# General Statistics Question **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [January 9, 2004, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-statistics-question/223631 "2004-01-09T13:30:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 7\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2004, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-statistics-question/223631/1 "2004-01-09T13:30:06Z")
If the odds of an outcome are 220:1, what are the odds that it will occur three times in a row? Also, to make this of a little more general interest, could someone give a few basic rules of statistics? ---
**Author:** ![Quercus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/7ab992/32.png) [@Quercus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quercus)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2004, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-statistics-question/223631/2 "2004-01-09T13:58:44Z")
If the chance of a happening once are 1 out of 220, then the chance of it three times in a row is 1/220_1/220_1/220 about 1 in 10 million. BUT, that can be misleading depending on the circumstances, which you didn’t specify. After all in the three trials, SOMETHING has to happen. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2004, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-statistics-question/223631/3 "2004-01-09T14:51:18Z")
I was playing Texas Hold 'Em poker. For those who don’t know, every one is first dealt two cards, and then you bet. I was dealt two nines three times in a row. You are a 220:1 underdog to be dealt any specific pair. Wow! ---
**Author:** ![aahala](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a88e4f/32.png) [@aahala](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aahala)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2004, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-statistics-question/223631/4 "2004-01-09T15:22:24Z")
Putting a finer point to it, odds of 220:1 indicate you have one chance in 221, not 220. In this case, you have 4 chances out of 52 for the first card being a nine. When the first card is a nine, the second has 3 chances out of 53 . So the first two cards being a nine would be 4/52 times 3/53 = 1/221 ---
**Author:** ![aahala](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a88e4f/32.png) [@aahala](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aahala)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2004, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-statistics-question/223631/5 "2004-01-09T15:24:25Z")
Typo!! “53” should have been “51”. ---
**Author:** ![DanBlather](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f4b2a3/32.png) [@DanBlather](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DanBlather)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2004, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-statistics-question/223631/6 "2004-01-09T15:29:32Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Fiddle Peghead \* > \*\*I was playing Texas Hold 'Em poker. For those who don’t know, every one is first dealt two cards, and then you bet. I was dealt two nines three times in a row. You are a 220:1 underdog to be dealt any specific pair. Wow! \*\* The chances of being dealt the first pair (which could be any pair) is 3/51 (17:1). The chances of getting the same pair again in the next hand is 4/52 \* 3/51 (or 221:1) . Thus: 3/51 \* (4/52 \* 3/51) \* (4/52 \* 3/51) or about one in 830,000. I still don’t want to play poker against you however 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2004, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-statistics-question/223631/7 "2004-01-09T16:42:34Z")
Ah, and important point there, Dan. And why wouldn’t you want to play against me. Don’t you like easy money?