# Glasnost Mafia **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [February 17, 2011, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757 "2011-02-17T23:58:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 24
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2011, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/461 "2011-02-25T21:05:47Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > So, **Pleonast** , \*do \*you have any thoughts on **MentalGuy**? > > Do you think he’s Town? Scum? 3rd Party? Too close to tell? As I mentioned earlier (I can’t blame you for missing it in our cross-postings), **MentalGuy** ’s vote is anti-town. Heck, I voted for them back in Post 240 for almost the same thing. If we had multiple votes, it’d still be there. And I shouldn’t have to explain, but I will: I believe scum are more likely to engage in anti-town actions that town, so yes I think **MentalGuy** is more likely scum than not. Okay, I’ve talked myself into **vote MentalGuy** for voting for me (187) for stating a policy they believe is a null tell. If players want to jump on me for that, they’ll get to answer for it ToMorrow. > [@Gadarene](#): > > Wow, I just full-on disagree with you, **Pleo**. If it wasn’t already obvious enough, we just have very different ways of thinking about this game. That’s a good thing. It makes it harder for scum to manipulate both of us at the same time. Just don’t conflate differences in approach with differences in alignment. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2011, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/462 "2011-02-25T21:08:12Z")
> [@Gadarene](#): > > Not only that, he then expressly stated that “Pleo is a bit more likely to be town with his claim than scum.” And yet he votes for **Pleo**. > > You don’t see what’s suspicious about this? His almost resembles the sort of confusing statement I might make as Town, that others’ find scummy. I would guess that a scummy player would make a “slicker” statement, avoiding ambivalence and confusion. Whether his reasoning is reasonable or not, the ambivalent confusing nature of his post leads me to suspect sincerity ! ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2011, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/463 "2011-02-25T21:12:19Z")
Unofficial vote count: 6 Pleo 6 Mental Guy 4 Astral 3 Mahaloth 1 Idle (by Maha) 1 Guiri (by story) ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2011, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/464 "2011-02-25T21:14:10Z")
Must be nice to be scum: If you’re slick, nobody suspects you, and if you’re self-contradictory and seemingly anti-town, you’re just being a sincere townie! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2011, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/465 "2011-02-25T21:15:48Z")
Okay, someone NEEDS to switch off MentalGuy. \*\*Pleonast \*\*and \*\*Astral \*\*are now the two most suspicious people in the game–here’s why. With a tie, we have a 6.25% chance of “lynch all”, and a 93.75% chance of “no lynch”. It is almost NEVER in town’s best interest to have a “no lynch”, because it denies us information. Both players I’ve bolded have moved their vote to force a tie, without any acknowledgement that they have done so, despite SEVERAL unofficial vote counts. As I am voting for Pleo already, I cannot break the tie in favor of someone I find more scummy. I will, if necessary, switch to MentalGuy solely to break the tie and get some information out of the end-of-day vote patterns/switches. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2011, 9:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/466 "2011-02-25T21:16:49Z")
Let me be clear: I find forcing a tie in the closing hours of the Day the SINGLE most scummy game-mechanic-related action you can take in this setup, short of openly declaring yourself scum. ---
**Author:** ![MentalGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/439d5e/32.png) [@MentalGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MentalGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2011, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/467 "2011-02-25T21:18:05Z")
Oh, crap. I should have known better than to try and get a hurried post in before the end of the Day. Of the players that I think might be scum, Astral is highest on that list. But I am no where close to sure. Do I think Pleo might be scum? Definitely. I am operating under the assumption that Pleo is either lying scum or truth-telling town. With that assumption, I feel that a lynch of Pleo has at least as good a chance of being a good lynch as Astral. Along with that, I feel that there is a lower chance of a really bad lynch, since I don’t think there is any chance that Pleo is a power role. So, while I may not be voting for the player I think is most likely to be scum, I am voting in the way that I think would be most likely to benefit town. Since I do believe in self-preservation votes, I am obviously not going to change my vote right now. I will say that I thought I was voting in the best interests of town, but obviously I was mistaken since I inadvertantly started a wave against me. I am sorry for my poor play and hopefully I will be on one more time before Day is over. ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2011, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/468 "2011-02-25T21:20:55Z")
