# Gee, is it Tet already? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 23, 2006, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gee-is-it-tet-already/381559 "2006-11-23T16:21:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2006, 11:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gee-is-it-tet-already/381559/21 "2006-11-24T11:01:14Z")
[Iraq’s Death Squads](http://www.channel4.com/news/dispatches/article.jsp?id=301) I didn’t see the documentary but here’s an article accompanying it. It’s well worth reading in full. > [@](#): > > Five men were shot dead that night - a sixth had been killed in the street three weeks earlier. Their crime? The head of the family, Sheik Khadem Sarheed, was leader of a well-known Sunni tribe. Now he’s dead, along with four of his adult sons and one son-in-law. One of the sons was a policeman and recognised the killers. ‘He told them he was a policemen like them’, says his widow, ‘But they shot him in the neck and in the stomach’. > > Neighbours saw the police cars parked outside the house and recognised the uniforms of the notorious police commandos. They’re highly trained, heavily armed officers, more like soldiers than ordinary policemen. And they report directly to the Ministry of the Interior. Over the last eighteen months these commandos - who are almost exclusively Shia Muslims - have been implicated in rounding up and killing thousands of ordinary Sunni civilians. > > And it’s all happening under the eyes of US commanders, who seem unwilling or unable to intervene. These are the chilling findings of a special investigation, filmed for a Channel 4 documentary, The Death Squads that reveals how one of the most senior ministers in Iraq’s new administration stands accused of presiding over a campaign to torture, maim and execute his enemies. And this is the dossier that utterly explodes the myth that peace and a liberal democracy are blossoming in the new ‘liberated’ Iraq. > [@](#): > > Up to a hundred bodies a day are found dumped on waste ground and rubbish tips around Baghdad. They’ve usually been dreadfully tortured. Acid and electric drills are the favourite methods and many of the bodies are still wearing police handcuffs. > > As we discovered, there is even compelling evidence that the secret prisons of Saddam’s day are back - stinking hell-holes where hundreds of victims are herded together to be raped, tortured and maimed for no crime other than belonging to the wrong sect. From the early days of the US occupation of Iraq, the warning signs were there. One of the most senior British police officers sent to Baghdad was the former Deputy Chief Constable of South Yorkshire, \ Douglas Brand says he voiced his concerns, ‘Probably ten times a day to whoever would listen, usually two star Generals and above.’ He even spoke directly to the US Defence Secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, ‘But I sensed the subtleties were not understood and if there were consequences down the road, that’s something the Iraqis were going to have to handle themselves’. Those consequences became clear very quickly. In June 2004 an American soldier, Kevin Maries, was looking through his sights of his sniper rifle from his usual position on the top floor of the Ministry of the Interior building when he saw Iraqi police commandos bring hundreds of prisoners into a Ministry compound directly below him. He took a series of astonishing photographs through his rifle sight showing what happened. ‘They were forced onto their knees, beaten with rubber hoses,’ he remembers, ‘The beatings got more severe, a metal bar was used and they were beating the soles of their feet’. When he thought some of the prisoners might die, Kevin alerted his unit and American troops turned up to stop the torture. But an hour later US Headquarters ordered them to withdraw and leave the prisoners to the mercy of their captors. [/QUOTE] > [@](#): > > Last summer, Al Dini was among a delegation of MPs who turned up unannounced to check one of these suspected illegal sites. He showed us the video his staff took of the inspection. Several hundred men are pictured, crammed into cells. There are chaotic scenes of jubilation as the prisoners realise outsiders have come to end their ordeal and they all clamour to tell Al Dini their stories. One man is an Imam at a mosque. ‘They forced us to talk by raping us’, he tells the MP. Eventually prisoners sit patiently on the floor while one by one they display their injuries. Some have been branded with hot metal bars or had their fingernails ripped out. They lift their shirts to show bruises, scars and burns all over their bodies. > > Then Mohammed Al Dini showed us a second video. Three days after he exposed this illegal prison, a group of his relatives visited him in Baghdad. On their way home their minibus was stopped by uniformed men. They were dragged out and executed on the street. The video shows ten bodies, lying on the pavement, in large pools of blood. Yellow leaflets have been scattered round which say, ‘Congratulations to those who killed these Sunni extremists.’ > > Mohammed Al Dini is in no doubt about who murdered his ten cousins. ‘They were militiamen operating as death squads inside the police’, he says, ‘And the attack was ordered by those people I exposed for running the prison.’ Remind me again? At least things are not as bad as under who? ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2006, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gee-is-it-tet-already/381559/22 "2006-11-24T12:08:24Z")
