# Global Climactic Change (Global Warming): Is it upon us? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 27, 2006, 5:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-climactic-change-global-warming-is-it-upon-us/350049 "2006-03-27T05:59:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2006, 5:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-climactic-change-global-warming-is-it-upon-us/350049/1 "2006-03-27T05:59:24Z")
I was reading through [this](http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/03/26/coverstory/index.html) article today and thought I’d post it here to continue the ongoing debate on Global Warming (or Global Climate Change). > [@](#): > > Be worried, be very worried > The climate is crashing, and global warming is to blame > > … > > Never mind what you’ve heard about global warming as a slow-motion emergency that would take decades to play out. Suddenly and unexpectedly, the crisis is upon us. > > From heat waves to storms to floods to fires to massive glacial melts, the global climate seems to be crashing around us > > The problem – as scientists suspected but few others appreciated – is that global climate systems are booby-trapped with tipping points and feedback loops, thresholds past which the slow creep of environmental decay gives way to sudden and self-perpetuating collapse. That’s just what’s happening now. > > It’s at the north and south poles – where ice cover is crumbling to slush – that the crisis is being felt the most acutely. > > Late last year, for example, researchers analyzed data from Canadian and European satellites and found that the Greenland ice sheet is not only melting, but doing so faster and faster, with 53 cubic miles draining away into the sea last year alone, compared to 23 cubic miles in 1996. > > … > > As fast as global warming is changing the oceans and ice caps, it’s having an even more immediate effect on land. Droughts are increasingly common as higher temperatures also bake moisture out of soil faster, causing dry regions that live at the margins to tip into full-blown crisis. > > Wildfires in such sensitive regions as Indonesia, the western U.S. and even inland Alaska have been occurring with increased frequency as timberlands grow more parched. Those forests that don’t succumb to fire can simply die from thirst. Are these things indicated in the article enough data to definitively say that our climate has reached a critical point of no return? IS there enough data to predict (as the article does) what that change may be? Is it as grim as the article makes it out to be? What is the science behind all this really? How good are the theories…or are we beyond theories and into fact at this point? What are the counter views…and how well are they supported by science? I don’t want to talk about the causes in this thread (there are plenty of other threads debating human vs natural reasons for Global Warming). I want to talk about whats actually happening and how good a handle we currently have on whats going on…and where it may be going. -XT ---
**Author:** ![ParentalAdvisory](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/53a042/32.png) [@ParentalAdvisory](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParentalAdvisory)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2006, 9:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-climactic-change-global-warming-is-it-upon-us/350049/2 "2006-03-27T09:46:10Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > …and where it may be going. Its going to warm up. And then in another 20,000 years, it will cool. And after that… it will warm up again. This is Earths cycle! Before it was ice, it was water. What does that tell you? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2006, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-climactic-change-global-warming-is-it-upon-us/350049/3 "2006-03-27T14:28:34Z")
> [@ParentalAdvisory](#): > > Its going to warm up. And then in another 20,000 years, it will cool. And after that… it will warm up again. This is Earths cycle! Before it was ice, it was water. What does that tell you? Nothing helpful. It is possible that, in this case, the inevitable warming cycle is not following the same schedule it would have without human agency. We might have speeded it up, a **lot.** And that would be bad. We would not have time to adapt to rising sea levels, as we would if it were a process stretched out over centuries. ---
**Author:** ![SentientMeat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@SentientMeat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SentientMeat)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2006, 2:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-climactic-change-global-warming-is-it-upon-us/350049/4 "2006-03-27T14:42:50Z")
I always suspected this might happen: those (not **xt** necessarily) who denied anthropogenic climate change (ACC) for years suddenly say we’re now _too far gone_ to do anything about it, so let’s keep forcing the greenhouse gases off equilibrium willy nilly. Yes, the may well be tipping points. But what climatologists are telling us is that, crucially, we probably **haven’t** reached them yet. We’re currently at 380 parts per million (ppm) for CO[sub]2\*\* and rising (by about 3ppm per year), compared to 280 ppm for the hundreds or thousands of millennia before the 1980’s. Most climatologists think the tipping points in **xt** ’s article are actually around [450 ppm or higher](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3975325.stm). And that means we have **decades** at least to do something, but we have to start **now**. Even putting off the tipping point for a year or so might buy just enough time to develop the necessary technology or strategy. Otherwise, our grandchildren might well read these threads and articles and ask us how the hell we could be so myopic and selfish as to not even _try when we had the chance_. ---
