# Gold prospects - what are the price targets? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [June 27, 2016, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gold-prospects-what-are-the-price-targets/758524 "2016-06-27T15:30:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 10\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [July 1, 2016, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gold-prospects-what-are-the-price-targets/758524/61 "2016-07-01T21:01:44Z")
> [@ftg](#): > > You mean a $50 dollar bill becomes a $49 bill due to being under a mattress? In real-value terms, yes. What are you talking about? ---
**Author:** ![ftg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ftg/32/2801_2.png) [@ftg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ftg)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2016, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gold-prospects-what-are-the-price-targets/758524/62 "2016-07-02T12:45:00Z")
> [@Peremensoe](#): > > In real-value terms, yes. What are you talking about? Um, reality. A $50 bill still says “$50” on it. How could anyone possibly misinterpret an analogy so badly??? ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2016, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gold-prospects-what-are-the-price-targets/758524/63 "2016-07-02T14:24:40Z")
> [@ftg](#): > > Um, reality. A $50 bill still says “$50” on it. How could anyone possibly misinterpret an analogy so badly??? Do you know what inflation is? ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2016, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gold-prospects-what-are-the-price-targets/758524/64 "2016-07-02T14:43:06Z")
> [@Peremensoe](#): > > No. Do you need a cite for the general susceptibility of currencies to inflation over more significant spans? No. Do you need a cite for the proper use of language and logic? A cite that the following syllogism is flawed: \*Some pigs are green; Therefore all pigs are green. \* Look, I’m happy to stipulate that your underlying point, if it can be discerned, is not wholly wrong. Can you stipulate that you managed to phrase the point in a way that was blatantly false, and therefore, at best, confusing? ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [July 2, 2016, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gold-prospects-what-are-the-price-targets/758524/65 "2016-07-02T17:42:22Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Look, I’m happy to stipulate that your underlying point, if it can be discerned, is not wholly wrong. Can you stipulate that you managed to phrase the point in a way that was blatantly false, and therefore, at best, confusing? My exact phrasing was, > [@Peremensoe](#): > > Money under the mattress doesn’t maintain the same value. I maintain that this is not only not “blatantly false,” it is broadly and generally true, across various currencies and societies. There are some occasional specific, short-term exceptions. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2016, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gold-prospects-what-are-the-price-targets/758524/66 "2016-07-03T14:50:34Z")
@ **Peremensoe** - Gold purchased at the 1980 price peak did not recover its value for more than 20 years. That’s measured against dollars-under-the-mattress. Measured against a more realistic dollars-earning-interest, _that gold has never recovered its value._ And one can find historic examples of huge plunges in the price of gold; fund-invested U.S. dollars have never (yet!) undergone such a plunge. There is a glimmer of truth underlying your point. I, for one, would be far more worried about burglars than “not maintaining its value” if I had gold under my mattress. If I were richer or better organized I myself would have a largish chunk invested in gold as a hedge. But glimmers of truth aren’t enough. We can tolerate false posts when there’s a clearly correct intent. We can smile grimly at true posts which are misleading … But yours was false _and_ misleading. ---
**Author:** ![Bill\_Door](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@Bill\_Door](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bill_Door)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2016, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gold-prospects-what-are-the-price-targets/758524/67 "2016-07-03T16:55:32Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > (snip)If I were richer or better organized I myself would have a largish chunk invested in gold as a hedge. But glimmers of truth aren’t enough. We can tolerate false posts when there’s a clearly correct intent. We can smile grimly at true posts which are misleading … > > But yours was false _and_ misleading. **septimus** is spot on here, investing in gold has value only if you have enough money invested in income generating vehicles to afford to keep part of it on the sidelines. I do not, I need all of my money out there working for me. That’s what’s wrong with a lot of investment advice, what’s good practice for someone with $50k invested isn’t good practice for the guy with $500k and it isn’t good practice for the guy with $5 million. I get tired of someone with no more than two years salary invested telling me what Warren Buffet is doing. Warren Buffet’s behavior has no relevance to the average investor. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2016, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gold-prospects-what-are-the-price-targets/758524/68 "2016-07-03T17:21:14Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Measured against a more realistic dollars-earning-interest, _that gold has never recovered its value._ > …fund-invested U.S. dollars have never (yet!) undergone such a plunge. Good thing I never addressed interest-earning invested dollars of any kind. ---
**Author:** ![Peremensoe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ce7236/32.png) [@Peremensoe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peremensoe)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2016, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gold-prospects-what-are-the-price-targets/758524/69 "2016-07-03T17:28:27Z")
> [@Bill\_Door](#): > > **septimus** is spot on here, investing in gold has value only if you have enough money invested in income generating vehicles to afford to keep part of it on the sidelines. Again, my comment was not about investment. Just the comparison to currency “under the mattress.” Which I actually think everybody should have some of, but not because it holds value very well. I actually wouldn’t describe holding bullion as an “investment” at all, any more than holding currencies. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [July 3, 2016, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gold-prospects-what-are-the-price-targets/758524/70 "2016-07-03T20:08:27Z")
> [@](#): > > Good thing I never addressed interest-earning invested dollars of any kind. Sorry if you took my comment personally. Our goal here is to exchange ideas and ways of thinking. _When comparing gold with cash, it’s fair to compare with cash invested in interest-bearing notes or money market account_, and that should be the default assumption when “cash” is mentioned in a discussion of investment values. No one actually keeps significant sums as non-interest bearing notes under their mattress. (Admittedly there’s only small difference in today’s ultra-low interest environment.) Of course, for apples-to-apples you might posit that the gold is interest-earning if there is such a thing. 😕 (One Doper claimed gold earns interest!) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gold-prospects-what-are-the-price-targets/758524.md?page=3)