And to support this, the fastest I’ve ever seen a cage set at was about 85 MPH - slower than pretty much any major league pitcher. I am a very experienced ballplayer, and let me tell you, just hitting those pitches was HARD. If they were being thrown by a pitcher who was mixing in breaking stuff and trying to strike me out I wouldn’t have hit a damned thing.
jb_007clone, your premise is no more likely than taking a kid with a C average and turning him/her into a faculty member in the math department at the 32nd best University in the country.
You are just flat out wrong.
The other thing to consider is that hitting .160 means reaching base on 16% of ABs, not just making contact. To pick mid-range numbers, let’s say a pitcher strikes out 10 guys in a game, but the opposing batters get 10 hits as well. That means that about 70% of the time, the batter actually hit the ball, but actually reached base on about a third of those. Hitting a baseball is freaking hard, but hitting it safely is what’s really tough.
This is even far more likely. What he’s suggesting is closer to taking a 27 year old janitor some place, with no more than a high school education (if he’s lucky), and making him into that faculty member. A kid with a C average can still turn it around. An adult with no experience of any kind is another story entirely.
Not entirely. Their long-time second baseman Frank White came out of their baseball academy, but I believe he was the only one to have a career.
And I’d argue White probably would have made the majors anyway if scouts had known about him. It was likely his talents were overlooked.
Still, the original point is valid. If it were as easy as the OP insists, there would have been a lot more players coming out of the academy.
You seem to forget that the worst player on the worst team, has been practicing and playing for most of his life, and that would amount to more that 365 days @ 16 hours. What makes you think he that the average Joe after a year of practice, would be better than someone who has had 20 years of practice?
Well, you really didn’t want to hear what anybody thought.
Unless they agreed with you.
:rolleyes:
Honestly, can no one take a little sarcasm anymore? I’m sorry if I cheapened the quality of this epic argument. (Sorry, just trying to get it all out of my system. :))
I have listened to all of you and tried to reply in a rational manner. Really, seeing as no one has tried this or probably will ever try this, all it boils down to is your word versus mine.
Since all of you have suggested that it is absolutely impossible, then who knows, maybe it is? But as you guys have so wonderfully pointed out that I have not provided any concrete proof for my assumption, I must point out that you too have not done so either.
The scouting process for MLB is good, but not an infallible, talent machine. Surely you must admit that there are players who are in the league who don’t deserve to be there and vice versa? To say otherwise is kind of silly.
Once again, they only real test would be to actually grab this average joe 20 - 40 Year old, compensate him for a year off work, and try this.
Which I cannot afford to do.
I really think you guys under estimate what can be achieved in a year with hard work. I honestly believe this is possible.
My clarifications of my OP really were not desperate attempts to get someone to agree with me. I thought (and still do a little bit) that many of you do not understand what I am asking. If you do or don’t agree with me really doesn’t make a difference, I still love all of you.
In fact, this debate has made me very happy. I was unsure about the amount of responses I would get. Thanks guys.
Maybe someday I’ll win the lottery (probably have a better chance of doing that than doing this! :)) and try it out for myself!
Cheers!
There’s this little thing called ‘the burden of proof,’ and you’re the one carrying it here, not us. You don’t think you’re being obnoxious in saying “that I have not provided any concrete proof for my assumption, I must point out that you too have not done so either,” but, trust me, them’s fighting words.
If you’d search for the words “burden of proof” you’ll probably turn a few dozen relevant threads, but let me give you a simple example: if I posted that I felt strongly that you were a Martian, I would have to prove that you were, right? It wouldn’t be fair if I said that you were a Martian, and that furthermore it was up to you to prove that you weren’t.
Now, if you were nice enough to try to prove it to me anyway, submitting birth certificates and all, and testimony of those who witnessed you growing up, I could still reject it all by saying that Martians are great counterfeiters and forgers and liars, etc. and still insist that you do a better job of proving your case.
The way it really works is that the person making the claims contrary to reason (that’s you here) needs to prove his case, not the other way around.
Getting your ass kicked in a risible debate like this and claiming that what you get from the experience that it’s your word versus that of everyone else is a good way to get yourself ignored or, worse yet, a running joke.
Except that our word is backed up by logic and evidence. Yours is backed up by nothing.
Did you even read any of the posts in this thread? There are a ton of points refuting your assumption.
