# Game: Deal or No Deal Tourney **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [February 13, 2010, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-deal-or-no-deal-tourney/528819 "2010-02-13T04:36:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 18\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![MentalGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/439d5e/32.png) [@MentalGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MentalGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2010, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-deal-or-no-deal-tourney/528819/141 "2010-04-24T18:05:16Z")
> [@MentalGuy](#): > > Once I have received a valid PM from all four players, we will proceed to the third phase of round 8. Obviously, this should have been phrased “from all the necessary players”, since some players may have already accepted a deal. As you can probably tell, I just copy and paste, then change the relevant parts. I forgot to change that. ---
**Author:** ![MentalGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/439d5e/32.png) [@MentalGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MentalGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2010, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-deal-or-no-deal-tourney/528819/142 "2010-04-25T02:39:54Z")
I have heard from all the necessary participants for the second offer of round 8. Since at least one player has not accepted a deal we will continue with round 8. The next 4 cases open are as follows: Case 26, $50; Case 2, $200000; Case 18, $400; Case 19, $750 This leaves the following values in play: .01 1 100 300 500 1000 10000 50000 300000 400000 500000 The offer from the bank is $78000. Please send me a PM saying “Deal” or “No Deal” before 10:00 PM CST on Monday, April 26. Once I have received a valid PM from all the necessary players, we will proceed to the fourth phase of round 8. I would appreciate it if you would put “Round 8 Offer 3” in the title of your PM. There will be 3 cases open in the next phase. Previous offers: $85000 $66000 ---
**Author:** ![MentalGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/439d5e/32.png) [@MentalGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MentalGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2010, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-deal-or-no-deal-tourney/528819/143 "2010-04-26T14:14:33Z")
I have heard from all the necessary participants for the third offer of round 8. Since at least one player has not accepted a deal we will continue with round 8. The next 3 cases open are as follows: Case 4, $100; Case 23, $500000; Case 22, $300 This leaves the following values in play: .01 1 500 1000 10000 50000 300000 400000 The offer from the bank is $68000. Please send me a PM saying “Deal” or “No Deal” before 10:00 AM CST on Wednesday, April 28. Once I have received a valid PM from all the necessary players, we will proceed to the fifth phase of round 8. I would appreciate it if you would put “Round 8 Offer 4” in the title of your PM. There will be 2 cases open in the next phase. Previous offers: $85000 $66000 $78000 ---
**Author:** ![MentalGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/439d5e/32.png) [@MentalGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MentalGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2010, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-deal-or-no-deal-tourney/528819/144 "2010-04-26T16:39:44Z")
I have heard from all the necessary participants for the fourth offer of round 8. Since at least one player has not accepted a deal we will continue with round 8. The next 2 cases open are as follows: Case 8, $1; Case 20, $1000 This leaves the following values in play: .01 500 10000 50000 300000 400000 The offer from the bank is $105000. Please send me a PM saying “Deal” or “No Deal” before 12:00 Noon CST on Wednesday, April 28. Once I have received a valid PM from all the necessary players, we will proceed to the sixth phase of round 8. I would appreciate it if you would put “Round 8 Offer 5” in the title of your PM. There will be 1 cases open in all remaining phases. Previous offers: $85000 $66000 $78000 $68000 ---
**Author:** ![MentalGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/439d5e/32.png) [@MentalGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MentalGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2010, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-deal-or-no-deal-tourney/528819/145 "2010-04-27T03:00:11Z")
I have heard from all the necessary participants for the fifth offer of round 8. Since at least one player has not accepted a deal we will continue with round 8. The next case opened is as follows: Case 5, $.01 This leaves the following values in play: 500 10000 50000 300000 400000 The offer from the bank is $125000. Please send me a PM saying “Deal” or “No Deal” before 10:00 PM CST on Wednesday, April 28. Once I have received a valid PM from all the necessary players, we will proceed to the seventh phase of round 8. I would appreciate it if you would put “Round 8 Offer 6” in the title of your PM. There will be 1 cases open in all remaining phases. Previous offers: $85000 $66000 $78000 $68000 $105000 ---
