# Georgia senate runoff elections. Let’s debate and make predictions

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [November 7, 2020, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015 "2020-11-07T23:16:43Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 16

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**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/301 "2021-01-06T04:05:38Z")

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That is the Atlanta region early vote, yes?

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**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/302 "2021-01-06T04:06:22Z")

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It is.

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**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/303 "2021-01-06T04:06:33Z")

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> [@ISiddiqui](#):
>
> So the NYT needle has it right now at 95%+ for Warnock and 89% for Ossoff

Seven minutes later, and Ossoff is at 93%.

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**Author:** ![Nars\_Glinley](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nars_glinley/32/8177_2.png) [@Nars\_Glinley](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nars_Glinley)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/304 "2021-01-06T04:07:51Z")

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Seeing an election official making predictions seems weird.

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**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/305 "2021-01-06T04:09:55Z")

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When will these 171k votes drop?

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**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/306 "2021-01-06T04:10:00Z")

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> [@Nars\_Glinley](#):
>
> Seeing an election official making predictions seems weird.

We live in interesting times.

It’s not unreasonable for him to be giving a real-time live narrative on what’s happening, given the scrutiny - sorry, I should say blatant lying - that will inevitably ensue.

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**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/307 "2021-01-06T04:10:16Z")

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Cobb is the most suburban of the three. Dekalb (home for me) is more urban but stretches a bit north and east into suburbs, while Fulton is this oddity that looks like a gerrymandered voting district instead of a county, and stretches from southern suburbs to northern suburbs, but remains very liberal overall as they have a higher density inside the perimeter.

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**Author:** ![Guest-starring\_Id](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guest-starring_id/32/21736_2.png) [@Guest-starring\_Id](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guest-starring_Id)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/308 "2021-01-06T04:10:36Z")

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CBS46 Atlanta is reporting that Chatham county (Savannah) is having voting machine problems and the counting there will most likely go into the morning.

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**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/309 "2021-01-06T04:10:37Z")

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“Any minute now…”

Said many many minutes ago.

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**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/310 "2021-01-06T04:11:00Z")

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Maybe a bit. It is down to “ trouble child” votes and electronic downloads.

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**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/311 "2021-01-06T04:11:39Z")

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> [@Guest-starring\_Id](#):
>
> CBS46 Atlanta is reporting that Chatham county (Savannah) is having voting machine problems and the counting there will most likely go into the morning.

So there was a typo in the Dominion Algorithm?

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**Author:** ![Nars\_Glinley](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nars_glinley/32/8177_2.png) [@Nars\_Glinley](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nars_Glinley)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/312 "2021-01-06T04:12:58Z")

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> [@Babale](#):
>
> When will these 171k votes drop?

Hopefully before the President’s healthcare plan.

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**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/313 "2021-01-06T04:13:12Z")

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The best indicator that Warnock and Ossoff have won their races is that Republicans are already starting to howl that the races were rigged.

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**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/314 "2021-01-06T04:14:09Z")

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Got a link? I love yo see a good flailing

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**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/315 "2021-01-06T04:15:34Z")

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> [@Aspenglow](#):
>
> The best indicator that Warnock and Ossoff have won their races is that Republicans are already starting to howl that the races were rigged.

Predictit has a market for whether Loeffler will object to the result, and it has been running neck-and-neck with the market for the result itself.

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**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/316 "2021-01-06T04:15:51Z")

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Not yet. Sounds like most of the action is on Twitter, and I don’t do the Twit thing. However, it was just reported on MSNBC that the attacks are starting up. I think I heard Drudge mentioned.

ETA: Can you imagine what a crap show tomorrow is going to be?

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**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/317 "2021-01-06T04:18:21Z")

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From Nate Cohn at NYTimes:

> [@Nate Cohn](#):
>
> Ossoff now with a 94 percent chance to win. The fundamental GOP problem: Its vote is basically exhausted. Ossoff is favored to win the remaining vote by 36 points (he needs to win by 26 to prevail).

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**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/318 "2021-01-06T04:19:04Z")

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> **[Pair of Georgia runoff races are razor close with U.S. Senate control at stake](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/01/05/georgia-senate-election-results-live-updates/#link-4TFPX6K26ZE3DGRKDDBGLZHOWI)**
>
> It’s Election Day in Georgia where millions have already cast their votes in the two Senate runoff races. Republican incumbent David Perdue faces Democratic opponent Jon Ossoff. The other incumbent Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler is challenged by...

It’s not clear from the above, but the headline I linked to:

“Trump campaign tries to suggest voting machine error, since fixed, is something more sinister”

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**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/319 "2021-01-06T04:19:27Z")

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And HOLY SHIT THERE’S THE DROP OF VOTES!

It just went from Perdue ahead by 114K, to Perdue ahead by 2K. And the night’s not over.

Loeffler’s now behind by 32K.

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**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\
**Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/320 "2021-01-06T04:19:49Z")

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A big chunk of DeKalb just came in. Really good news for Warnock and Ossoff

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