I don;t buy the idea that things were all that rosy for Nazi Germany in mid-1943. For one thing, the Army had suffered irreplaceable lossesin Russia-almost a million men had been killed or diabled by then. And these were the best divisions…battle-hardened veterans and experienced junior officers. The german people were also beginning to suffer privation…no coffee, chocolate, plus beer was rationed.
More ominous was the fact that the Russians were putting pressure on the Germans, at every point-once Stalingrad was lost, the Germans had to conduct a fighting retreat from every position.
I also think that American and British bombing raids were having an effect-true, German war production kept increasing…but having your civilian population threatened with incendiary bombs every night could not be a morale-booster.
Was Hitler aware of this? Or was he kept away from bad news by the “yes-men” who surrounded him?
Like I said,having the Panzer armies going over to defensive rather than offensive stances must have been a very powerful signal to the german army…one that wasn’t a pleasant one.
Not necessarily. The USSR couldn’t even defeat Finland with an army of 80,000 vs their 4,000,000 USSR troops in 1939. I’m sure Hitler looked at that fiasco which occured just 2 years before the invasion of barbarossa and said 'we are better armed than Finland and have 40x more troops, we can win.
On another note consider that the Nazis overran Norway in under a month in 1940, Norway was about the same technologically & militarily (I assume) as Finland, with about the same physical land mass and roughly the same population. If Germany could destroy a country like Norway with a few thousand troops while the USSR couldn’t defeat Finland with 4 million troops that had to have some effect on Hitler’s views on how competent the Russians were to fight.
German forces invaded Denmark and Norway by sea, by land, and by aerial bombardment. Some 10,000 German soldiers hidden in vessels disguised as merchant ships occupied the coasts of Oslo, Bergen, Kristiansund, Trondheim, and Narvik. Paratroopers captured the airports of Oslo and Stavanger.
ralph, this is just totally, 100% false. Who do you think the attacker was at Kursk? Germany. That was AFTER Stalingrad, dude.
The Germans were not clearly thrown onto the defensive until after Kursk, which is more than halfway into 1943, and even at that point they’re defending ground won in the Soviet Union. There is no rational basis on which you can say they were losing the war in 1943.
Okay, so why didn’t the UK surrender in 1940? Why didn’t North Vietnam surrender in 1970? You are vastly overestimating the impact strategic bombing had on Germany in 1943; it certainly was nowhere near as bad in any particular area as it had been in London in 1940, and many parts of Germany were essentially untouched.
ralph, the question as asked has been answered, quite clearly. Nobody in 1943 would have thought the German position was hopeless, and the GERMANS would have been especially prone to thinking victory was possible, since their own intelligence estimates were far too optimistic.
Japan declared war on the United States. They planned on doing so just before the bombs started falling at Pearl Harbor but because of a delay they ended up doing so after the fact. But they did hand in a formal declaration of war. What Roosevelt called for from Congress was a resolution that a state of war existed.
Remember, too, that it’s possible that the Germans only lost Stalingrad due to neglect. According to the excellent Enemy at the Gates (book, not movie), the German army rolled into Stalingrad with good success. But Hitler turned his back, ignored his generals, and left that army there to die. Even when it was just possible to retreat and get what remained of the army out, Hitler refused. And so they were slaughtered by a brilliant Russian campaign with gutsy generals and some luck.
If Hitler had listened to his advisors, supplied the German army with the munitions and goods they needed, and paid attention, Stalingrad might have been taken. And that might make a big difference on the Russian front.
And also remember that the Soviets considered the Stalingrad campaign a failure. They weren’t trying to eliminate one German army by cutting off the city of Stalingrad; they had planned on eliminating four German army groups by cutting off the entire Caucasian peninsula.
Why should Germany surrender in 1943? Yes, things were going poorly, but Germany to that point had essentially had a peacetime economy. In '43 they converted over to a wartime economy and started ramping up production (as their opponents did 2-4 years earlier).
The Germans knew they could beat the odds because they had beat the odds previously. A voiced recognition that their opponents had not only learned how to fight but were outproducing Germany would be considered defeatist. And not until very late did the Germans realize that the production numbers their enemies (and intelligence) was reporting were not ridiculous exaggeration for propoganda purposes. Only then, in the end, did they understand the true power of the light side.
Germany sent out peace feelers to both sides during the second half of the war, and it is conceivable that had Hitler had a more realistic grasp of what the significance of the facts on the ground meant a separate peace with the Soviets might have been possible. (By this I mean that Hitler seems to have been extremely interested in how his units were equipped and what strength they were at but not terribly interested in what that meant - that they were losing). As to the prescience of the German generals, I am somewhat dubious of that. Several of them reportedly were buying up East Prussian real estate at bargain prices in '44.
