# Global Warming stopped in 1998, now 8 years of NO global warming. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 3, 2006, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-now-8-years-of-no-global-warming/355238 "2006-05-03T14:45:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Beechnut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9fc348/32.png) [@Beechnut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beechnut)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2006, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-now-8-years-of-no-global-warming/355238/21 "2006-05-03T16:19:15Z")
[QUOTE=Kimstu] Both these graphs are derived from NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis research (I found [the page](http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/) that I think **Beechnut** is using to generate his/her graphs, btw), but they seem to be describing somewhat different things. The graph in **scr4** ’s link plots “Global-Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly” (in degrees C) from 1880 to 2000, with the value for 1980 being around 0 degrees and subsequent values generally increasing, to a high of about 0.6 degrees in about 2002. However, the graph in **Beechnut** ’s link plots “Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index” (in degrees C) from 1998 to 2006. The big spike in 1998 may distract from the overall more gradual rise between 1999 and 2006, but the rise is still there in the graph. I conclude that what this shows is mostly that it’s harder to spot data trends over shorter timescales than over longer ones. Depending on which set of data points you pick, the general trend can appear more or less pronounced. [/QUOTE] You are correct, the time scale is important. However, the fact is the troposphere and land-ocean temperatures have not show an increase relative to April 1998. If global warming was taking place, they certainly would have increased in 8 years. The monthly data show no trend and the annual don’t neither relative to 1998. This concept that el nino generated it own energy, plus given it was localized, doesn’t seem to make any sense to discount 1998. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2006, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-now-8-years-of-no-global-warming/355238/22 "2006-05-03T16:21:59Z")
[QUOTE=Beechnut] Well, here is the annual graph using the NASA data and I don’t see any indication of incresing global temperatures in the period 1998 through 2005? [/QUOTE] You continue to use 1998 as a base line and you continue to look at very short periods to identify trending. That is the sort of thing that prompted the popular press (not serious scientists) to project a new imminent ice age in the early 1970s. You need to look at trends extending over many years. ---
**Author:** ![Beechnut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9fc348/32.png) [@Beechnut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beechnut)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2006, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-now-8-years-of-no-global-warming/355238/23 "2006-05-03T16:25:07Z")
[QUOTE=tomndebb] You continue to use 1998 as a base line and you continue to look at very short periods to identify trending. That is the sort of thing that prompted the popular press (not serious scientists) to project a new imminent ice age in the early 1970s. You need to look at trends extending over many years. [/QUOTE] How many years? Maybe Earth’s last tropical period? ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2006, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-now-8-years-of-no-global-warming/355238/24 "2006-05-03T16:50:38Z")
> [@Beechnut](#): > > However, the fact is the troposphere and land-ocean temperatures have not show an increase relative to April 1998. If global warming was taking place, they certainly would have increased in 8 years. The monthly data show no trend and the annual don’t neither relative to 1998. This is where the concept of a “data spike” is important: i.e., an isolated outlying value that doesn’t affect the larger trend. Yes, there was a significant temperature spike in 1998, but there was an overall rising trend from 1999 to 2006—temperatures **did** increase. The fact that the 1998 spike was higher than the upper end of the gradual rise (so far, at least) doesn’t necessarily mean that the rising trend is insignificant. > [@Beechnut](#): > > This concept that el nino generated it own energy, plus given it was localized, doesn’t seem to make any sense to discount 1998. Whoa. “Generated its own energy”? I don’t think anybody’s claiming that. **Sentient Meat** ’s point seems to be that El Nino gets its energy from elsewhere in the ocean, not that it somehow spontaneously produces it. Also, why should the “localized” nature of El Nino mean that it couldn’t have a global effect on climate? Volcanoes and human industrial emissions are relatively localized too, but they appear to have global effects on climate. > [@Beechnut](#): > > How many years? Maybe Earth’s last tropical period? No, not if what you’re interested in is the hypothesis, of anthropogenic global warming due to human-produced greenhouse-gas emissions. For that, you need to compare data from the era of industrialization (when humans started significantly changing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases) with data from earlier periods that had a similar climate. ---
