# Global warming "tipping point" - why I think we're inevitably gonna go over it... **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 17, 2008, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-tipping-point-why-i-think-were-inevitably-gonna-go-over-it/473079 "2008-11-17T02:48:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 6\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2008, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-tipping-point-why-i-think-were-inevitably-gonna-go-over-it/473079/101 "2008-11-22T03:49:51Z")
> [@Chief Pedant](#): > > I am confident that in 10 years or so AGW will be Last Year’s Hysteria Climate change “skeptics” have been saying that for the past 15-20 years, and it hasn’t happened. For instance, here’s the economist and popular pundit Julian Simon, [writing in 1994:](http://www.juliansimon.org/writings/Ultimate_Resource/TCHAR18.txt) > [@](#): > > Given the history of such environmental scares - over all of human history - my > guess is that global warming is likely to be simply another transient concern, barely > worthy of consideration ten years from now should I then be writing again of these > issues. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was established twenty years ago, in 1988, and scientists since then have been amassing more and more evidence in favor of the anthropogenic climate change hypothesis. That’s quite a while to keep waiting for a judgement of “Last Year’s Hysteria”. Self-described “skeptics”, look back and consider: How many years have you been declaring that the global warming issue is just a passing fad? How many years are you prepared to keep saying it? How much scientific consensus would it take to convince you otherwise? Like I said, real skepticism begins at home. People who place more confidence in their own instinctive “bullshit detection” abilities than in actual scientific research (which they are not even qualified to evaluate) are not very convincing in the role of self-proclaimed hard-headed skeptics. ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2008, 7:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-tipping-point-why-i-think-were-inevitably-gonna-go-over-it/473079/102 "2008-11-22T07:54:24Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > You didn’t happen to notice the high food prices last time you were at the grocery store, did you? Actually no, since my spouse does the grocery shopping. But I will accept that food has gotten more expensive recently. However, I highly doubt it’s a result of CO2 emissions. Let’s assume for the sake of this point that CO2 is the main driver of global surface temparatures. [here is a graph](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/02/uah-monthly-anomaly.png) of historical temperatures. Here are some graphs of historical corn prices, based on a google image search I did: [http://farmpolicy.typepad.com/farmpolicy/files/corn\_nass\_jan.jpg](http://farmpolicy.typepad.com/farmpolicy/files/corn_nass_jan.jpg) [http://www.heritage.org/Research/EnergyandEnvironment/images/EC\_7\_lg.gif](http://www.heritage.org/Research/EnergyandEnvironment/images/EC_7_lg.gif) Here is a graph of historical beef prices, again based on a google image search: [http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/graphs/Meat%20Demand/Beef%20Demand/Historical%20Beef%20Price/histbeefpr\_files/MonHogSup\_12934\_image002.gif](http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/graphs/Meat%20Demand/Beef%20Demand/Historical%20Beef%20Price/histbeefpr_files/MonHogSup_12934_image002.gif) You don’t have to put these graphs to any sort of statistical analysis to see that there’s no (obvious) relationship. So basically I call BS on your claim. > [@](#): > > Yes to all. If any set of people, no matter how large or small, reduces their carbon emissions, that will delay, by at least some finite amount, the time when cumulative carbon emissions are enough to put us over the tipping point. If Americans buckle down and reduce our carbon emissions by 10 or 15% (which is itself probably a fantasy), it will be a matter of months, and perhaps a year or so, before CO2 emissions growth in the rest of the world catches us up to where it would have been had the cut not been made. My intuition is that the effect on CO2 levels would not even be measurable, i.e. it would be well within the error range of our detection equipment. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2008, 8:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-tipping-point-why-i-think-were-inevitably-gonna-go-over-it/473079/103 "2008-11-22T08:09:02Z")
Corn is subsidized. ---
**Author:** ![jackdavinci](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackdavinci/32/3259_2.png) [@jackdavinci](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jackdavinci)\ **Post date:** [November 22, 2008, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-tipping-point-why-i-think-were-inevitably-gonna-go-over-it/473079/104 "2008-11-22T22:46:55Z")
I think the main reason is that people prefer global warming to the threat of the next ice age. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2008, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-tipping-point-why-i-think-were-inevitably-gonna-go-over-it/473079/105 "2008-11-30T23:13:10Z")
I hate to bump this, but I _think_ it’s within the reasonable time frame (it’s only on page 2 of the forum, at any rate), and I think this link I came across would do a lot to back up my OP (and is not substantial enough to warrant a new OP). [More reason why I think I’m right.](http://www.canada.com/windsorstar/news/story.html?id=f0a1687c-decd-4c72-9d0e-7e6dd92d4ebe) ---
**Author:** ![brazil84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/8491ac/32.png) [@brazil84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brazil84)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2008, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-tipping-point-why-i-think-were-inevitably-gonna-go-over-it/473079/106 "2008-12-01T01:45:40Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > I hate to bump this, but I _think_ it’s within the reasonable time frame (it’s only on page 2 of the forum, at any rate), and I think this link I came across would do a lot to back up my OP (and is not substantial enough to warrant a new OP). > > [More reason why I think I’m right.](http://www.canada.com/windsorstar/news/story.html?id=f0a1687c-decd-4c72-9d0e-7e6dd92d4ebe) Honestly, I think you need to define what you mean by “tipping point” with some precision. To me, the phrase “tipping point” connotes runaway positive feedback. But I don’t think that’s what you mean here. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/global-warming-tipping-point-why-i-think-were-inevitably-gonna-go-over-it/473079.md?page=5)