# Glasnost Mafia **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [February 17, 2011, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757 "2011-02-17T23:58:11Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 61
**Author:** ![special\_ed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@special\_ed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/special_ed)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2011, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1201 "2011-03-14T22:21:45Z")
> [@MentalGuy](#): > > While I do think a mass claim of some sort will be beneficial, I don’t really like the idea of throwing down an edict. You and Mahaloth are in the position of being trusted as Town. Therefore your opinion in the matter carries more weight. And someone has to make a decision. I’d rather it be a Town player or 2. ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2011, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1202 "2011-03-14T22:27:42Z")
> [@GuiriEnEspana](#): > > I’m intrigued. There are a number of inaccuracies in your WoW but I do not know if these are in any way relevant to your promised analysis. :rolleyes: I found some stuff that made me lean town on you, and plenty of stuff that made me lean scummy. The whole tone of this post makes me believe you aren’t honestly interested in fixing any of my inaccuracies. Anyway, on to the analysis. I’m going to mostly skip over my initial discussion of you, which can be found in the following links. [My first post about Guiri.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=13500623&postcount=266) [Guiri’s response.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=13500788&postcount=269) [My response to Guiri.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=13501916&postcount=296) The main point of this is that I started with a two-sentence Day 1 interpretation of Guiri’s posts so far. I was looking at the lurkers and considering each in turn. Guiri believed I was misrepresenting his posts, and considering him unfairly compared to how I considered everyone else. I don’t believe I misrepresented his posts. Others didn’t either… Guiri had to defend this part of his rebuttal against at least one other player. Another key point to remember is that, despite what Guiri says, Guiri defended Pleo repeatedly, even in a post that was focused elsewhere. After Guiri’s OMGUS vote for me, he has a mere two more posts, both defending himself (against me first, then Storyteller). More than 200 posts will pass between his last defense of himself and his “yay!” after Pleo’s flip. 300 posts have passed since his vote for me. Yet he’s made no effort whatsoever to find other scum, or comment on other events. On Day 2, he agrees with the Drain lynch and says that he’ll focus his efforts into finding other scum. His first post of the day has this oddity: > [@GuiriEnEspana](#): > > I believe that anti-town opinions are not strong indicators of a player’s scumminess. I vote for players I believe likely to be scum or, on occasions like toDay, 3rd party threats to Town. I agree on the surface, anti-town doesn’t always mean scum. But Guiri suggests he’d ignore anti-town behavior almost completely, because it’s not a strong indicator of a player’s scumminess. Others have questioned this, so I’ll only dwell here briefly, but why ignore an entire category of evidence? It sounds to me like a repetition of his defense of Pleo, to defend against anybody later bringing up the Pleo thing. His next few votes again are defenses of his own behavior. He says this: > [@GuiriEnEspana](#): > > I agree that an anti-town opinion can be a data point in a case against another player but I don’t think I’d have much luck finding scum based on an opinion alone - scum don’t have the monopoly on anti-towniness. When making a case I look at a player’s actions and votes: the timing, reasoning, context, previous stances, interactions with other players, and look for the scum motivation, contradictions, misrepresentations, backtracks, flawed reasoning, etc., and then use my personal judgement to decide whether the player has a greater likelihood of being scum and make a case or vote accordingly. This sounds reasonable enough, but it doesn’t explain why he was so interested in defending Pleo, especially given that it’s a Day 1 vote and people can’t use most of his criteria to identify scum. Day 1 is all about making the best of a bad situation, and today we lucked out. He follows this post up with more mechanics talk, and again puts no effort into finding scum. Finally, he posts a [WoW of Gadarene](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=13521951&postcount=762). Finds some scummy behavior, but doesn’t vote. That’s fine, he wants to consider Mahaloth next. No scum tell here. But then the day ends. No WoW of Mahaloth. Again, that’s fine, we hammered the day 4 hours later and perhaps he didn’t have time. I’d assume he was gonna vote for Drain, so it’s not an issue that he didn’t vote, either. No scum tell here either. The next day, his first post congratulates the jailor and then wastes no time in urging those who would vote for Gadarene to **not vote for Gadarene.** Interestingly, this is the only substantial case Guiri has built all game. Guiri reminds us that while there’s “a fair amount of meat” to his case, he can’t see a scummy Gadarene making the comments he made in post 445 and 511. You know, the posts Guiri already covered in his WoW. The posts we already knew everything about, because Pleo had already flipped. And Mental had already claimed. Everything necessary for a full discussion of those two posts had already happened, but Guiri suddenly does a 180 and backs away from the case. I’m torn on how to analyze this. It comes out of nowhere, and Gadarene isn’t in too much trouble at the time. In fact, there are only two voters voting for Gadarene at the time… Septimus and me. Septimus builds his own case, and I tacked my vote onto that. Neither of us reference Guiri’s previous case. Why is he so interested in distancing himself from his own case? 1. Guiri is scum, and Gadarene is town. Guiri sees a move towards voting Gadarene and wants town credit for backing off. Somewhat unlikely at this point. 