Global Warming stopped in 1998, now 8 years of NO global warming.

[Beechnut]

@SentientMeat

Not if the land-ocean temperature doesn’t include the deep ocean temperature. Which it doesn’t, since the overwhelming majority of ocean temperature gauges are at the surface.

Aren’t the deep ocean temperatures lower than the surface?

[Beechnut]

@SentientMeat

In fact, I think the point of confusion regards this idea of “cold moving up” from the ocean depths. The El Nino phenomenon is more intuitively understood if one considers heat moving down in a non-Nino year, but far less so in a Nino year such that it stays at the surface and moves in to the atmosphere instead. In 1998, a very small amount of heat moved down into the depths, causing the spike which skews the graph (and which it is statistically incompetent to use as a starting point in a graph).

Then shouldn’t the global land-ocean temperatures in 1998 have been higher?

Second … on an energy balance they shouldn’t have anyway based on you arguments.

[Beechnut]

@tomndebb

The troposhere is every bit as “local” as the other entities being measured; it is just a larger locality. The troposphere exchanges energy with the oceans (which exchange energies from surface areas to deep areas) and with the stratosphere, as well as with the surface of the land, itself. When we compute averages of the “global” troposphere, were are still limiting ourselves to one “locale,” we have just focused on the air at a certain height/depth surrounding the lands and oceans and surrounded, in turn, by the less dense air above it.

In addition, the conservation of energy has to be much more carefully defined than we have done so far in this thread. The Earth is not a closed system as it constantly receives energy from the sun while radiating off energy into space. In addition, the energy at the surface cna be affected by reserves from below the mantle. before we try to determine anything based on conservation of energy, we probably need to figure out how much is being added to and subtracted from the system each day.

Then you are arguing that the whole global warming concept over time has been based on “locales?” Correct … no meaning?

[Beechnut]

@Ludovic

Correct. During one year of the time period in question. That one year is left as an exercise for the reader.

Well sort of correct. If 1998 is a year left to an excercise for the reader, then every year is also. The anomolies between land-ocean, lower troposphere, etc. every year are just as variable.

[SentientMeat]

@Beechnut

Aren’t the deep ocean temperatures lower than the surface?

Yes, but in an El Nino year they’re lower still. The total temperature of (air+land+surface ocean)+(deep ocean) remains the same*, but less heat flows into the ocean depths. The two brackets become more unequal, but still sum identically.

• ignoring global warming here, which is via a different mechanism entirely - namely digging up safely stored greenhouse gas stockpiles adn releasing them.

Then shouldn’t the global land-ocean temperatures in 1998 have been higher?

Higher than what?

Second … on an energy balance they shouldn’t have anyway based on you arguments.

Why not? Consider the two brackets above: the first can increase while the second decreases proportionally, yielding the same sum, yes?

[Ludovic]

@Beechnut

Well sort of correct. If 1998 is a year left to an excercise for the reader, then every year is also. The anomolies between land-ocean, lower troposphere, etc. every year are just as variable.

Hmmm. Are you disagreeing that there is long-term upward trend in 5-year average temperature that rarely, if ever, goes down?

[Beechnut]

@SentientMeat

but less heat flows into the ocean depths.

Then the land-ocean temperatures for 1998 should have been “high?” See graph … they weren’t.

[Beechnut]

@Ludovic

Hmmm. Are you disagreeing that there is long-term upward trend in 5-year average temperature that rarely, if ever, goes down?

I am saying that there has been NO global warming over the past 8 years, 96 months. All the while CO2 is supposedly going up and while we are consuming more fossil fuels. Do you have any proof there has been ANY global warming in the last 8 years?

[SentientMeat]

@Beechnut

Then the land-ocean temperatures for 1998 should have been “high?” See graph … they weren’t.

This graph? They look pretty high to me. Indeed, they don’t get that high again for 4 whole years. In any case, does the land-ocean temperature include the heat dumped into the atmosphere in an El Nino year? Tht’s where a great deal of heat flows to instead of the ocean depths.

