# Germany: nuclear power trendsetter? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 30, 2011, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/germany-nuclear-power-trendsetter/583784 "2011-05-30T20:26:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2011, 3:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/germany-nuclear-power-trendsetter/583784/21 "2011-05-31T03:56:50Z")
[QUOTE=Snowboarder Bo] :rolleyes: [/QUOTE] Yes, thank you for your normal contribution. It’s your thread Snowboarder Bo…do you have anything resembling facts to base your hope on that will reduce emissions AND meet their power needs? Geothermal? Here are the Wiki figures for 2009: > [@](#): > > Electricity > > The main source of electricity still remains coal.[10] The recent plan to build 26 new coal plants [11] is controversial in light of Germany’s commitment to curbing emissions.[12] Lignite is extracted in the extreme western and eastern parts of the country, mainly in Nordrhein-Westfalen, Sachsen and Brandenburg. Considerable amounts are burned in coal plants near to the mining areas, to produce electricity. Transporting lignite over far distances is not economically feasible, therefore the plants are located practically next to the extraction sites. Bituminous coal is mined in Nordrhein-Westfalen and Saarland. Most power plants burning bituminous coal operate on imported material, therefore the plants are located not only near to the mining sites, but throughout the country.[13] Germany is the world’s largest operators of non-hydro renewables capacity in the world, including the world’s second largest operator of wind generation. Your cite says that geothermal in Germany (which, I presume you had some point in posting a drive by link with a :rolleyes: for) was: > [@](#): > > Less than 0.4 percent of Germany’s total primary energy supply came from geothermal sources in 2004. Do you have any more recent data on how that’s going for them? What do they have geothermal up to in the 7 years since? 1%? 4%? Is that what you are basing your ‘hope’ on, or was there some other point in your drive by link? [QUOTE=Simplicio] Their renewable power generation now is about equal to a third of their nuclear generation, and thats been built up in a fairly short period, so its not totally crazy that they could more or less replace nuclear with renewables over the next decade [/QUOTE] ‘Renewables’ can mean a lot of things. Do you have any details? The Wiki link I cited earlier says that hyrdo and wind account for 1.5% of their energy in 2009 (and I’d be surprised if solar is very high), and unless they have gotten Bo’s geothermal up a lot higher than I’d expect, my guess is ‘renewable’ means some sort of bio-fueled energy. -XT ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2011, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/germany-nuclear-power-trendsetter/583784/22 "2011-05-31T04:01:46Z")
They got nearly a hundred of them balloons! Can’t they use THOSE for electricity somehow? ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2011, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/germany-nuclear-power-trendsetter/583784/23 "2011-05-31T04:12:27Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Your cite says that geothermal in Germany ( **which, I presume you had some point in posting a drive by link with a :rolleyes: for** ) was: > [@xtisme](#): > > Do you have any more recent data on how that’s going for them? What do they have geothermal up to in the 7 years since? 1%? 4%? Is that what you are basing your ‘hope’ on, **or was there some other point in your drive by link**? Did you read anything in the quote box? You couldn’t have read even half of it, or you’d have noticed this: > [@](#): > > In the same year the TAB (bureau for technological impact assessment of the German Bundestag) concluded that **Germany’s geothermal resources could be used to supply the entire base load of the country**. I helpfully bolded and underlined the parts you should take particular note of. It’s funny that you thought you were being clever and mocking with your use of the trite phrase “magic pony”, but then it turns out that Germany already has one, and you didn’t even know it. ETA: Chew on this, **xtisme**. (Hint: it’s more stuff you don’t know anything about. I’m fighting your ignorance.) [ > [@](#): > > Geothermal Energy: International Market Update found that between 2005 and 2010 the United States retained its leadership in production with most MW installed, while Germany was the fastest growing geothermal power producer. ]([Factor This™ Energy Understood. All Factored In.](http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/partner/geothermal-energy-association-4102/news/article/2010/05/us-maintains-geothermal-power-lead-germany-fastest-growing-new-industry-report-concludes)) > [@](#): > > In terms of percentage increase the top five countries were: (1) Germany - 2,774%, (2) Papua-New Guinea - 833%, (3) Australia - 633%, (4) Turkey - 308%, and (5) Iceland - 184%. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2011, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/germany-nuclear-power-trendsetter/583784/24 "2011-05-31T04:21:43Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > ‘Renewables’ can mean a lot of things. Do you have any details? The Wiki link I cited earlier says that hyrdo and wind account for 1.5% of their energy in 2009 (and I’d be surprised if solar is very high), and unless they have gotten Bo’s geothermal up a lot higher than I’d expect, my guess is ‘renewable’ means some sort of bio-fueled energy. [Wind](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:RE_Germany_2009_pie_chart.svg), primarily. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2011, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/germany-nuclear-power-trendsetter/583784/25 "2011-05-31T04:28:19Z")
