# Gas prices - FMTT! **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [October 4, 2012, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gas-prices-fmtt/636751 "2012-10-04T23:02:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![kferr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/71e660/32.png) [@kferr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kferr)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2012, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gas-prices-fmtt/636751/21 "2012-10-07T14:47:23Z")
> [@Half\_Man\_Half\_Wit](#): > > Meanwhile, gas prices in Germany have reached $8.37/gallon… ☹ $8.80 for diesel in the UK. Same this week as last week so no plot required. ---
**Author:** ![Wednesday\_Evening](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b2d939/32.png) [@Wednesday\_Evening](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wednesday_Evening)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2012, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gas-prices-fmtt/636751/22 "2012-10-07T15:31:50Z")
Our gas prices have climbed to a record high. According to the [SLO Tribune article](http://www.sanluisobispo.com/2012/10/06/2253493/pain-at-the-pump-gas-price-jumps.html), the county average is $4.70 (CA central coast). According to the article, “Fuel analysts say a combination of factors are causing the rapid price run-up: Refinery and transmission problems exist, and the inventory of California’s cleaner-burning fuel is at its lowest point in more than a decade.” The article goes on to say that California prices should drop this week [keeping my fingers crossed]. I’m going to try **really** hard not to have to buy gas before then! When I filled up 9 days ago gas was $4.28. Now at the same station it’s $4.79. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_L.A](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnny_l.a/32/1084_2.png) [@Johnny\_L.A](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_L.A)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2012, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gas-prices-fmtt/636751/23 "2012-10-07T15:45:04Z")
AIUI, it has been known for years that we need more refining capacity. But people who live near proposed locations vote against them. Perhaps it’s NIMBY-ism, or perhaps they are genuinely concerned about the environment. Either way, the refineries don’t get built. They want no new refineries, and they also want cheap fuel. They can’t have it both ways. Of course there’s another wrinkle. The U.S. exports a lot of refined fuel. That fuel _could_ be kept here, which would serve to keep prices lower. But there’s more profit in exporting it. When I lived in L.A., I was jealous of the cheaper fuel in Washington. Since I live near the Canadian border, gas is more expensive than in other parts of the state. Still cheaper than California, though! We had our own ‘fuel shortage’ in recent months. The BP refinery at Cherry Point had a fire. It turns out that there is not easy (read: cheap) way to move fuel east-to-west, so while the middle of the country had reasonable prices that were declining, our prices were going up. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2012, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gas-prices-fmtt/636751/24 "2012-10-07T16:27:05Z")
Californian’s typically get screwed every time there’s a problem, regardless of where that problem is. Our fuel typically comes from Alaskan crude, yet even a small problem in the gulf causes prices to soar in CA. ---
**Author:** ![Yumblie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/76d3ee/32.png) [@Yumblie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yumblie)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2012, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gas-prices-fmtt/636751/25 "2012-10-07T16:45:27Z")
> [@gamerunknown](#): > > Surely if it were a Nazi plot prices would reach $9.99? Sounds more like a Herman Cain plot. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2012, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gas-prices-fmtt/636751/26 "2012-10-07T16:55:24Z")
Just wait. If the Republicans and Israel get their wish and we attack Iran, gas will easily reach $6 or $7 a gallon. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2012, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gas-prices-fmtt/636751/27 "2012-10-07T18:33:42Z")
> [@Chimera](#): > > Just wait. If the Republicans and Israel get their wish and we attack Iran, gas will easily reach $6 or $7 a gallon. Which would be great for Iran. I filled up last weekend, and am about empty. Not looking forward to my Monday visit to the gas station (location = NorCal). ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2012, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gas-prices-fmtt/636751/28 "2012-10-07T23:33:40Z")
> [@Half\_Man\_Half\_Wit](#): > > Meanwhile, gas prices in Germany have reached $8.37/gallon… ☹ Y’know, if they had managed to hold onto places with oil, like Norway, the Netherlands, and Romania, after The Late Unpleasantness, Germany wouldn’t have that problem. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![curlcoat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ea5d25/32.png) [@curlcoat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/curlcoat)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2012, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gas-prices-fmtt/636751/29 "2012-10-08T02:25:49Z")
> [@Chimera](#): > > Just wait. If the Republicans and Israel get their wish and we attack Iran, gas will easily reach $6 or $7 a gallon. It will anyway. I can’t believe I used to pass up stations with prices that were too high at $.29 a gallon… ---
**Author:** ![Gleena](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b3f665/32.png) [@Gleena](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gleena)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2012, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gas-prices-fmtt/636751/30 "2012-10-08T02:47:42Z")
Allowing for conversion from metric to Imperial, and AUD to USD, we’re at $5.42 a gallon in Australia. I was all set to neener and disparage your whinging crybabyness, then I discovered most of that cost is shipping. Without that it’d be cheaper here. [http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/facts/Weekly\_Petrol\_Prices\_Report.htm](http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/facts/Weekly_Petrol_Prices_Report.htm) Carry on. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc348/32.png) [@The\_Flying\_Dutchman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Flying_Dutchman)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2012, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gas-prices-fmtt/636751/31 "2012-10-08T04:00:05Z")
> [@Half\_Man\_Half\_Wit](#): > > Meanwhile, gas prices in Germany have reached $8.37/gallon… ☹ > [@kferr](#): > > $8.80 for diesel in the UK. Same this week as last week so no plot required. That’s what European socialism gets you. Before we got universal health care here in Canada, gas cost us 20 cents a (US)gallon. Back then we could afford to drink and drive. ---
