[QUOTE=beergeek279]
I’m just asking why, other than conference affiliation, that WVU is automatically going in as an underdog against the best team (statistics and matchups would be nice here)
I admit that the biggest weakness the team has is pass defense, with a very young secondary and a pass rush that, until recently, was lacking. The 3-3-5 stack defense is also very strong against running.
But WVU also has the #1 rushing attack in Division 1, and the best backfield trio (including the highly underrated beast Owen Schmitt at fullback) out there. From a game that doesn’t reach 150 yards passing, they also manage to continuously put up 40 points a game, even against the best teams, thanks to the spread offense.
I just don’t see why they’re automatically chumps.
Incidentally, that’s a bit unfair to describe them as mediocre because they’ve barely covered when most of their spreads have been above 21 points. I wouldn’t bet on a 21-point spread…much too dangerous.
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Forty points a game against the best teams? I don’t consider Maryland, Syracuse, and Mississippi State to be the best teams. And they struggled to put up 40 in those games, so I’m pretty sure they couldn’t do it against an elite team. WV had trouble putting the game away against each of those teams, and their defense allowed meaningful touchdowns. I don’t really like judging a team by how bad they beat crappy teams, but that’s my only option with them at this point.
Say WV were to play at Florida. I think the Gators would be 7.5 point favorites. We have a superb rushing defense, quite possibly the best in the nation. Only one rushing touchdown allowed all year. WV has a fantastic rushing game, but they won’t even come close to their productivity against the bad teams they’ve played so far. I would be surprised if they could score 14 points against Florida. And they would get similar results against other top tier teams like Michigan, Texas and Ohio State.
The Mountaineers certainly aren’t “chumps.” They’re just ranked higher than they should be because they haven’t had to play any tough games. The polls don’t seem to realize that a 6-1 team can be better than a 7-0 team. Look at the computer rankings used in the BCS. Computer polls are, of course, not perfect, but they don’t sort their rankings by number of losses like the human polls seem to do. WV is 14th in computer average. Are the computers SEC homers, or do they have some measure of objectivity?