**Author:** ![tomndebb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b9e5f3/32.png) [@tomndebb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tomndebb)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2006, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-now-8-years-of-no-global-warming/355238/25 "2006-05-03T16:55:37Z")
[QUOTE=Beechnut] How many years? Maybe Earth’s last tropical period? [/QUOTE] Nah. Back to 1769 would be fine. Frankly, I do not know how far back we “need” to go. I do know that, depending on the technology used, there are only so many years we can go back. Ice cores can take us back thousands of years; some satellite technology goes back fewer than 20 and some is still being developed. However, as more than one poster has already indicated, every graph (including the ones to which you have linked) indicates that 1998 was an anomalous spike. Beginning any investigation from that year would skew the results. ---
**Author:** ![Beechnut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9fc348/32.png) [@Beechnut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beechnut)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2006, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-now-8-years-of-no-global-warming/355238/26 "2006-05-03T16:57:55Z")
[QUOTE=Kimstu] Whoa. “Generated its own energy”? I don’t think anybody’s claiming that. **Sentient Meat** ’s point seems to be that El Nino gets its energy from elsewhere in the ocean, not that it somehow spontaneously produces it. Also, why should the “localized” nature of El Nino mean that it couldn’t have a global effect on climate? Volcanoes and human industrial emissions are relatively localized too, but they appear to have global effects on climate. [/QUOTE] If El Nino was deriving its energy from other places on Earth, wouldn’t the Earth’s total global energy / temperature still stay the same? Thus, the self generated concept if you want to discount 1998. ---
**Author:** ![Beechnut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9fc348/32.png) [@Beechnut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beechnut)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2006, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-now-8-years-of-no-global-warming/355238/27 "2006-05-03T17:07:40Z")
[QUOTE=Beechnut] If El Nino was deriving its energy from other places on Earth, wouldn’t the Earth’s total global energy / temperature still stay the same? Thus, the self generated concept if you want to discount 1998. [/QUOTE] Plus the 1998 global land-ocean temperature didn’t show a corresponding increase in temperature … it didn’t, which you expected if El Nino was drawing its energy / temperature from other sources, net “zero”. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2006, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-now-8-years-of-no-global-warming/355238/28 "2006-05-03T17:11:32Z")
> [@Beechnut](#): > > If El Nino was deriving its energy from other places on Earth, wouldn’t the Earth’s total global energy / temperature still stay the same? **Total** energy over the entire amount of the earth’s mass, maybe. Global temperature over its surface, no, not necessarily. After all, the earth isn’t completely or uniformly permeable to thermal energy everywhere. (And a damn good thing, too, right? Considering that the vast majority of the earth’s mass is in its mantle and core, which are pretty fricking hot! :eek: If all parts of the earth had to stay in thermal equilibrium all the time, things would get mighty uncomfortable around here.) ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2006, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-now-8-years-of-no-global-warming/355238/29 "2006-05-03T17:28:55Z")
[QUOTE=Beechnut] Well, here is the annual graph using the NASA data and I don’t see any indication of incresing global temperatures in the period 1998 through 2005? [http://img272.imageshack.us/img272/8995/ux35xx.gif](http://img272.imageshack.us/img272/8995/ux35xx.gif) [/QUOTE] You’re right. But I don’t see any indication of a _lack_ of increase either. Tell you what, do a least-squares fit to a linear function and give us a confidence interval for the slope. If the best-fit slope and confidence are smaller than the claimed value for global warming rate, you might have something there. ---