**Author:** ![Jeff\_Lichtman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jeff_lichtman/32/1531_2.png) [@Jeff\_Lichtman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jeff_Lichtman)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2012, 6:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gas-prices-fmtt/636751/32 "2012-10-08T06:46:11Z")
> [@Omar\_Little](#): > > There’s plenty of refinery capacity in the rest of the country, but to get it to California, it has to be shipped there and that’s not free. Not only that, but California environmental law requires a different blend of gasoline from what is sold in the rest of the country. The only refineries that make this blend are in California itself. It would take a lot of time and money to retool refineries in other states to make California blend, and by the time they were done the shortage in California would probably be over. ---
**Author:** ![BigAppleBucky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigapplebucky/32/178_2.png) [@BigAppleBucky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigAppleBucky)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2012, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gas-prices-fmtt/636751/33 "2012-10-08T15:06:28Z")
> [@silenus](#): > > I know that there have been pipeline problems and refinery fires, but fuck me to tears. I just saw the price of regular go up $.30/gal in 9 hours. It was $4.23/gal when I drove to school, and $4.53/gal when I drove home! > > It’s all a Republican plot, I’m sure of it. 😛 Has Enron been reborn. Under a new name, perhaps? ---
**Author:** ![cards](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ecd19e/32.png) [@cards](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cards)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2012, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gas-prices-fmtt/636751/34 "2012-10-08T17:26:53Z")
> [@gamerunknown](#): > > Surely if it were a Nazi plot prices would reach $9.99? No, it would be $8.88 ---
**Author:** ![silenus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/silenus/32/166_2.png) [@silenus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/silenus)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2012, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gas-prices-fmtt/636751/35 "2012-10-08T17:48:55Z")
> [@Jeff\_Lichtman](#): > > Not only that, but California environmental law requires a different blend of gasoline from what is sold in the rest of the country. The only refineries that make this blend are in California itself. It would take a lot of time and money to retool refineries in other states to make California blend, and by the time they were done the shortage in California would probably be over. Governor Brown just ordered winter-blend to be sold immediately, instead of after Oct. 31. That should start bringing the prices down a bit. ---
**Author:** ![Darth\_Panda](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ee7513/32.png) [@Darth\_Panda](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darth_Panda)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2012, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gas-prices-fmtt/636751/36 "2012-10-08T17:50:04Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I sometimes think the oil companies are just looking for excuses to raise oil prices. A border dispute between Turkey and Syria? So what? Neither is a major oil producer. Thailand produces more oil than Syria. And _Japan_ produces more than twice as much oil as Turkey. Oil companies don’t determine oil prices, oil traders do. Of course, oil companies do employ oil traders, but they represent a small segment of the trading community. The traders care about the conflcit because it increases the probability of regional conflict and that may push them beyond risk limits or represent a potential gain or loss on a forward trade. It’s all about a probabilsitic view on distributions of future possibilities of what the spot prices will look like. Any sign of instability will increase the probability that future spot prices will be higher than the forward strip indictaes. That cuases a shift in the supply and demand of futures contracts and futures derivatives at different price points. Those futures contracts then drive current spot prices based on carry parity where you can arbitrage the forward contracts to buy now and deliver later (with financial settlement, of course, not actual delivery). So, the current spot price will get pushed up because if it didn’t there would be free money in the spot purchase, carry forward, and future sale play. All of this matters because most of the refineries and others hedge volume more strongly than they hedge price, so a lot of their contracted deliveries will be paid at current spot price as it’s accepted, and so the incremental cost of production is typically driven to the current spot. Of course, even if the deliveries were at a set price, and not spot, you would still value it at market because of the ability to resell the contract at spot (or, more likely, prompt month pricing). ---
**Author:** ![Omar\_Little](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omar_little/32/269_2.png) [@Omar\_Little](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omar_Little)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2012, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gas-prices-fmtt/636751/37 "2012-10-08T17:51:55Z")
> [@Jeff\_Lichtman](#): > > Not only that, but California environmental law requires a different blend of gasoline from what is sold in the rest of the country. The only refineries that make this blend are in California itself. It would take a lot of time and money to retool refineries in other states to make California blend, and by the time they were done the shortage in California would probably be over. I think what you are referring to is the winter blend vs. summer blend. It’s not a different formulation of gasoline for California. California is still operating under summer blend gasoline, which has less vapor. Under California law, winter blend cannot be sold until the end October, while the rest of the country switched to winter blend gasoline, at the end of September. This means that currently there is less summer blend gasoline that could be brought into California and comply with the current law. Governor Brown recently ordered the environment agency in California to permit winter blend gasoline to be sold in California before the end of October regulation. This will allow for more gasoline to be brought in from out of state. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2012, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gas-prices-fmtt/636751/38 "2012-10-08T20:20:52Z")
I’ve noticed that Chevron has stopped their incessant advertising about how much they love us and how they only spend money to put it in our economy. That’s a small silver lining, but something. (A fire in a Chevron refinery in NorCal was the first nail in our gas coffin.) As for me, I drive a Prius and I filled it up just before the spike. I’ve been getting about 50 mpg on 880, and with any luck I should be able to last until prices start dropping thanks to going to the winter blend. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2012, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gas-prices-fmtt/636751/39 "2012-10-08T20:30:55Z")
Not to be smug or anything, but I bought gas this morning for $3.48/gallon…and it wasn’t at one of the cheaper places, just the regular station on my way to work. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2012, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gas-prices-fmtt/636751/40 "2012-10-08T20:56:44Z")
> [@Darth\_Panda](#): > > Oil companies don’t determine oil prices, oil traders do. Companies that trade in oil aren’t oil companies? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gas-prices-fmtt/636751.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gas-prices-fmtt/636751.md?page=3)