The point is: it can be done. It’s not a “magic pony” wishful thing that can only happen in hippie dreams, as **xtisme** and people like him try and convince the world, any more than putting a man on the moon was back in the 1960s (thanks **Adrian** ). ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2011, 5:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/germany-nuclear-power-trendsetter/583784/26 "2011-05-31T05:18:18Z")
> [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](#): > > But the question is, how what’s the price per megawatt if we use magic ponies? how well do they scale? Where does the magic hay come from? Wha about the carbon footprint? Carbon _hoofprint_, surely? I don’t think this will break Germany economically, but I do think it’ll effect their emissions profile for the worse in the short term. In the longer term, I think they’re quite capable of showing that renewables can be a viable national power source. And I say this as someone who has no problem with nuclear power. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2011, 6:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/germany-nuclear-power-trendsetter/583784/27 "2011-05-31T06:44:33Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > The point is: it can be done. It’s not a “magic pony” wishful thing that can only happen in hippie dreams, as **xtisme** and people like him try and convince the world, any more than putting a man on the moon was back in the 1960s (thanks **Adrian** ). Anything is possible if you throw enough money at it. That doesn’t make it practical. All they’re going to do is make themselves less competitive while building a 25 year land mine that blows up in the face of the next generation. All those solar cells lining the autobahn will have to be replaced and they will either have to use Chinese built units to save money or just suck it up and pay the production based on their own higher costs. ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2011, 11:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/germany-nuclear-power-trendsetter/583784/28 "2011-05-31T11:47:57Z")
I predict that Germany will wind up buying a lot of nuclear-produced electricity-from France. Solar and wind won’t do the job-wind is subject to grid-unbalancing fluctuations, and solar doesn’t work at night. The high cost of electricity will drive industry out of Germany-which is a trend happening now (the ageing German population is also driving it). ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2011, 11:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/germany-nuclear-power-trendsetter/583784/29 "2011-05-31T11:55:07Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > The high cost of electricity will drive industry out of Germany-which is a trend happening now Cite? ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2011, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/germany-nuclear-power-trendsetter/583784/30 "2011-05-31T12:55:25Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > Anything is possible if you throw enough money at it. That doesn’t make it practical. All they’re going to do is make themselves less competitive while building a 25 year land mine that blows up in the face of the next generation. All those solar cells lining the autobahn will have to be replaced and they will either have to use Chinese built units to save money or just suck it up and pay the production based on their own higher costs. You didn’t read any of my cites, did you? If you had, you’d never have tried to make the argument you just made. ---
**Author:** ![RandomLetters](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8edcca/32.png) [@RandomLetters](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RandomLetters)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2011, 1:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/germany-nuclear-power-trendsetter/583784/31 "2011-05-31T13:02:29Z")
I don’t think it will have that much impact on Germany, as the French will just build more nuclear plants, and sell the power to the Germans. As long as the Germans can produce other things that the French will want to buy, things will work out for them. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2011, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/germany-nuclear-power-trendsetter/583784/32 "2011-05-31T16:25:51Z")
> [@levdrakon](#): > > It amuses me the way people continually overestimate the contribution nuclear power makes to countries like Germany and even the US. > > Oh, oh, what about our burgeoning population and it’s incredible energy needs? What burgeoning population? What energy needs? Give me some numbers. > > If you want to talk about China and India, two countries with lots of people who don’t have electricity now and probably aren’t going to ever need a particularly large amount of energy, talk about them. > > Germany, Europe, the US - we’re already completely electrified. I don’t see any huge growth in demand; I see continual increases in efficiency and regular breakthroughs in renewable energy technologies. China and India have skyrocketing demands for electricity ([stats on China](http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-01/17/c_13693802.htm)). China is aggressively pursuing nuclear technologies. The US forecasts a need for more electric consumption in the future too. This will be especially true if we switch to electric cars (which by 2030 or so we will have to). Add all those cars to the grid and electric needs will spike dramatically. > [@](#): > > In 2007, summer demand for electricity was 783 GW and 640 GW for winter. By 2017, North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) projects summer consumption to be 925GW for summer and 756 GW for winter.[30] > > SOURCE: [Energy in the United States - Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_the_United_States#Electricity_production) If you look at the PDF they cite you see a solid upward trend line in power consumption in the US. I see no reason to suspect Germany would be much different. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2011, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/germany-nuclear-power-trendsetter/583784/33 "2011-05-31T16:38:07Z")