**Zeriel:** Wow, hadn’t realized that ties carried with them the possibility of no lynch. Yeah, we really need to avoid that. (That having been said, I think **MentalGuy** is much more suspicious than **Pleo** for the reasons I’ve outlined. **Astral** might be suspicious too – good catch that he forced a tie without much comment – but switching to him would only get **Pleo** lynched, so I’d prefer to stay with **MentalGuy** and hope someone else switches their vote.) ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2011, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/469 "2011-02-25T21:20:58Z")
my head hurts now… ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2011, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/470 "2011-02-25T21:24:33Z")
> [@MentalGuy](#): > > Since I do believe in self-preservation votes, I am obviously not going to change my vote right now. Does this sentence make sense to anyone else? ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2011, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/471 "2011-02-25T21:25:01Z")
A tie has a 2 in 16 chance of resulting in an all-lynch. That’s 12.5%. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2011, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/472 "2011-02-25T21:26:12Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > A tie has a 2 in 16 chance of resulting in an all-lynch. That’s 12.5%. Correct, but still ‘bad’. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2011, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/473 "2011-02-25T21:27:21Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > > [@MentalGuy](#): > > > > Since I do believe in self-preservation votes, I am obviously not going to change my vote right now. > > Does this sentence make sense to anyone else? They’re saying they’d be voting for me no matter what at this point, since I’m the other likely lynch candidate. But since they’re vote is already on me, there’s nothing more for them to do. ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2011, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/474 "2011-02-25T21:27:53Z")
> [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > Does this sentence make sense to anyone else? Yeah – he’s saying that even though he finds people other than **Pleo** scummier than **Pleo** , he’s not going to switch his vote to one of those other people, because he’s currently tied with **Pleo** and switching his vote would mean voluntarily putting himself in the lead to be lynched. ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2011, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/475 "2011-02-25T21:29:45Z")
> [@Pleonast](#): > > They’re saying they’d be voting for me no matter what at this point, since I’m the other likely lynch candidate. But since they’re vote is already on me, there’s nothing more for them to do. :smack: Yes, of course…for some reason I had it in my head at that point that \*\*MentalGuy \*\*was voting for **Astral** , so I was thinking it made no sense at all. ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2011, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/476 "2011-02-25T21:30:02Z")
Just so everyone can see the relevant rule without switching back to page one: **Red Skeezix:** > [@](#): > > Ties will produce either all tied players being lynched OR no lynch, decided by the following rule: A coin will be flipped 4 times, if comes up all heads or all tails then tied players will all be lynched. **This means that a tie will result in no player being lynched 87.5% of the time.** **Zeriel** is right that this would be a terrible result for Town. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2011, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/477 "2011-02-25T21:32:52Z")
> [@Gadarene](#): > > Just so everyone can see the relevant rule without switching back to page one: > > **Red Skeezix:** > **This means that a tie will result in no player being lynched 87.5% of the time.** > > **Zeriel** is right that this would be a terrible result for Town. There’s my math error, I thought it was all heads when I looked back at it. Regardless. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Skeezix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/aca169/32.png) [@Red\_Skeezix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Skeezix)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2011, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/478 "2011-02-25T21:38:22Z")
