# General: US Forces May Be Reduced by Next Year **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [June 23, 2007, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-us-forces-may-be-reduced-by-next-year/409076 "2007-06-23T01:30:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 18\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2007, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-us-forces-may-be-reduced-by-next-year/409076/1 "2007-06-23T01:30:31Z")
[I’m not sure if this means we’ll know if the surge is working before then or not.](http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5750513) > [@](#): > > The U.S. may be able to reduce combat forces in Iraq by next spring if Iraq’s own security forces continue to grow and improve, a senior American commander said Friday. He denied reports the U.S. is arming Sunni insurgent groups to help in the fight against al-Qaida. > > Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, the top day-to-day commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, did not predict any reductions in U.S. forces but said such redeployments may be feasible by spring. There are currently 156,000 U.S. troops in Iraq. IOW, “I’ve been authorized to say that the war may actually be within measurable distance of the end.” Of course, Odierno’s statement doesn’t exactly square with what [another US general had to say.](http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2007/06/14/news/nation/15_45_526_13_07.txt) > [@](#): > > In an assessment he termed cautiously optimistic, Maj. Gen. Martin Dempsey told a Pentagon news conference that Iraqi security forces are gradually improving in skill and commitment. However, he said, they must be expanded again next year to fill gaps in units in Baghdad. > [@](#): > > Dempsey, who commanded the 1st Armored Division in the early stages of the Iraq war, said the first Iraqi army battalions that came to Baghdad as part of the U.S.-led security push earlier this year arrived with 50 percent to 60 percent of their assigned soldiers. The units that replaced them did better, at 75 percent, he said. > > To boost that to at least 85 percent, Petraeus recommended – with Iraqi government agreement – that the Iraqi army be expanded by another 20,000 soldiers this year, Dempsey said. It’s not clear how soon that would be done. > > Asked whether he expected that the next Iraqi units to rotate into Baghdad would be even more thinly manned and less capable than those operating in the capital now, Dempsey replied, “I’m absolutely convinced that’s exactly what we’ll see.” If _that’s_ “cautiously optimistic,” I’d hate to see what an overly pessimistic assessment from him would look like. Of course, [this isn’t the first time we’ve been told troop reductions are coming.](http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/25/world/middleeast/25military.html?ex=1308888000&en=f51dc3bd1a5ff247&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss) > [@](#): > > The top American commander in Iraq has drafted a plan that projects sharp reductions in the United States military presence there by the end of 2007, with the first cuts coming this September, American officials say. > > According to a classified briefing at the Pentagon this week by the commander, Gen. George W. Casey Jr., the number of American combat brigades in Iraq is projected to decrease to 5 or 6 from the current level of 14 by December 2007. Yeah, that worked well, didn’t it. :rolleyes: Oh yeah, as a final kicker, [the intelligence agencies get to say, “We told you so!”](http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/nationworld/story/71622.html) > [@](#): > > Two months before the invasion of Iraq, U.S. intelligence agencies twice warned the Bush administration that establishing a democracy there would prove a difficult challenge and that al-Qaida would use political instability to increase its operations, according to a Senate report released Friday. > > The report, issued by the Senate Intelligence Committee, brought to light once-classified warnings that accurately forecasted many of the specific military and political problems the Bush administration and Iraqi officials have faced since the invasion in March 2003. > > The report also details that these warnings were distributed to senior officials with daily access to President Bush and others at the top of the administration. We are so unrelentingly fucked, aren’t we? ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2007, 1:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-us-forces-may-be-reduced-by-next-year/409076/2 "2007-06-23T01:33:11Z")
Wait a minute. I distinctly remember the President giving a speech on a carrier with a banner proclaiming “mission accomplish”. Are you telling me we’re still fighting that same war? Marc ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2007, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-us-forces-may-be-reduced-by-next-year/409076/3 "2007-06-23T01:45:43Z")
[QUOTE=MGibson] Wait a minute. I distinctly remember the President giving a speech on a carrier with a banner proclaiming “mission accomplish”. Are you telling me we’re still fighting that same war? [/QUOTE] No way, dude. We’ve ended “major combat operations” in Iraq. This is all just a bit of tidying up. Like the Marshall Plan, only with [billions of dollars of cash being anonymously dumped out of the back of trucks](http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,2008189,00.html). Don’t you remember when Bush landed on an aircraft like some cheesy hero out of a bad Clive Cussler novel[sup]\*[/sup] and announced this? Jeesh. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2007, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-us-forces-may-be-reduced-by-next-year/409076/4 "2007-06-23T01:56:38Z")
