# Give me your probability estimates

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105>\
**Category:** In My Humble Opinion\
**Created:** [September 20, 2020, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105 "2020-09-20T23:49:10Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 3\
**Page:** 3

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**Author:** ![ThisIsTheEnd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thisistheend/32/4713_2.png) [@ThisIsTheEnd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisIsTheEnd)\
**Post date:** [September 22, 2020, 7:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105/41 "2020-09-22T19:44:45Z")

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1. 0%
2. 0%
3. 0% that all restrictions will be lifted in all states
4. 49%
5. 0% if you are talking about 2024
6. 50%

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**Author:** ![CookingWithGas](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cookingwithgas/32/485_2.png) [@CookingWithGas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CookingWithGas)\
**Post date:** [September 22, 2020, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105/42 "2020-09-22T19:53:30Z")

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- The phosphine from Venus is from microbes or living things and not an error or an undiscovered chemical process? 20%
- No new Supreme Court judge is in place by January 2021 (i.e. Trump and McConnell are unsuccessful)? 7.5%
- All COVID restrictions are lifted in the US in eight months time? 0% (not **all** everywhere in the U.S. but most)
- The Democrats win both the US House and the Senate? 70%
- The next successful Republican candidate has the last name Trump or Pence? You mean in 2024? 5%
- There will be a female or Latino President by 2030? 40%

I have no figures to back any of this up.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Oredigger77](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oredigger77/32/3181_2.png) [@Oredigger77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oredigger77)\
**Post date:** [September 22, 2020, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/give-me-your-probability-estimates/921105/43 "2020-09-22T20:40:49Z")

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> [@Dr\_Paprika](#):
>
> So, what are the chances that:

1. The phosphine from Venus is from microbes or living things and not an error or an undiscovered chemical process?  
40%

2. No new Supreme Court judge is in place by January 2021 (i.e. Trump and McConnell are unsuccessful)?

20%

1. All COVID restrictions are lifted in the US in eight months time?

75%

1. The Democrats win both the US House and the Senate?

60%

1. The next successful Republican candidate has the last name Trump or Pence?

22%

1. There will be a female or Latino President by 2030?

39%

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