**Author:** ![Beechnut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9fc348/32.png) [@Beechnut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beechnut)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2006, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-now-8-years-of-no-global-warming/355238/30 "2006-05-03T17:32:51Z")
[QUOTE=Kimstu] **Total** energy over the entire amount of the earth’s mass, maybe. Global temperature over its surface, no, not necessarily. After all, the earth isn’t completely or uniformly permeable to thermal energy everywhere. (And a damn good thing, too, right? Considering that the vast majority of the earth’s mass is in its mantle and core, which are pretty fricking hot! :eek: If all parts of the earth had to stay in thermal equilibrium all the time, things would get mighty uncomfortable around here.) [/QUOTE] Well let’s look at this graph combining the land-ocean / lower troposphere temperature variances for the years 1998 through 2006. Sorry that it is a little cluttered. The references and data links are provided in the individual previous graphs for each. If the troposphere temperature warmed because of El Nino, wouldn’t the land-ocean have shown some decrease or at least have been lower based on an energy balance? They were both “high?” [http://img327.imageshack.us/img327/7861/ux42iv.gif](http://img327.imageshack.us/img327/7861/ux42iv.gif) ---
**Author:** ![Beechnut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9fc348/32.png) [@Beechnut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beechnut)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2006, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-now-8-years-of-no-global-warming/355238/31 "2006-05-03T17:52:26Z")
[QUOTE=scr4] You’re right. But I don’t see any indication of a _lack_ of increase either. Tell you what, do a least-squares fit to a linear function and give us a confidence interval for the slope. If the best-fit slope and confidence are smaller than the claimed value for global warming rate, you might have something there. [/QUOTE] Below … R^2 = 0.0028 … random, no trend … X Coefficient 0.0034, Std Err = 0.0262 … t ~ 0.1307 (no significance, random) [http://img424.imageshack.us/img424/6574/ux54pv.gif](http://img424.imageshack.us/img424/6574/ux54pv.gif) ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2006, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-now-8-years-of-no-global-warming/355238/32 "2006-05-03T18:00:53Z")
> [@](#): > > The report, from the federal Climate Change Science Program, said trends seen over the last 50 years “cannot be explained by natural processes alone”. > > It found that temperatures have increased in the lower atmosphere as well as at the Earth’s surface… > > The new report, Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere, re-analyses the atmospheric data and concludes that tropospheric temperatures are rising. This means, it says, that the impact of human activities upon the global climate are clear. > > “The observed patterns of change over the past 50 years cannot be explained by natural processes alone, nor by the effect of short-lived atmospheric constituents (such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone) alone,” it says. > **[BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | 'Clear' human impact on climate](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4969772.stm)** > > A report funded by the US government finds "clear evidence" of human-induced climate change. ---
**Author:** ![Beechnut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9fc348/32.png) [@Beechnut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beechnut)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2006, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-now-8-years-of-no-global-warming/355238/33 "2006-05-03T18:12:01Z")
[QUOTE=griffin1977] > **[BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | 'Clear' human impact on climate](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4969772.stm)** > > A report funded by the US government finds "clear evidence" of human-induced climate change. [/QUOTE] It doesn’t explain why there has been no increase in global temperature, lower troposphere or land ocean, over the last 8 years? ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2006, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-now-8-years-of-no-global-warming/355238/34 "2006-05-03T18:16:56Z")
> [@Beechnut](#): > > If the troposphere temperature warmed because of El Nino, wouldn’t the land-ocean have shown some decrease or at least have been lower based on an energy balance? Why? If the energy from El Nino comes from deep-ocean currents, we would have to measure those deep-ocean temperatures (as **KeithT** noted above) to detect an energy decrease. But we wouldn’t necessarily expect an energy decrease in the deep ocean to show up as a temperature drop in the land-ocean surface temperatures. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2006, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-now-8-years-of-no-global-warming/355238/35 "2006-05-03T18:20:59Z")
> [@Beechnut](#): > > It doesn’t explain why there has been no increase in global temperature, lower troposphere or land ocean, over the last 8 years? We appear to still be sticking on this same point of misleading phrasing. “The increasing values since the most recent spike have not exceeded the spike value” != “there has been no increase”. ---
