# Glasnost Mafia **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [February 17, 2011, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757 "2011-02-17T23:58:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 57
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2011, 9:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1121 "2011-03-11T21:44:58Z")
> [@sachertorte](#): > > Oh I see why your numbers don’t match mine. You are only concerned with the Doc. You aren’t counting the chance that the Vig gets killed. I’d argue that the Vig is just as, if not more, important as the Doc. _nods_ I can run those numbers, too. So we have 3 unclaimed vanilla, 1 vig, 1 doc, 2 masons, and 4 scum in the pool of unclaimed people. Plan A) is when people claim vanilla (and the vig) or non-. Plan B) is when the Masons only claim. Today, in plan A), scum sees the vanilla pool as 3 vanilla and the vig. In plan B), scum sees the unclaimed pool as 3 vanilla, 1 vig, and one doc. If we lynch an unclaimed Town today (leaving 2 unclaimed vanilla and the vig and the doc): Plan A) scum odds of hitting vig Tonight = 33% Plan B) scum odds of hitting vig Tonight = 25%, overall odds a power role will die 47.9% (doc death chance 22.9%) If we lynch claimed vanilla today (leaving 3 unclaimed vanilla and the vig and the doc): Plan A) scum odds of hitting vig Tonight = 25% Plan B) scum odds of hitting vig Tonight = 20%, overall odds a power role will die 42.9% (doc death chance 22.9%) If we lynch Scum today (leaving 3 unclaimed vanilla and the vig and the doc): Plan A) scum odds of hitting vig Tonight = 25% Plan B) scum odds of hitting vig Tonight = 20%, overall odds a power role will die 41.5% (doc death chance 21.5%) Meaning that Plan B increases the odds that ONE power will be killed, but makes the doctor significantly safer because the doctor can be hiding in the claimed vanilla pool just as easily as the unclaimed pool (by my reckoning, anyway, since we don’t have conclusive evidence as to when the sleeper may have been awakened.) The wonderful world of statistics. This is also all assuming that scum will shot in the vanilla pool for the doc rather than taking safe shots at the masons to reduce the confirmed pool. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2011, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1122 "2011-03-11T21:46:13Z")
NETA: to clarify, in plan A the doc and vig are in different pools, so the scum have to select which pool to gamble in. In plan B they’re in the same pool, mostly, so the combined percentage is appropriate. ---
**Author:** ![Gadarene](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Gadarene](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gadarene)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2011, 10:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1123 "2011-03-11T22:08:59Z")
I’m sort of confused at this point. ---
**Author:** ![GuiriEnEspana](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bc79bd/32.png) [@GuiriEnEspana](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GuiriEnEspana)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2011, 10:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1124 "2011-03-11T22:11:00Z")
I’m having a hard time getting my head around these numbers and scenarios. I think we’ve a good chance of lynching scum toDay. **Vote Astral** For the reasons given Days 1 and 3. ---
**Author:** ![special\_ed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@special\_ed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/special_ed)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2011, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1125 "2011-03-11T22:29:48Z")
> [@Zeriel](#): > > NETA: to clarify, in plan A the doc and vig are in different pools, so the scum have to select which pool to gamble in. In plan B they’re in the same pool, mostly, so the combined percentage is appropriate. are you assuming the Vig will shoot blindly and won’t go after a claimed Vanilla? ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2011, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1126 "2011-03-11T22:40:24Z")
I don’t really play this game with math, but I promise to read and at least try to comprehend all math-based proposals once they are settled into actual proposals. ---
**Author:** ![sachertorte](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sachertorte/32/3727_2.png) [@sachertorte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sachertorte)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2011, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1127 "2011-03-11T22:45:50Z")
**vote pedescribe** For purely mechanical reasons and in hope that we hammer the Day early so that the next Day can be more productive. I have a busy weekend scheduled and I have a deadline on Monday so I won’t be able to participate as much as I would like. If people dislike what I’m doing they can vote for me, which ironically will achieve what I’m setting out to do 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2011, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1128 "2011-03-11T23:37:11Z")
> [@special\_ed](#): > > are you assuming the Vig will shoot blindly and won’t go after a claimed Vanilla? If you read the earlier post, I’m assuming the vig will shoot in the “vanilla” pool in scenario A and the “not mason” pool in scenario B. In either scenario we’ve made some effort at a mass claim, so the present claim status is relatively useless. ---
**Author:** ![special\_ed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@special\_ed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/special_ed)\ **Post date:** [March 11, 2011, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1129 "2011-03-11T23:41:40Z")
> [@Zeriel](#): > > If you read the earlier post, I’m assuming the vig will shoot in the “vanilla” pool in scenario A and the “not mason” pool in scenario B. In either scenario we’ve made some effort at a mass claim, so the present claim status is relatively useless. okie dokie ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2011, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1130 "2011-03-12T03:09:17Z")
