# GA special election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 28, 2017, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575 "2017-05-28T02:22:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/101 "2017-06-20T16:12:37Z")
I disagree that a narrow win for either side in a district recently won by Trump by 1% is a “man bites dog” story. Of course, sometimes [perception equals reality](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-georgia-special-election-matters/). But that cuts both ways. FWIW, Handel has been steadily inching up on PredictIt’s betting market. But FWIW is “not much”, IMHO. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/102 "2017-06-20T16:14:37Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > From my perspective, it seems a complete tossup to me. I’ll be thrilled if he wins, but I worry about putting too much symbolic weight on it, for a couple of reasons. First, as others have said, Democrats need to strengthen local and state positions as a priority. Second, putting this much weight on a tossup/underdog race is really risky. > > That said, one takeaway has already happened, both here and in Montana: districts that should be comfortably Republican are not nearly so comfortable. I don’t know that we’ve had a lot of special elections so far in districts that were previously tossup districts; have we? Those elections are the ones that will, in my mind, be much more significant if Republicans hold on to. > > Montana and Georgia were “dog bites man” stories that looked like they might turn into “man bites dog” stories. Montana turned out to be a “dog bites man” story after all. If Georgia goes the same way, that’s not super-significant; “dog bites man” is the narrative we should expect. Didn’t Trump barely squeak out a win in this district, last November, by 1 point, or am I thinking of somewhere else? ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/103 "2017-06-20T16:16:14Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > I disagree that a narrow win for either side in a district recently won by Trump by 1% is a “man bites dog” story. Keep in mind that the last time a congressperson was elected in this district was seven months ago, and the Republican won by 23 points. It was considered such a safe district for Republicans that we’re having a special election there now: the Republican who won in 2016 left the position to join the president’s cabinet. Had Republicans predicted this would be a tossup special election, they almost certainly would have chosen a different person for the cabinet. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/104 "2017-06-20T16:18:47Z")
That congressperson was a multi-term incumbent. It’s not at all comparable to an open race. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/105 "2017-06-20T16:20:01Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > That congressperson was a multi-term incumbent. It’s not at all comparable to an open race. From your cite: > [@Nate Silver](#): > > In 2016, the Republican incumbent Tom Price, who vacated the seat to become Trump’s secretary of Health and Human Services, won the district by 23 percentage points. This was somewhat less than his 32-point margin in 2014 and his 29-point margin in 2012, but it nevertheless suggested that the district was still quite red. Republican representatives such as Price had a significant incumbency advantage in 2016, as incumbents almost always do — even in supposedly anti-establishment environments. But even if you adjust for that advantage, the Republican lean of the district is about 15 points, still too much for Ossoff to overcome given the generic ballot. In fact, coming within several points of Handel would count as a good result for him given Price’s performance. Emphasis added. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/106 "2017-06-20T16:27:01Z")
So it sounds like we’ve got a couple of data points. Trump barely won the district, Price has been killing it for years. What about other races? How much did Romney win the district by in 2012? What about Senate or Governor races? Had Republicans routinely been winning this area by 15 points, and Trump was an outlier? Or had Republicans barely been squeaking out wins and Price was the outlier? [Cook Partisan Voting Index - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index#By_congressional_district) calls the district R+8, so about half of Nate Silver’s estimate. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/107 "2017-06-20T16:28:11Z")
I disagree with NS on applying the generic incumbency advantage here. It’s different here in that Price was a multi-term incumbent and that he had a history of winning by big margins in the past. This means that the quality of his opponent (both in terms of resume and the like, as well as fundraising ability) is likely to be low, and his potential opposition is likely to be dispirited. If you calculate an “incumbency advantage” which includes short-term incumbents in historically competitive districts, then it’s going to look much worse than it is. You see a lot of instances of this sort of thing. Old time incumbents in changing districts consistently winning big majorities, only to have the district become much more competitive when they eventually step down. ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/108 "2017-06-20T16:32:02Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > That said, one takeaway has already happened, both here and in Montana: districts that should be comfortably Republican are not nearly so comfortable. Correction: districts that should be comfortably Republican are not nearly so comfortable when Democrats throw $50M at them. The question becomes - $50M times however many “comfortable” districts - what does that come to? ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/109 "2017-06-20T18:16:03Z")