**Author:** ![jjimm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba8739/32.png) [@jjimm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jjimm)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2006, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-climactic-change-global-warming-is-it-upon-us/350049/5 "2006-03-27T15:03:19Z")
I have only _ever_ seen US conservatives railing against the anthropogenic effect. They seem to think that the IPCC is nothing but a UN plot to con the US economy out of its pre-eminence. Either that or it’s Big Oil lobbying that’s causing it. And yet, despite this state of denial, the majority of the world’s meteorologists have been increasingly convinced by the theory, and latterly by the growing evidence. Personally, I’ll [listen to the scientists](http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1686) not the politicians. > [@](#): > > …In recent years, all major scientific bodies in the United States whose members’ expertise bears directly on the matter have issued similar statements [to that of the IPCC]. For example, the National Academy of Sciences report, Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions, begins: “Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth’s atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise”. The report explicitly asks whether the IPCC assessment is a fair summary of professional scientific thinking, and answers yes: “The IPCC’s conclusion that most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations accurately reflects the current thinking of the scientific community on this issue”. > > Others agree. The American Meteorological Society, the American Geophysical Union, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) all have issued statements in recent years concluding that the evidence for human modification of climate is compelling. Over here our conservatives and [Conservatives agree](http://www.conservatives.com/tile.do?def=news.story.page&obj_id=128717&speeches=1): > [@](#): > > …no-one can argue that, over the last century, there has been a steady increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. That has to be of serious concern to us all, and we all have to take our responsibility for that. Hell, even our [fascists agree](http://www.bnp.org.uk/landandpeople/environmentissues.htm) that it’s real. The political football outside the US is not that it isn’t happening, but rather the way to deal with it. It’s time to stop this crazy denial, and start working out what the hell to do. And quick. ---
**Author:** ![SentientMeat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@SentientMeat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SentientMeat)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2006, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-climactic-change-global-warming-is-it-upon-us/350049/6 "2006-03-27T15:24:47Z")
And, to add to **jjimm** ’s list, even the [US government](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/2023835.stm) are no longer ACC deniers. Heck, the Pentagon even thinks it might cause [WWIII](http://observer.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,6903,1153513,00.html). ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2006, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-climactic-change-global-warming-is-it-upon-us/350049/7 "2006-03-27T15:25:43Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > I want to talk about whats actually happening and how good a handle we currently have on whats going on…and where it may be going. > > -XT Well, for one thing you can kiss FLA as an important swing state goodbye. ---
**Author:** ![saoirse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/5daacb/32.png) [@saoirse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/saoirse)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2006, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-climactic-change-global-warming-is-it-upon-us/350049/8 "2006-03-27T15:34:57Z")
I think almost all scientists believe it is real. They just don’t agree on what the denouement will be. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2006, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-climactic-change-global-warming-is-it-upon-us/350049/9 "2006-03-27T15:58:42Z")
> [@Jonathan Chance](#): > > Well, for one thing you can kiss FLA as an important swing state goodbye. Watch how you talk about our lovely Florida Archipelago! ---
**Author:** ![jshore](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/b5e925/32.png) [@jshore](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jshore)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2006, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-climactic-change-global-warming-is-it-upon-us/350049/10 "2006-03-27T16:11:44Z")
I agree with **SentientMeat**. It is becoming clear that we have already committed ourselves to at least a moderate amount of additional warming because of the amount of CO2 currently in the atmosphere (and also some additional CO2 that we will no doubt emit because we can’t change our whole system of energy production on a dime). So, adaptation is clearly important. However, it is very likely that we can still avoid the worst effects if we start acting earnestly now. There are still considerable uncertainties associated various aspects such as the melting of land ice on Antarctica and Greenland, the slowdown of the thermohaline circulation (which in large part drives Gulf Stream), the possible additional release of CO2 and methane by natural processes that the warming causes (such as melting of permafrost, etc.) And, we don’t know exactly where the various “tipping points” are. Basically, we are involved in a grand experiment on the planet’s climate system. We don’t yet understand all aspects of it well enough to know exactly what will happen. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that “nothing of much of consequence” is not a very likely scenario. if we continue merrily along our current path…and that, because of feedback effects, we may have less time to prevent severe consequences than we may have thought. > [@ParentalAdvisory](#): > > Its going to warm up. And then in another 20,000 years, it will cool. And after that… it will warm up again. This is Earths cycle! Before it was ice, it was water. What does that tell you? The amount of CO2 currently in the atmosphere is something that the earth has not experienced in at least the last 700,000 years and likely the last 20 million years. Of course, over the entire earth’s geologic history, there have been dramatic variations in the climate. However, this is no excuse for causing one of our own on an extremely short time scale geologically-speaking just to see what it’s like. Noone (or very few people) are claiming that the earth and life on the earth will not survive it. After all, there have been major extinction events before in the past. However, for our own welfare, we might want to avoid this experiment. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [March 27, 2006, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-climactic-change-global-warming-is-it-upon-us/350049/11 "2006-03-27T16:24:11Z")