Just in case things keep getting hairy with work, I’m putting a vote and some thoughts down early. **Vote Suburban** a) with his apparent slip about the irony if he were to end up as Sleeper, if it was a legitimate slip by a Vanilla townie, it hung a big ‘try to awaken me’ sign on his nose. On the other hand it could have been a scummy misdirection trying to look like he was a slipping Vanilla townie. b) He did vote to lynch scummy Pleo, but was the last to grab his torch and pitchfork. c) with no one coming forward about receiving the chicken message on Day 3, Night 2 is looking like a probable recruitment event. d) his first [Day 3 post](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=13536828&postcount=843) starts with one of those statements that arguably betrays the scum dilemma. I’ve seen townies utter ‘gosh, I don’t know who to suspect’ stuff too, but consider it a data point that potentially dovetails with his being an obvious choice for waking up the morning of Day 3 suddenly scum, if he wasn’t scum already. He also lays out the early case against Townie septimus in the same post, which I later purchased a share in, unfortunately. He also ended up voting for septimus. e) Also on Day 3, he had [this](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=13542923&postcount=924) little pot/kettle/black exchange with sachertorte over unprompted Vanilla claims. f) He was not in favor of a mass claim (though I happen to agree with his observation about a mass claim with this open set up making the game somewhat less fun, see sachertorte’s vote on pedescribe) g) He was not in favor of The Plan ---
**Author:** ![MentalGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/439d5e/32.png) [@MentalGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MentalGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2011, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1131 "2011-03-12T05:09:12Z")
I agree with Cookies. On Night 2 the scum apparently targeted me to be killed. With Suburban’s slip, they would likely target him for awakening. That way, no matter which of us the jailer chose, they would either get rid of the cop or gain a teammate. **Vote Suburban Plankton** Of the claim plans, I think I favor the Mason claim since it should keep the power roles hidden a bit better. I will admit I haven’t really studied the numbers yet, but I think either plan is preferable to doing nothing. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2011, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1132 "2011-03-12T05:27:36Z")
> [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](#): > > b) He did vote to lynch scummy Pleo, but was the last to grab his torch and pitchfork. Really, Cookies? I have my voting list right here. Few fun facts about Day 1’s voting. 1. there were several waves of voting for Pleo. The person who was last in the FIRST wave, placing vote EIGHT when no one else had more than two on them, was a certain Ms. Cookies. 2. Plankton was third from last. Tom Scud and Peeker voted after him. 3. Plankton’s vote pushed Pleo over the top from being tied with MentalGuy. It was, at the time, a very decisive vote. I’m not saying that he wasn’t recruited, but honestly, he was a goddamn hero of voting on Day One compared to you–and throwing that little turd of suspicion out on him tells me you’re trying to make a case you think no one will check on. **vote ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies** ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2011, 5:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1133 "2011-03-12T05:28:44Z")
PS anyone who didn’t read his “sleeper” statement as a joke is pinging me. It so obviously wasn’t a claim of anything that I’m skeptical anyone’s trying to hang it on him. ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2011, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1134 "2011-03-12T05:33:11Z")
I thought the vote order/moves were explicitly stated in the Day-ending vote summaries. I was interpreting them as such. ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2011, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1135 "2011-03-12T05:37:22Z")
This one > [@Red\_Skeezix](#): > > Day 1 Final Vote Tally > Pleonast(8) :Zeriel[162], Mental Guy[187-255][392], [del]Drain Bead[202-395][/del], [del]Gadarene[208-384][/del], [del]septimus[212-269][/del], pedescribe[216], peekercpa[230-399][537], ComeToTheDarksideWeHaveCookies[236], One and Only Wanderers[288], Tom Scud[327-398][514], Suburban Plankton[444] > Astral Rejection(4) :guiri[269], special ed[273-509][545], sachertorte[317], septimus[409] > Mahaloth(3) :Idle Thoughts[159], [del]Suburban Plankton[217-444][/del], Wolverine[241], Manwich[265], [del]septimus[284-409][/del] > Mental Guy(1) :[del]Pleonast[240-240][461-529][/del], [del]Gadarene[394-516][/del], Drain Bead[395], [del]Tom Scud[398-514][/del], [del]peekercpa[399-537][/del], [del]Astral Rejection[420-541][/del], [del]special ed[509-515][/del] > pedescribe(1) :Pleonast[240-461][529] > Idle Thoughts(1) :Mahaloth[291] > guiri(1) :storyteller0910[306] > Wolverine(0) :[del]Zeriel[137-162][/del], [del]Mahaloth[147-291][/del] > One and Only Wanderers(0) :[del]pedescribe[138-216][/del] > septimus(0) :[del]Tom Scud[238-285][/del], [del]Mental Guy[255-392][/del] > Zeriel(0) :[del]Pleonast[240-240][/del] > Drain Bead(0) :[del]Pleonast[240-240][/del] > Gadarene(0) :[del]Pleonast[240-240][/del] > Tom Scud(0) :[del]Astral Rejection[266-420][/del] > Did Not Vote:Gadarene,Astral Rejection > > Pleonast Has Been lynched. > > As it turns out **Pleonast** was the **Scum Roleblocker**. > > Night 1 begins **now** , and ends in **48** hours. ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2011, 5:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1136 "2011-03-12T05:46:29Z")
Nevermind, I see my mistake. That doesn’t incline me to unvote him though. He could have been as Townie as the day was long when he voted Pleo and still have been recruited on Night 2. ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2011, 5:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1137 "2011-03-12T05:49:28Z")
And what exactly are you trying to accuse me of with my Day 1 vote? ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2011, 6:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1138 "2011-03-12T06:14:05Z")
Playing safe to get scum credit when it looked like an inescapable bandwagon. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2011, 6:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1139 "2011-03-12T06:16:15Z")
er, town credit for nailing scum, bussing, however you wanna say it. It’s late and I’m tired. ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2011, 6:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1140 "2011-03-12T06:24:55Z")
Well, my counter is that I thought Pleo was scum and voted accordingly. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757.md?page=56) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757.md?page=58)