Beats me. We let our evil puppet master worry about all that. _HEIL SOROS_! ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/110 "2017-06-20T18:24:59Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > You seem very pessimistic about Ossoff’s chances today. I’d say he’s got a decent chance to win. Why the negativity? Or is that just my perception? I’ve lived in/around the district for a while, and the voters here are what could fairly be called rabidly Republican and very politically motivated. Even though I call them “rabid”, I think enough of them are sufficiently principled that they could flip their vote to protest Trump’s offensiveness. But that candidate would have to be experienced, moderate, and authentic. Ossoff is a lightweight greenhorn, Handel is a known Republican quantity. So that’s the reason for my pessimism. I’ll be pleasantly shocked if Ossoff wins, but I don’t like this Democratic strategy of grubbing around for symbolic victories. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/111 "2017-06-20T18:26:48Z")
> [@Okrahoma](#): > > Correction: districts that should be comfortably Republican are not nearly so comfortable when Democrats throw $50M at them. The question becomes - $50M times however many “comfortable” districts - what does that come to? Your premise–that Democrats have outspent Republicans by $50M in GA-06–is false. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/112 "2017-06-20T18:29:44Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Yeah, I’m actually more tempted here. I got in at 42 and I can sell at 52. But I think I’d rather ride it. Looks like you can sell right now at 56. That’s a pretty solid 33% ROI (PredictIt will shave a bit off that) guaranteed with no risk versus a shot at 138% with a lot of risk. It depends on your estimate of the probability of a Handel win. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/113 "2017-06-20T18:38:27Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > I’ve lived in/around the district for a while, and the voters here are what could fairly be called rabidly Republican and very politically motivated. Even though I call them “rabid”, I think enough of them are sufficiently principled that they could flip their vote to protest Trump’s offensiveness. But that candidate would have to be experienced, moderate, and authentic. Ossoff is a lightweight greenhorn, Handel is a known Republican quantity. I don’t get how people purport to know the voters in their districts by living in and around them. The average congressional district has about 700K people in it, and no one could possibly interact with more than a tiny percentage of them. And of that percentage, you would only know the political leanings of a small percentage. I suppose you could get a bit of additional info if the letters to the editor section of local publication has a decided slant, but that’s not much. The only way I know how my district leans is by looking at voting results. If there’s some secret way of figuring out more, I’m curious as to what it is. > [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Your premise–that Democrats have outspent Republicans by $50M in GA-06–is false. He’s technically wrong, but his point is valid. Democrats have outspent Republicans by over 3-1 in that race, and the race has set records for spending in a House race. Both of these are unlikely to be replicated nationwide. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/114 "2017-06-20T18:46:10Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Your premise–that Democrats have outspent Republicans by $50M in GA-06–is false. Is it? I’m finding stuff saying that the race is going to be about $60 million, and that pro-Ossoff forces have outspent Handel forces by about 5-1, which would be very close to $50 million. Even if that’s not exact, the overall point may be valid: Dems have put a huge amount of money into this race. I’m personally unconvinced that’s wise strategy. What if that $50 million were being used instead to bolster party organizations in many relatively weak areas, rather than going for a victory that’s more symbolic than anything else? ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/115 "2017-06-20T18:52:34Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > He’s technically wrong, but his point is valid. Democrats have outspent Republicans by over 3-1 in that race, and the race has set records for spending in a House race. Both of these are unlikely to be replicated nationwide. > [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > Even if that’s not exact, the overall point may be valid: Dems have put a huge amount of money into this race. Ossoff’s campaign has outraised Handel by a lot. A large proportion of it is small donors. That’s not party decision-making. It’s a bunch of individual decisions. But Handel’s campaign has gotten about 70% of outside spending. That is, largely, decisions made by rich people. When you put it all together, Ossoff is probably outspending Handel, but it’s close. And while the GOP spending can be regarded as a tactical choice, that’s far less true of Ossoff, who has benefited from a bunch of out-of-state liberals wanting to deal a blow to Trump. That latter effect is certainly unsustainable. But I think it’s wrong to characterize it as either a strategic choice or some kind of huge strategic advantage in the race. