# \[GAME\]The Resistance - Mafia-Like Game **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [October 25, 2014, 12:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-the-resistance-mafia-like-game/702450 "2014-10-25T12:50:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![HookerChemical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/278dde/32.png) [@HookerChemical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HookerChemical)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2014, 5:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-the-resistance-mafia-like-game/702450/161 "2014-11-10T05:34:18Z")
> [@Terminus\_Est](#): > > Eh, now I’ve talked myself into rejecting my own team. **Mr Shine** never passed the smell test for me. I don’t think he’s a spy and I hope he’ll come up with a better team. It’s not bad to reject your own team. It’s a good way to sound out the opinion of others on other players. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2014, 9:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-the-resistance-mafia-like-game/702450/162 "2014-11-10T09:55:00Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > **Stanislaus** , I hope you’ll offer your opinion of the proposed team, now that Mr. Shine is off it. Of course! Johnny Bravo: Nominated the team that failed the first mission. Nevertheless, I’m inclined to trust him because a) he’s been an active poster who’s shared his thought process; b) his stated reasons for nominating his team suggest some careful thought about the best way to give us an advantage. As far as nominating the team goes, if he’d wanted to sabotage he could have nominated himself and only implicated one person. Terminus Est: Has posted mainly on three topics: his suspicion of HookerChemical, the importance of player order (not unrelated to the foregoing), and the composition of his team. He’s been relatively vocal, although probably would have been less so if he hadn’t been leader. One notable point was that he took Mr Shine off his team when I made my case against him. I was happy to see that happen, obviously and it suggests a team-playing mentality. So I’m slightly inclined to trust him based on that, but I may be feeling flattered so I’m not the best person to judge. sinjin: Another low volume poster, and a lot of that reminders of rules and mod-statements. I appreciate that he’s had family over, but I just don’t feel he’s shared enough to be trusted yet. septimus: A higher volume poster. One of the two to Reject. As it turns out the right decision. However, I can’t see how to choose between that being straight pro-Resistance play or, given that the mission was on course to being accepted, an opportunistic shot at winning some cred. (I speak as someone who plays super-Townie as Scum in Mafia, so I’m naturally cautious.) Contributions have been fairly high content. Not shy about saying who he trusts and who he doesn’t, which I think is a good trait. On the basis of that openness I’m more inclined to trust him than not (but again, he’s indicated he trust me a little, so I may be prone to reciprocating.) On the whole, I’ll still reject this team because I haven’t heard enough from sinjin. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2014, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-the-resistance-mafia-like-game/702450/163 "2014-11-10T13:11:11Z")
I find that I have little to say other than: - I am voting to support this team - I have no particularly effective strategy to decide what to do. - I think Texcat is the spy from the group, but I have no major proof. I actually am embarrassed to admit that I did not realize 1 “fail” vote on a mission is all it takes to sink the mission. I learned this in the “morning”, so to speak. I see it being extremely difficult for resistance to win. I have no clue what are some effective strategies to win this game. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2014, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-the-resistance-mafia-like-game/702450/164 "2014-11-10T13:35:32Z")
> [@MentalGuy](#): > > Johnny Bravo > Terminus Est > sinjin > septimus Okay, so here’s the nominated team. Obviously I know that I’m not a spy. I also know that there is at least one spy among the three picked from yesterday’s mission. I also ‘know’ that Hooker is a spy (obviously I don’t _know_ that, but I’m working from that assumption). That means that there are NO MORE than two spies in the following group: Terminus Est Mr Shine Sinjin Septimus Stanislaus Which means that if Terminus Est is town, and if I’m town, and if Hooker is a spy, then it’s even odds that this mission is all town. This game is much harder in forum-form than in real life. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2014, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-the-resistance-mafia-like-game/702450/165 "2014-11-10T14:06:08Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > . That means that there are NO MORE than two spies in the following group: > > Terminus Est > Mr Shine > Sinjin > Septimus > Stanislaus > > Which means that if Terminus Est is town, and if I’m town, and if Hooker is a spy, then it’s even odds that this mission is all town. I question your arithmetic. Assuming Terminus is town, then we’ve a 50-50 chance if {Mr Shine, Sinjin, Septimus, Stanislaus} has ONLY ONE Spy. If that set has TWO Spies, the random chance the mission will succeed is only 1 in 6. I know I’m town, But … For excellent reasons IMO, I’m going to proceed on the assumption that Johnny’s Round-1 team had TWO Spies. With both TexCat and Mahaloth supporting Terminus’ proposal, I now feel confident in urging REJECTION. ---