[QUOTE=slaphead] I have a feeling it’s going to look more like Bosnia than Beirut. [/QUOTE] As someone who was in the Balkans and Baghdad, I would agree with this statement. ---
**Author:** ![slaphead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9bcb4/32.png) [@slaphead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slaphead)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2006, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gee-is-it-tet-already/381559/23 "2006-11-24T14:52:22Z")
[QUOTE=tagos] Yes - I take that point but like Beirut Baghdad dominates the landscape and it the biggest city for each faction in terms of population. Even the Kurds. That is where the Civil War is being played out. [/QUOTE] Remember [Sarajevo](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Sarajevo)? Anyhow, I was referring more to the ethnic cleansing and genocide than the geography. The current bloodbath in Baghdad seems to be more about militias trying to drive out everyone from other ethnic groups than about territorial control, even though there seem to be tribal and political feuds on top of that. Deliberate massacres of civilians were the exception rather than the rule in Beirut, as far as I know. If the US pulls out soon, it wouldn’t surprise me if we see things that make Srebrenica seem like a tea party. Although since 8,000 men and boys were massacred there, Iraq is probably running at one Srebrenica every three months or so already. How’s that for a cheerful thought to take into the weekend? ---
**Author:** ![RedFury](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ec9cab/32.png) [@RedFury](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RedFury)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2006, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gee-is-it-tet-already/381559/24 "2006-11-24T14:54:05Z")
[QUOTE=xt] I can practically hear some folks out there saying “What?!? It hasn’t hit the fucking fan YET!!!”. Nope. We’ve merely seen the tip of the iceberg from a fucked up perspective…things can get a LOT worse. [/QUOTE] Not for the 600,000 thousand Iraqis already dead. As for “worse,” how can you possibly _know_ that for a fact? Related to Karnac perhaps? Point being that as long as Iraq is occupied, my own prediction greatly from yours. IOW, beyond the sectarian violence there’s an innate hatred of the American occupation, your being there only makes things _worse_. If there is one lesson that appears to escape Americans such as yourself, it’s the fact that any sort of “success” in 'nam, began precisely at the time your troops boarded the last chopper. Only then did the healing begin. Seriously, what is it going to take for some of you to admit you’ve already been defeated? I mean, really, consider the following fact: [US involved for longer time in Iraq than in World War II](http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20061123/pl_afp/usiraqwarwwiihistory_061123172950) It’s NOT your country, you are CERTAINLY not wanted there, so what’s the point of staying other than delaying the inevitable both for you and the Iraqis. Again, what they do with their country has nothing to do with your wishes and the neocon’s geopolital dream is nothing but what it was from the start…a dream. And a very bloody one at that. The fact that it’s now an ongoing nightmare still appears to escape the grasp of some of the “Stay The Coursers.” Knock knock, ground control to Major Tom… ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2006, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gee-is-it-tet-already/381559/25 "2006-11-24T15:02:59Z")