A lot of mischief can be hidden in that word “reduced”. ---
**Author:** ![Bill\_Door](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@Bill\_Door](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bill_Door)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2007, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-us-forces-may-be-reduced-by-next-year/409076/5 "2007-06-23T02:35:20Z")
So how come we can take a raw recruit, give him or her nine weeks of basic training, add on whatever AIT they need for their specialty, and they’re ready to go? We’ve been training the Iraquis for what, five years now? Sound like slow learners to me. Those guys couldn’t organize a fart at a bean eating contest. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2007, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-us-forces-may-be-reduced-by-next-year/409076/6 "2007-06-23T02:50:07Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] A lot of mischief can be hidden in that word “reduced”. [/QUOTE] Yes, won’t the troops be surprised when they find themselves boiling in a solution of ethanolic sodium borohydride. But then, **someone** has to _pay_ to keep the generals honest, and they _did_ all volunteer for the mission. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Moto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de0a6/32.png) [@Mr.Moto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Moto)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2007, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-us-forces-may-be-reduced-by-next-year/409076/7 "2007-06-23T02:56:22Z")
[QUOTE=Bill Door] So how come we can take a raw recruit, give him or her nine weeks of basic training, add on whatever AIT they need for their specialty, and they’re ready to go? We’ve been training the Iraquis for what, five years now? Sound like slow learners to me. Those guys couldn’t organize a fart at a bean eating contest. [/QUOTE] You can build an E-1 that way, sure. But it takes a few more years to build his squad leader, a few more years on top of that to build his sarge. Building an entire NCO corps, commissioned officer corps, various military academies and schools to train them, logistics chains to feed them, a banking structure to pay them - you think our own Army built these things in five fucking years? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2007, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-us-forces-may-be-reduced-by-next-year/409076/8 "2007-06-23T02:58:59Z")
[QUOTE=Mr. Moto] You can build an E-1 that way, sure. But it takes a few more years to build his squad leader, a few more years on top of that to build his sarge. Building an entire NCO corps, commissioned officer corps, various military academies and schools to train them, logistics chains to feed them, a banking structure to pay them - you think our own Army built these things in five fucking years? [/QUOTE] Yeah, it’s too bad there weren’t any existing trained military/police types in Iraq when we got there. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2007, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-us-forces-may-be-reduced-by-next-year/409076/9 "2007-06-23T03:23:01Z")
[QUOTE=John Mace] Yeah, it’s too bad there weren’t any existing trained military/police types in Iraq when we got there. [/QUOTE] Yeah, too bad we didn’t put Hermann Göring in charge of post-war Germany’s military! ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2007, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-us-forces-may-be-reduced-by-next-year/409076/10 "2007-06-23T03:26:27Z")
[QUOTE=elucidator] A lot of mischief can be hidden in that word “reduced”. [/QUOTE] “We meant we could begin reducing the rate of increase in troop numbers.” ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2007, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-us-forces-may-be-reduced-by-next-year/409076/11 "2007-06-23T03:32:30Z")
[QUOTE=Tuckerfan] [I’m not sure if this means we’ll know if the surge is working before then or not.](http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5750513)IOW, “I’ve been authorized to say that the war may actually be within measurable distance of the end.” [/quote] Not sure how you gathered that from what he said. What does our troop level have to do with whether or not the war ends? He could have told us “I have been ordered to start moving every single one of our guys out by the end of 2007, no exceptions” and that still wouldn’t be him saying the war is within measurable distance of the end. You confuse _U.S. involvement in the war_ with the war itself. The war won’t end just because we aren’t there–of course, even the quote you have here doesn’t suggest we won’t be there, just that we _may_ reduce troop levels, so far from saying the war is nearing an end I’m not sure how you even made that association to be honest. > [@](#): > > Of course, Odierno’s statement doesn’t exactly square with what [another US general had to say.](http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2007/06/14/news/nation/15_45_526_13_07.txt) I see no contradiction in the two articles at all. The first article you linked said that we _may_ be able to reduce troop levels next year if the Iraqi forces continue developing in an acceptable manner. Your second article quotes Dempsey saying that he believes we should expect a reduction in U.S. troop level and focus on building the Iraqi Army for when that day comes. Not only do they not contradict one another, they almost say the exact same thing, the only real difference is Dempsey also included some comments about the problems the Iraqi forces have faced; note that his overarching analysis was: > [@](#): > > the 2008 increase [of Iraqi forces] would take into consideration the continuing violence, lessons learned during the U.S. buildup for the ongoing Baghdad security operation, and the fact that “at some point we should anticipate a decline in U.S. forces and should build the Iraqi army … in anticipation of that.” ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2007, 4:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-us-forces-may-be-reduced-by-next-year/409076/12 "2007-06-23T04:53:57Z")