**Author:** ![Terminus\_Est](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terminus_est/32/3087_2.png) [@Terminus\_Est](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terminus_Est)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2014, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-the-resistance-mafia-like-game/702450/166 "2014-11-10T14:15:19Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > This game is much harder in forum-form than in real life. Yeah, the lack of physical tells is huge. I was once able to sniff out a spy who was sitting next to me IRL by the little twitch that he made during the spies’ getting-to-know-you phase. ---
**Author:** ![Stanislaus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stanislaus/32/3391_2.png) [@Stanislaus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stanislaus)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2014, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-the-resistance-mafia-like-game/702450/167 "2014-11-10T16:34:11Z")
Spies might let a mission succeed for the sake of cred, or they might flub the co-ordination if there’s more than one a mission. We can hardly rely on either, but it is possible for us to get a score on the board. But ultimately, we win by constructing teams that have a better chance of being spy-free than random picks. Which we do by exercising skill and judgement. Without twitches, blinks, flushed faces or hesitations to pick up on, it is unquestionably harder than in real life. But we can do it, just as we do it in Mafia. The more people contribute to discussion, the more we have to go on. E.g.: TexCat - what are your thoughts on the proposed team? Who are you most worried might be a spy? ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2014, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-the-resistance-mafia-like-game/702450/168 "2014-11-10T17:00:32Z")
I feel pretty good about JBravo and Terminus, and I’d like to think that Septimus is town just from his activity level. If this mission is accepted and fails, I would definitely pick Sinjin out as the spy. I didn’t really like her wishy-washy acceptance. But I’m still voting to accept it. Everybody has some suspicion on them at the moment but this team, I think, has a chance of being town. ---
**Author:** ![MentalGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/439d5e/32.png) [@MentalGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MentalGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2014, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-the-resistance-mafia-like-game/702450/169 "2014-11-10T23:07:35Z")
Here are the votes for Round 2 first proposed mission (aka Mission 2.1): Terminus Est - reject Storyteller - accept Johnny Bravo - accept Mr Shine - reject septimus - reject Mahaloth - reject HookerChemical - reject Stanislaus - reject sinjin - accept TexCat - accept The mission is rejected. The team that was rejected was: Johnny Bravo Terminus Est sinjin septimus Mr Shine needs to nominate a team of 4 player to go on a mission (mission 2.2). Mr Shine please PM your nomination before 5:00 pm central time tomorrow (November 11, 2014). ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2014, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-the-resistance-mafia-like-game/702450/170 "2014-11-10T23:27:55Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > For excellent reasons IMO, I’m going to proceed on the assumption that Johnny’s Round-1 team had TWO Spies. With both TexCat and Mahaloth supporting Terminus’ proposal, I now feel confident in urging REJECTION. Wait - WHY?!?!?! I don’t understand the evidence train here. ---
**Author:** ![HookerChemical](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/278dde/32.png) [@HookerChemical](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HookerChemical)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-the-resistance-mafia-like-game/702450/171 "2014-11-11T00:37:34Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > For excellent reasons IMO, I’m going to proceed on the assumption that Johnny’s Round-1 team had TWO Spies. With both TexCat and Mahaloth supporting Terminus’ proposal, I now feel confident in urging REJECTION. I’m very interested in the basis for this assumption as well. If we start from the basis that **Johnny Bravo** is a spy, it doesn’t make sense for him to construct a team with two spies. If we start from the assumption that he’s Resistance, he’d have to blindly pick two spies to get two in the team. That’s not unlikely (about 41% chance), but it’s less probable than only one spy (48%), and the single failure doesn’t suggest anything to the contrary. I’m happy the team was rejected and all, but I don’t get the reasoning at all. > [@Mahaloth](#): > > I find that I have little to say other than: > > - I am voting to support this team > [@MentalGuy](#): > > Here are the votes for Round 2 first proposed mission (aka Mission 2.1): > > Mahaloth - reject I’m happy the team was rejected and all, but I’m curious what changed. ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_Shine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr_shine/32/464_2.png) [@Mr\_Shine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr_Shine)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-the-resistance-mafia-like-game/702450/172 "2014-11-11T00:41:39Z")
Well mission 2.2 will definitely have me on it. I have a hunch **Terminus Est** is a good guy so he’s on board. I’m feeling leery towards \*\*HookerChemical, Johnny Bravo \*\*and **Mahaloth** so they’re definitely out. That leaves 2 of Story sept Stan sin Tex I’m still leaning towards hoping **Mahaloth** was the spy that upset the applecart of good apples and giving storyteller and texcat another shot. It’s bedtime for me now, so I’ll have a look at opinions in the morning. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-the-resistance-mafia-like-game/702450/173 "2014-11-11T00:54:58Z")