[QUOTE=slaphead] Remember [Sarajevo](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Sarajevo)? Anyhow, I was referring more to the ethnic cleansing and genocide than the geography. The current bloodbath in Baghdad seems to be more about militias trying to drive out everyone from other ethnic groups than about territorial control, even though there seem to be tribal and political feuds on top of that. Deliberate massacres of civilians were the exception rather than the rule in Beirut, as far as I know. If the US pulls out soon, it wouldn’t surprise me if we see things that make Srebrenica seem like a tea party. Although since 8,000 men and boys were massacred there, Iraq is probably running at one Srebrenica every three months or so already. How’s that for a cheerful thought to take into the weekend? [/QUOTE] God yes, I remember that whole deeply shameful period. The rage, the impotent demonstrations, the perverse ‘even handedness’ of European govts and the blind eyes turned to atrocities. I still have trouble viewing Serbs as anything but collective war criminals. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2006, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gee-is-it-tet-already/381559/26 "2006-11-24T15:13:14Z")
[QUOTE=madmonk28] As someone who was in the Balkans and Baghdad, I would agree with this statement. [/QUOTE] As a poster whose opinions I value greatly, thanks. Devil or Deep Blue Sea? Or ‘here comes the new torturer, same as the old torturer.’ And you knwo what really depresses me further. I saw a report on the draft CIA report circulating saying that they have no proof Iran is developing a nuclear program. Beginning to sound familiar? The BBC Washington (or Channel 4) reporter said that according to his contacts Bush’s response was: “We do not accept that analysis.” Deja Vu beginning to strike? They have other information sources that tell them otherwise. (Stop me if you’ve heard this before!) And this CIA beating font of knowledge? An Israeli ‘secret source inside the Iranian Govt’. :dubious: Paging Mr Chalabi, paging Mr Chalabi. :mad: President Gump seems incapable, or more likely, unwilling to learn from history or even his own ongoing experience. ---
**Author:** ![cckerberos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/f0a364/32.png) [@cckerberos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cckerberos)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2006, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gee-is-it-tet-already/381559/27 "2006-11-24T15:15:19Z")
[QUOTE=RedFury] I mean, really, consider the following fact: [US involved for longer time in Iraq than in World War II](http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20061123/pl_afp/usiraqwarwwiihistory_061123172950) [/QUOTE] Sure, I guess that’s true if you count the American occupation of Iraq but disregard the American occupation of Japan and Germany. I fail to see what significance that fact has, though. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2006, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gee-is-it-tet-already/381559/28 "2006-11-24T15:55:52Z")
[QUOTE=tagos] [Iraq’s Death Squads](http://www.channel4.com/news/dispatches/article.jsp?id=301) I didn’t see the documentary but here’s an article accompanying it. It’s well worth reading in full. [/QUOTE] I couldn’t - I had to stop about a quarter of the way in. Reading it just plain hurt too much. Every time I think I have a handle on just how bad it is over there, something crosses my path - like this - to remind me I have no idea. [QUOTE=xtisme] This seems to be one of those excluded middle thingies…there are a whole range of (equally unpalatable) options that you aren’t mentioning. For instance, there is: Option: Decide to stick it out, that we can’t and won’t cut and run, that failure isn’t an option as long as we might, just possibly need some of that oil stuff in the future…realize that if Iraq goes, the whole region might go with Iran and Syria jumping in, and with Saudi buying a stake in the game as well…not to mention Kuait, and perhaps even Israel being dragged into the fun. [/quote] Iran and Syria actually get along reasonably well. An Iranian-Syrian partition of Arab Iraq would at least put someone in charge. That would be a HUGE improvement over our management of the situation. (Can’t see Saudi Arabia wanting to buy a piece of this trouble, at all, ever.) > [@](#): > > Radically ramp up our current troop strength XT, I’ve got a lot of respect for you as a poster, but this is pony time you’re talking about, here. We can’t ‘radically’ ramp up our current troop strength. We’ve got 140K troops there, and we could _very temporarily_ bump it up another 20K - less than 15%! - which would last a few months, and that would be it. Should I list all the tricks we’re resorting to already, just to sustain 140K troops in Iraq? We’re breaking our military as it is. > [@](#): > > and begin serious talks with anyone who WILL talk on how to lessen the tension and fighting. I’m all for that, but who exactly are we going to talk to? > [@](#): > > Forget about pushing through ‘democracy’ if necessary, allow the Iraqi’s to more fully buy in to a possible solution by suggesting alternative forms of goverments that might work better in this situation. The problem is, we’ve destroyed their pre-war institutions, and the new ones we’ve created for them