# Geomagnetic Storm probability 70%! **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [September 13, 2005, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/geomagnetic-storm-probability-70/321499 "2005-09-13T22:27:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![rowrrbazzle](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rowrrbazzle/32/414_2.png) [@rowrrbazzle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rowrrbazzle)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2005, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/geomagnetic-storm-probability-70/321499/1 "2005-09-13T22:27:51Z")
from [http://www.sec.noaa.gov/forecast.html](http://www.sec.noaa.gov/forecast.html) > [@](#): > > Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to minor storm levels on 14 September. **On 15 September, major to severe storm periods are possible due to the expected arrival of the CME associated with today’s X1 flare.** Conditions should subside to mostly unsettled to active levels by 16 September, with isolated minor storm periods possible. ```auto VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/10/30 Minor storm 20/20/15 Major-severe storm 10/ **70** /05 B. High Latitudes Active 35/10/30 Minor storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 15/ **70** /10 ``` Keep your eyes on the skies. [http://www.sec.noaa.gov/today.html](http://www.sec.noaa.gov/today.html) Watch the estimated Kp index in the “satellite environment plot” at the bottom. [http://www.spacew.com](http://www.spacew.com) aurora info [http://www.spacew.com/www/auroras.php](http://www.spacew.com/www/auroras.php) auroral activity sighting reports [http://www.spaceweather.com](http://www.spaceweather.com) more info ---
**Author:** ![astro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9dc877/32.png) [@astro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astro)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2005, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/geomagnetic-storm-probability-70/321499/2 "2005-09-13T22:44:22Z")
Should we be unplugging stuff or surrounding our houses with tinfoil levees? ---
**Author:** ![clairobscur](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/839c29/32.png) [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2005, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/geomagnetic-storm-probability-70/321499/3 "2005-09-13T22:47:34Z")
> [@astro](#): > > Should we be unplugging stuff or surrounding our houses with tinfoil levees? I think the idea is that you should look for beautiful northern lights if you live at a high enough latitude… ---
**Author:** ![astro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9dc877/32.png) [@astro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astro)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2005, 10:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/geomagnetic-storm-probability-70/321499/4 "2005-09-13T22:54:19Z")
> [@clairobscur](#): > > I think the idea is that you should look for beautiful northern lights if you live at a high enough latitude… To boring! I wanna see some sparks! ---
**Author:** ![bizzwire](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/958977/32.png) [@bizzwire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bizzwire)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2005, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/geomagnetic-storm-probability-70/321499/5 "2005-09-13T23:41:43Z")
What’s a “CME?” ---
**Author:** ![Revtim](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/revtim/32/1042_2.png) [@Revtim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Revtim)\ **Post date:** [September 13, 2005, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/geomagnetic-storm-probability-70/321499/6 "2005-09-13T23:43:08Z")
Time to put up the faraday shutters. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2005, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/geomagnetic-storm-probability-70/321499/7 "2005-09-14T01:13:59Z")
Is that why I can’t get my favorite radio station to tune in at work? ---
**Author:** ![Seven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Seven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Seven)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2005, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/geomagnetic-storm-probability-70/321499/8 "2005-09-14T01:16:42Z")
> [@bizzwire](#): > > What’s a “CME?” coronal mass ejection ---
**Author:** ![vibrotronica](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/a9a28c/32.png) [@vibrotronica](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/vibrotronica)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2005, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/geomagnetic-storm-probability-70/321499/9 "2005-09-14T01:29:45Z")
Great. I’m flying tomorrow. It’s like a free chest X-ray! Does an event like this have the potential to disrupt air-to-ground communication? ---
**Author:** ![Shagnasty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9dc877/32.png) [@Shagnasty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shagnasty)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2005, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/geomagnetic-storm-probability-70/321499/10 "2005-09-14T01:38:22Z")
> [@Seven](#): > > coronal mass ejection Somebody missed school the day they taught science. It’s **Coronal Massive Ejaculation.** ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2005, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/geomagnetic-storm-probability-70/321499/11 "2005-09-14T01:41:31Z")
