# GDP grew at a 3.5% annual rate in 2018 Q3 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 26, 2018, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gdp-grew-at-a-3-5-annual-rate-in-2018-q3/823557 "2018-10-26T18:59:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2018, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gdp-grew-at-a-3-5-annual-rate-in-2018-q3/823557/41 "2018-10-27T13:07:33Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > The fun begins next year when American businesses truly begin to feel the impact of a reckless trade war, and more significantly, when we begin to feel the squeeze of trillion dollar deficits. Don’t forget that next year is also the first year people will file their taxes under the new tax law. I suspect the middle class is going to take it in the shorts with fewer things to itemize and an inadequate standard deduction. Much screaming and yelling in the run up to the 2020 election. ---
**Author:** ![str8cashhomie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/7cd45c/32.png) [@str8cashhomie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/str8cashhomie)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2018, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gdp-grew-at-a-3-5-annual-rate-in-2018-q3/823557/42 "2018-10-27T14:33:20Z")
> [@RadioWave](#): > > This is where I think the Democrats should be focusing their message. You’re not going to convince anyone that the economy isn’t doing great (it is) and you’re not going to convince many that it’s all thanks to Obama (it’s not). > > What they should be doing is focusing on the fact that the economy is doing well because the Republicans are borrowing money from the future and injecting into today’s economy. Trump’s first full deficit is $200 billion larger than the 2015 deficit, more than $120 billion over Obama’s last deficit. His tax cuts, which are undoubtedly a large part of why the economy is booming, will increase the deficit $2.3 trillion over the next decade. The Democrats need to attack the Republican’s economic message by showing that all they’re doing is stealing money from tomorrow’s workers to pay for today’s corporate profits. The problem is that during the sequester, America basically tentatively committed to a modest but unpleasant diet, and now we’ve decided we’re sick of the diet and gone back to the junk food. That’s the point where you don’t want to hear that you’re making yourself less healthy in the long-term. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2018, 4:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gdp-grew-at-a-3-5-annual-rate-in-2018-q3/823557/43 "2018-10-27T16:27:00Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > That must be some sort of weird timeline you’re from where the Dems are unified and the GOP can barely pass anything through Congress because they’re always arguing amongst themselves. > > I think it must’ve split off from the one I’ve lived in sometime before Will Rogers (“I am not a member of any organized party — I am a Democrat”), but I’m having a hard time finding it. You’ll have to tell me more about it in order for me to locate it. > [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > 1. Trump tried to get the budget shot down, both by trying to force Congress to include funding for the wall and by threatening to veto it, once the news came through that the Democrats had gotten all their programs funded. > 2. That only explains half the equation, but would explain that half admittedly. > 3. Trump campaigned on small government and solid budgeting and was almost certainly hired on the expectation that, as a “successful businessman”, he’d fix the government budget. Similarly as Obama campaigned to close Gitmo, everyone on his side genuinely voted with the expectation of how he’d go, but quietly ignored the failure to actually do that. The quietly ignoring part doesn’t change what they were voting for, though. Nah. Mitt Romney campaigned on being a successful businessman and small government. He didn’t make an impact. Trump campaigned on being Trump. CruzRubio campaigned on being small government. Nothing happened for them. Fiscal conservatives are few and far between right now. ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2018, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gdp-grew-at-a-3-5-annual-rate-in-2018-q3/823557/44 "2018-10-27T16:32:24Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > I’m not seeing the irony, nor was any intended. The economic recovery that took place under Obama (after the huge mess left by the Republican predecessor) enabled the gains that Trump is now coincidentally in office for. > > If Trump had taken office with the economy as it was in 2009 and could now report a 3.5% growth, I’d be happy to credit him for it. > [@asahi](#): > > But this isn’t just the Trump economy; this is the GOP economy in which going back to 2010, the GOP refused to help Obama make the economic recovery - caused by their policies - a more balanced recovery. You guys should probably reconcile this enormous difference in rhetoric. The Democratic partisans are constantly talking out of both sides of their mouths on this issue. