# GA special election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 28, 2017, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575 "2017-05-28T02:22:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/141 "2017-06-21T01:44:03Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Do I ever! > > An aggregate summary: I have had $3350 in action in political prediction bets since 2008. Counting the Ossoff election as a done deal, I will have won $9890 – that is, I have $9890 more than I started with. That’s not retirement money, I grant. But it’s fair to call it consistent winning. > > This does not include non-monetary bets (“If you lose, you have to keep a humiliating sig for six months,” type stakes.) And it does not include non-political bets. > > Notably, it includes plenty of bets in favor of propositions I don’t personally favor. That is, I don’t in the least shy away from wagering “Yes,” on an outcome I strongly disfavor. 'Grats on your GA-06 win. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/142 "2017-06-21T01:58:19Z")
Handel’s got this. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Tooth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c67d28/32.png) [@The\_Tooth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Tooth)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/143 "2017-06-21T01:59:53Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > Oh, please. Literally no one is going to suffer because of the outcome of an election for one Representative out of 435. It’s possible I misunderstand her role. I assumed that since she said gay people shouldn’t be able to adopt kids in the great state of Georgia because Jesus, she will have some say in the matter. And others relevant to the people of the great state of Georgia. No need to be snippy. ---
**Author:** ![D\_Anconia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@D\_Anconia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D_Anconia)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/144 "2017-06-21T02:01:57Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > It’s a good thing that “in the meantime” is a phrase with meaning, innit? It’s quite possible I misunderstood what Ms. or Mr. Tooth was trying to say. Under which Republican are people going to suffer, “in the meantime”? ---
**Author:** ![Okrahoma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/90db22/32.png) [@Okrahoma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Okrahoma)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/145 "2017-06-21T02:02:08Z")
> [@The\_Tooth](#): > > It’s possible I misunderstand her role. I assumed that since she said gay people shouldn’t be able to adopt kids in the great state of Georgia because Jesus, she will have some say in the matter. Since when do Congress critters have a “say” in local state laws? ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/146 "2017-06-21T02:10:20Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I just took my PredictIt winnings from Gianforte’s victory and bought HANDEL.GA06.2017 shares at 42 cents. > > That is: I predict, with not just a voice but real world money, that Handel beats Ossuff. And: CNN projects Republican Karen Handel wins the special Congressional election in the Georgia 6th, beating Democrat Jon Ossoff. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/147 "2017-06-21T02:11:48Z")
> [@D\_Anconia](#): > > It’s quite possible I misunderstood what Ms. or Mr. Tooth was trying to say. Under which Republican are people going to suffer, “in the meantime”? :smack: Looks like I misunderstood originally. I thought he was referring to Trump, didn’t realize he was talking about Handel. My apologies. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/148 "2017-06-21T02:17:01Z")
As I predicted, both races went to the Republican candidates. Archie Parnell managed a pretty good showing (indicative, I think, of just how bad a candidate Ralph Norman was; they started running ads around here where the point was to vote Republican, with almost no mention of his name). But, in the end run, it was not enough, and never was going to be enough. Same in Georgia. When Democrats actually win an election they weren’t supposed to win, then they can start making claims about progress, and how well they are doing. ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/149 "2017-06-21T02:30:53Z")
Thank you for your kind permission. I’ll spread the word. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/150 "2017-06-21T02:38:17Z")
> [@DSYoungEsq](#): > > When Democrats actually win an election they weren’t supposed to win, then they can start making claims about progress, and how well they are doing. This seems needlessly pessimistic. Democrats shouldn’t crow about how well they’re doing, but they also shouldn’t be too disheartened by these results. Once more: these were safe enough seats that Republicans left them to be cabinet members, confident it wouldn’t affect the House. The fact that that was true is less interesting than the degree to which the races were competitive. In 2018, there are going to be a lot more races up for grabs, and they’re going to be a lot more competitive. My hope is that the Democratic party looks at the ground they’ve gained in strongly conservative districts, and they go for a 50-state, 435-district campaign in 2018. Make Republicans fight for every seat; make as little as possible be safe for them. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/151 "2017-06-21T02:48:04Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > Can we just retire this line of thinking already? Losing a scattering of national elections by a slimmer-than-expected margin doesn’t mean jack. It means that the strategy of hoping for popular backlash hasn’t yielded any useful results in a useful timeframe. It will be a long slow slog back out of the wilderness. Sorry for the rant, I’m just tired of seeing progressive energy expressed in ways that seem wasteful and ineffective to me. > > I voted for Ossoff and I hope he wins, but it’s frustrating that this inexperienced nobody has become a standard-bearer for “The Resistance”. Who’s the next random dude we throw our weight behind when he gets defeated? Well I disagree and I’m not really sure what you’re upset about. If anyone expected Republicans to lose districts they’ve held onto for decades, then they’re daydreaming. But the fact that Republicans had to devote a lot of energy and money to hold onto seats they really shouldn’t have lost a wink of sleep over indicates there’s an opportunity for Democrats. It’s not just about notching meaningless moral victories either. One of my biggest complaints, and indeed I think one of the biggest reasons why Democrats have lost power over the last 20-30 years, is that they’ve become a party of the multicultural city. They’ve abandoned flyover country. They won’t even visit. That’s an infection that spread to areas that they should have won, and that tendency is one HUGE reason why they lost in 2016. But they were losing before that as a party long before Hillary shockingly lost to Donald Trump last year. Yeah, Ossoff lost this race – I expected him to. But, he was highly competitive in a congressional race in a reliably republican district. If we have more of that, I don’t even care if Donald Trump makes it to 2020 and hands over the re-election to Mike Pence. The real underlying weakness of the Democratic party has been a tendency to give up the white vote on the assumption that the minority and white academia was going to be a powerful enough demographic trend to defeat republicans. It didn’t work out that way but now they’re actually visiting white suburban and rural America again. And they’re _almost_ winning. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/152 "2017-06-21T02:48:59Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > In 2018, there are going to be a lot more races up for grabs, and they’re going to be a lot more competitive. I don’t think there are as many competitive Republican-held House districts as you imagine. But by all means, I support and endorse the Democrat 50-state strategy. Don’t focus your time and money anywhere, spread the wealth around. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/153 "2017-06-21T02:51:56Z")
> [@DSYoungEsq](#): > > As I predicted, both races went to the Republican candidates. Archie Parnell managed a pretty good showing (indicative, I think, of just how bad a candidate Ralph Norman was; they started running ads around here where the point was to vote Republican, with almost no mention of his name). But, in the end run, it was not enough, and never was going to be enough. Same in Georgia. > > When Democrats actually win an election they weren’t supposed to win, then they can start making claims about progress, and how well they are doing. GOP districts won by the Republican candidate in 2016 by an average margin of around 20% or more are being won now by 3-7% over the last few contests. I wonder what happens in districts that Republicans won by, say, less than 10%. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 2:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/154 "2017-06-21T02:54:17Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I don’t think there are as many competitive Republican-held House districts as you imagine. > > But by all means, I support and endorse the Democrat 50-state strategy. Don’t focus your time and money anywhere, spread the wealth around. Speaking as a Dem, the only possible negative I see tonight besides a loss (which was expected) is the internal debate that occurs within the party. No doubt, Bernie Bros and West Coast Lefties will be saying Ossoff should have run harder to the left. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/155 "2017-06-21T02:56:20Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I wonder what happens in districts that Republicans won by, say, less than 10%. Let’s hypothesize that Republicans lose those. How many of them are out there? ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/156 "2017-06-21T03:02:59Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I don’t think there are as many competitive Republican-held House districts as you imagine. What you think has as little to do with it as imagination has to do with it: [I write what I write based on analysis](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-special-election-in-georgia-can-and-cant-tell-us-about-the-midterms/): > [@Harry Enten](#): > > So at first glance, there are a lot of districts that would seem like easier pick-up opportunities for Democrats before you get to Georgia 6 — there are 47 Republican-held House seats that lean more Democratic. If Ossoff loses, Democrats might say, “Hey, this was a really red district; we don’t need to march this far into GOP territory to take back the House.” > > That’s true strictly in terms of the political lean of each district, but Ossoff is running for an open seat. Many of those other 47 Republican-held districts will have incumbents running in them. Although the advantage incumbents have in House elections isn’t as large as it was 30 or 40 years ago, it is still substantial. A model I ran on the 2016 results suggests that, once you take into account the weighted presidential vote of a district, the incumbent advantage is somewhere between 10 and 132 percentage points. That’s why Georgia 6 — despite its 9.5-point GOP lean — still makes for a decent national bellwether. > > But pay attention to the margin in Georgia 6 as much as to who wins. A tight Ossoff win would be consistent with an anti-Trump national mood, but it would also be consistent with a political environment in which many vulnerable Republican incumbents could survive. I’d love to see a blowout next year. This election doesn’t point to one–but it does point to a general move toward Democratic candidates. I also suspect that the upcoming vote on AHCA is going to open some eyes, but that’s another discussion :). ---
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/157 "2017-06-21T03:03:57Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Speaking as a Dem, the only possible negative I see tonight besides a loss (which was expected) is the internal debate that occurs within the party. No doubt, Bernie Bros and West Coast Lefties will be saying Ossoff should have run harder to the left. Perhaps the Dems have lost an opportunity by not trying a variety of approaches. Consider it an experiment and use it to gather data to help decide whether running further to the left would be likely to pay off. I know not every district is the same, but when its such an uphill battle perhaps the better use of resources would be to try a new approach and experiment a bit. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/158 "2017-06-21T03:04:03Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Are you saying the Republicans will still control the House after 2018? I’m certainly not willing to make a prediction at this time. I am. I’m willing to concede all the “moral victories” to the Democrats, but I confidently predict that the Speaker of the House will be a Republican in the next Congress. ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/159 "2017-06-21T03:07:00Z")
I’m disappointed, but not surprised. ---
**Author:** ![davidm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidm/32/225_2.png) [@davidm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davidm)\ **Post date:** [June 21, 2017, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575/160 "2017-06-21T03:11:18Z")
> [@alphaboi867](#): > > I’m disappointed, but not surprised. I pretty much figured that I’d be disappointed if I hoped for anything different. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ga-special-election/787575.md?page=9)