# Give me your probability estimates **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [September 20, 2020, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105 "2020-09-20T23:49:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2020, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105/1 "2020-09-20T23:49:10Z")
What are the chances! Who knows? This thread takes a bunch of contemporary events and asks you to guess at the chance it works out. You don’t have to justify things unless you want to. Perhaps you’ll be the next Jeanne Dixon! So, what are the chances that: 1. The phosphine from Venus is from microbes or living things and not an error or an undiscovered chemical process? 2. No new Supreme Court judge is in place by January 2021 (i.e. Trump and McConnell are unsuccessful)? 3. All COVID restrictions are lifted in the US in eight months time? 4. The Democrats win both the US House and the Senate? 5. The next successful Republican candidate has the last name Trump or Pence? 6. There will be a female or Latino President by 2030? My guesses: 1. 1% 2. 25% 3. 30% 4. 65% 5. 10% 6. 20% ---
**Author:** ![Duckster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duckster/32/1244_2.png) [@Duckster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duckster)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2020, 11:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105/2 "2020-09-20T23:55:24Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > - The phosphine from Venus is from microbes or living things and not an error or an undiscovered chemical process? > - No new Supreme Court judge is in place by January 2022 (i.e. Trump and McConnell are unsuccessful)? > - All COVID restrictions are lifted in the US in eight months time? > - The Democrats win both the US House and the Senate? > - The next successful Republican candidate has the last name Trump or Pence? > - There will be a female or Latino President by 2030? 1. 90 percent. 2. 0 percent. 3. 0 percent. 4. 45 percent. 5. 0 percent. 6. 0 percent. ---
**Author:** ![Bullitt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bullitt/32/5725_2.png) [@Bullitt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bullitt)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2020, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105/3 "2020-09-20T23:57:35Z")
Mine: 1. 40% 2. 80% 3. 95% 4. 10% 5. 0% 6. 75% And I haven’t looked at the OP’s yet. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 20, 2020, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105/4 "2020-09-20T23:59:20Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > 1. The phosphine from Venus is from microbes or living things and not an error or an undiscovered chemical process? > > 2. No new Supreme Court judge is in place by January 2022 (i.e. Trump and McConnell are unsuccessful)? > > 3. All COVID restrictions are lifted in the US in eight months time? > > 4. The Democrats win both the US House and the Senate? > > 5. The next successful Republican candidate has the last name Trump or Pence? > > 6. There will be a female or Latino President by 2030? 1. 10% 2. Assuming you mean 2021, not 2022, then 10% 3. 0.1% 4. 55% 5. Assuming the current prez doesn’t count, then 5% 6. 50% ---
**Author:** ![Bullitt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bullitt/32/5725_2.png) [@Bullitt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bullitt)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105/5 "2020-09-21T00:00:39Z")
I too read this as intended to be Jan 2021. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105/6 "2020-09-21T00:01:07Z")
1- 5% but not confirmed one way or another for decades 2- Presuming you meant 2021, 5% 3- 25% 4-85% 5- 0% 6- 30% (Harris could be a heartbeat away in 4 months) ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105/7 "2020-09-21T00:02:52Z")
The probability that in question #2 he meant “2021”- 80% ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105/8 "2020-09-21T00:05:19Z")
Probability Dr\_Paprika meant 2021: 100% Probability Dr\_Paprika’s last report card called him “a little slow”: 60% Please feel free to correct this error. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105/9 "2020-09-21T00:05:23Z")
The probability that we will know the answer to #1 within a decade: 10% I guess we’ll know 2-5 reasonably soon, and we at least have a deadline for #6. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105/10 "2020-09-21T00:08:31Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > Probability Dr\_Paprika’s last report card called him “a little slow”: 60% > > Please feel free to correct this error. Thanks Will do. Probability Dr\_Paprika’s last report card called him “a little slow”: 50% 🙃 ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105/11 "2020-09-21T01:14:38Z")
1. 0.001% I am incredulous at the numbers being given for this. It would be AMAZING if there was life on Venus. Absolutely shocking. 1. 1% A new justice will be in place before Hallowe’en and I cannot think of any reason why this wouldn’t be the case. McConnell can do it, so he will do it. 1. 40% This is hard to guess at because there are many factors; if Trump cheats his way to being President For Life, restrictions might not last that long. 1. 50% 2. 50% I mean, Donald Trump’s last name is Trump, and there’s a pretty good chance he’ll be “re-elected.” 1. 35% ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 1:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105/12 "2020-09-21T01:31:03Z")
We’re I to rewrite or edit the OP, I would change 2022 to 2021, and add “other than The Donald” since I was getting at Ivanka, Eric, etc. The Mods may change this if they want. I’ll still sleep at night if they don’t. ---
**Author:** ![Fretful\_Porpentine](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fretful_porpentine/32/2873_2.png) [@Fretful\_Porpentine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fretful_Porpentine)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105/13 "2020-09-21T01:45:24Z")
Sure, I’ll play: 1. 5% 2. 10% 3. 80% 4. 60% 5. 5% ( **ETA** : assuming the _current_ Republican president doesn’t count even if he wins a second term.) 6. 60% ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105/14 "2020-09-21T13:42:27Z")
I expected a fair bit of variation. There’s been a lot about phosphine but much less so on some of the others. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105/15 "2020-09-21T13:56:33Z")
I can edit it if you want, but there’s been so much chatter that I’d have to make it clear what you originally said, or it would be confusing. ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105/16 "2020-09-21T14:19:25Z")
Yeah, you’re right. And pretty much everyone was astute enough to get the errors anyway. ---
**Author:** ![eschrodinger](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschrodinger/32/122_2.png) [@eschrodinger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschrodinger)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105/17 "2020-09-21T15:22:11Z")
> [@Dr\_Paprika](#): > > - The phosphine from Venus is from microbes or living things and not an error or an undiscovered chemical process? > - No new Supreme Court judge is in place by January 2022 (i.e. Trump and McConnell are unsuccessful)? > - All COVID restrictions are lifted in the US in eight months time? > - The Democrats win both the US House and the Senate? > - The next successful Republican candidate has the last name Trump or Pence? > - There will be a female or Latino President by 2030? Done without looking at subsequent posts. We will have no way of knowing if anyone is right, of course. Only if they are wrong, and only if they use 0% and the event happens, or 100%, and it does not happen. 1. 10% 2. 0%, but I assume you mean 2021, in which case, 20% 3. All restrictions? 1%. Almost all? 10%. 4. 50% 5. 20% 6. 60% ---
**Author:** ![eschrodinger](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschrodinger/32/122_2.png) [@eschrodinger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschrodinger)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105/18 "2020-09-21T15:33:28Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > I am incredulous at the numbers being given for this. It would be AMAZING if there was life on Venus. Absolutely shocking. Chance if it’s life that it previously hitched a ride to Venus from Earth? 99.9% ---
**Author:** ![blue\_infinity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blue_infinity/32/2817_2.png) [@blue\_infinity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blue_infinity)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105/19 "2020-09-21T15:51:30Z")
1. 50% 2. 5% 3. 40% 4. 60% 5. 20% 6. 30% ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 21, 2020, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105/20 "2020-09-21T15:55:35Z")
> [@eschrodinger](#): > > Chance if it’s life that it previously hitched a ride to Venus from Earth? 99.9% 100% agreed. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105.md?page=2)