**Author:** ![MentalGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/439d5e/32.png) [@MentalGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MentalGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2010, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-deal-or-no-deal-tourney/528819/146 "2010-04-28T01:41:28Z")
I have heard from all the necessary participants for the sixth offer of round 8. Since at least one player has not accepted a deal we will continue with round 8. The next case opened is as follows: Case 3, $400000 This leaves the following values in play: 500 10000 50000 300000 The offer from the bank is $80000. Please send me a PM saying “Deal” or “No Deal” before 9:00 PM CST on Thursday, April 29. Once I have received a valid PM from all the necessary players, we will proceed to the eighth phase of round 8. I would appreciate it if you would put “Round 8 Offer 7” in the title of your PM. There will be 1 cases open in all remaining phases. Previous offers: $85000 $66000 $78000 $68000 $105000 $125000 ---
**Author:** ![MentalGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/439d5e/32.png) [@MentalGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MentalGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2010, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-deal-or-no-deal-tourney/528819/147 "2010-04-28T21:33:35Z")
I have heard from all the necessary participants for the seventh offer of round 8. Since at least one player has not accepted a deal we will continue with round 8. The next case opened is as follows: Case 24, $300000 This leaves the following values in play: 500 10000 50000 The offer from the bank is $18000. Please send me a PM saying “Deal” or “No Deal” before 5:00 PM CST on Friday, April 30. Once I have received a valid PM from all the necessary players, we will proceed to the final phase of round 8. I would appreciate it if you would put “Round 8 Offer 8” in the title of your PM. There will be 1 cases open in all remaining phases. Previous offers: $85000 $66000 $78000 $68000 $105000 $125000 $80000 ---
**Author:** ![MentalGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/439d5e/32.png) [@MentalGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MentalGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2010, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-deal-or-no-deal-tourney/528819/148 "2010-04-29T04:18:22Z")
The game has ended with everyone accepting a deal in Round 8. The first offer for $85000 was not accepted. The second offer for $66000 was accepted by Mahaloth. The third offer for $78000 was not accepted. The fourth offer for $68000 was not accepted. The fifth offer for $105000 was not accepted. The sixth offer for $125000 was accepted by Larry Borgia. The seventh offer for $80000 was not accepted. The eighth offer for $18000 was accepted by Biotop and Taber ending the round. If play had continued the next case open would have been Case 15 for $50000 and the final offer would have been $5000. Case 1 contained $10000 and the other remaining case was Case 9 which held $500. So the final standings are: 1. Larry Borgia $353500 2. Mahaloth $329010 3. Biotop $261600 4. Taber $219860 So, Larry Borgia is our Deal or No Deal Tourney winner. Congratulations. Thanks to everyone for playing. It is a bit late now, so I will comment on the game tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2010, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-deal-or-no-deal-tourney/528819/149 "2010-04-29T04:20:13Z")
Congrats to **Larry**! ---
**Author:** ![Taber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ac91a4/32.png) [@Taber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Taber)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2010, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-deal-or-no-deal-tourney/528819/150 "2010-04-29T05:13:47Z")
Heh, when I saw the 125,000 offer, I looked where I’d be if everyone took the 85k (which I’m kinda surprised no one did). I saw I’d be in 3rd, very close to second. Funnily enough, if I had taken it, I’d be in 3rd, very close to second, even though my assumption was very wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Biotop](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/biotop/32/321_2.png) [@Biotop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Biotop)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2010, 5:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-deal-or-no-deal-tourney/528819/151 "2010-04-29T05:43:36Z")
Congrats to\*\* Larry\*\* indeed! That last round was tough. Thanks to **MentalGuy** for the fun! ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2010, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-deal-or-no-deal-tourney/528819/152 "2010-04-29T13:17:34Z")
Ah, I knew it. I was crossing my fingers after taking the deal I took. I hoped bigger cases would be opened and Borgia would miss out. Good game! I’m up for it again if others are. Mental, thanks for the game. ---