> [@](#): > > I helpfully bolded and underlined the parts you should take particular note of. It’s funny that you thought you were being clever and mocking with your use of the trite phrase “magic pony”, but then it turns out that Germany already has one, and you didn’t even know it. Here is the sum total from your link: > [@](#): > > Electricity from geothermal sources is expected to grow in Germany mainly because a law that benefits the production of geothermal electricity and guarantees a feed-in tariff. Less than 0.4 percent of Germany’s total primary energy supply came from geothermal sources in 2004. But after a renewable energy law that introduced a tariff scheme of EU €0.15 [US $0.23] per kilowatt-hour (kWh) for electricity produced from geothermal sources came into effect that year, a construction boom was sparked and the new power plants are now starting to come online. However the first German geothermal power plant had been built in 2003 in Neustadt-Glewe located in northern Germany. This plant was not just the first one operating with the ORC-technology Organic Rankine Cycle but also with the lowest temperature.[1] > > This first project proved that the generation of electricity from geothermal sources on low temperature levels is possible in Germany. In the same year the TAB (bureau for technological impact assessment of the German Bundestag) concluded that Germany’s geothermal resources could be used to supply the entire base load of the country. A conclusion that had been made regarding the fact that geothermal sources have to be developed sustainably because they can cool out if overused.[2] Do you have any EVIDENCE that any of this has actually HAPPENED? In 2004 they were at .4% of Germany’s total energy according to your own cite. That was 7 years ago. Where are they TODAY? And yes, I read your whole cite…it was after all only two paragraphs. I even re-read it. It still says nothing more than COULD do it. Have they? Do you have any evidence they have done so? More than a 2 paragraph quote in Wiki? > [@](#): > > ETA: Chew on this, xtisme. (Hint: it’s more stuff you don’t know anything about. I’m fighting your ignorance.) What am I supposed to chew on? Germany was the fastest growing producer of geothermal. That’s nice…what does it mean in terms of being able to use geothermal to make up for the proposed losses in nuclear? Do you have any actual numbers or hard data? According to that blurb Germany has increased geothermal by 2,774%…which, if my math isn’t failing me would put their current total geothermal at around 8%. Do you have any evidence that it’s at around 8%? That’s a rather large increase…how much more can they get out of geothermal? Do you have any projections on that? Can they get 5% more out of what they have? 10%? 50% Your OP here is very slim on actual facts, your cites are laughable, and you seem to have a serious attitude. If you want to demonstrate that Germany can get rid of their nuclear energy then demonstrate it. I’m curious as to why they are buying more power from France than they have in the past, if all this geothermal and wind are able to step up to fill nuclear powers shoes though. Any thoughts on that? -XT ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2011, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/germany-nuclear-power-trendsetter/583784/34 "2011-05-31T16:53:25Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > You didn’t read any of my cites, did you? If you had, you’d never have tried to make the argument you just made. You only posted one glurg of quotes about pie-in-the-sky future intentions and then you went on to say it “can” be done. My response was simple. Anything can be done if you throw enough money at it but that doesn’t make it practical. ---
**Author:** ![Raskolnikov](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/ac8455/32.png) [@Raskolnikov](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Raskolnikov)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2011, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/germany-nuclear-power-trendsetter/583784/35 "2011-05-31T19:02:05Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > I predict that Germany will wind up buying a lot of nuclear-produced electricity-from France. > Solar and wind won’t do the job-wind is subject to grid-unbalancing fluctuations, and solar doesn’t work at night. > The high cost of electricity will drive industry out of Germany- **which is a trend happening now** (the ageing German population is also driving it). you mean the almost landlocked country of 80million that just ended an 8 year streak as the world’s biggest exporter (of manf. goods)??? if any country can do it, it’s Germany. ---
**Author:** ![smiling\_bandit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9a140/32.png) [@smiling\_bandit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smiling_bandit)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2011, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/germany-nuclear-power-trendsetter/583784/36 "2011-06-01T02:12:25Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > You didn’t read any of my cites, did you? If you had, you’d never have tried to make the argument you just made. To be honest **Bo** , you have no idea what those cites actually said, which is jack all. We’ve been over this a hundred times. You know nothing about math, power generation technologies, or public safety. And you don’t really care to. We get it: if you wish to wallow in your ignorance, enjoy, but please don’t vomit it back up all over the public. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2011, 7:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/germany-nuclear-power-trendsetter/583784/37 "2011-06-01T07:09:52Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Here is the sum total from your link: > > Do you have any EVIDENCE that any of this has actually HAPPENED? In 2004 they were at .4% of Germany’s total energy according to your own cite. That was 7 years ago. Where are they TODAY? > > And yes, I read your whole cite…it was after all only two paragraphs. I even re-read it. It still says nothing more than COULD do it. Have they? Do you have any evidence they have done so? More than a 2 paragraph quote in Wiki? > > What am I supposed to chew on? Germany was the fastest growing producer of geothermal. That’s nice…what does it mean in terms of being able to use geothermal to make up for the proposed losses in nuclear? Do you have any actual numbers or hard data? > > According to that blurb Germany has increased geothermal by 2,774%…which, if my math isn’t failing me would put their current total geothermal at around 8%. Do you have any evidence that it’s at around 8%? That’s a rather large increase…how much more can they get out of geothermal? Do you have any projections on that? Can they get 5% more out of what they have? 10%? 50% Yes, the TBA said they could do it. You said they could not, that it was akin to using a “magic pony” method. Unless you have someplace to find facts that contradict them, I’ll take it that you were talking out of your ass and have no real idea what they can and cannot do. According to my math, that’s slightly more than 11% of their total energy consumption today. You actually quoted the hard numbers given in the cite then ask if I have any. :rolleyes: As I said, your argument amounts to “well they haven’t done it 100% yet, so it obviously can’t be done”. It’s dismissive and ignorant, and the type of attitude that would have prevented such achievements as going to the moon or developing the atomic bomb. Hell, it would have prevented developing the nuclear power plants you love so much. > [@xtisme](#): > > Your OP here is very slim on actual facts, your cites are laughable, and you seem to have a serious attitude. If you want to demonstrate that Germany can get rid of their nuclear energy then demonstrate it. I’m curious as to why they are buying more power from France than they have in the past, if all this geothermal and wind are able to step up to fill nuclear powers shoes though. Any thoughts on that? > > -XT If you just look at the news stories that pop up when you google, you’d see that Germany is currently buying power because they have decided to prioritize taking 7 nuclear plants offline immediately after the Fukushima incident rather than wait; they have decided they would rather buy power now until they have more geothermal plants online than run the risks associated with nuclear generation themselves. If you had read the article linked in the OP, you would know this: > [@](#): > > Germany, usually a net energy exporter, has at times had to import energy since March, with the seven old reactors shut and others temporarily off the grid for regular maintenance. Still, the agency overseeing its electricity grid, DENA, said Friday that the country remains self-sufficient and that its renewable energy production capacity this spring peaked at 28 gigawatts – or about the equivalent of 28 nuclear reactors. The truth is, the article in the OP has a ton of facts, which you have ignored or not read at all. You came in and simply decided to mock the topic (“magic pony” was the phrase you used and then later referenced), and your own arguments have no facts or even thought behind them except knee jerk “anything Bo says is stupid” attitude. The German government agency tasked with assessing the situation says they can supply all their energy needs with geothermal alone. I’ve cited it and quoted it twice, even once bolding AND underlining it, but you have yet to read and understand it. FFS you even quoted it once, and still ignored it while claiming I had no facts. You want to contradict what the TAB said, you dig up some facts to support your contention that they are wrong. Otherwise, AFAIK, they have a better idea of what their country and their technology can do than you do. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2011, 7:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/germany-nuclear-power-trendsetter/583784/38 "2011-06-01T07:12:14Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > You only posted one glurg of quotes about pie-in-the-sky future intentions and then you went on to say it “can” be done. > > My response was simple. Anything can be done if you throw enough money at it but that doesn’t make it practical. The German government has decided it is practical. I’ll take their decision about what is practical for them over your decision, made without any facts at all, about what is or is not practical for Germany. Unless you have some cites that can show that it won’t work or will lead to some kind of terrible economic or other disastrous situation, you have nothing but a baseless argument. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2011, 10:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/germany-nuclear-power-trendsetter/583784/39 "2011-06-01T10:34:34Z")
> [@smiling\_bandit](#): > > To be honest **Bo** , you have no idea what those cites actually said, which is jack all. > > We’ve been over this a hundred times. You know nothing about math, power generation technologies, or public safety. And you don’t really care to. We get it: if you wish to wallow in your ignorance, enjoy, but please don’t vomit it back up all over the public. Tone it down. ---
**Author:** ![Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ccd318/32.png) [@Paul\_in\_Qatar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Paul_in_Qatar)\ **Post date:** [June 1, 2011, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/germany-nuclear-power-trendsetter/583784/40 "2011-06-01T13:16:22Z")
It seems dishonest to ban nuclear and dirty coal, but to buy power made from coal and uranium elsewhere. To do that, you are simply exporting your problems to other people. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/germany-nuclear-power-trendsetter/583784.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/germany-nuclear-power-trendsetter/583784.md?page=3)