# God and hindsight bias **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 7, 2010, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/god-and-hindsight-bias/535292 "2010-04-07T16:48:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![curious\_mind\_1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/5e9695/32.png) [@curious\_mind\_1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/curious_mind_1)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2010, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/god-and-hindsight-bias/535292/1 "2010-04-07T16:48:12Z")
Do you find that christians and other god believers have hindsight bias when they think of answered prayers? For example, a person would say, “Now that I think about it, God wanted me to quit the job and these are the reasons why.” Another thing that bothers me is the self centered outlook people have about God related consequences For example, A person’s friend is killed in an accident. So that person thinks, “God is testing my faith.” What about the friend that died? What was God ‘testing’ him for? Does everything revolve around that person being tested? Where could I find information about that phenomenon of viewing all consequences from a self centered point of view? ---
**Author:** ![ivan\_astikov](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/58f4c7/32.png) [@ivan\_astikov](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivan_astikov)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2010, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/god-and-hindsight-bias/535292/2 "2010-04-07T16:53:55Z")
It always makes me laugh when an athlete assigns their success to god. Quite obviously, god has favourites when he is watching sporting events. And the best thing about being omnipresent is he can watch more than one contest at a time. ---
**Author:** ![ITR\_champion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c67d28/32.png) [@ITR\_champion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ITR_champion)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2010, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/god-and-hindsight-bias/535292/3 "2010-04-07T17:13:10Z")
To me it makes a great deal of sense to ascribe positive occurrences to God while not seeing an instance of divine intervention in comparable negative occurrences. It’s no different from how I view my relationship with human beings. For example, when I was in graduate school and read a lengthy proof in algebraic topology and did understand the proof, I ascribed my success to the math professors who had taught me all the math I knew. But when I encountered a complicated proof that I didn’t understand, I would not blame my incomprehension on some failure on the part of those professors. Maybe I was guilty of hindsight bias, but I don’t really care. I also think that it’s quite reasonable for athletes to give thanks to God for a win. Without God there wouldn’t be any universe, any human race, or any athletic contest at all, so therefore God does play a vital role in any win. It’s really not different logic than thanking someone who sponsored your team. If you lose, you don’t start complaining that the sponsor is responsible for your loss. ---
**Author:** ![Hampshire](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hampshire/32/4887_2.png) [@Hampshire](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hampshire)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2010, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/god-and-hindsight-bias/535292/4 "2010-04-07T17:35:52Z")
I see a lot of God apologists that see god as controlling everything and have one of three explanations for everything: 1. Something good happens = praise god and thank you 2. Something bad happens = well here are some good things that came about becuase of it 3. Something bad happens and nothing good comes out of it = god works in mysterious ways in which we aren’t meant to understand The guy can’t lose. ---
**Author:** ![hotflungwok](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/edb3f5/32.png) [@hotflungwok](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hotflungwok)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2010, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/god-and-hindsight-bias/535292/5 "2010-04-07T19:12:22Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > To me it makes a great deal of sense to ascribe positive occurrences to God while not seeing an instance of divine intervention in comparable negative occurrences. It’s no different from how I view my relationship with human beings. For example, when I was in graduate school and read a lengthy proof in algebraic topology and did understand the proof, I ascribed my success to the math professors who had taught me all the math I knew. But when I encountered a complicated proof that I didn’t understand, I would not blame my incomprehension on some failure on the part of those professors. Maybe I was guilty of hindsight bias, but I don’t really care. But in that example you’re talking about an obvious cause & effect. When there’s a tornado and one guy survives and everyone is killed horribly, people thank god he survived, but no one curses god for having caused the tornado in the first place. No one can demonstrate that god anything to do with the tornado, and yet they’re giving him praise for the good things, and not finding fault with the bad things. Your professor actually could have taught you incorrectly and made it harder for you to understand something, at which point it would be appropriate to criticize him. So if god, as you claim, is responsible for everything in the universe, he is responsible for the tornado that killed all those people, so why isn’t criticism in order in that case? > [@](#): > > I also think that it’s quite reasonable for athletes to give thanks to God for a win. Without God there wouldn’t be any universe, any human race, or any athletic contest at all, so therefore God does play a vital role in any win. It’s really not different logic than thanking someone who sponsored your team. If you lose, you don’t start complaining that the sponsor is responsible for your loss. Of course it’s different from thanking your sponsor. Your sponsor had an actual demonstrable effect on the proceedings. God, as far as we can prove, did not. ---