2. Guiri is scum and Gadarene is scum. Guiri did a WoW to get town credit in case Gadarene eventually bites it. At the same time, Guiri wouldn’t actually want Gadarene dead until it’s time to throw a teammate under the bus. Kinda likely, maybe? Seems early in the game for this. 3. Guiri is town, and Gadarene is unknown to Guiri. Unlikely. Guiri had all the information when he made his WoW, so why would a townie Guiri back off so suddenly? If he had a change of heart, maybe, but I’d expect him to post something indicating that was what happened. So, I’m not sure right now. I think choice 2 is most likely, followed by 1, and then 3. But this is the weakest part of my argument, because I truly don’t know which I believe most. Guiri, who has previously indicated suspicion of Mahaloth, then defends him against his voters. Guiri lists a rather hefty amount of behavior from Mahaloth that Guiri would consider suspicious, and notes that none of his voters are using those reasons. Guiri then does a WoW of Mahaloth and fully codifies everything Guiri found suspicious about him. Then the WoW of me. Since it involves me, you guys are probably [better off reading it for yourselves](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=13537429&postcount=855) than trusting me about what it says. Guiri concludes by voting for me. I correct Guiri, and [we have a gentleman’s debate](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=13539868&postcount=885). Again, read for yourselves. Guiri then votes for me again, for the same reasons from Day 1 and 3. Finally, Guiri jumps aboard the Suburban Express, offering a reasonable enough reason. I can’t see an issue here. So, pattern of behavior - Guiri has been focused on me. Guiri only builds two other substantial cases - one on Gadarene, that he immediately abandoned, and one on Mahaloth. He makes very little in way of actual contribution to the game, in my opinion, with 33 posts to his name. He defended Pleo when Pleo needed defending. And finally, there’s the bizarre bit involving his 180 on Gadarene that I’m not 100% sure how to analyze. Overall, I think Guiri is a strong candidate for lynching. **Vote Guiri.** I don’t have time for another investigation of a player, but Ed would be it. I’ve been getting tons of pings from him, and I’d like to investigate him further. Lastly, Suburban is our leading lynch candidate. I don’t have a serious read on him, but I’ve been leaning town throughout the game. I currently believe Guiri is our scummiest target, followed by Ed. ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2011, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1203 "2011-03-14T22:32:34Z")
> [@sachertorte](#): > > **We need to choose a claim and execute it ASAP**! Then we can move onto more important business. To this end, I feel that we should NOT try to build consensus. **Mahaloth** and **Mental Guy** are likely to be alive in the morning, so the two of them should talk it out and quickly throw down an EDICT. > I will abide by this edict without question. (maybe a little grumbling) But we need the claim decision to be made QUICKLY and executed QUICKLY. Boom done! Sometimes we need a dictatorship. I think this is one of those times. I don’t agree with your urgency. At some point, we have to pick between the two plans, but we don’t currently have to. We can have the vig pick one of our claimed vanillas, lynch who the town decides to lynch, and revisit the topic toMorrow. What exactly do we lose if we don’t pick RIGHT THIS SECOND? > [@](#): > > I think killing from the {Suburban Plankton, pedescribe, sachertorte} set is fine. I would have preferred to enact the Vanilla claim so that the Vig had a better shot at hitting scum, but given the messed up day, I’ll take reduction of the unknown pool instead. Agreed. Reducing the unknowns will just about always help the town. ---
**Author:** ![special\_ed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@special\_ed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/special_ed)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2011, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1204 "2011-03-14T22:34:54Z")
> [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > I don’t agree with your urgency. At some point, we have to pick between the two plans, but we don’t currently have to. We can have the vig pick one of our claimed vanillas, lynch who the town decides to lynch, and revisit the topic toMorrow. What exactly do we lose if we don’t pick RIGHT THIS SECOND? We’ve spent all of toDay and half of YesterDay discussing this and \*\*not \*\*deciding. we don’t need to decide right this second, but, like sachertorte says, we need to decide early toMorrow, so that we can enact the plan. ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2011, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1205 "2011-03-14T22:46:02Z")
That’s exactly why I’m saying we can wait. We didn’t come to a clear conclusion, so we’ll just decide tomorrow. For all we know, the scum could hit something vital to one of the plans tonight, and tomorrow we can roll with that better. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2011, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1206 "2011-03-14T22:49:36Z")
> [@special\_ed](#): > > You keep coming back to this. I’m not sure why you vote me over sachertorte though. We both had the same stance. Partly because **sach** has done several things that have caused me to lean Town on him. It’s really that simple. Please understand; I acknowledge everything that you say in your defense as plausible. You _did_ make cases on the players for whom you voted, and your stance on **Pleonast** was entirely defensible and reasonable. But defensible and reasonable don’t mean much, either way, in this case. I can comfortably imagine a pro-Town mindset underlying your actions, and can comfortably imagine a pro-Scum mindset. So at some point, the actual actions have to count. \*In fact, your action was to work against a Pleonast lynch while stating support for it. This is exactly what Scum looking to protect a role-blocker would have done. If we do not hold you accountable for this, then how do we play at all? We open the door for the Scum to blatantly work together, if we allow actions like yours without consequence. Put a different way: hypothesizing that you _were_ Scum on Day One; how would your actions have looked any different? ---