[QUOTE=Martin Hyde] Yeah, too bad we didn’t put Hermann Göring in charge of post-war Germany’s military! [/QUOTE] Oh yeah? Well how would you like it if Hitler killed your family! ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2007, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-us-forces-may-be-reduced-by-next-year/409076/13 "2007-06-23T05:42:00Z")
[QUOTE=Bill Door] So how come we can take a raw recruit, give him or her nine weeks of basic training, add on whatever AIT they need for their specialty, and they’re ready to go? We’ve been training the Iraquis for what, five years now? Sound like slow learners to me. Those guys couldn’t organize a fart at a bean eating contest. [/QUOTE] The Iraqis get 8 days of training. I dont see the problem. Must be easy. ---
**Author:** ![Hung\_Mung](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/a88e4f/32.png) [@Hung\_Mung](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hung_Mung)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2007, 6:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-us-forces-may-be-reduced-by-next-year/409076/14 "2007-06-23T06:53:25Z")
[QUOTE=Martin Hyde] Yeah, too bad we didn’t put Hermann Göring in charge of post-war Germany’s military! [/QUOTE] Yeah, too bad Hitler didn’t rape your _mother_! ---
**Author:** ![Tuckerfan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/eada6e/32.png) [@Tuckerfan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuckerfan)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2007, 1:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-us-forces-may-be-reduced-by-next-year/409076/15 "2007-06-23T13:10:47Z")
[QUOTE=Martin Hyde] Not sure how you gathered that from what he said. What does our troop level have to do with whether or not the war ends? He could have told us “I have been ordered to start moving every single one of our guys out by the end of 2007, no exceptions” and that still wouldn’t be him saying the war is within measurable distance of the end. You confuse _U.S. involvement in the war_ with the war itself. The war won’t end just because we aren’t there–of course, even the quote you have here doesn’t suggest we won’t be there, just that we _may_ reduce troop levels, so far from saying the war is nearing an end I’m not sure how you even made that association to be honest. [/quote] Obviously you’re not familiar with Orwell’s writings, or you’d be able to recognize where that comes from. > [@](#): > > I see no contradiction in the two articles at all. The first article you linked said that we _may_ be able to reduce troop levels next year if the Iraqi forces continue developing in an acceptable manner. Your second article quotes Dempsey saying that he believes we should expect a reduction in U.S. troop level and focus on building the Iraqi Army for when that day comes. Not only do they not contradict one another, they almost say the exact same thing, the only real difference is Dempsey also included some comments about the problems the Iraqi forces have faced; note that his overarching analysis was: “At some point” means when, exactly? “At some point” could be tomorrow, or it could be 200 years from now, whereas Odierno is talking about “next spring.” Unless you’re playing Abbott and Costello, then “next spring” is a pretty definite time frame. Also, given that Dempsey says that the next group of Iraqi units will have _fewer_ personnel and that they will be even more poorly trained than the current crop of Iraqi units, I don’t see how we can think that handing Iraq over to local forces can be “just around the corner.” ---
**Author:** ![Bill\_Door](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@Bill\_Door](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bill_Door)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2007, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-us-forces-may-be-reduced-by-next-year/409076/16 "2007-06-23T14:57:06Z")
[QUOTE=Mr. Moto] You can build an E-1 that way, sure. But it takes a few more years to build his squad leader, a few more years on top of that to build his sarge. Building an entire NCO corps, commissioned officer corps, various military academies and schools to train them, logistics chains to feed them, a banking structure to pay them - you think our own Army built these things in five fucking years? [/QUOTE] We couldda sent them to West Point in five fucking years. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2007, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-us-forces-may-be-reduced-by-next-year/409076/17 "2007-06-23T15:19:01Z")
[QUOTE=MGibson] Wait a minute. I distinctly remember the President giving a speech on a carrier with a banner proclaiming “mission accomplish”. Are you telling me we’re still fighting that same war? [/QUOTE] You’d be surprised how long a war can last, Yankee. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2007, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/general-us-forces-may-be-reduced-by-next-year/409076/18 "2007-06-23T15:30:39Z")
A couple months ago stories came out that we would no longer concentrate on training Iraqis . Last week I read a story on the US killing a guy setting up an IED. He was a Lieutenant in the Iraqi army and we trained him. It is a mess. But we have a huge embassy to poice and maintain.