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/116 "2017-06-20T18:53:35Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > Is it? I’m finding stuff saying that the race is going to be about $60 million, and that pro-Ossoff forces have outspent Handel forces by about 5-1, which would be very close to $50 million. > > Even if that’s not exact, the overall point may be valid: Dems have put a huge amount of money into this race. > > I’m personally unconvinced that’s wise strategy. What if that $50 million were being used instead to bolster party organizations in many relatively weak areas, rather than going for a victory that’s more symbolic than anything else? The flip side of that argument is that winning begets winning. If Ossoff pulls this off, the Democrats nationwide will be pumped up and energized, and might pull in a lot more in added funds than whatever they spend on this race. So you might get all the money back and then some, plus the added confidence and momentum. OTOH, if you lose, then it’s a bummer, and the emphasis on the race could have the opposite effect. So it’s a gamble. But in any event, I think your premise - that the money spent on Ossoff was available to be spend any which way, and the only question is the wisest way to allocate it - may be false. It’s likely that the excitement of the race itself is what pulled in most of the money. And beyond that, the people making the decisions about spending the money have their hands tied to an extent. Much of the base is focused on symbolic races of this sort, and they can’t let them pass by in favor of quiet party-building. > [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > You two are both analyzing this from a pre-2010 perspective. Campaigns are no longer the biggest spenders in races. Outside money is. > > Ossoff’s campaign has outraised Handel by a lot. A large proportion of it is small donors. That’s not party decision-making. It’s a bunch of individual decisions. But Handel’s campaign has gotten about 70% of outside spending. That is, largely, decisions made by rich people. > > When you put it all together, Ossoff is probably outspending Handel, but it’s close. And while the GOP spending can be regarded as a tactical choice, that’s far less true of Ossoff, who has benefited from a bunch of out-of-state liberals wanting to deal a blow to Trump. > > That latter effect is certainly unsustainable. But I think it’s wrong to characterize it as either a strategic choice or some kind of huge strategic advantage in the race. I disagree with your first sentence, and I agree with much of the rest of your post. My entire point (in agreeing with HD) is that it’s largely unsustainable, which you seem to agree with. And if it’s unsustainable, then it’s not a good predictor of future races. ---
**Author:** ![ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chockfullofheadygoodness/32/511_2.png) [@ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ChockFullOfHeadyGoodness)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/117 "2017-06-20T18:54:03Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I’m curious if there’s ever been a Republican Speaker of the House (or minority leader) that was similarly polarizing? Has anyone from the GOP been such a focal point for attacks, to the extent that he regularly appeared in attack ads for other congressional candidates’ opponents? Does the name Newt Gingrich ring a bell? Hint: Represented the district that is the subject of this thread. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/118 "2017-06-20T19:02:31Z")
Ossoff: $23.6M campaign + $7.6M outside spending = 31.2M Handel: $4.5M campaign + $18.2M outside spending = 22.6M So Ossoff outspent Handel by documented spending by about 9M. Of course, there’s some amount of spending that won’t get included here by groups not required to disclose. But we’re not talking about 5-1 or 3-1 ratios. And the point is that the strategic decisionmaking is really about the outside spending, not the campaign donations. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/119 "2017-06-20T19:05:30Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > The only way I know how my district leans is by looking at voting results. Okay, let’s do that. This district has been in Republican hands for 30 years, and has voted for Republican presidents since 2000. It is decidedly Republican. If we think the election is going to flip a different way today, then we have to look for other cues that things are changing, like cultural or environmental cues. I’m just saying I don’t see any cues indicating a dramatic change in the electorate. Democratic support is more visible than it has been, but that’s only in areas that were blue/purple anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/120 "2017-06-20T19:08:29Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Ossoff: $23.6M campaign + $7.6M outside spending = 31.2M > Handel: $4.5M campaign + $18.2M outside spending = 22.6M > > So Ossoff outspent Handel by documented spending by about 9M. Of course, there’s some amount of spending that won’t get included here by groups not required to disclose. > > But we’re not talking about 5-1 or 3-1 ratios. And the point is that the strategic decisionmaking is really about the outside spending, not the campaign donations. 5+2=6. Accept it! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575.md?page=7)