# Georgia senate runoff elections. Let’s debate and make predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 7, 2020, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015 "2020-11-07T23:16:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/241 "2021-01-06T02:03:52Z")
As expected. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/242 "2021-01-06T02:05:56Z")
But this particular vote dump was expected to be strongly Republican, so it was already baked into the predictions. Needle hasn’t moved. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/243 "2021-01-06T02:19:43Z")
Wow! This is looking really, really good so far. I was not particularly hopeful. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/244 "2021-01-06T02:22:11Z")
The NPR page is a lot less encouraging right at the moment. [Live Results: Georgia Senate Runoff Elections : NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/01/05/953245235/georgia-senate-runoffs-to-determine-which-party-controls-chamber) – is the idea that there are still a lot of votes to come in from blue areas? ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/245 "2021-01-06T02:23:16Z")
> [@thorny\_locust](#): > > is the idea that there are still a lot of votes to come in from blue areas? Yes. Ossoff’s race looks like it will be the nail biter, though. Warnock is doing really well. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/246 "2021-01-06T02:31:53Z")
FWIW, NY Times needle is bullish on Warnock and Ossoff with 70% of the vote in. 75% shot for Warnock and 64% shot for Ossoff. ---
**Author:** ![Nars\_Glinley](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nars_glinley/32/8177_2.png) [@Nars\_Glinley](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nars_Glinley)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/247 "2021-01-06T02:32:12Z")
I’ve got a very bad feeling about this. ISTM that it’s very rare for someone to get out to a big lead, lose it, and then come back and win. I know that it can happen but it’s not the way elections usually go. ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/248 "2021-01-06T02:34:52Z")
FWIW: > We’ll see. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/249 "2021-01-06T02:36:11Z")
Now 76% in on NYT and 78% chance for Warnock to win and 66% chance for Ossoff to win ---
**Author:** ![Nars\_Glinley](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nars_glinley/32/8177_2.png) [@Nars\_Glinley](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nars_Glinley)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/250 "2021-01-06T02:39:47Z")
🙏 🙏 🙏[quote=“galen\_ubal, post:248, topic:925015, full:true”] FWIW: > We’ll see. [/quote] ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/251 "2021-01-06T02:39:49Z")
That’s…not how any of this work, you need to look at the count through a lens of what is missing and where it is missing from. Just because the smaller Republican counties can count faster due to only having tens of thousands of voters compared to hundreds of thousands for the Dem counties doesn’t mean they are “winning”. All they are winning is the counting speed. ---
**Author:** ![Nars\_Glinley](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nars_glinley/32/8177_2.png) [@Nars\_Glinley](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nars_Glinley)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/252 "2021-01-06T02:42:06Z")
I understand that. I’m just saying that it’s unusual. Perhaps that’s because I’m old and my frame of reference is years of watching elections that weren’t so divided upon racial and class lines. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/253 "2021-01-06T02:42:54Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > That’s…not how any of this work, you need to look at the count through a lens of what is missing and where it is missing from. In particular, what is different now (from the “early leader overtaken and never regaining the lead” state) is that now you have large numbers of votes that are counted early (Democratic-leaning), then you have small precincts returning in-person totals (Republican-leaning), and then finally you have large precincts returning in-person votes and remaining early votes (Democratic-leaning). So the previous paradigm has been upended a bit by what used to be an inconsequential number of votes (mail-in votes) now being both much larger and much more heavily tilted than usual. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/254 "2021-01-06T02:43:12Z")
I’d be willing to bet most of those years didn’t have up to the minute vote counts the very second election officials send them in though. You are not seeing “leads”, only counting speed. ---
**Author:** ![Nars\_Glinley](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nars_glinley/32/8177_2.png) [@Nars\_Glinley](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nars_Glinley)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/255 "2021-01-06T02:43:37Z")
Point taken. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/256 "2021-01-06T02:44:22Z")
I may have missed it, what was turnout like today in Atlanta metro? ---
**Author:** ![Nars\_Glinley](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nars_glinley/32/8177_2.png) [@Nars\_Glinley](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nars_Glinley)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/257 "2021-01-06T02:44:39Z")
I’d still feel better if Ossoff and Warnock had commanding leads. ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/258 "2021-01-06T02:44:52Z")
> Dave Wasserman is an editor at Cook Political Report. Again, FWIW. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/259 "2021-01-06T02:47:07Z")
Lots still to count in 82% DeKalb. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/260 "2021-01-06T02:48:32Z")
Matt Dowd on ABC is claiming that most of the remaining votes actually ARE early votes. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015.md?page=14)