**Author:** ![begbert2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/begbert2/32/3357_2.png) [@begbert2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/begbert2)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2010, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/god-and-hindsight-bias/535292/6 "2010-04-07T21:46:41Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > I also think that it’s quite reasonable for athletes to give thanks to God for a win. Without God there wouldn’t be any universe, any human race, or any athletic contest at all, so therefore God does play a vital role in any win. It’s really not different logic than thanking someone who sponsored your team. If you lose, you don’t start complaining that the sponsor is responsible for your loss. The universe, human race, and athletic contest are equally to blame for the loss. Can’t you come up with _anything_ God did that isn’t equally responsible for the loser’s loss? The problem isn’t that they’re crediting god for the good - though that’s invariably a result of sloppy thinking and stealing credit. The _problem_ is that they have a double standard. If I can be blamed for my failures, why can’t I be credited for my wins? ---
**Author:** ![panache45](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/panache45/32/64_2.png) [@panache45](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/panache45)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2010, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/god-and-hindsight-bias/535292/7 "2010-04-07T22:22:00Z")
I love it when a natural disaster occurs, devastating a city, and the handful of survivors give God credit for sparing them. Who do they think caused the disaster in the first place? ---
**Author:** ![Frylock](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/ce7236/32.png) [@Frylock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frylock)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2010, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/god-and-hindsight-bias/535292/8 "2010-04-08T00:05:39Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > To me it makes a great deal of sense to ascribe positive occurrences to God while not seeing an instance of divine intervention in comparable negative occurrences. It’s no different from how I view my relationship with human beings. For example, when I was in graduate school and read a lengthy proof in algebraic topology and did understand the proof, I ascribed my success to the math professors who had taught me all the math I knew. But when I encountered a complicated proof that I didn’t understand, I would not blame my incomprehension on some failure on the part of those professors. Maybe I was guilty of hindsight bias, but I don’t really care. This could make sense out of the practice of praising god for one’s own successes and blaming oneself for one’s own failures. But it doesn’t address the practice in question in the thread–that of praising God for one’s own fortunes, and not blaming God for one’s own misfortunes. > [@](#): > > I also think that it’s quite reasonable for athletes to give thanks to God for a win. Without God there wouldn’t be any universe, any human race, or any athletic contest at all, so therefore God does play a vital role in any win. If that is their basis for praise, then they will also publicly and joyfully praise God for their _losses_ as well. But they don’t. So it is not their basis. Perhaps it is arguable that it _should_ be their basis. But it manifestly is not. ---
**Author:** ![kanicbird](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/5f8ce5/32.png) [@kanicbird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kanicbird)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2010, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/god-and-hindsight-bias/535292/9 "2010-04-08T00:51:58Z")
> [@curious\_mind](#): > > Do you find that christians and other god believers have hindsight bias when they think of answered prayers? > > For example, a person would say, “Now that I think about it, God wanted me to quit the job and these are the reasons why.” > > Another thing that bothers me is the self centered outlook people have about God related consequences > For example, A person’s friend is killed in an accident. So that person thinks, “God is testing my faith.” > What about the friend that died? What was God ‘testing’ him for? > Does everything revolve around that person being tested? > Where could I find information about that phenomenon of viewing all consequences from a self centered point of view? God works on all levels, and can test you and others at the same time by the same event. One way I heard this is God does not waste time. Additionally, hindsight revelation is a promise of God, that you will see why He did certain things. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2010, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/god-and-hindsight-bias/535292/10 "2010-04-08T02:55:27Z")
> [@kanicbird](#): > > God works on all levels, and can test you and others at the same time by the same event. One way I heard this is God does not waste time. > > Additionally, hindsight revelation is a promise of God, that you will see why He did certain things. aka postdiction and/or confirmation bias. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2010, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/god-and-hindsight-bias/535292/11 "2010-04-08T02:59:47Z")
> [@Hampshire](#): > > The guy can’t lose. That’s why he’s god. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2010, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/god-and-hindsight-bias/535292/12 "2010-04-08T04:18:47Z")
> [@curious\_mind](#): > > For example, A person’s friend is killed in an accident. So that person thinks, “God is testing my faith.” > What about the friend that died? What was God ‘testing’ him for? Reflexes, probably. He failed. ---
**Author:** ![Askance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/askance/32/8281_2.png) [@Askance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Askance)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2010, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/god-and-hindsight-bias/535292/13 "2010-04-08T05:42:13Z")
> [@kanicbird](#): > > God works on all levels, and can test you and others at the same time by the same event. You didn’t answer the part about why the person killed was being “tested”, or alternatively why it’s OK for God to kill one person to “test” another. > [@](#): > > One way I heard this is God does not waste time. God can run short of time? And so is clearly not omnipotent? I’m surprised to hear that from you. ---