**Author:** ![special\_ed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5ac83/32.png) [@special\_ed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/special_ed)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2011, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1207 "2011-03-14T22:49:37Z")
> [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > That’s exactly why I’m saying we can wait. We didn’t come to a clear conclusion, so we’ll just decide tomorrow. For all we know, the scum could hit something vital to one of the plans tonight, and tomorrow we can roll with that better. And, if you read the entire paragraph that sachertorte wrote, that’s exactly what he said. Only with the added emphasis that we need to decide quickly toMorrow so that we don’t spend yet another Day discussing a mass claim that never happens. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2011, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1208 "2011-03-14T22:51:41Z")
> [@Astral\_Rejection](#): > > That’s exactly why I’m saying we can wait. We didn’t come to a clear conclusion, so we’ll just decide tomorrow. For all we know, the scum could hit something vital to one of the plans tonight, and tomorrow we can roll with that better. Concur. If the Vig dies toNight, then sach’s plan is entirely moot. If the Doc dies toNight, then mine becomes less useful. If a Mason dies toNight, the last hidden one probably needs to claim. We may also have more than one death, or none at all. Any outcome will affect the best possible course toMorrow, and I don’t think Mahaloth or Mental Guy should try to anticipate that toDay. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Skeezix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/aca169/32.png) [@Red\_Skeezix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Skeezix)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2011, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1209 "2011-03-14T23:07:36Z")
Hey Lookie! The Day’s over. Day 4 Vote Tally Suburban Plankton(5) :ComeToTheDarksideWeHaveCookies[1130], Mental Guy[1131], special ed[1176], guiri[1180], Mahaloth[1186] pedescribe(1) :sachertorte[1127] ComeToTheDarksideWeHaveCookies(1) :Zeriel[1132] Gadarene(1) : peekercpa[1185] storyteller0910(1) :Suburban Plankton[1188] special ed(1) :storyteller0910[1193] guiri(1) :Astral Rejection[1202] Astral Rejection(0) :[del]guiri[1124-1180][/del] Did Not Vote:Gadarene,pedescribe,Idle Thoughts,Manwich,One and Only Wanderers **Suburban Plankton** is dead. They were a **Vanilla Scum (Sleeper)** ---
**Author:** ![Suburban\_Plankton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suburban_plankton/32/219_2.png) [@Suburban\_Plankton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Suburban_Plankton)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2011, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1210 "2011-03-14T23:09:49Z")
BOO! BOOOOO! Hisssssssss… Eh, I would have got away with it if it weren’t for you meddling kids! Go Team! ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Skeezix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/aca169/32.png) [@Red\_Skeezix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Skeezix)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2011, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1211 "2011-03-14T23:10:24Z")
It is now Night 4. Night 4 will end 7 pm on March 16th. ---
**Author:** ![Idle\_Thoughts](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/838e76/32.png) [@Idle\_Thoughts](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Idle_Thoughts)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2011, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1212 "2011-03-14T23:10:53Z")
Nice! ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2011, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1213 "2011-03-14T23:11:54Z")
Well, that settles that. ---
**Author:** ![GuiriEnEspana](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bc79bd/32.png) [@GuiriEnEspana](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GuiriEnEspana)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2011, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1214 "2011-03-14T23:13:41Z")
Yay! Why did Day end an hour early? ---
**Author:** ![Astral\_Rejection](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/258eb7/32.png) [@Astral\_Rejection](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Astral_Rejection)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2011, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1215 "2011-03-14T23:16:23Z")
Did you forget to set your clock forward? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Skeezix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/aca169/32.png) [@Red\_Skeezix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Skeezix)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2011, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1216 "2011-03-14T23:21:44Z")
\*\* The day ended an hour early because the mod wrote EST when he meant the more generic ET, forgetting that this weekend was DST. My apologies.\*\* ---
**Author:** ![Manwich](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e480ec/32.png) [@Manwich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Manwich)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2011, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1217 "2011-03-14T23:27:22Z")
Thanks for understanding about my lack of participation. Things are somewhat back to normal in my town now and I should be able to participate in the next Day’s play. And: woo hoo! Nice work people. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2011, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1218 "2011-03-14T23:35:55Z")
Works for me. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1219 "2011-03-15T00:31:36Z")
Oh yeah! Yeah! Yeah! Yeah! ---
**Author:** ![ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e9bcb4/32.png) [@ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757/1220 "2011-03-15T00:36:40Z")
w00t!!! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757.md?page=60) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/glasnost-mafia/571757.md?page=62)