> [@Mr\_Shine](#): > > I have a hunch **Terminus Est** is a good guy so he’s on board. I’m feeling leery towards \*\*HookerChemical, Johnny Bravo \*\*and **Mahaloth** so they’re definitely out. Please explain why you think Terminus Est is Resistance and why you think the three you mentioned are Spies. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-the-resistance-mafia-like-game/702450/174 "2014-11-11T02:03:00Z")
> [@HookerChemical](#): > > I’m happy the team was rejected and all, but I’m curious what changed. I just changed my mind. I’m not sure why. I’m not sure I get the strategy in this game at all. It seems incredibly unlikely we’ll be able to figure out who are spies. ---
**Author:** ![TexCat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/texcat/32/9041_2.png) [@TexCat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TexCat)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-the-resistance-mafia-like-game/702450/175 "2014-11-11T02:31:16Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > I just changed my mind. I’m not sure why. > > I’m not sure I get the strategy in this game at all. It seems incredibly unlikely we’ll be able to figure out who are spies. I’ll say it again. We don’t have to find the spies, we need to have missions succeed. I don’t need to know whether it’s you or storyteller or both. > [@Mr\_Shine](#): > > Well mission 2.2 will definitely have me on it. I have a hunch **Terminus Est** is a good guy so he’s on board. I’m feeling leery towards \*\*HookerChemical, Johnny Bravo \*\*and **Mahaloth** so they’re definitely out. That leaves 2 of > > Story > sept > Stan > sin > Tex > > I’m still leaning towards hoping **Mahaloth** was the spy that upset the applecart of good apples and giving storyteller and texcat another shot. It’s bedtime for me now, so I’ll have a look at opinions in the morning. As noted by Hooker above, it doesn’t make sense for both mahaloth and JBravo to be spies. Also, as I previously said, I will reject storyteller teams. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-the-resistance-mafia-like-game/702450/176 "2014-11-11T02:34:59Z")
There are two independent and excellent reasons to assume there are two Spies in {Texcat, Storyteller, Mahaloth} [A] but first let me show what conclusions this leads to. JohnnyBravo, if Spy, would surely not put two Spies on his team, so, given the assumption, he is surely Town. The three in [A] all voted to accept Terminus’ team, despite that there was plenty of sentiment for rejection to give them cover. They must have liked that proposal, so there is one Spy in {Septimus, Terminal Est, Sinjin} \*\* (I know I’m Town, but include myself so others can adopt my template if they wish.) If Terminus is Spy, I doubt he’d pick another Spy also. A Townie Terminus might have accidentally included _two_ Spies but I know that didn’t happen. By elimination there is one Spy in {Mr Shine, Stanislaus, Hooker} [C] I feel strongly about the above. As for _which_ of the players in each group is the Spy, I’ve listed them above left-to-right in order of my guesstimated least-to-most likely to be Spy, but I’m much less sure of this. Since I now have a Townie feel for Mr Shine, his nomination now is our best chance to win this round. I strongly urge him to include Johnny Bravo and myself. I’d advise against Sinjin for the simple reason that it puts all our eggs in one basket. Sinjin will get his chance next; if we Reject both Me Shine’s and Sinjin’s teams we’re left with only two suspicious leaders to finish the round. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-the-resistance-mafia-like-game/702450/177 "2014-11-11T03:03:40Z")
I promised TWO excellent reasons to assume there are two Spies in group A. The first one will seem “metaphysical” and unconvincing, but I think it’s sound. First note that Town is extreme underdog in this game. The 10-player game is especially difficult(\*) for Town; and we got off to a very bad start. Not only did the first mission fail, but we got zero information during the mission voting. _We will need much luck to win this game._ There’s a principle I learned when I played Contract Bridge which applies to much more than Bridge, but I don’t know if it has a special name. Most simply: _If you need good luck, assume you’re getting it!