# Gavrilo Princip and the Archduke **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 21, 2014, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gavrilo-princip-and-the-archduke/691306 "2014-06-21T17:29:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gavrilo-princip-and-the-archduke/691306/21 "2014-06-24T14:29:17Z")
> [@Claverhouse](#): > > The Reich wasn’t particularly unstable: the Hapsburgs had been around for most of the previous 1000 years — which is a longer run than most countries will have. The rising nationalisms threatened as ever, but if adroit and generally benevolent the imperial system wasn’t really ruthless enough to satisfy the world’s growing longing for more ruthlessness as evidenced in the 20th century, and at that time, diplomacy was mainly geared to getting one up on the main rivals. The Archduke may have been a force for modernization, and personally was most sympathetic to the South Slavs’ desire for greater autonomy — more so than General Conrad, in particular. In military terms, however . . . I recall one German diplomat or officer reported to the Kaiser, “Sire, we are allied with a corpse!” ---
**Author:** ![Claverhouse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/13edae/32.png) [@Claverhouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Claverhouse)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gavrilo-princip-and-the-archduke/691306/22 "2014-06-24T16:19:45Z")
And before that, one of Otto’s most exquisite _bon mots_: When asked what the Court of Vienna would do next, in response to some situation, he thought for a moment… _“What’s the silliest thing you can think of ?”_ ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gavrilo-princip-and-the-archduke/691306/23 "2014-06-24T16:33:15Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > Where were the diplomats who might have been able to fend off the Great War that this caused? Or was the Austria-Hungarian empire just too big and unstable, was the war inevitable, one way or another? If you are really interested in this stuff I highly recommend Dan Carlin’s podcast [Blueprint for Armageddon](http://podbay.fm/show/173001861/e/1383117135?autostart=1). This first episode (three hours long and only part one of several podcasts) explores this particular question of yours. It really is worth a listen (as are his other episodes on other historical topics). Great stuff for a commute or car trip. The short answer to your question is it was a sort of perfect storm of global-political circumstances/treaties and there were really no capable diplomats left (the Kaiser was a singularly unimpressive person in a time when you needed the skills of Otto von Bismarck). ---
**Author:** ![Fuji](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a9a28c/32.png) [@Fuji](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuji)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gavrilo-princip-and-the-archduke/691306/24 "2014-06-24T17:02:50Z")
> [@Jackmannii](#): > > The overwhelming onus has to fall on Austria-Hungary (for doing everything it could to precipitate a war to crush the Serbs once and for all) and Germany (also kicking off the war by invading a neutral country on the way to a conflict it thought would strengthen its dominance of Europe). Any blame attaching to Allied nations is small by comparison. Oh, really? :dubious: Seems to me that the country most responsible for turning a regional war (of which there had already been one in each of the past two years) into a global conflict was Russia. They had about as much business getting in Austria-Hungary’s face as the Habsburgs would have had for getting in Russia’s about matters in the Caucasus or Central Asia, i.e. none. Nobody forced Russia to be the “Defenders of Eastern Orthodoxy and All Slavs Everywhere”. That’s a mantle they took upon themselves. Also, while Allied governments (aside from Russia, of course) may have worked harder than their Central Power counterparts to avert the coming war, there was certainly no shortage of popular bloodlust in Britain and France (and to a lesser degree, Italy). You may be tired of “revsisionist history”. I’m tired of blaming the Germans and Austrians for everything, and for not holding the Russians to account. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gavrilo-princip-and-the-archduke/691306/25 "2014-06-24T17:04:00Z")
> [@Batistuta](#): > > As I understand it, the war was bound to happen one way or another. The system of alliances, conflicting nationalism throughout Europe, militarisation… all that was needed was a spark to ignite the fire. Better diplomacy could perhaps have delayed the outbreak of the war, but many of the causes can be traced back to the late 19th century and were therefore harder to eliminate. Well, that and the fact that Austro-Hungary was _looking_ for a pretext on which to invade Serbia and crush its nationalist faction. They just didn’t expect to get quite as good a pretext as they did. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gavrilo-princip-and-the-archduke/691306/26 "2014-06-24T17:16:09Z")
> [@Fuji](#): > > I’m tired of blaming the Germans and Austrians for everything, and for not holding the Russians to account. Nicholas was telegraphing Wilhelm periodically trying avert war. Of course, the Tsar would have been a good local Fire Chief or county bureaucrat, and the Kaiser was mainlining testosterone. ---