aren’t worth a damn, except to the Sadr and Badr militias. And **tagos** ’ link shows how well that’s working out. > [@](#): > > At the same time, do the bended knee thingy and TRY and bring some of the rest of The World™ into helping in stabilizing this massive fuckup, instead of just bitching about it. I’m sure it will be great comfort that the US was wrong, that the US totally fucked the pooch, that Bush is the Evil™, blah blah blah…when the entire region explodes and all the oil is cut off. We need to take the hit, to humble ourselves, etc etc…but THEY fucking need to get over the smugness and see the threat…and see that their own intersts lie in figuring out some way to stabalize this thing before it gets really bad. The World is smart enough to recognize a lost cause when they see one. They don’t have half a million troops to sink into Iraq either, and anything less than that is likely viewed as insufficient. Besides, this isn’t likely to spread further. Pro-democracy activists in Syria have shut up because Iraq’s giving democracy a bad name in the Arab world. Iran’s going to be stronger, not weaker, due to what’s happening in Iraq. Saudi Arabia’s going to just (literally) wall it off, and Iraqi Kurdistan can protect itself from the chaos in Arab Iraq. The World isn’t gonna come to our rescue. We’ve got a bigger military budget than something like the next 10 countries combined…if we can’t do it, who can? > [@](#): > > What I SAID was…failure is not an option. What happens when failure is both ‘not an option’ and the only option? > [@](#): > > We’ve merely seen the tip of the iceberg from a fucked up perspective…things can get a LOT worse. And they can and will get a lot worse if we stay, and we’re going to leave _sometime_, and whenever we do, things are likely to get even more worse than they were before we left. There’s also **Afghanistan** , which appears to be about where Iraq was three years ago. Since Iraq’s pretty much a lost cause anyway, I’d kinda like to save _one_ country, rather than see _both_ our glorious victories get sucked down the toilet. And the only place we can get more troops to stabilize Afghanistan is from Iraq. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2006, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gee-is-it-tet-already/381559/29 "2006-11-24T16:04:17Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] I couldn’t - I had to stop about a quarter of the way in. Reading it just plain hurt too much. [/QUOTE] [Then you’re not going to like the full video](http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5767337426863032052&q=%22the+death+squads%22+channel+4&hl=en) I got about ten seconds in. Long row of decaying corpses with their hands behind their backs and bullet holes. I screwed my eyes up and tried to pretend they were rose petal covered kittens but I couldn’t quite manage it. I’m genuinely curious. Do these sorts of documentaries get shown on terrestrial free-to-air TV in the USA? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2006, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gee-is-it-tet-already/381559/30 "2006-11-24T16:57:24Z")
[QUOTE=tagos] [Then you’re not going to like the full video](http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5767337426863032052&q=%22the+death+squads%22+channel+4&hl=en) I got about ten seconds in. Long row of decaying corpses with their hands behind their backs and bullet holes. I screwed my eyes up and tried to pretend they were rose petal covered kittens but I couldn’t quite manage it. [/quote] You’re a braver man than I am. > [@](#): > > I’m genuinely curious. Do these sorts of documentaries get shown on terrestrial free-to-air TV in the USA? From what I hear, I strongly doubt it. But I watch almost no TV at all, so I’m relying on hearsay. But you’ll be glad to know that, according to [Atrios](http://atrios.blogspot.com/2006_11_19_atrios_archive.html#116438333384863112), CNN says: > [@](#): > > Most Shiite insurgents have given up violence and adapted to political process. I guess that CNN’s saying that working through the ‘political process’ means joining the cops, and being able to round up Sunnis and torture and kill them while wearing a government uniform. Not sure what their definition of having ‘given up violence’ is, but I reckon it’s different from mine. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2006, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gee-is-it-tet-already/381559/31 "2006-11-24T19:01:43Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] Iran and Syria actually get along reasonably well. An Iranian-Syrian partition of Arab Iraq would at least put someone in charge. That would be a HUGE improvement over our management of the situation. [/QUOTE] I just want to address this part of your post because you seem to be making a huge leap of faith. 