# GOP Activists to Romney: Why Aren't You Winning? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 16, 2012, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/634835 "2012-09-16T00:47:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/634835/41 "2012-09-17T00:59:52Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > That’s a Rasmussen poll. Apply the empirical 4-6 point correction factor for that and you get a tossup. > > BTW, how much did holding the GOP convention in Florida help them? > > [Electoral-vote.com](http://Electoral-vote.com) has done us all the favor of putting up a [No Rasmussen page](http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Sep16-noras.html) this time around. Unfortunately NC has hardly been polled by anyone else for a few weeks. That’s practically identical to the 538 page, which does count Rasmussen to some extent, so I guess it doesn’t much matter. The long and short of it, of course, is that one would have to be a fool or a huge partisan hack to believe ONE poll, or one pollster, has it right. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 1:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/634835/42 "2012-09-17T01:04:38Z")
> [@aldiboronti](#): > > Yeah, Romney is doing terribly. [Six points ahead](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2012_north_carolina_president) in North Carolina, the state in which Democrats just held their convention. Why, he may as well quit now. 538 has Romney winning NC by 3 points. In 2008 it was dead even. Bush won the state by 12-13% in 2000 and 2004. Either way, Obama doesn’t need NC. As long as he is ahead in FL, OH, VA and the southwest NC is just meaningless gravy. ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/634835/43 "2012-09-17T01:10:02Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > The long and short of it, of course, is that one would have to be a fool or a huge partisan hack to believe ONE poll, or one pollster, has it right. But Nate Silver is not really a pollster, but an interpreter of polls, so he can still be my god, right? ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/634835/44 "2012-09-17T01:40:41Z")
> [@aldiboronti](#): > > Yeah, Romney is doing terribly. [Six points ahead](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2012_north_carolina_president) in North Carolina, the state in which Democrats just held their convention. Why, he may as well quit now. That’s a Rassmussen poll. Moreover, North Carolina has been a Republican state ever since LBJ decided to sign the Civil Rights law into effect. 2008 was a perfect storm not likely to be replicated. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/634835/45 "2012-09-17T01:47:13Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > That’s a Rassmussen poll. You know, I’ve always wondered why people discount Rasmussen polls but accept other ones that Nate Silver ranks even lower than Rasmussen (at least according to the demi-god Nate Silver)? ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/634835/46 "2012-09-17T01:55:16Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > You know, I’ve always wondered why people discount Rasmussen polls but accept other ones that Nate Silver ranks even lower than Rasmussen (at least according to the demi-god Nate Silver)? Who said we do? Got any examples? ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/634835/47 "2012-09-17T01:58:36Z")
> [@Zakalwe](#): > > Who said we do? Got any examples? The Marist polls of Ohio, Virginia and Florida. ETA\> The weird thing is that Nate Silver’s analysis of Rasmussen is the only one I’ve seen which ranks it low. Other rankings tend to show it towards the top. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/634835/48 "2012-09-17T02:31:55Z")
> [@Morgyn](#): > > Three presidents came from Massachusetts: John Adams and his son, John Quincy Adams, both of who served only one terms apiece, and John Kennedy. > > Come to think of it, Kennedy didn’t even make it through one term. Obviously there’s a conspiracy to prevent \*any \*Massachusetts president from serving more than one term. Connect the dots, people! But Coolidge, former Governor of Massachusetts, served more than one term. Admittedly, born in New Hampshire … ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/634835/49 "2012-09-17T02:32:54Z")
[He cracked the code](http://www.theonion.com/articles/romney-just-saying-he-grew-up-poor-in-memphis-now,29571/) As for the statement that NC was a perfect storm in 2008, I don’t agree with that. NC has supposedly had the same thing VA had. Voter registration drives combined with emigration by professionals/liberals and moderates pushed away by the GOP. Even in 2012 Romney may only win by 3%, far less than the 12% Bush won in 2004. If trends continue NC should be a swing state again in 2016. ---
**Author:** ![etv78](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d78d45/32.png) [@etv78](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/etv78)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/634835/50 "2012-09-17T02:47:13Z")
Coolidge was born in Vermont. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/634835/51 "2012-09-17T03:16:43Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > [He cracked the code](http://www.theonion.com/articles/romney-just-saying-he-grew-up-poor-in-memphis-now,29571/) > > As for the statement that NC was a perfect storm in 2008, I don’t agree with that. NC has supposedly had the same thing VA had. Voter registration drives combined with emigration by professionals/liberals and moderates pushed away by the GOP. Even in 2012 Romney may only win by 3%, far less than the 12% Bush won in 2004. > > If trends continue NC should be a swing state again in 2016. By that thought Connecticut may very well be a swing state by 2016, too. (At least, if you extrapolate based on Nate Silver’s current topic.) ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/634835/52 "2012-09-17T04:34:13Z")