**Author:** ![Fuji](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a9a28c/32.png) [@Fuji](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuji)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gavrilo-princip-and-the-archduke/691306/27 "2014-06-24T17:28:57Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > Nicholas was telegraphing Wilhelm periodically trying avert war. Oh, of course. I don’t think Nicholas _personally_ wanted war, but the policies and conduct of the government that he personally headed (I wouldn’t really say “led”) were what turned a regional spat into a wider conflict. > [@](#): > > Of course, the Tsar would have been a good local Fire Chief or county bureaucrat, and the Kaiser was mainlining testosterone. No disagreement here :D. ---
**Author:** ![standingwave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9de0a6/32.png) [@standingwave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/standingwave)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 5:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gavrilo-princip-and-the-archduke/691306/28 "2014-06-24T17:49:53Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > If you are really interested in this stuff I highly recommend Dan Carlin’s podcast [Blueprint for Armageddon](http://podbay.fm/show/173001861/e/1383117135?autostart=1). This first episode (three hours long and only part one of several podcasts) explores this particular question of yours. It really is worth a listen (as are his other episodes on other historical topics). Great stuff for a commute or car trip. You beat me to it. Dan Carlin is fantastic. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gavrilo-princip-and-the-archduke/691306/29 "2014-06-24T17:53:47Z")
> [@Fuji](#): > > Oh, really? :dubious: > > Seems to me that the country most responsible for turning a regional war (of which there had already been one in each of the past two years) into a global conflict was Russia. Russia was pushing Serbia to knuckle under to Austria’s demands or at least find a reasonable compromise. They were no less aggressive historically than Germany and Austria, but they did not really want this particular fight. > [@](#): > > Nobody forced Russia to be the “Defenders of Eastern Orthodoxy and All Slavs Everywhere”. That’s a mantle they took upon themselves. Quite true. But nobody asked England to declare themselves defenders of Protestants and Jews in the contemporary Ottoman state, nor France to claim the mantle of the defenders of Catholicism, ditto. This was a feature ( or bug, if you like ) of 19th/early 20th century nationalism, which occasionally took religious overtones. The Russians were by no means the only practitioners. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gavrilo-princip-and-the-archduke/691306/30 "2014-06-24T17:54:42Z")
> [@Fuji](#): > > Oh, really? :dubious: > > Seems to me that the country most responsible for turning a regional war (of which there had already been one in each of the past two years) into a global conflict was Russia. This is interesting: > [@](#): > > When the news of the murder of Archduke Francis Ferdinand arrived in Munich (I happened to be sitting at home and heard of it only- vaguely), I was at first seized with worry that the bullets may have been shot from the pistols of German students, who, out of indignation at the heir apparent’s continuous work of Slavization, wanted to free the German people from this internal enemy. What the consequence of this would have been was easy to imagine: a new wave of persecutions which would now have been ‘justified’ and ‘explained’ in the eyes of the whole world. But when, soon afterward, I heard the names of the supposed assassins, and moreover read that they had been identified as Serbs, a light shudder began to run through me at this vengeance of inscrutable Destiny. > > The greatest friend of the Slavs had fallen beneath the bullets of Slavic fanatics. > > Anyone with constant occasion in the last years to observe the relation of Austria to Serbia could not for a moment be in doubt that a stone had been set rolling whose course could no longer be arrested. > > Those who today shower the Viennese government with reproaches on the form and content of the ultimatum it issued, do it an injustice. No other power in the world could have acted differently in the same situation and the same position. At her southeastern border Austria possessed an inexorable and mortal enemy who at shorter and shorter intervals kept challenging the monarchy and would never have left off until the moment favorable for the shattering of the Empire had arrived. There was reason to fear that this would occur at the latest with the death of the old Emperor; by then perhaps the old monarchy would no longer be in a position to offer any serious resistance. In the last few years the state had been so bound up with the person of Francis Joseph that the death of this old embodiment of the Empire was felt by the broad masses to be tantamount to the death of the Empire itself. Indeed, it was one of the craftiest artifices, particularly of the Slavic policy, to create the appearance that the Austrian state no longer owed its existence to anything but the miraculous and unique skill of this monarch; this flattery was all the more welcome in the Hofburg, since it corresponded not at all to the real merits of the Emperor. The thorn hidden in these paeans of praise remained undiscovered The rulers did not see, or perhaps no longer wanted to see, that the more the monarchy depended on the outstanding statecraft, as they put it, of this ‘wisest monarch’ of all times, the more catastrophic the situation was bound to become if one day Fate were to knock at his door, too, demanding its tribute. > > Was old Austria even conceivable without the Emperor?! > > Wouldn’t the tragedy which had once stricken Maria Theresa have been repeated? > > No, it is really doing the Vienna circles an injustice to reproach them with rushing into a war which might otherwise have been avoided. It no longer could be avoided, but at most could have been postponed for one or two years. But this was the curse of German as well as Austrian diplomacy, that it had always striven to postpone the inevitable reckoning, until at length it was forced to strike at the most unfavorable hour. We can be convinced that a further attempt to save peace would have brought war at an even more unfavorable time. > > No, those who did not want this war had to have the courage to face the consequences, which could have consisted only in the sacrifice of Austria. Even then the war would have come, but no longer as a struggle of all against ourselves, but in the form of a partition of the Habsburg monarchy. And then they had to make up their minds to join in, or to look on with empty hands and let Fate run its course. > > Those very people, however, who today are loudest in cursing the beginning of the war and offer the sagest opinions were those who contributed most fatally to steering us into it. > > SOURCE: [Adolf Hitler: Mein Kampf](http://www.hitler.org/writings/Mein_Kampf/mkv1ch05.html) _“Anyone with constant occasion in the last years to observe the relation of Austria to Serbia could not for a moment be in doubt that a stone had been set rolling whose course could no longer be arrested.”