A German victory in Russia was not inconceivable. The world’s number two industrial power invades the number three industrial power (after overrunning a bunch of other top tens), destroying about 90% of its armor and air force while overrunning vast chunks of territory, infrastructure, and population. In late '41 and throughout '42 a German victory has to look like the smart bet (ignoring German logistics and production). They probably could have obtained a Brest-Litovsk style peace during that time frame but had no interest.
rfgdxm The whole point of the Berlin-Tokyo axis was to give both a free hand in their own neighborhood - to keep any third country from attacking either one separately lest they have to fight both. It was aimed solely at the US, so that the US would hesitate to help the allies in Europe or oppose Japan in the east. (While it didn’t specify the US by name, the only other nation that fit the bill was the USSR, which Germany would attack regardless and Japan would not attack regardless). Once Japan had decided to attack the US on its own Germany was off the hook. The US was very interested for a variety of reasons in what Japan did in Asia and the Western Pacific, and Japan was convinced that the only reason China refused to sign an honorable peace with Japan was ongoing aid from the US and UK. Further even given a neutral US Japan could not risk building her Southeast Asian Empire . err Great East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere with a massive US bastion lying in the middle of it, give the US hostility towards Japan for the past four decades or so.
Well yes and no. You see a little thing called the Russian Revolution actually helped cease hostilities between Russia and Germany in 1917. Maybe that would make two countries that knew when to quit. (Same war too!)
It wasn’t a Military victory but a peace treaty by the new government under (the recently exiled but conviently shipped to Russia by Germany) Lenin and Germany.
Yes, Germany was doing quite well on the Eastern Front, compared to the slogging match in the Western but they were far from “beating” Russia in the Military sense they were attempting in 1941.
I wanted to insert here a quote showing that everybody knew how suicidal it would have been for the Danes in their flat little country to go to war against the Panzers.
…But now I can’t find it. I thought that in Richard Rhode’s The Making of the Atomic Bomb (excellent, BTW) there was a quote, I thought from Wolfgang Pauli, something to the effect of: “Hitler invaded Denmark? Can’t he just telephone?”. However, I can’t find it. Was it not Pauli, or not Denmark?
Help anyone?
A bit of a nitpick, but the 14 part message that was transmitted to the Japanese embassy prior to the attack but not decrypted and presented due to delays was not in fact a declaration of war, at best it was an announcement that Japan was ending diplomatic negotiations that had been ongoing to resolve the embargo. From here:
A full text of the 14 part message is here. Largely a moot point and you are entirely correct with regards to Germany not being required to go to war, as Japan had obviously attacked the United States, the Commonwealth and the Netherlands, formal declaration or not, and the Tripartite Pact reads (article3):
Japan was not obligated to go to war with the USSR after Germany and Italy attacked it, neither was Germany obligated by treaty to go to war with the US after Japan attacked.
I understand he claimed the Jews orchestrated the surrender. Maybe he believed his own propaganda and figured things would improve when he finished the final solution. To him, it made sense to divert men and equipment from the front in order to kill Jews to make Germany stronger. (barfing smily)
To some extant, this was true. Evil as it was, one of Hitler’s goals was the elimination of Jews. And the longer he kept the war going, the more time he had to accomplish this.
Hitler was a keen student of history. He fancied himself in the same mould as his hero Frederick the Great and found solace and hope in the fact that Frederick too had been on the brink of disaster when a sudden turn of events saved him.
“In the Seven Years War (1756–63), possession of Silesia was again in dispute; Maria Theresa wished to recover it, and Frederick faced a strong coalition including Austria, Russia, and France. England was his only strong ally. Victorious at Rossbach and Leuthen (1757), he was routed (1759) at Kunersdorf by the Austro-Russian forces, who in 1760 occupied Berlin. In that dark period, it is said, Frederick was on the verge of suicide. However, the accession (1762) of his admirer, Peter III of Russia, took Russia out of the war and opened Frederick’s way to victory.”
Regarding Hitler and Japan.
Hitler was not obligated to help Japan. Especially when they were the ones who instigated the war. According to some accounts, Hitler’s declaration of war on the USA was a total surprise. He had consulted no one, and made the announcement without telling anyone in advance.
It was true he thought Japan would help him attack the USSR. What Hitler didn’t know is that Japan had already scuffled with the USSR in a few battles Manchuria in the late 1939. Japan was solidly defeated in both encounters and refrained from conflict with the USSR afterwards. But nobody heard much about the battle until much later: The Japanese don’t advertise their failures and the USSR was always tight lipped.
Some have described those fights as the most important WW2 battles you never heard of.
One other possibilty/probability is that it is unlikely that the regime would have survived the war. The army was selectively loyal - perfectly happy to fuck over Weimar to preserve its own existence, but loyal to Hitler after that. If Germany was forced into a peace that could be construed as “losing” it is likely that the Nazi regime would have been the scapegoat for everything that went wrong and removed from power, even if the nominal terms of peace did not require it.
(Similar problem existed in WWI - as the war went on and casualties mounted, the minimum acceptable gains that each country needed for the war to have been worthwhile likewise increased, such that no government could sue for peace and hope to survive)
Found answer. It was George Placzek. See Rhodes, TMOTAB, p. 243.
The primary reason that Germany didn’t throw in the towel is that Hitler didn’t want them too. He had grand designs in the East, and he was intent on carrying them out. Hitler told Speer toward the close of the war, that the German people had proven to be weak, and because of that, they deserved to be destroyed by the stronger people of the East. Some believe that when Hitler declared war on the United States because he knew the war was over in 1941, and he wanted Germany destroyed for quashing his dreams of world domination.