[SentientMeat]

I am saying that there has been NO global warming over the past 8 years, 96 months.

Then, surely, you blame the enormous 1998 warming on greenhouse gas emissions too, right?

[Beechnut]

@SentientMeat

This graph? They look pretty high to me. Indeed, they don’t get that high again for 4 whole years. In any case, does the land-ocean temperature include the heat dumped into the atmosphere in an El Nino year? Tht’s where a great deal of heat flows to instead of the ocean depths.

1998 looked high in that graph? Also, notice they haven’t gone up since 1998, just like the lower troposphere tempertures haven’t either.

[Beechnut]

@SentientMeat

Then, surely, you blame the enormous 1998 warming on greenhouse gas emissions too, right?

How can that be? CO2 is higher today than in 1998?

[Duke_of_Rat]

@Beechnut

How can that be? CO2 is higher today than in 1998?

I guess you missed post #56. There is at least one explanation put forth there (about how even though greenhouse gasses are in higher concentrations now, the temperature increase isn’t as great as might be expected).

[Beechnut]

@Duke of Rat

I guess you missed post #56. There is at least one explanation put forth there (about how even though greenhouse gasses are in higher concentrations now, the temperature increase isn’t as great as might be expected).

No, I saw that and didn’t respond. Some might have thought I was arguing that concept which is not necessary to the OP. In fact, there was a research article a while back that CO2 actually retarded global warming.

[DMC]

@tomndebb

You continue to use 1998 as a base line and you continue to look at very short periods to identify trending.

Oddly enough, it’s actually 50 degrees warmer now than it was just 3 months ago. This proves that Global Warming is not only real, but also that it’s going to be over 150 degrees by December. A year from now, we’ll boil water in the shade of a tree.

[scr4]

@Beechnut

In fact, there was a research article a while back that CO2 actually retarded global warming.

Cite?

[scr4]

@Beechnut

R^2 = 0.0028 … random, no trend …

X Coefficient 0.0034, Std Err = 0.0262 … t ~ 0.1307 (no significance, random)

http://img424.imageshack.us/img424/6574/ux54pv.gif

I’m not sure I follow. What is the confidence interval for the rate of temperature increase?

[SentientMeat]

@Beechnut

1998 looked high in that graph?

Yes - the January '98 peak is barely topped at all in the next 8 years. And the fundamental point you are so intellectually dishonestly evading is that if you weren’t to statistically incompetently start the graph at 1998 but take it back a few years, decades or centuries, you’d see that 1998 looks monumentally high.

Also, notice they haven’t gone up since 1998, just like the lower troposphere tempertures haven’t either.

Not specifically compared to 1998, no, but to compare so would be statistically incompetent and intellectually dishonest. Why not instead compare to 1999, or 1997, or … wait, I have an idea … average trands over many years? You know, like honest, competent statiscticians do.

How can that be? CO2 is higher today than in 1998?

Yes, it is 18 ppm higher today, but there is no major El Nino today (and, even more worryingly, 2005 rivalled 1998 despite no El Nino). Are you even listening any more?

[SentientMeat]

And, Beechnut, here’s a brief article which states that 2005 looks like it was even higher than 1998. If so, there’s your global warming even in the absurdly specific 8 year period (rather than, say, 7, 9, 20 or 200 years) you’re misleadingly focussing on.

What’s your explanation for the enormous difference between 1997 and 1998? Or the shape of this graph I’ve already shown you?

[black_rabbit]

@DMC

Oddly enough, it’s actually 50 degrees warmer now than it was just 3 months ago. This proves that Global Warming is not only real, but also that it’s going to be over 150 degrees by December. A year from now, we’ll boil water in the shade of a tree.

December? Hell, it was 50 when I got in the car this morning, and it’s 73 right now. At this rate, we’ll burn to death before Leno’s over.