**Author:** ![ivan\_astikov](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/58f4c7/32.png) [@ivan\_astikov](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivan_astikov)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2010, 9:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/god-and-hindsight-bias/535292/14 "2010-04-08T09:04:56Z")
God has a reason for making **kanicbird** make that mistake. ---
**Author:** ![kanicbird](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/5f8ce5/32.png) [@kanicbird](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kanicbird)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2010, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/god-and-hindsight-bias/535292/15 "2010-04-08T12:08:19Z")
> [@Askance](#): > > You didn’t answer the part about why the person killed was being “tested”, or alternatively why it’s OK for God to kill one person to “test” another. We do not understand death as God does, for instance, once Adam and Eve eat of the fruit they died that day, yet we see them live on. IMHO That person lives on in their death, just in a crueler world, unless saved by Jesus, where they will basically relive their life choices but things will not be as pleasant, so they can learn from their mistakes and turn to God. In short that person needed to die to move on, to eventually come to God. ---
**Author:** ![Thudlow\_Boink](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thudlow_boink/32/320_2.png) [@Thudlow\_Boink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thudlow_Boink)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2010, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/god-and-hindsight-bias/535292/16 "2010-04-08T15:39:09Z")
> [@curious\_mind](#): > > Another thing that bothers me is the self centered outlook people have about God related consequences > For example, A person’s friend is killed in an accident. So that person thinks, “God is testing my faith.” > What about the friend that died? What was God ‘testing’ him for? > Does everything revolve around that person being tested? > Where could I find information about that phenomenon of viewing all consequences from a self centered point of view? Solipsism? It’s not only religious people who sometimes get the “it’s all about me” attitude, but maybe there’s something particularly egregious in thinking that God arranges things strictly for my benefit. [QUOTE=Weird Al Yankovic] I was driving down the highway when all the traffic slowed to a crawl There was a 12-car pile-up, everybody dead And I saw brains and guts and vital organs splattered everywhere As well as my friend Robert’s disembodied head And I thought - Poor Rob, I just had lunch with him Hey, wait a minute, he still owes me money . what a jerk Well, there’s five bucks that I’m never gonna see again Plus now, on top of everything else, it looks like I’m gonna be late to work Oh, why does this always happen… Why does this always happen to me? [/QUOTE] [“Why Does This Always Happen To Me?”](http://www.alsongs.com/index.cfm?view=alsong&songnumber=168) ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2010, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/god-and-hindsight-bias/535292/17 "2010-04-08T15:40:49Z")
> [@kanicbird](#): > > We do not understand death as God does, for instance, once Adam and Eve eat of the fruit they died that day, yet we see them live on. IMHO That person lives on in their death, just in a crueler world, unless saved by Jesus, where they will basically relive their life choices but things will not be as pleasant, so they can learn from their mistakes and turn to God. > > In short that person needed to die to move on, to eventually come to God. Who are _you_, to explain God’s motives? ---
**Author:** ![CurtC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ce73a5/32.png) [@CurtC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CurtC)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2010, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/god-and-hindsight-bias/535292/18 "2010-04-08T16:03:57Z")
> [@ivan\_astikov](#): > > It always makes me laugh when an athlete assigns their success to god. Lately I’ve been watching a lot of UFC fighting. I’m always amazed when they interview the winner right after a fight, a guy who’s just beaten his opponent to a bloody pulp, at how many of these guys will say something like “I just want to give the glory to Jesus” or something similar. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2010, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/god-and-hindsight-bias/535292/19 "2010-04-08T16:08:03Z")
The answer to the OP is of course that many theists define god to be omnibenevolent so whenever god does something that may look wicked (e.g. the Old Testament), well…you aren’t looking at it the right way. Things like praising god for the only person who wasn’t killed in a disaster flow from this combined with other, more ubiquitous, human biases. It’s interesting this omnibenevolent thing. Looks fairly recent on the religious scene. Polytheists seem happy to have a multitude of morally flawed gods. Early monotheists were happy with a vengeful, jealous god. But modern monotheists usually insist that their god is perfect, even where that perfection leads to contradictions like omnipotency vs omniclairvoyance or the POE. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [April 8, 2010, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/god-and-hindsight-bias/535292/20 "2010-04-08T17:19:21Z")
When I was a believer I found it odd, and now find it even odder, that people don’t hold God to the same standards they hold the average human. I’m not expected to read your mind, but I’m expected to read God’s mind. You are responsible for the bad results of your actions, but God isn’t responsible for bad results of his. For you, the ends don’t justify the means, but for God that’s absolutely acceptable. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/god-and-hindsight-bias/535292.md?page=2)