1. Is there any evidence that Syria or Iran want a partioned Iraq? 2. Is there any evidence that the Iraqis want a partioned Iraq? 2a. Is there any evidence that the Iraqis would accept Iranian/Syrian overlords? 3. Assuming we partitioned Iraq as you say, why would that suddenly make anyone “in charge” an more than if we or the current Iraqi government declared martial law and put someone “in charge”? You might want to read this analysis from the Washington Post. > [@](#): > > [Sectarian Strife in Iraq Imperils Entire Region, Analysts Warn](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/15/AR2006111501490.html) > > As Iraq’s neighbors grapple with the various ideas put forward for solving the country’s problems, they uniformly shudder at one proposal: dividing Iraq into separate regions for Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds, and then speeding the withdrawal of U.S. forces. > > “To envision that you can divide Iraq into three parts is to envision ethnic cleansing on a massive scale, sectarian killing on a massive scale,” Prince Turki al-Faisal, the Saudi ambassador to the United States, said Oct. 30 at a conference in Washington. “Since America came into Iraq uninvited, it should not leave Iraq uninvited.” > > “When the ethnic-religious break occurs in one country, it will not fail to occur elsewhere, too,” Syrian President Bashar al-Assad told Germany’s Der Spiegel newsweekly recently. “It would be as it was at the end of the Soviet Union, only much worse. Large wars, small wars – no one will be able to get a grip on the consequences.” I think we need to engage with Iran and Syria and that Bush is an idiot for trying to further isolate those two countries. But the idea that those countries want Iran carved up does not make sense in light of what we actually know. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2006, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gee-is-it-tet-already/381559/32 "2006-11-24T19:03:05Z")
Make that “Iraq” in the last sentence, not “Iran”. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2006, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gee-is-it-tet-already/381559/33 "2006-11-24T19:37:50Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] I just want to address this part of your post because you seem to be making a huge leap of faith. 1. Is there any evidence that Syria or Iran want a partioned Iraq? [/quote] No. I was simply responding to an alternative raised by **xtisme**. > [@](#): > > 1. Is there any evidence that the Iraqis want a partioned Iraq? Haven’t we been here before? There’s a hell of a lot of evidence that a lot of Iraqis with the guns to back it up, _don’t want other kinds of Iraqis living in the parts they control_. That doesn’t say that anyone wants partition _per se_, but if the Sunnis are kicking Shi’ites out of the territory they control (or simply butchering them), the Shi’ites are kicking Sunnis out of the territory they control (or simply butchering them), and the Kurds are kicking Arabs out of the territory they control (or simply butchering them), then a lot of people are working towards the goal of partition already. > [@](#): > > 2a. Is there any evidence that the Iraqis would accept Iranian/Syrian overlords? No, but my guess is they’d have better luck imposing order, out of a combination of greater understanding of the territory, and willingness to be more ruthless than we have been. They could hardly do worse in terms of imposing authority than we have. > [@](#): > > 1. Assuming we partitioned Iraq as you say Wrong thread. I have made no suggestion here that we should try to impose Iraq. I have only suggested that IF we were to leave, and IF the result was for the Syrians and the Iranians to make an Iraqi land grab, that would likely work out much better for Iraqis than how things will go if we hang around. > [@](#): > > why would that suddenly make anyone “in charge” an more than if we or the current Iraqi government declared martial law and put someone “in charge”? Because the Iranians and Syrians have, like, actual armies and stuff; the current Iraqi government doesn’t. It’s got us, of course, but we don’t know WTF we’re doing. I’ve said this to you in at least two threads before this one: it takes more than just being _put_ in charge to create a strongman. You get to be a strongman by winning a rather Darwinian game of demonstrating your ability to win the support of some, and dominate the rest. So can we put the “let’s appoint a strongman” approach to rest? Because any ‘strongman’ who needs to be _appointed_ is no strongman at all. Like Napoleon, a strongman grabs the crown and puts it on his _own_ head. > [@](#): > > I think we need to engage with Iran and Syria and that Bush is an idiot for trying to further isolate those two countries. But the idea that those countries want Iran