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2018, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gdp-grew-at-a-3-5-annual-rate-in-2018-q3/823557/45 "2018-10-27T18:43:10Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > You are aware there are different factions in the party that say different things? … ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2018, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gdp-grew-at-a-3-5-annual-rate-in-2018-q3/823557/46 "2018-10-27T19:12:46Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Let’s take a closer look at the numbers. > > The 3.5% annual growth rate is very close to the long-term average of 3.2%. I’ll guess that if you condition the comparison to reflect only periods when the government is running a huge deficit, the present growth rate would appear dismal. > > Looking at the GDP growth by sector: personal services and non-durable goods are up. Durable goods are down; construction is down; agriculture is down; exports are down — this last isn’t surprising since bilateral trade wars are part of the MAGA “strategy.” How about the miners? Have they gone back to work? > > The S&P500 stock index recently fell 11% to hit a 6-month low. > > The yield on Corporate AA bonds is 3.73% right now, compared with 2.7% a year ago, or even 3.39% a month ago. For BBB bonds the current yield is 4.6% vs 3.5% a year ago. For B bonds, the current yield is 6.8% vs 5.4% a year ago. Part of these rises are due to fears of the Trump inflation; but part is fear that the business cycle is in its last innings despite Trump’s attempted bubble. > > The Trump inflation has helped _me_, though! My SocSec will get a big 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment in 2019, despite that I don’t pay the inflated prices of U.S. goods. This is the biggest SocSec hike since I retired several years ago. US growth has not reached 3% annual growth for the best part of a decade. Many (if not most) forecasters predict 3% future annual growth to be unsustainable. I am surprised no-one has pulled you up on your figures yet, this being a forum dedicated to fighting ignorance. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2018, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gdp-grew-at-a-3-5-annual-rate-in-2018-q3/823557/47 "2018-10-27T19:16:45Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > You guys should probably reconcile this enormous difference in rhetoric. The Democratic partisans are constantly talking out of both sides of their mouths on this issue. 😕 “both sides of their mouths”? They are saying diametrically opposed things at the same time? I’m not seeing it, not in the posts you quoted. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2018, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gdp-grew-at-a-3-5-annual-rate-in-2018-q3/823557/48 "2018-10-27T19:28:15Z")
> [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](#): > > US growth has not reached 3% annual growth for the best part of a decade. Many (if not most) forecasters predict 3% future annual growth to be unsustainable. I am surprised no-one has pulled you up on your figures yet, this being a forum dedicated to fighting ignorance. Yes, Obama seemed to basically throw in the towel on even _trying_ to achieve 3% growth. [The NYT, back in 2014](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/02/opinion/growth-without-jobs.html), said “The most likely scenario is for the economy to continue to muddle along at an overall annual pace of 2 percent to 2.5 percent.” “muddle along” is, I think, a good descriptor of the economy under Obama, at least his second term. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2018, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gdp-grew-at-a-3-5-annual-rate-in-2018-q3/823557/49 "2018-10-27T19:38:44Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > Nah. Mitt Romney campaigned on being a successful businessman and small government. He didn’t make an impact. So the Republicans agreed with each other on mildly different things in 2012 than they do in 2018. Okay. > [@](#): > > Trump campaigned on being Trump. CruzRubio campaigned on being small government. Nothing happened for them. Fiscal conservatives are few and far between right now. And by 2017, everyone was singing from the new hymnal. Didn’t take long. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2018, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gdp-grew-at-a-3-5-annual-rate-in-2018-q3/823557/50 "2018-10-27T20:06:04Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > Nah. Mitt Romney campaigned on being a successful businessman and small government. He didn’t make an impact. Trump campaigned on being Trump. CruzRubio campaigned on being small government. Nothing happened for them. Fiscal conservatives are few and far between right now. Mitt Romney is a career politician. The Republicans who went for Trump don’t like career politicians because they hold them to be liars. ---
**Author:** ![RadioWave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/91b2a8/32.png) [@RadioWave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RadioWave)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2018, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gdp-grew-at-a-3-5-annual-rate-in-2018-q3/823557/51 "2018-10-27T20:25:31Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Yes, Obama seemed to basically throw in the towel on even _trying_ to achieve 3% growth. > > [The NYT, back in 2014](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/02/opinion/growth-without-jobs.html), said “The most likely scenario is for the economy to continue to muddle along at an overall annual pace of 2 percent to 2.5 percent.” > > “muddle along” is, I think, a good descriptor of the economy under Obama, at least his second term. One of the reasons why we’re seeing higher growth now is that Trump and the Republicans are borrowing heavily to boost the economy. Looking at Obama’s second term vs Trump’s first, the deficits were ```auto Year Obama Trump Trump Increase (Decrease) 1 679 665 ($14 billion) 2 485 779 +$294 billion 3 438 984 +$546 billion 4 585 ... ``` Don’t you think that if Obama had borrowed $546 billion and injected it into the economy that growth would have exceeded 2%? It’s pretty easy to have a soaring economy if someone else is paying for it. Elections are won and lost on the economy and Republicans are successfully painting the stock market, low unemployment and growth like they’re pulling off some financial wizardry. If the Democrats start publicizing all this deficit spending to show that there really is nothing behind the curtain other than a willingness to blow up the national debt they might be able to actually turn fiscal conservatives against the Republicans. Things like the debt are far more important to them than social issues or ‘character’. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2018, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gdp-grew-at-a-3-5-annual-rate-in-2018-q3/823557/52 "2018-10-27T20:48:42Z")
> [@RadioWave](#): > > … Don’t you think that if Obama had borrowed $546 billion and injected it into the economy that growth would have exceeded 2%? It’s pretty easy to have a soaring economy if someone else is paying for it. … [Obama DID borrow hundreds of billions and inject it into the economy.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Act_of_2009) He did NOT turn that into 3% growth though. ---