I agree here, at least temporarily there will be some guys in the majors who probably don’t belong and some won’t make it who probably should have. But, long term the guys who don’t belong will be weeded out and won’t last. No one is going to spend a whole season or more in the big leagues if they don’t belong.
This doesn’t have anything to do with your argument however. The handful of guys in the majors who don’t belong are still light years ahead of the average guy off the street (even with a year of practice).
I didn’t realize that you were going all the way up to 40 years old for your average guy. That makes this arguement even more ridiculous. I was assuming guys in their early 20’s and it was still impossible. Throw a 40 year old into the mix and it becomes funny.
It seems like you are totally alone in your belief.
Everyone understands what you are saying. You are saying that with a year of all out dedication and 16 hour a day practices, the average man off the street could hit as good or better than the worst hittters in the majors.
Understand what we are saying: This is nuts!
And, you have done more than just “clarify” your OP. At first you were saying the average joe could make the majors in a year, hence the title “Getting to the MLB in one year!!!” Then you decided to change it to just being able to hit as well as the worst players in the league. It doesn’t matter though because neither scenario is close to possible.
It must just be my liking of the game that keeps me coming back to this thread.
jb_007clone, we have done more than suggest that it would be impossible. We have given you about a dozen reasons this would be impossible. You have not responded to ANY of them. Not a one. You have no evidence except your clutched-to-the-breast speculation. I don’t know why I bother any more. It’s really part of my delusion that you can always convince people with reasoned argument, or at least make them acknowledge your point. This thread is another piece of evidence that I am wrong.
BTW, I used ages 20-40 just to be generous. VERY few major leaguers are still on the squad at age 40. So when you take into account that most guys aren’t practiced enough at 20, or fast enough at 40, and add that to the number of foreign players from Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Argentina, Panama, Mexico, etc, the number is decidedly less than 1 major leaguer for every 35,333 eligible players. Don’t you see the enormous divide between average and one out of, oh, 45,000?
Plus, you have neglected the enormous economic pressure to find quality players, and even more so, to become a quality player. There are thousands of the top-flight talent laboring away in the minor leagues, and most of them will never get to put on the big-league uniform.
These responses to you from everyone will stop when you admit the points in them at least somewhat.
Realizing that nothing will convince the unconvinceable, I sally forth nonetheless:
“What are the toughest tasks in sports? USA TODAY’s Sports staff took up the challenge to produce a top-10 list. We’ve looked at these sports through our own eyes, as wannabe athletes sharing our misadventures in the search for sporting stardom.”
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ten-hardest-splash.htm
Guess what they decided was the hardest?
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/2003-03-02-ten-hardest-hitting-baseball_x.htm
After reviewing the whole thread I sincerely withdraw my claim. It is impossible. I am not being sarcastic. I really do now realize that it is impossible. Thanks to everybody for all the information.
If that’sincere, then I may just fall over. Someone was convinced and admitted it?
I’m not kidding either. One of the things I value very highly is being able to admit you were wrong, even when you really don’t want to.
Good on you.
agreed.
There are people with 3000 posts and less guts
There are people with better than ten thousand and less guts.
Also makes me wonder if there is any sport where you could work your ass off for one year and be as good as the worst person in a particular (necessary) aspect of that game. Boxing, maybe? Not basketball or football … those require serious physical gifts in addition to a serious work ethic. It’d take years to develop a proper slap shot and the footwork necessary to be an offensive player, let alone a defenseman. There’s too much in tennis that requires overall proficiency to just become a 120 mph server…
I’m running out of ideas here.
Well, now that the debate is over, the OP did raise a fascinating question that I gave at least a little thought to. Field-goal kicker is the best that I have been able to come up with. I’m not sure you could take an average guy in relatively good shape and turn him into something better than the worst field-goal kicker in football, but could you turn him into something at least resembling one?
What about sports that aren’t ball sports. Could someone train for a year and become as good as the worst professional cyclist? I highly doubt it, but it seems more likely than hockey or football.
Darts
I’d say, ultimately, it would be impossible to train a random person and have him compete successfully in any sport at a pro level.
I can see something very similar in my field: writing. There are people who practice and practice and practice and practice their writing for years and years and years and never come up with anything publishable. It doesn’t happen. And writing is less dependent on physical attributes than any sport.
Of course, most people think they could have a publishable novel in them “if they get the time.” :rolleyes:
They could. It would be utter crap, along with a lot of what is published anyway:) Most average people think novel=really long book.