Yes, it can disrupt radio communications but don’t expect to fall out of the sky or anything like that - there is both redundancy and some robustness in aviation communications. It’s not like the airlines haven’t had to deal with this before. Transmissions get a load of static, that’s about it. And, don’t forget - it’s not the radios that hold up the airplane, it’s the wings and engines, neither of which are suspectible to the effects of CME’s and geomagnetic storms. In other words, you’ll be fine, don’t worry about it. ---
**Author:** ![Shirley\_Ujest](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/45deac/32.png) [@Shirley\_Ujest](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shirley_Ujest)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2005, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/geomagnetic-storm-probability-70/321499/12 "2005-09-14T01:45:32Z")
It’s the end of the World as we know it… and I feel fine. ---
**Author:** ![CynicalGabe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/3e96dc/32.png) [@CynicalGabe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CynicalGabe)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2005, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/geomagnetic-storm-probability-70/321499/13 "2005-09-14T01:53:49Z")
Crap. I still have to buy a new geomagnetic umbrella! ---
**Author:** ![Antigen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/848f3c/32.png) [@Antigen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Antigen)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2005, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/geomagnetic-storm-probability-70/321499/14 "2005-09-14T02:03:17Z")
See, I never know where to look. Just up, or near the horizon? Right after sunset, or later? Can someone fill me in so I stop missing all the fun? I must be able to see _something_, I’m in _Canada_! ---
**Author:** ![SteveG1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bb73d2/32.png) [@SteveG1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SteveG1)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2005, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/geomagnetic-storm-probability-70/321499/15 "2005-09-14T02:47:55Z")
I plan to break out the telescope and solar filters (Thousand Oaks filter), and look at the sunspots 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Duke\_of\_Rat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Duke\_of\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duke_of_Rat)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2005, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/geomagnetic-storm-probability-70/321499/16 "2005-09-14T03:05:13Z")
> [@Antigen](#): > > See, I never know where to look. Just up, or near the horizon? Right after sunset, or later? Can someone fill me in so I stop missing all the fun? > > I must be able to see _something_, I’m in _Canada_! I’d look towards the North. That’s where the storm interacts with the Earth’s magnetic field the greatest I think. ---
**Author:** ![Sunspace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunspace/32/1250_2.png) [@Sunspace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunspace)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2005, 3:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/geomagnetic-storm-probability-70/321499/17 "2005-09-14T03:19:25Z")
I had a great view of the Northern Lights as we drove northward up Highway 62 a couple of weeks ago. Then the car died. But that was unrelated. I think. ---
**Author:** ![CynicalGabe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/3e96dc/32.png) [@CynicalGabe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CynicalGabe)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2005, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/geomagnetic-storm-probability-70/321499/18 "2005-09-14T04:24:52Z")
> [@Sunspace](#): > > I had a great view of the Northern Lights as we drove northward up Highway 62 a couple of weeks ago. > > Then the car died. But that was unrelated. I think. Don’t you people _ever_ watch the X Files?? ---
**Author:** ![Seven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Seven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Seven)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2005, 6:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/geomagnetic-storm-probability-70/321499/19 "2005-09-14T06:23:20Z")
> [@Shagnasty](#): > > Somebody missed school the day they taught science. It’s **Coronal Massive Ejaculation.** I love it when you talk dirty. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 14, 2005, 6:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/geomagnetic-storm-probability-70/321499/20 "2005-09-14T06:52:44Z")
In case anyone couldn’t tell, **Shagnasty** was joking. It really is “coronal mass ejection”. **Antigen** , the Northern Lights can be anywhere in the sky. Most often, they’re close to the horizon, but they can be directly overhead, or even a bit south of the zenith, and I once saw an aurora which literally filled the entire sky. But your best bet is near the horizon to the north. And you don’t want right after sunset, since there will still be a fair bit of twilight in the sky for a couple of hours or so. Best to look at around midnight. Incidentally, this particular bout of activity has the solar physicists very excited. This was the fifth-brightest X-flare ever observed, even despite it actually being a bit around the limb of the Sun (that is to say, it was just barely on the far side), so you know it was a big one… But the region of the Sun it came from gave no prior indication of any activity at all, and there shouldn’t be much activity anywhere on the Sun right now, since we ought to be at solar minimum now. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/geomagnetic-storm-probability-70/321499.md?page=2)