017-06-06T09:20:58Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > People who go on about the popular vote, here, at 538, or elsewhere, are woefully ignorant, that’s why. Yes, talking about facts is ignorant, unless those facts are the electoral college. All other facts are ignorant facts. Probably because they didn’t go to college. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/47e85d/32.png) [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Lance_Murdoch)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2017, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/51 "2017-06-06T20:04:33Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I just took my PredictIt winnings from Gianforte’s victory and bought HANDEL.GA06.2017 shares at 42 cents. > > That is: I predict, with not just a voice but real world money, that Handel beats Ossuff. Of course, the reason Handel was at 42 cents in the first place was that other people betting with real-world money were predominantly going the other way. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2017, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/52 "2017-06-06T20:50:08Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Yes, talking about facts is ignorant, unless those facts are the electoral college. I’m genuinely puzzled by how you don’t seem to understand that the popular vote is, inherently, irrelevant. Therefore, predictions about it, accurate or not, are also irrelevant. 😕 ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2017, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/53 "2017-06-06T21:03:44Z")
> [@D'Anctonia](#): > > I’m genuinely puzzled by how you don’t seem to understand that the popular vote is, inherently, irrelevant. > > Therefore, predictions about it, accurate or not, are also irrelevant. 😕 You are most certainly confused. Talking about predictions when discussing a predictions website is pretty much the whole discussion. “But not the popular vote prediction”, you say, because Hillary lost so get over it morons! ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2017, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/54 "2017-06-06T21:09:15Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > I’m genuinely puzzled by how you don’t seem to understand that the popular vote is, inherently, irrelevant. > > Therefore, predictions about it, accurate or not, are also irrelevant. 😕 Irrelevant to what? This discussion covers more topics than just the electoral college results. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2017, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/55 "2017-06-06T22:39:42Z")
> [@Captain\_Lance\_Murdoch](#): > > Of course, the reason Handel was at 42 cents in the first place was that other people betting with real-world money were predominantly going the other way. True. But that’s the other great benefit of real-world stakes: there is a win-loss record to observe. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2017, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/56 "2017-06-06T22:59:14Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Irrelevant to what? This discussion covers more topics than just the electoral college results. True. It tells us that HRC was very popular (compared to Trump) in CA and NY. I therefore predict that the Democratic candidate will win both states in 2020. I’ll go so far as to say that will happen _even if Trump isn’t the GOP candidate_! ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 6, 2017, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/57 "2017-06-06T23:12:59Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > True. It tells us that HRC was very popular (compared to Trump) in CA and NY. I therefore predict that the Democratic candidate will win both states in 2020. I’ll go so far as to say that will happen _even if Trump isn’t the GOP candidate_! The discussion (or this side-discussion) was actually about the prediction skills of Nate Silver’s 538 website. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2017, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/58 "2017-06-07T16:49:34Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > The discussion (or this side-discussion) was actually about the prediction skills of Nate Silver’s 538 website. Yes, and the issue is this: is the ability to successfully predict an irrelevant result meaningful when it comes to discussing the success of that website in making predictions about the 2016 United States Presidential and Congressional elections? Personally, I don’t see how that can be answered as yes or no. Watching people play tennis with the two is getting redundant around here. ---
**Author:** ![Dahnlor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dahnlor/32/533_2.png) [@Dahnlor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dahnlor)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2017, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/59 "2017-06-07T17:53:40Z")
Meanwhile, Karen Handel says at last night’s debate, [“I do not support a livable wage.”](http://www.salon.com/2017/06/07/karen-handel-i-do-not-not-support-a-livable-wage/) ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 7, 2017, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/60 "2017-06-07T18:00:43Z")
The ideal predictor would always predict some result with a 100% chance, and then be right 100% of the time. There are no ideal predictors, and so real-world predictors must make predictions with less absolute odds, such as 2 to 1. And if a predictor makes a number of 2 to 1 predictions, _and all of them end up going to the more-likely outcome_, then that predictor is a pretty bad predictor. Out of all of the 2 to 1 predictions that a predictor makes, they should be “right” on about two thirds of them, and “wrong” on about one third of them. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575.md?page=4)