# Georgia senate runoff elections. Let’s debate and make predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 7, 2020, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015 "2020-11-07T23:16:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 15
**Author:** ![Face\_Intentionally\_Left\_Blank](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/face_intentionally_left_blank/32/288_2.png) [@Face\_Intentionally\_Left\_Blank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Face_Intentionally_Left_Blank)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/281 "2021-01-06T03:23:27Z")
Awesome, if true. I just checked elsewhere, and with 85% counted, both democrats were losing by a couple points. I’m not getting my hopes dashed again, though. I’ll wait to get too excited. ---
**Author:** ![Guest-starring\_Id](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guest-starring_id/32/21736_2.png) [@Guest-starring\_Id](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guest-starring_Id)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/282 "2021-01-06T03:28:21Z")
Love the tweet “Martha McSally would like a word.” > [@Face\_Intentionally\_Left\_Blank](#): > > Awesome, if true. I just checked elsewhere, and with 85% counted, both democrats were losing by a couple points. I’m not getting my hopes dashed again, though. I’ll wait to get too excited. First I’ve heard of an R lead. What was the source? ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/283 "2021-01-06T03:28:36Z")
I’m not buying it yet. Still too many votes out for my taste. When Kornaki says it has happened then I will relax. At this point, to me, it looks really bad for Ossoff and Warnock. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/284 "2021-01-06T03:29:32Z")
> [@Guest-starring\_Id](#): > > First I’ve heard of an R lead. Look anywhere. Both R’s are ahead right now. It’s just a question of what’s left to come in. CNN: Loeffler 50.9%, Perdue 51.3% ---
**Author:** ![Guest-starring\_Id](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guest-starring_id/32/21736_2.png) [@Guest-starring\_Id](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guest-starring_Id)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/285 "2021-01-06T03:30:23Z")
Guess I’m following these past posts too closely, then. ---
**Author:** ![galen\_ubal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/galen_ubal/32/4440_2.png) [@galen\_ubal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/galen_ubal)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/286 "2021-01-06T03:32:40Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > > [@Guest-starring\_Id](#): > > > > First I’ve heard of an R lead. > > Look anywhere. Both R’s are ahead right now. It’s just a question of what’s left to come in. Which currently consists of lots from Dekalb and Cobb county (Atlanta area, and Dekalb tilts _very_ Democratic), and Chatham county (Warnock’s home county). I’m not calling it, but I’m pretty optimistic, and people who know more than I do are also very optimistic. ETA: Just saw that 171k+ votes from Dekalb are about to be uploaded. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 3:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/287 "2021-01-06T03:38:30Z")
> ---
**Author:** ![Face\_Intentionally\_Left\_Blank](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/face_intentionally_left_blank/32/288_2.png) [@Face\_Intentionally\_Left\_Blank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Face_Intentionally_Left_Blank)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/288 "2021-01-06T03:40:14Z")
Yeah, as others have said. . .I just typed [Georgia election](https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=georgia+election) into google and the results came up R. I really wanted this, as I know most here do. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/289 "2021-01-06T03:40:36Z")
> ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 3:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/290 "2021-01-06T03:43:39Z")
Priceless. ---
**Author:** ![Nars\_Glinley](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nars_glinley/32/8177_2.png) [@Nars\_Glinley](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nars_Glinley)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/291 "2021-01-06T03:46:02Z")
CNN is reporting that only 130,000 votes are outstanding in DeKalb. ---
**Author:** ![mhendo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mhendo/32/3159_2.png) [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/292 "2021-01-06T03:47:33Z")
Biden won DeKalb by about 84-16, so if the new set of DeKalb votes go in similar fashion, it should push Warnock ahead of Loeffler, and make the Ossoff/Perdue race incredibly close. One win per party is still a distinct possibility. The unfortunate things for Dems is that the most likely Democratic winner, Warnock, would have to defend his seat in two years. ---
**Author:** ![mhendo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mhendo/32/3159_2.png) [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/293 "2021-01-06T03:48:33Z")
> [@Nars\_Glinley](#): > > CNN is reporting that only 130,000 votes are outstanding in DeKalb. The tweet putting the number at 171,000 is from Gabriel Sterling, Georgia’s voting system implementation manager for the secretary of state’s office. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/294 "2021-01-06T03:50:56Z")
Yep > > > Blake Aued @BlakeAued ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/295 "2021-01-06T03:58:11Z")
What if there’s a statistical fluke and one of the Dems wins by 11,799 votes…? ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/296 "2021-01-06T03:58:51Z")
Ossoff is the nail biter. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/297 "2021-01-06T03:59:13Z")
So the NYT needle has it right now at 95%+ for Warnock and 89% for Ossoff ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 4:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/298 "2021-01-06T04:00:46Z")
There are still votes of all types outstanding. In Dekalb (very blue), over 200K total outstanding votes. 171K are early voting, 19K are mail-in, and 16k election day votes. Fulton County (very blue) has about 50K total votes outstanding. While Cobb (recently somewhat blue) has a bit over 50K outstanding votes, they appear to be mostly election day, which are expected to lean slightly red. I think Warnock is golden and Ossoff is highly likely at this point. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/299 "2021-01-06T04:02:24Z")
> [@ISiddiqui](#): > > So the NYT needle has it right now at 95%+ for Warnock and 89% for Ossoff Yup, and Predictit has them both over 90%. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 4:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/300 "2021-01-06T04:04:06Z")
Sterling confirms 171K on CNN live. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015.md?page=14) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015.md?page=16)