_ Remember the reason the Austrian’s had not already attacked Serbia was because the Serb’s had an ally in Russia (both by treaty and tradition). The Russians kind of have to come to Serbia’s aid. ---
**Author:** ![Fuji](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a9a28c/32.png) [@Fuji](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuji)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gavrilo-princip-and-the-archduke/691306/31 "2014-06-24T18:14:48Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > Russia was pushing Serbia to knuckle under to Austria’s demands or at least find a reasonable compromise. They were no less aggressive historically than Germany and Austria, but they did not really want this particular fight. No, of course not. The war the Russians were looking to advantage of was the one which they foresaw happening with the inevitable splintering of the Habsburg empire. They just got the sequence wrong (first revolution in A-H, then attack them, not the other way around as happened historically). Too stupid to be proper vultlres. > [@](#): > > Quite true. But nobody asked England to declare themselves defenders of Protestants and Jews in the contemporary Ottoman state, nor France to claim the mantle of the defenders of Catholicism, ditto. This was a feature ( or bug, if you like ) of 19th/early 20th century nationalism, which occasionally took religious overtones. The Russians were by no means the only practitioners. All three - busybody assholes cynically exploiting religious and separatist movements for their own gain. Two of them with their own slave empires, and the third who didn’t even free its freakin’ serfs until 1861. Not that the Habsburgs (or [Saxe-Coburgs](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopold_II_of_Belgium), for that matter) had exactly clean hands, either. _All_ of the Great Powers were fairly monstrous back then. ---
**Author:** ![Fuji](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a9a28c/32.png) [@Fuji](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuji)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gavrilo-princip-and-the-archduke/691306/32 "2014-06-24T18:22:52Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > This is interesting: I agree. That was an interesting passage. I particularly like the part where the benefits and pitfalls of placing excessive faith in the personhood of the Emperor were illustrated. > [@](#): > > _“Anyone with constant occasion in the last years to observe the relation of Austria to Serbia could not for a moment be in doubt that a stone had been set rolling whose course could no longer be arrested.”_ > > Remember the reason the Austrian’s had not already attacked Serbia was because the Serb’s had an ally in Russia (both by treaty and tradition). The Russians kind of have to come to Serbia’s aid. I strongly disagree with your last sentence. The Russians most certainly do not have to assist Serbia to the point of armed conflict in this case. Shitstirrers like that guy [‘Apis’](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragutin_Dimitrijevi%C4%87) count on just this kind of rationale to provide cover for their ill-advised actions. Of course, one could say much the same in regards to A-H hiding behind Germany’s apron as well. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gavrilo-princip-and-the-archduke/691306/33 "2014-06-24T19:25:17Z")
> [@Fuji](#): > > I strongly disagree with your last sentence. The Russians most certainly do not have to assist Serbia to the point of armed conflict in this case. Shitstirrers like that guy [‘Apis’](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragutin_Dimitrijevi%C4%87) count on just this kind of rationale to provide cover for their ill-advised actions. Of course, one could say much the same in regards to A-H hiding behind Germany’s apron as well. I think this misjudges the realities of global politics. Sure a rational person would say if you continually twist the tiger’s tail then kill its cub you get what’s coming to you and it’s your own problem. There is really no way Russia would sit idly by at that time and let A-H have its way with Serbia though. There is a reason A-H first asked (and seems to have gotten) a commitment from the Kaiser in Germany to back them up before going after Serbia in the hopes that would make Russia back off. It’d be akin to the US wanting to invade Cuba in the 60’s but knows the Soviets will not sit still for that so first gets the commitment of US allies in Europe to back us up hoping that would be enough to forestall the Soviets from attacking. ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gavrilo-princip-and-the-archduke/691306/34 "2014-06-24T19:38:21Z")
Well, if we can’t trust Adolf Hitler’s analysis of the international situation, who can we trust? ---
