# Global Cooling ... has it begun? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 17, 2008, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-cooling-has-it-begun/441694 "2008-03-17T20:30:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 9\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2008, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-cooling-has-it-begun/441694/61 "2008-03-21T02:16:41Z")
[QUOTE=aptronym] ocean [/quote] :shrug: If it’s not in the ocean (deep or otherwise?), one wonders where (if anywhere) it is. ---
**Author:** ![aptronym](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e47774/32.png) [@aptronym](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aptronym)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2008, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-cooling-has-it-begun/441694/62 "2008-03-21T02:27:31Z")
[QUOTE=brazil84] :shrug: If it’s not in the ocean (deep or otherwise?), one wonders where (if anywhere) it is. [/QUOTE] Ocean surface and air. ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2008, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-cooling-has-it-begun/441694/63 "2008-03-21T02:29:10Z")
[QUOTE=aptronym] Ocean surface and air. [/QUOTE] Cite? ---
**Author:** ![aptronym](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e47774/32.png) [@aptronym](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aptronym)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2008, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-cooling-has-it-begun/441694/64 "2008-03-21T02:34:32Z")
[QUOTE=brazil84] Cite? [/QUOTE] Already given. [QUOTE=aptronym] Here’s an abstract from Science which is most clear - it has warmings for both the top 300m (+0.31[super]o[/super]C) and the vertical average (+0.06[super]o[/super]C). [/QUOTE] ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [March 21, 2008, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-cooling-has-it-begun/441694/65 "2008-03-21T02:40:38Z")
[QUOTE=aptronym] Already given. [/QUOTE] > [@aptronym's cite](#): > > We quantify the interannual-to-decadal variability of the heat content (mean temperature) of the world ocean from the surface through 3000-meter depth for the period **1948 to 1998.** bolding added. ---
**Author:** ![aptronym](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e47774/32.png) [@aptronym](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aptronym)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2008, 12:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-cooling-has-it-begun/441694/66 "2008-03-22T00:36:42Z")
> [@brazil84](#): > > We quantify the interannual-to-decadal variability of the heat content (mean temperature) of the world ocean from the surface through 3000-meter depth for the period **1948 to 1998**. Oh, I see. You’re only considering 1998 to 2008? Your previous post (#61) would then be correct: There is no good evidence that the Earth has warmed in the past 10 years. However, the relevance of such a statistic would be dubious. As I (and **jshore** ) pointed out, taking anything less than one solar cycle (11 years) into consideration basically gives noise as results. If you look at the charts I posted in post #59, you’ll note that none of the five 10-year plots show any clear temperature trend taken individually. [http://img180.imageshack.us/img180/2397/tempco2bgu4.png](http://img180.imageshack.us/img180/2397/tempco2bgu4.png) [http://img180.imageshack.us/img180/8199/tempco2cfx4.png](http://img180.imageshack.us/img180/8199/tempco2cfx4.png) [http://img527.imageshack.us/img527/3923/tempco2dgn2.png](http://img527.imageshack.us/img527/3923/tempco2dgn2.png) [http://img182.imageshack.us/img182/933/tempco2eir4.png](http://img182.imageshack.us/img182/933/tempco2eir4.png) [http://img527.imageshack.us/img527/2694/tempco2fxw3.png](http://img527.imageshack.us/img527/2694/tempco2fxw3.png) The cry of “nothing has happened in the past 10 years, global warming must be false” is one that could have been raised in 1968, 1978, 1998, and 2008. Yet, when taken as a 50-year chunk (4.5 solar cycles), it’s clear there is a trend. [http://img180.imageshack.us/img180/7517/tempco2ack9.png](http://img180.imageshack.us/img180/7517/tempco2ack9.png) If it helps drive the point, I will take out the x-axes on the five 10-year plots, and have you guess which four plots are part of a 40-year upward trend you agree exists, and which one is the one you’re complaining about. ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2008, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-cooling-has-it-begun/441694/67 "2008-03-22T01:09:08Z")
[QUOTE=aptronym] Oh, I see. You’re only considering 1998 to 2008? [/quote] I will explain this once and only once. 1. In the last few years, CO2 levels have risen, while surface temperatures have apparently not. 2. As I said earlier in the thread, “In fairness, I would concede that 10 years of no warming – considered alone – is not enough to torpedo catastrophic AGW theory.” 3. I pointed out that according to to one article, certain ocean water temps have not risen in recent years either. 4. This raises a bit of a question as to where the “expected warming” has been over the past few years. 5. You claimed that the missing heat was in the “ocean surface and air” 6. I asked for a cite. 7. You gave a cite that refers to years before 1998, which is irrelevant to my question (which was not addressed to you anyway). 8. You have not backed up your claim. It’s as simple as that. So simple that it requires no further discussion. ---
**Author:** ![aptronym](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e47774/32.png) [@aptronym](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aptronym)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2008, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-cooling-has-it-begun/441694/68 "2008-03-22T01:27:58Z")
[QUOTE=brazil84] In the last few years, CO2 levels have risen, while surface temperatures have apparently not. [/quote] Did you understand my post? I explained it once, I will explain it again. 1. The Sun moves in 11-year cycles. 2. Natural changes in climate are drive mostly by the Sun. 3. Taking a time period shorter than an average solar cycle makes as much sense as using the Dow Jones change for one day to make statements about the long-term economy. 4. When you take a time period shorter than an expected cycle, your result is mostly a function of (a) noise and (b) where exactly in the cycle you started. 5. As a result, any speculation on what happened between 1998 and 2008 needs no more explanation than, say, what happened between 1958 and 1968, when temperatures dropped by 0.4 [sup]o[/sup]C, or between 1978 and 1988, when temperatures shot up by 0.4 [sup]o[/sup]C. 6. In all 5 decades, the amount of the increase falls within the interdecadal noise. You cannot say anything about whether the temperatures went up or down or stayed the same in those 10 year chunks. It’s as simple as that. ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [March 22, 2008, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-cooling-has-it-begun/441694/69 "2008-03-22T01:47:09Z")
[QUOTE=Bryan Ekers] Alvin, Theodore and Simon would seem less exotic? [/QUOTE] Cute. But actually, I doubt it. Helium is apparently 0.000524 per cent of the atmosphere. If it doubled to 0.001048 percent, would it make much of a difference? I don’t know, but I wouldn’t assume it just from the doubling. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-cooling-has-it-begun/441694.md?page=3)