**Author:** ![Beechnut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9fc348/32.png) [@Beechnut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beechnut)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2006, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-now-8-years-of-no-global-warming/355238/36 "2006-05-03T18:21:47Z")
[QUOTE=Kimstu] Why? If the energy from El Nino comes from deep-ocean currents, we would have to measure those deep-ocean temperatures (as **KeithT** noted above) to detect an energy decrease. But we wouldn’t necessarily expect an energy decrease in the deep ocean to show up as a temperature drop in the land-ocean surface temperatures. [/QUOTE] Based on an enthalpy basis do you want explain how temperatures at “ocean depths” contribute to the upper surface temperatures. Do you know what the temperatures are in the oceans at “depths?” ---
**Author:** ![Beechnut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9fc348/32.png) [@Beechnut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Beechnut)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2006, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-now-8-years-of-no-global-warming/355238/37 "2006-05-03T18:26:57Z")
[QUOTE=Kimstu] We appear to still be sticking on this same point of misleading phrasing. “The increasing values since the most recent spike have not exceeded the spike value” != “there has been no increase”. [/QUOTE] What do you mean by spike? Did someone artifically create this spike? Where did the energy come from for this spike? Plus, the temperatures haven’t even exceeded the “spike” less 0.200 C. ---
**Author:** ![MMI](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/53a042/32.png) [@MMI](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MMI)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2006, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-now-8-years-of-no-global-warming/355238/38 "2006-05-03T18:36:02Z")
[QUOTE=Beechnut] Based on an enthalpy basis do you want explain how temperatures at “ocean depths” contribute to the upper surface temperatures. Do you know what the temperatures are in the oceans at “depths?” [/QUOTE] My assumption is that an el nino would be a failure (or rather a temporary decrease) in a heat transfer mechanism from the actively solar heated surface to colder, deeper currents. Not really an explanation per se but at least the signs are right. What is magical about 1998 for you though? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2006, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-now-8-years-of-no-global-warming/355238/39 "2006-05-03T18:43:47Z")
[QUOTE=Kimstu] We appear to still be sticking on this same point of misleading phrasing. [/QUOTE] That’s putting it mildly. I’m just trying to follow the subject, and I have no idea why this thread is going in circles over such a simple issue. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2006, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-now-8-years-of-no-global-warming/355238/40 "2006-05-03T18:45:15Z")
> [@Beechnut](#): > > do you want explain how temperatures at “ocean depths” contribute to the upper surface temperatures As I understand it (and note that IANAOceanographer), periodic upwelling from the comparatively cold thermocline cools the comparatively warm ocean surface (as well as providing it with nutrients). When the thermocline is depressed, this upwelling is less efficient, so the upper waters stay warmer and the lower waters stay colder, and you get an El Nino. Hence the ocean surface and atmosphere temperatures are warmer than they ordinarily would have been. > [@Beechnut](#): > > Do you know what the temperatures are in the oceans at “depths?” [Sez here that](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermocline) in the thermocline, water temperatures drop about 20 degrees Celsius with each additional 150 meters of depth; below the thermocline, temps are close to freezing. > [@Beechnut](#): > > What do you mean by spike? I thought I already answered this. A data spike is, as I said, “an isolated outlying value” that doesn’t follow the general trend of the data. > [@Beechnut](#): > > Did someone artifically create this spike? No. Data spikes can be due to a number of causes: for example, when a brief surge in one of the data inputs temporarily overwhelms the others. That is what is thought to have happened in the case of the 1998 temperature spike, where the unusually warm ocean-surface temperatures caused by the El Nino effect briefly forced up the global temperature values before dropping back into their normal pattern after 1998. > [@](#): > > Where did the energy come from for this spike? From the unusually warm ocean-surface temperatures in the El Nino years, caused by the unusual absence of surface cooling from deep-ocean upwelling. I’m sorry, but it seems I’ve been explaining the same things over and over here. Could you tell me what part of this isn’t clear? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-now-8-years-of-no-global-warming/355238.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-stopped-in-1998-now-8-years-of-no-global-warming/355238.md?page=3)