**Author:** ![Fuji](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a9a28c/32.png) [@Fuji](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuji)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gavrilo-princip-and-the-archduke/691306/35 "2014-06-24T20:04:46Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > I think this misjudges the realities of global politics. > > Sure a rational person would say if you continually twist the tiger’s tail then kill its cub you get what’s coming to you and it’s your own problem. > > There is really no way Russia would sit idly by at that time and let A-H have its way with Serbia though. There is a reason A-H first asked (and seems to have gotten) a commitment from the Kaiser in Germany to back them up before going after Serbia in the hopes that would make Russia back off. > > It’d be akin to the US wanting to invade Cuba in the 60’s but knows the Soviets will not sit still for that so first gets the commitment of US allies in Europe to back us up hoping that would be enough to forestall the Soviets from attacking. Well, at least Austria-Hungary checked with Germany first before pushing their luck. Did the Serbian government (at least those parts of it that must have known of the activities of the Black Hand and, at best, ineffectually opposed it or, at worst, actively supported it) check with Russia before they signed off on Franz Ferdinand’s death warrant? If some kind of subject/client status is being conferred on Serbia, then it is upon their ostensible overlord to do a bit of vetting and supervision. ---
**Author:** ![Deeg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deeg/32/2955_2.png) [@Deeg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Deeg)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gavrilo-princip-and-the-archduke/691306/36 "2014-06-24T20:56:54Z")
> [@Captain\_Amazing](#): > > Well, if we can’t trust Adolf Hitler’s analysis of the international situation, who can we trust? Zing! ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gavrilo-princip-and-the-archduke/691306/37 "2014-06-24T21:03:38Z")
> [@Fuji](#): > > Well, at least Austria-Hungary checked with Germany first before pushing their luck. Did the Serbian government (at least those parts of it that must have known of the activities of the Black Hand and, at best, ineffectually opposed it or, at worst, actively supported it) check with Russia before they signed off on Franz Ferdinand’s death warrant? > > If some kind of subject/client status is being conferred on Serbia, then it is upon their ostensible overlord to do a bit of vetting and supervision. While some members of Black Hand were in the Serbian government I am not clear how much any of this was a concerted effort by the Serbian government or if it was a group working towards their own ends who happened to have positions in the government. Further, Black Hand is at a bit of remove since it was [Young Bosnia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Young_Bosnia) who carried out the assassination attempt. While there seems to be some affiliation with Black Hand it seems we are going further down the ladder towards some idealists with too much time on their hands. ---
**Author:** ![Freddy\_the\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a587f6/32.png) [@Freddy\_the\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Freddy_the_Pig)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2014, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gavrilo-princip-and-the-archduke/691306/38 "2014-06-24T21:09:19Z")
> [@Fuji](#): > > They had about as much business getting in Austria-Hungary’s face as the Habsburgs would have had for getting in Russia’s about matters in the Caucasus or Central Asia, i.e. none. Excuse me? What made the entire Balkans vassal territory of Austria-Hungary, where no other power could form alliances? Austria-Hungary had legitimate grievances against Serbia as a result of the assassination. Had they chosen to pursue those grievances in anything close to a civilized manner, the world would have backed them. Instead they delivered a 48-hour ultimatum which made some of the most extravagant demands in the history of diplomacy, such as the right of Austria to remove _any official_ from the Serbian government or military, without presenting any evidence whatsoever to anybody. They permitted no negotiation, no extension of the deadline, and no third party intervention or mediation. For Russia to abandon her ally under those circumstances would have been an act of craven appeasement. I attach no blame to them for threatening to intervene–and it was the mere _threat_ (mobilization) that led Germany to declare war on Russia. ---
**Author:** ![Slithy\_Tove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slithy_tove/32/18248_2.png) [@Slithy\_Tove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slithy_Tove)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gavrilo-princip-and-the-archduke/691306/39 "2014-06-25T00:45:15Z")
I wonder… If France had launched a pre-emptive strike against Germany through Belgium, would Great Britain have honored its treaty by declaring war on them? ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gavrilo-princip-and-the-archduke/691306/40 "2014-06-25T00:52:24Z")
Honestly, Austria-Hungary probably should have just invaded Serbia right away, and the problem would have been solved, because they were pretty clearly in the right there. But, of course, for domestic reasons (The Hungarians and Count Tizla) they couldn’t, and it was the Empire’s inconsistency that helped lead to the situation’s escalation. And the Russians were the first to mobilize. Russia mobilized as soon as the ultimatum was issued…before the Russian government had even read it, and the Russian mobilization was accompanied by the freezing of German assets. They definitely deserve some sort of moral responsibility for the situation, because they had committed to war before anyone else. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gavrilo-princip-and-the-archduke/691306.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gavrilo-princip-and-the-archduke/691306.md?page=3)