Day 1 Vote Tally Pleonast(6) :Zeriel[162], Mental Guy[187-255][392], [del]Drain Bead[202-395][/del], [del]Gadarene[208-384][/del], [del]septimus[212-269][/del], pedescribe[216], [del]peekercpa[230-399][/del], ComeToTheDarksideWeHaveCookies[236], One and Only Wanderers[288], [del]Tom Scud[327-398][/del], Suburban Plankton[444] Mental Guy(6) :Pleonast[240-240][461], Gadarene[394], Drain Bead[395], Tom Scud[398], peekercpa[399], Astral Rejection[420] Astral Rejection(4) :guiri[269], special ed[273], sachertorte[317], septimus[409] Mahaloth(3) :Idle Thoughts[159], [del]Suburban Plankton[217-444][/del], Wolverine[241], Manwich[265], [del]septimus[284-409][/del] Idle Thoughts(1) :Mahaloth[291] guiri(1) :storyteller0910[306] Wolverine(0) :[del]Zeriel[137-162][/del], [del]Mahaloth[147-291][/del] One and Only Wanderers(0) :[del]pedescribe[138-216][/del] septimus(0) :[del]Tom Scud[238-285][/del], [del]Mental Guy[255-392][/del] Zeriel(0) :[del]Pleonast[240-240][/del] Drain Bead(0) :[del]Pleonast[240-240][/del] Gadarene(0) :[del]Pleonast[240-240][/del] pedescribe(0) :[del]Pleonast[240-461][/del] Tom Scud(0) :[del]Astral Rejection[266-420][/del] Did Not Vote: There is a 2 way tie between the following players: Pleonast, Mental Guy. ---
**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2011, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/479 "2011-02-25T21:39:39Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > The case made against **Astral Rejection** seems strong. I am relying in large measure on my assessment of the experience and skill of those voting against **Astral** , but I think that’s a reasonable basis for my play. Bad idea for a host of reasons: (1) If you are Town, then you should have no idea whether or not these “experienced” players are Scum or not. Following blindly would be foolish. (2) Following another is a way of ducking responsibility for your vote. Your vote is _your_ vote. It should reflect your opinion, not the opinion of someone else. To do otherwise is hiding and objectively scummy. (3) There are many aspects of the game that I feel I do well in. Finding scum is NOT one of them. > [@Gadarene](#): > > So, **ed** , you agree with **Drain** that **MentalGuy’s** post was “bar none the scummiest thing that has happened so far in this thread,” but you’re not switching your vote? > > Not that you have to, obviously; it just seemed odd. Gadarene is on my radar now. I find this particular post a bit too concerned about possible backlash. In other words, Gadarene is careful to be delicate regarding Ed. I feel that Scum tend to be more concerned about how they are perceived than Town. > [@Gadarene](#): > > If **MentalGuy** ultimately flips scum and **Pleo** doesn’t, that vote might not look super-great for you, **Suburban**. 🙂 Another Gadarene post that makes me scratch my head. This one is a bit too blatant for me to accept as scummy, but it certainly isn’t screaming “Town” to me. > [@Suburban\_Plankton](#): > > Yes, you got me. I’m claiming Sleeper. > And I’m just having too much fun right at the moment. I think I may have had a couple too many cups of coffee today… On this point, I agree with Pleonast. Even as a “joke” SP’s post is a Vanilla Claim. There is no other way to parse it. The ONLY players who can possibly be the Sleeper ‘think’ they are Vanilla Town at this moment. Everyone else cannot be the sleeper by definition. :mad: ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2011, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/480 "2011-02-25T21:41:57Z")
Gah. I wake up to another explosion of who knows what. I agree that Astral’s tie-maker is really damn scary, but the full implications of it didn’t really gel for me until forced to confront it head on, so I’m inclined to read it as a null tell at this point because I very well could have ended up inadvertently doing the same thing if I had been in his position. MentalGuy’s posts do make his reasoning rather muddy to follow, what with the piling up information leading him to conclusion X and then voting per conclusion Y. As for the statement Suburban quotes above, I _think_ he means that he agrees with Pleo’s belief that self-preservation votes are bad. In spite of the recent flurry of activity, I’m inclined to keep my vote on Pleo and to keep watching any and all votes/moves/changes this late and at such a volatile time very closely. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757.md?page=23) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757.md?page=25)