_ Johnny gambled that he might get lucky and find TWO OR MORE Spies with his proposal (group “A”). We’re not going to win this game unless his gamble succeeded. (BTW, there might be THREE Spies in A instead of just two, but that possibility doesn’t affect my basic plan much.) (\* - This game still baffles me, and I have no idea if the 6-player version is better for the Spies than the 7-player version, etc. etc. BUT there is a simple thought experiment that demonstrates that the 10-player game is much better for Spies than the 9-player game. The 9-player game has 6 non-Spies just like the 10-player game, but only needs 5 votes to approve a mission. The schedule is the same as the 10-player game, which means that a Spy could stand up at the beginning of the 10-player game, announce he’s a Spy, promise to Accept every mission, and the game would transpose EXACTLY into the 9-player game. Assuming no Spy does so, they’re better off with the extra Spy in the 10-player game.) Note first of all that the a priori chance of two or more Spies in a trio (if Johnny is Town) is 41%, or 46% if the team is known to have at least one Spy. These are not small chances. (Mr Shine seems to assume that if Mahaloth is Spy, then Texcat and Story are cleared. No.) There is an argument that IF there were two Spies THEN they might have screwed themselves and done a Double-Fail. Valid point, but Double-Fail isn’t that likely if Spies are smart. If each spy Failed with probability 36% there would only be 13% chance of Double-Fail. There would be a 41% chance that the mission would Succeed, but I think Spies would be delighted with that outcome anyway. With no prior discussion, the Spies wouldn’t be able to agree on, say, a 36% mixed strategy. One might pick a chance much higher, the other much lower. _But if you work it out, that would be even better for the Spies._ The above analysis about Double-Fail assumes that the Spies do not attempt to communicate in-thread. In fact, _they’re likely to try to communicate and will leave evidence of the fact._ !!! … … That brings me to the 2nd excellent reason to assume that group A has TWO Spies … but I’ll let someone else post the Spoiler for that if they wish. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Bravo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_bravo/32/493_2.png) [@Johnny\_Bravo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Bravo)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-the-resistance-mafia-like-game/702450/178 "2014-11-11T05:03:03Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > … That brings me to the 2nd excellent reason to assume that group A has TWO Spies … but I’ll let someone else post the Spoiler for that if they wish. I’d really prefer that you just present evidence if you have it. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 6:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-the-resistance-mafia-like-game/702450/179 "2014-11-11T06:07:46Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > I have read up and I hope I understand the game. I see I have been nominated for the first mission, which is fine by me. I have nothing much to say other than I am a good guy and plan to make the mission succeed. > > There is not much else to be said at this point, folks. Accept this team and you have my vote for success. This post is pointless, especially the “you have my vote for success” _ **which has no purpose but to signal to a fellow Spy.** _ > [@Mahaloth](#): > > So if you nominate a team, please PM your team to Mental quickly so we don’t have to wait around. If he’s not a Spy, he knows nothing except that Johnny has made an odd proposal. Why the eagerness? > [@Mahaloth](#): > > This is fine, though completely random would have worked just as well. I think it is wise to accept this team because: > > 1. I know it has at least my vote to succeed. > > 2. I think spies are unlikely to reject this mission as it is the first one. If I’m wrong, at least I’ll know who the spies are. > > I know you all can’t know I’m on the side of good, but I do and we should proceed with this plan even if you, for some reason, suspect some of us on the team. > [@Mahaloth](#): > > I have no idea if he is a spy, but I think it was just a mistake. I think he knows perfectly well whether Hooker is a Spy. This post makes me suspect Hooker. > [@Mahaloth](#): > > Nope, I voted succeed and if it weren’t anti-game, I’d post my PM to show you. Again silly, but he really does have a “Success” PM to show. _Non-spies, however, don’t bother to send PMs._ Am I 100% certain that Mahaloth is a Spy along with either Story or TexCat? No. But if we make this assumption and follow the deductions I’ve laid out, we have a good chance of winning the game… I’ll bet that {Mr Shine, Johnny, Septimus} plus either Terminus or Stanislaus is better than even-money to be clean. If the assumption is wrong, our chances are very small whether we follow my plan or not. ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_Shine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr_shine/32/464_2.png) [@Mr\_Shine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr_Shine)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2014, 10:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-the-resistance-mafia-like-game/702450/180 "2014-11-11T10:39:37Z")
> [@Johnny\_Bravo](#): > > Please explain why you think Terminus Est is Resistance and why you think the three you mentioned are Spies. Flying blind really, but TE’s actions just seem authentic. You I was suspicious of when you failed to include yourself in the mission, Hooker because of the odd mistake over the number of spies, and Mahaloth because he deliberatly seemed to be going after Hooker, changing his rationale. This probably meands not both Mahaloth and Hooker, but may be a gambit by Mahaloth. To be honest I have no idea. I’ve sent in my official mission spec to MentalGuy now though: (me, TE, story and septimus) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-the-resistance-mafia-like-game/702450.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/game-the-resistance-mafia-like-game/702450.md?page=10)