**Author:** ![SenorBeef](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/senorbeef/32/2220_2.png) [@SenorBeef](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SenorBeef)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2018, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gdp-grew-at-a-3-5-annual-rate-in-2018-q3/823557/53 "2018-10-27T22:40:08Z")
Before I say the obvious, why not let you do it? Tell us about the differences you see between inheriting the 2008 economy and the 2016 one. Also, what direction was the deficit moving in each time and why? ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2018, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gdp-grew-at-a-3-5-annual-rate-in-2018-q3/823557/54 "2018-10-27T22:49:17Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > 😕 “both sides of their mouths”? They are saying diametrically opposed things at the same time? I’m not seeing it, not in the posts you quoted. Either 2010-2016 was a GOP economy or an Obama economy. ---
**Author:** ![RadioWave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/91b2a8/32.png) [@RadioWave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RadioWave)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2018, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gdp-grew-at-a-3-5-annual-rate-in-2018-q3/823557/55 "2018-10-28T00:14:31Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > [Obama DID borrow hundreds of billions and inject it into the economy.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Act_of_2009) He did NOT turn that into 3% growth though. Plus you specifically mentioned Obama’s second term (2013-2016) not 2009. In fact, considering the additional $546 billion Trump borrowed is 2.8% of the GDP by itself, it’s pretty sad GDP growth was only 1% higher than Obama’s. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2018, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gdp-grew-at-a-3-5-annual-rate-in-2018-q3/823557/56 "2018-10-28T00:53:26Z")
> [@SenorBeef](#): > > Before I say the obvious, why not let you do it? Tell us about the differences you see between inheriting the 2008 economy and the 2016 one. Also, what direction was the deficit moving in each time and why? The deficit was going up in both cases. Obviously the economy was better in 2016 than 2008. > [@](#): > > In 2016, the federal budget deficit will increase, in relation to the size of the economy, for the first time since 2009, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s estimates. If current laws generally remained unchanged, the deficit would grow over the next 10 years, and by 2026 it would be considerably larger than its average over the past 50 years, CBO projects. Debt held by the public would also grow significantly from its already high level. [CBO from Jan 2016](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/51129) ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2018, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gdp-grew-at-a-3-5-annual-rate-in-2018-q3/823557/57 "2018-10-28T01:05:55Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > [Obama DID borrow hundreds of billions and inject it into the economy.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Act_of_2009) He did NOT turn that into 3% growth though. He turned an economy shedding about 750,000 private sector jobs per month into one creating about 200,000 private sector jobs per month. Trump has taken an economy creating about 200,00 private sector jobs per month and turned it into one creating about 200,000 private sector jobs per month. [Here’s](https://www.quora.com/How-do-I-convince-Trump-supporters-that-the-economy-is-because-of-Obama/answer/Joel-Shore-1) a graph I made from BLS data that nicely illustrates this. Understand the difference? ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2018, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gdp-grew-at-a-3-5-annual-rate-in-2018-q3/823557/58 "2018-10-28T01:09:51Z")
I should add that Obama (and GW Bush at the end of his term) stimulated the economy, growing the deficit, when it was necessary to do so because there was a huge contraction in demand. Trump is ballooning the deficit during a time in the economic cycle when there is no justification to do this…except, I suppose, if you want to create a few quarters of inflated GDP growth before the shit hits the fan. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2018, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gdp-grew-at-a-3-5-annual-rate-in-2018-q3/823557/59 "2018-10-28T01:13:27Z")
> [@jshore](#): > > … Understand the difference? This thread is about GDP, not jobs statistics. Understand the difference? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2018, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gdp-grew-at-a-3-5-annual-rate-in-2018-q3/823557/60 "2018-10-28T01:14:59Z")
> [@jshore](#): > > I should add that Obama (and GW Bush at the end of his term) stimulated the economy, growing the deficit, when it was necessary to do so because there was a huge contraction in demand. Trump is ballooning the deficit during a time in the economic cycle when there is no justification to do this…except, I suppose, if you want to create a few quarters of inflated GDP growth before the shit hits the fan. Most of the “ballooning” of the deficit was baked in before President Trump was elected. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gdp-grew-at-a-3-5-annual-rate-in-2018-q3/823557.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gdp-grew-at-a-3-5-annual-rate-in-2018-q3/823557.md?page=4)