carved up does not make sense in light of what we actually know. I never said they did. > [@](#): > > You might want to read this analysis from the Washington Post. Since we have repeatedly discussed partition, is there something in it that responds to arguments I’ve made? Because the part you quote is precisely the sort of thing my arguments have already responded _to_. > [@WaPo](#): > > “To envision that you can divide Iraq into three parts is to envision ethnic cleansing on a massive scale, sectarian killing on a massive scale,” Prince Turki al-Faisal, the Saudi ambassador to the United States, said Oct. 30 at a conference in Washington. As anyone can see, Iraq is _already_ experiencing ethnic cleansing on an increasingly large scale. Any reason to expect the scale shouldn’t continue to increase? Didn’t think so. Seems the one thing we could do about it would be to move Sunni Arabs, Shi’ites, and Kurds who are in parts of Iraq where they are in the minority, to parts of Iraq where they are in the majority, _ahead of the ethnic cleansing through violence and butchery that is already well underway_. We could enable that movement of peoples to take place in _relative_ safety, and when they got to where they were going, they’d be safer than they are now. Particularly, they’d be safe from being killed simply due to being of the wrong religion or ethnicity in the wrong place. That is what I’ve been arguing in the partition thread. What’s Faisal’s answer to that? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2006, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gee-is-it-tet-already/381559/34 "2006-11-24T20:05:55Z")
**RTF** : So, what point are you trying to make by bringing up a hypothetical and then saying you don’t support it and that it’s not likely to happen anyway? And what evidence do you have that things would be better other than your “guess”? The US is the richest, most powerful country in the world, and yet somehow Iran and Syria will be able to put a stronger force into Iraq? And if the only way they are going to achieve order is by using brutal tactics, why is that better than the brutal tactics being employed by the Iraqis themselves? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2006, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gee-is-it-tet-already/381559/35 "2006-11-24T21:56:08Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] **RTF** : So, what point are you trying to make by bringing up a hypothetical and then saying you don’t support it and that it’s not likely to happen anyway? [/quote] Maybe you didn’t read the part where I said several times that I didn’t bring it up; I was responding to another poster’s hypothetical. > [@](#): > > And what evidence do you have that things would be better other than your “guess”? You really want to follow **xtisme** ’s hypothetical down to the bitter end, don’t you? Your choice of points that you want to pursue, come hell or high water, gives me pause these days. It so often seems to be the peripheral stuff that ultimately has nothing to do with the main issues of the thread that you want me to spell out my reasoning in great detail. At least this is better than the Lieberman thread, where you repeatedly demanded that I defend a point I wasn’t even making. Here, at least, I did make the assertion you’re challenging, but really, what’s the likelihood that there’s going to be an attempt at an Iran-Syria partition of Iraq? But my answer is: can they do worse than us? > [@](#): > > The US is the richest, most powerful country in the world, and yet somehow Iran and Syria will be able to put a stronger force into Iraq? Strength isn’t everything. We’ve got the _strength_ to turn Iraq into a sheet of radioactive glass, but since we at least in theory are here for humanitarian reasons, that isn’t exactly helpful. Syrians, surprise surprise, speak Arabic. They’re also mostly Sunni. Think there’s a chance they might be able to find at least some parts of the population in their side of Iraq that they can work with, and be able to distinguish friend from foe far better than we can? Iranians speak Farsi, of course. But they have a whole bunch of Arab neighbors, and they seem to be able to communicate with their Shi’ite friends in Iraq. Think Arabic is at least somewhat present as a second language among Iranians? Just a WAG. > [@](#): > > And if the only way they are going to achieve order is by using brutal tactics, why is that better than the brutal tactics being employed by the Iraqis themselves? Because I see little evidence that any one Iraqi faction can win out, and the splintering of the larger Iraqi factions into smaller ones is already underway. A brief but brutal war that ends in order is less evil than a cycle of brutality and violence that simply continues to spiral down into chaos. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2006, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gee-is-it-tet-already/381559/36 "2006-11-24T22:33:07Z")
[QUOTE=RTFirefly] Maybe you didn’t read the part where I said several times that I didn’t bring it up; I was responding to another poster’s hypothetical. [/quote] Actually, \*\*XT \*\*brought it up as a possible consequence of someone’s hypothetical, but was himself saying it was something we should avoid. > [@](#): > > You really want to follow **xtisme** ’s hypothetical down to the bitter end, don’t you? Your choice of points that you want to pursue, come hell or high water, gives me pause these days. It so often seems to be the peripheral stuff that ultimately has nothing to do with the main issues of the thread that you want me to spell out my reasoning in great detail. > > At least this is better than the Lieberman thread, where you repeatedly demanded that I defend a point I wasn’t even making. Here, at least, I did make the assertion you’re challenging, but really, what’s the likelihood that there’s going to be an attempt at an Iran-Syria partition of Iraq? You really seem to often want to makes these debates personal, which give me a lot of pause these days. Feel free to ignore my posts in the future if you like. And, as others have aleady pointed out, the “main issue” of this thread is empty. This is not The Tet Offensive. > [@](#): > > But my answer is: can they do worse than us? Strength isn’t everything. We’ve got the _strength_ to turn Iraq into a sheet of radioactive glass, but since we at least in theory are here for humanitarian reasons, that isn’t exactly helpful. Can they do worse than us? Yes, I think so, and so do many of the experts quoted in the WaPo story I linked to. > [@](#): > > Syrians, surprise surprise, speak Arabic. They’re also mostly Sunni. Think there’s a chance they might be able to find at least some parts of the population in their side of Iraq that they can work with, and be able to distinguish friend from foe far better than we can? Syrians are mostly Sunni, but the ruling class is Shi’a. Why would they ally with Sunni Arabs in Iraq? > [@](#): > > Iranians speak Farsi, of course. But they have a whole bunch of Arab neighbors, and they seem to be able to communicate with their Shi’ite friends in Iraq. Think Arabic is at least somewhat present as a second language among Iranians? Just a WAG. I have no doubt that the Shiites in Iraq want close and friendly relations with Iran, and that they would communicate together fairly easily. But it escapes me how it would be in the strategic interst of the US to surrender large parts of Iraq to Iranian control. If we were to redeploy the troops as someone like Murtha suggests, I’m sure even he would say that the introduction of Iranian forces into Iraq would be a reason to bring our troops back in so that we could repel them. > [@](#): > > Because I see little evidence that any one Iraqi faction can win out, and the splintering of the larger Iraqi factions into smaller ones is already underway. A brief but brutal war that ends in order is less evil than a cycle of brutality and violence that simply continues to spiral down into chaos. As others pointed out in your Partition thread, there is no reason to think that such a war would be brief and every reason to think it would long be and protracted. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2006, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gee-is-it-tet-already/381559/37 "2006-11-24T22:56:52Z")
Those reasons being what, exactly? You appear to be adopting a contrarian stance here: everybody is wrong but you, and you are only right because everybody else is wrong. For myself,I have no idea whether such a struggle would be protracted or no. I cannot pierce the fog and all information is tainted by agenda. How then, I wonder, can friend **John** be so positive in his assertions? What are the facts that lead him inexorably to his conclusions? So I’ll ask. What are these facts, or are they merely conjectures offered with a tone of authority? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2006, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gee-is-it-tet-already/381559/38 "2006-11-24T23:08:30Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] Those reasons being what, exactly? You appear to be adopting a contrarian stance here: everybody is wrong but you… [quote] Please show me where I’ve said everyone is wrong but me. I disagree with **RTF** ’s analysis, and I’ve given reasons and cites, but \*\*XT \*\*seems to be agreeing with what I say. Further, the plan which I have consistently advocated wrt to our troops in Iraq is pretty much what the concensus opinion of the Democrats seems to be forming around-- a phases withdrawl starting sometime early next year. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2006, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gee-is-it-tet-already/381559/39 "2006-11-24T23:19:52Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] You really seem to often want to makes these debates personal, which give me a lot of pause these days. Feel free to ignore my posts in the future if you like. And, as others have aleady pointed out, the “main issue” of this thread is empty. This is not The Tet Offensive. [/quote] Funny, that’s exactly what I thought you were doing in the Lieberman thread, by repeatedly demanding that I defend a particular stance, despite the fact that my assertion in that debate wasn’t the stance itself, but the claim that many others as well as myself took it. I felt that was a considerable overstepping of boundaries, and a personalization of the debate. > [@](#): > > Can they do worse than us? Yes, I think so, and so do many of the experts quoted in the WaPo story I linked to. I’ve skimmed the article, but I don’t see where any experts opined on how Iraq would fare under some combination of Syrian and Iranian rule. > [@](#): > > Syrians are mostly Sunni, but the ruling class is Shi’a. Why would they ally with Sunni Arabs in Iraq? Try putting it the other way around, and see if it makes sense. If you’re a Sunni Arab in Iraq, which Shi’ites would you feel less threatened by - the Sadrists and the SCIRI/Badr gang, or Assad & Co.? > [@](#): > > I have no doubt that the Shiites in Iraq want close and friendly relations with Iran, and that they would communicate together fairly easily. But it escapes me how it would be in the strategic interst of the US to surrender large parts of Iraq to Iranian control. Because we would consider that, distasteful though it might be, to be preferable to the bloodshed of Sadrists and Badrists and who knows how many lesser players fighting it out for control of southeastern Iraq? It would be nice if we were to prove, at least for a moment, that this war hadn’t really been all about oil. > [@](#): > > As others pointed out in your Partition thread, there is no reason to think that such a war would be brief and every reason to think it would long be and protracted. Gotta keep your partitions straight. 🙂 **Tamerlane** , who I think is the person you’re mainly referring to, said absolutely nothing about the prospects of an Iranian-Syrian partition of Arab Iraq in that thread. I doubt anyone else did; I don’t think the issue ever came up. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2006, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gee-is-it-tet-already/381559/40 "2006-11-24T23:34:18Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] I disagree with **RTF** ’s analysis, and I’ve given reasons and cites, but \*\*XT \*\*seems to be agreeing with what I say. [/quote] How’s that? **XT** hasn’t posted since his remark about Iran and Syria got us into this whole kerfluffle. In what sense can you say he agrees with you in the debate we’re having that stemmed from that remark?? > [@](#): > > Further, the plan which I have consistently advocated wrt to our troops in Iraq is pretty much what the concensus opinion of the Democrats seems to be forming around-- a phases withdrawl starting sometime early next year. That part, I have no problem with. Where I keep on tripping up with your proposals is your belief that we can install a strongman who will be able to bring some degree of order to Iraq. Might want to read what **madmonk28** [has to say about that](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=7995533&postcount=5), since he’s a poster with some firsthand experience over thataway: > [@madmonk28](#): > > > [@Inigo Montoya](#): > > > > It seems clear to me that Saddam must have been effective in some capacity at keeping this sort of nonsense in check. It would follow that leadership of Iraq should bear a strong resemblance to his regime if any amount of order is to be restored as Western Military authority doesn’t seem to impress anyone in the region. Which leads me to two questions: > > > > 1. Is this a fair assessment? > > 2. Could even Saddam rein in this horse at this point? > > I think the toothpaste is out of the tube and that now, it is impossible to restablish that kind of order. The Shi’a are not going to allow the creation of a new strongman, nor are the Kurds. Also, Iran is exerting an unprecedented level of influence that is not abating. There is little, if any constraints on Irans behavior right now, and I don’t see any likely constraints emerging in the near future. **madmonk** also believes that this is likely to spread into a wider war, _contra_ to the position I took a few posts up. He’s undoubtedly the better judge of that. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gee-is-it-tet-already/381559.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gee-is-it-tet-already/381559.md?page=3)