> [@jshore](#): > > Noone (or very few people) are claiming that the earth and life on the earth will not survive it. After all, there have been major extinction events before in the past. However, for our own welfare, we might want to avoid this experiment. Humanity will survive but civilisation may not. If climate change swiftly reduces the major crop-growing regions to desert then things would get bad pretty quickly. How many crop failures in North american grain growing regions will it take for things to get ugly. I read about an insurance industry study a few years ago that predicted that by 2050 the annual damage and destruction caused by climate change would exceed world GDP. ---
**Author:** ![ParentalAdvisory](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/53a042/32.png) [@ParentalAdvisory](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParentalAdvisory)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2006, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-climactic-change-global-warming-is-it-upon-us/350049/12 "2006-03-28T02:35:12Z")
The current GDP, or including inflation at that time. ---
**Author:** ![ParentalAdvisory](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/53a042/32.png) [@ParentalAdvisory](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParentalAdvisory)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2006, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-climactic-change-global-warming-is-it-upon-us/350049/13 "2006-03-28T02:36:34Z")
Slap a ‘?’ on the end of that. ---
**Author:** ![alaricthegoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4bbf92/32.png) [@alaricthegoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alaricthegoth)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2006, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-climactic-change-global-warming-is-it-upon-us/350049/14 "2006-03-28T02:47:46Z")
> [@ParentalAdvisory](#): > > The current GDP, or including inflation at that time. which one is tolerable??? ---
**Author:** ![ParentalAdvisory](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/53a042/32.png) [@ParentalAdvisory](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParentalAdvisory)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2006, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-climactic-change-global-warming-is-it-upon-us/350049/15 "2006-03-28T03:27:58Z")
Well in 2050, if the GDP performs like it has in the last 100 years, and if they’re going by the current GDP, it may likely only be a fraction of what it will be in 2050. While it may cause some economic harm, it may only be slight. Where as if they’re predicting damages exceeding the GDP in 2050, then yeah, that would suck. Also, if it was a _prediction_ by the insurance industry, well, since when do they never cry wolf? An excuse to raise rates IMO. If I didn’t know any better, I would think that the insurance industry loves all this huss and fuss over global warming. Pay off damages, raise rates, profit, repeat. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2006, 8:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-climactic-change-global-warming-is-it-upon-us/350049/16 "2006-03-28T08:52:25Z")
> [@ParentalAdvisory](#): > > The current GDP, or including inflation at that time. I doubt that really matters. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2006, 8:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-climactic-change-global-warming-is-it-upon-us/350049/17 "2006-03-28T08:55:56Z")
> [@ParentalAdvisory](#): > > Well in 2050, if the GDP performs like it has in the last 100 years, and if they’re going by the current GDP, it may likely only be a fraction of what it will be in 2050. While it may cause some economic harm, it may only be slight. Where as if they’re predicting damages exceeding the GDP in 2050, then yeah, that would suck. > > Also, if it was a _prediction_ by the insurance industry, well, since when do they never cry wolf? An excuse to raise rates IMO. If I didn’t know any better, I would think that the insurance industry loves all this huss and fuss over global warming. Pay off damages, raise rates, profit, repeat. No - they wanted someone to take the problem seriously so they aren’t ruined by payouts. Do you see them dancing in the streets after hurricanes? If anyone believes for a single second that an annual damage rate of world GDP is in any way sustainable they are grotesquely mistaken. ---
**Author:** ![SentientMeat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@SentientMeat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SentientMeat)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2006, 11:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-climactic-change-global-warming-is-it-upon-us/350049/18 "2006-03-28T11:39:13Z")
For all but a few nations (and _all_ industrialised democracies), the rate of GDP increase is _far below_ the rate of [weather-based damage increase](http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics/2001syr/large/08.17.jpg) (the decadal average smooths out the peaks from factors like _El Nino_). ---
**Author:** ![intention](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e95f7d/32.png) [@intention](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/intention)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2006, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-climactic-change-global-warming-is-it-upon-us/350049/19 "2006-03-28T18:51:56Z")
> [@tagos](#): > > If anyone believes for a single second that an annual damage rate of world GDP is in any way sustainable they are grotesquely mistaken. If anyone believes for a single second that climate change could cause an annual damage rate equal to the world GDP they desperately need a reality transplant … it’s not even remotely possible. w. ---
**Author:** ![jjimm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba8739/32.png) [@jjimm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jjimm)\ **Post date:** [March 28, 2006, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-climactic-change-global-warming-is-it-upon-us/350049/20 "2006-03-28T19:16:09Z")
> [@intention](#): > > If anyone believes for a single second that climate change could cause an annual damage rate equal to the world GDP they desperately need a reality transplant … it’s not even remotely possible. > > w. Why not _remotely_ possible? The value of global assets is unbelievably vast - tied up in property, agricultural futures, mineral resources, etc. etc. I don’t know how much “the world is worth”, but the value of that which is potentially damagable is likely to be millions, if not billions, of times the value of the world’s annual GDP. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-climactic-change-global-warming-is-it-upon-us/350049.md?page=2)