# Georgia senate runoff elections. Let’s debate and make predictions **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 7, 2020, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015 "2020-11-07T23:16:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 30
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/583 "2021-01-06T17:52:34Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Moscow Mitch will not be able to play the Grim Reaper for four years In two years, he can become Majority Leader again, can’t he? ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/584 "2021-01-06T17:53:03Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > Movement on NYT site - Ossoff lead slightly larger! Kornacki on where the rest of the votes are coming from. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/mp7lIEHwfzY/maxresdefault.jpg "GA Election Official Predicts Ossoff May Gain Lead Outside Of Recount Percentage | Hallie Jackson") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mp7lIEHwfzY) ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/585 "2021-01-06T17:57:02Z")
Yes. Midterm effect notwithstanding, I like Dem chances to expand their lead in '22. Three GOP senators are retiring. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/586 "2021-01-06T17:57:21Z")
Certainly a possibility. But looking at the [map,](https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/) I don’t see a lot of places where the Democrats are going to lose. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/587 "2021-01-06T17:59:37Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > What sites are you following for the latest/most reliable Ossoff/Perdue results/analysis? Back in 2018, Josh Marshall put together a [Twitter feed of the people he considered to be the best election geeks](https://twitter.com/i/lists/706696973345107968). It’s been my go-to ever since. Not only does it include people like Nate Cohn of the NYT, Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, J. Miles Coleman of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics, but it has a lot of other really smart election geeks that you probably haven’t heard of. Yesterday evening, following that feed, I felt I knew exactly what was happening as it happened - and this morning, it was clearly no illusion. I went to bed at 10pm Eastern feeling pretty damn comfortable about the outcome. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/588 "2021-01-06T18:04:42Z")
Dems have a good shot at a hold in 2022, but there will be headwinds. Traditionally the President’s party loses seats in the first midterm election, although the trend is not as strong in the Senate as it is in the House. They have good opportunities for pickups in PA and NC where Republican incumbents are retiring, but they’ll also have two just-elected Senators back on the ballot in AZ and GA that are likely to face a strong challenge. ---
**Author:** ![Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/heffalump_and_roo/32/7691_2.png) [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Heffalump_and_Roo)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/589 "2021-01-06T18:06:04Z")
What publication does this come from? (click on blur spoiler at the bottom) > [@](#): > > As of this writing (1 a.m. Central time on Wednesday), there has been no official call of the two US Senate races in Georgia, but they are almost certainly going to go to the Democrats. Raphael Warnock is slightly ahead of Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, and though incumbent Sen. David Perdue ever so slightly leads Democrat Jon Ossoff, all the votes left to come in are from overwhelmingly Democratic areas. Unless there’s some miracle for the GOP, the state of Georgia’s Senate delegation has flipped to blue overnight, and Republicans have lost control of the US Senate. > > These things happen when a losing Republican president spends two months promoting crackpot conspiracy theories about how his election was stolen, and urging, and allowing his minions to urge, Georgia Republican voters to stay home to teach state GOP officials a lesson about how they ought to have served Trump’s interests rather than the law. [The American Conservative.](https://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/trump-costs-gop-the-senate-ossoff-warnock/) I’m a little surprised. I must have missed the memo where the conservatives were hating on Trump. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/590 "2021-01-06T18:08:02Z")
The chart [here](https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1346859466298417152) shows why there’s essentially no doubt about Ossoff’s win, and little doubt that he’ll clear the 0.5% recount threshold. There are ~50,000 ballots outstanding in counties that Ossoff leads (mostly by huge margins), and maybe 7000 ballots outstanding in counties Perdue leads. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/591 "2021-01-06T18:13:03Z")