**Author:** ![MentalGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/439d5e/32.png) [@MentalGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MentalGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2010, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-deal-or-no-deal-tourney/528819/153 "2010-04-29T16:24:46Z")
I am glad players enjoyed the game. I was afraid it would get started, then everyone would just quit playing. I may do this again sometime in the future , but it will be awhile. I have another game that I want to try first(a sort of iterated Friend or Foe). Of course, if someone else wanted to run this, that would be good. Those of you who sent what you were thinking with your responses, I appreciate it. That was interesting. Especially Leaper, who would analyze the situation, then almost always come to the same conclusion - that he(?) should go one more offer. In the second offer of round 3 when there was some surprise that the offer did not drop, I was surprised by the reaction since the average value of the cases remaining actually went up slightly. notfrommensa was correct that the average values of the cases in the first offer for round 4 was slightly higher than for the first offer of round 3, but I didn’t really go and check my offers against one another. I just tried to pick a number that was a risk either way for the players. I would appreciate any suggestions for things that might be done differently to improve the game. ---
**Author:** ![notfrommensa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f14d63/32.png) [@notfrommensa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/notfrommensa)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2010, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-deal-or-no-deal-tourney/528819/154 "2010-04-29T17:42:37Z")
MG, Thanks for the game, and I enjoyed reading your post game comments. So I gather that you did not have a “formula” to make the offers? I have never taken time to figure out the bank offers on DoND as I never watched the show that often. But I do know that the offers were always lower than the expected value (mean) of the remaining cases. And the offer would get closer to the EV as the # of cases remaining got smaller and smaller. I figured the algorithm of the bank offer has something to do with EV and the median value. The median is (almost?) always smaller than the mean. ---
**Author:** ![MentalGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/439d5e/32.png) [@MentalGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MentalGuy)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2010, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-deal-or-no-deal-tourney/528819/155 "2010-04-29T18:13:19Z")
> [@notfrommensa](#): > > MG, Thanks for the game, and I enjoyed reading your post game comments. > > So I gather that you did not have a “formula” to make the offers? > > I have never taken time to figure out the bank offers on DoND as I never watched the show that often. > > But I do know that the offers were always lower than the expected value (mean) of the remaining cases. And the offer would get closer to the EV as the # of cases remaining got smaller and smaller. > > I figured the algorithm of the bank offer has something to do with EV and the median value. The median is (almost?) always smaller than the mean. No, I did not have a formula. I did calculate the mean value of the remaining cases and also looked at the median. I then tried to make an offer that meant there was a good chance the case would have a lesser value in it, but that you were giving up some expected value if you took the offer. I think the show seriously lowballs the offer early because they don’t really want contestants leaving after one or two offers, but then makes the offers more reasonable later to make for more dramatic choice decisions. Since I did not have the same consideration for ratings, my offers were more uniform, though the median does sometimes start getting close to the mean with fewer cases left. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [April 29, 2010, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-deal-or-no-deal-tourney/528819/156 "2010-04-29T18:41:14Z")
Mental, sign me up for any game you run. Friend or Foe could be sweet and I’m up for it. I was surprised at the early rounds, but I guess the cases getting opened were weird. ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2010, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-deal-or-no-deal-tourney/528819/157 "2010-04-30T00:22:29Z")
I would prefer my winnings in the form of a cashiers check. 🙂 I knew I needed an offer that was 35k more than any other offer. I was going to ride the game out till the end and hope for a big payout, but when I saw the 125,000 offer, I thought I’d take it, hoping that **Mahaloth** had either taken an earlier offer, and/or that the offers would go down. Fun game. It took me a couple of rounds to get into it, but the last round was exciting. Thanks, **Mental Guy**! ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [April 30, 2010, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-deal-or-no-deal-tourney/528819/158 "2010-04-30T00:30:45Z")
> [@Larry\_Borgia](#): > > I knew I needed an offer that was 35k more than any other offer. I was going to ride the game out till the end and hope for a big payout, but when I saw the 125,000 offer, I thought I’d take it, hoping that **Mahaloth** had either taken an earlier offer, and/or that the offers would go down. And I was hoping no offer would come more than ~$20,000 larger than the one I accepted. Once I saw the $125,000 offer, I figured you were still in the game and would take the deal and win. Well played. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-deal-or-no-deal-tourney/528819.md?page=7)