> [@agzem](#): > > No I haven’t heard anything. It must be something really bad to the most openly racist campaign **EVER**. Who said it was “the most openly racist campaign **EVER** ”? Who made that claim? Can you cite it? ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/592 "2021-01-06T18:18:12Z")
> [@ISiddiqui](#): > > Not to mention that here in Georgia these sort of unsubstantiated bullshit accusations by a candidate running one of the most openly racist campaigns _I’ve ever seen_ most definitely helped get out the vote for Warnock. As someone said on Twitter, she pissed off the black church. Emphasis mine. Here is the original post. I presume that @ISiddiqui is too young (or at least in the wrong part of the country) to have seen some far more racist camlaigns during the Jim Crow era, or that he wasn’t around for the 1932 campaign for Germany’s federal government, or any of a huge number of other racist campaigns throughout history that would be included if he had said Loeffler ran the more racist campaign **eVeR.** ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/593 "2021-01-06T18:20:18Z")
Not just that, I said it was ‘one of the most’ as well. But I’m not shocked at the twisting of my words - I just chose not to engage with that nonsense. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/594 "2021-01-06T18:23:40Z")
[fist bump] ---
**Author:** ![mhendo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mhendo/32/3159_2.png) [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/595 "2021-01-06T18:30:31Z")
> [@Heffalump\_and\_Roo](#): > > I’m a little surprised. I must have missed the memo where the conservatives were hating on Trump. For anyone who cared to look, there have been conservatives criticizing Trump for much of the past four years, especially among the old-guard, mainstream conservative movement and its institutions. This is especially true outside of the corridors of power. Plenty of Republican lawmakers sacrificed principles to partisan self-interest, but much of the conservative intellectual movement has been pretty solidly against Trump. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/596 "2021-01-06T18:33:30Z")
The filibuster used to be a useful tool. It guaranteed some sort of cooperation. However, the GOP happily nuked the filibuster for SCOTUS noms as soon as the Dems used it. Thus, the filibuster has no value anymore, since the GOP has shown it will dump whatever parts they want , whenever they want. Mitch did that to himself. Mitch must be _so_ pissed now, since trump basically handed control of the senate to the Dems. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/597 "2021-01-06T18:44:45Z")
Um, you do realize that the cite you gave actually debunks the claim you were trying to make? > Others will speculate about the Clinton campaign’s intentions and motives, as they already have. But without further evidence to the contrary, we see no reason to conclude that this is anything more than a standard attempt to make an attack ad appear sinister, rather than a special effort to exploit racial bias as some Obama supporters are saying. ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/598 "2021-01-06T19:00:31Z")
Don’t you remember? He told us himself he’s tip-top-number-one super-double-plus the best at debunking liberal claims. Clearly this is an XK Red 27 reverse-psychology technique. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/599 "2021-01-06T19:38:56Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > He’ll be able to get nominees through, and can use budget reconciliation to get some stuff done, but with the filibuster he’d need ten Republicans to move any legislation. Did the Dems stop all legislation from getting thru? How often did the Democrats use the filibuster? ---
**Author:** ![agzem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/a8b319/32.png) [@agzem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/agzem)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 7:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/600 "2021-01-06T19:51:15Z")
You are correct. When Clinton darkened Obama’s skin it was just a " **standard attempt to make an attack ad appear sinister".** But with Kelly Loeffler we know that’s not the case. Her ad was straight up racist because she is a Republican. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/601 "2021-01-06T19:53:02Z")
> [@agzem](#): > > You are correct. When Clinton darkened Obama’s skin it was just a " **standard attempt to make an attack ad appear sinister".** But with Kelly Loeffler we know that’s not the case. Her ad was straight up racist because she is a Republican. Can we pause this meaningful discussion for just a moment while our Vice President, House Speaker, senators and representatives are under attack by a Pro-Trump mob? ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2021, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015/602 "2021-01-06T20:14:40Z")
PBS just reported that someone was shot in the Capitol. Awaiting details [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015.md?page=29) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/georgia-senate-runoff-elections-let-s-debate-and-make-predictions/925015.md?page=31)