Take a look at [this one.](http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/16/us/politics/some-republicans-try-out-a-new-campaign-theme-bipartisanship.html?pagewanted) It appears that some Tea Party Republicans, one who prided themselves on not compromising, are now campaigning on being able to work with the Dems. > [@](#): > > Partisan obstreperousness, the force that propelled Congressional Republicans to widespread victory in 2010, is suddenly for many of them as out of style as monocles. In campaign advertisements, some lawmakers who once dug in against Democrats now promote the wonders of bipartisanship. And legislatively, Republicans in tough races are seeking to soften their edges by moderating their votes, tossing their teacups and otherwise projecting a conciliatory image to voters. I’m sensing flop sweat. You also don’t get lots of people on your side telling you to do things differently, and reports of infighting at hq, if you are winning. Don’t expect to see anyone in the media, right or left, saying Romney is a goner. But I can’t wait for the Newsweek article on this election - then we will find out what is really going on there. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/634835/53 "2012-09-17T04:39:27Z")
> [@Chefguy](#): > > I think Mr. Fischer is incorrect. Perhaps if they lose this one, the Republican Party will make a concerted effort to return to its conservative roots and forsake the radical element that has taken over. I have no problem with fiscal conservatism when it’s tempered with some common sense, but people like Ryan take things too far. Not likely. Remember, they wound up nominating a candidate who was relatively moderate in the last two elections. If you think the radicals are going to admit that one of their candidates would have been beaten worse you are dreaming. Romney started closer to true conservative roots than the rest of them, and got more radical by selling out for the nomination. They will eventually figure out that the radicals need to get behind one candidate, and that guy will get the nomination. When they lost to the level of Goldwater, maybe then they will get it. The demographics are staring them in the face - and they still ignore them still. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 5:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/634835/54 "2012-09-17T05:18:44Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > The Marist polls of Ohio, Virginia and Florida. > > ETA\> The weird thing is that Nate Silver’s analysis of Rasmussen is the only one I’ve seen which ranks it low. Other rankings tend to show it towards the top. Rasmussen was accurate in the mid-oughts, but has developed a significant Republican bias more recently. > [@](#): > > Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average. In just 12 cases, Rasmussen’s polls overestimated the margin for the Democrat by 3 or more points. But it did so for the Republican candidate in 55 cases — that is, in more than half of the polls that it issued. > > If one focused solely on the final poll issued by Rasmussen Reports or Pulse Opinion Research in each state — rather than including all polls within the three-week interval — it would not have made much difference. Their average error would be 5.7 points rather than 5.8, and their average bias 3.8 points rather than 3.9. > > Nor did it make much difference whether the polls were branded as Rasmussen Reports surveys, or instead, were commissioned for Fox News by its subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research. (Both sets of surveys used an essentially identical methodology.) Polls branded as Rasmussen Reports missed by an average of 5.9 points and had a 3.9 point bias. The polls it commissioned on behalf of Fox News had a 5.1 point error, and a 3.6 point bias. I don’t know how you can call the Marist polls biased when the election hasn’t occurred yet, but I agree that analysis shows Marist to be one of the less accurate polls, but in a decidedly Republican direction. > [@](#): > > Other polling firms that joined Rasmussen toward the bottom of the chart were Marist College, whose polls also had a notable Republican bias, and CNN/Opinion Research, whose polls missed by almost 5 points on average. Their scores are less statistically meaningful than that for Rasmussen Reports, however, because they had only released surveys in 14 and 17 races, respectively, as compared to Rasmussen’s 105 polls. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/634835/55 "2012-09-17T05:45:22Z")
> [@etv78](#): > > Coolidge was born in Vermont. Oops - quite right. ---
**Author:** ![YogSothoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/8edcca/32.png) [@YogSothoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YogSothoth)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 7:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/634835/56 "2012-09-17T07:13:55Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > You know, I’ve always wondered why people discount Rasmussen polls but accept other ones that Nate Silver ranks even lower than Rasmussen (at least according to the demi-god Nate Silver)? You are going to be so cute after the election. That is, if you show your face around here ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 10:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/634835/57 "2012-09-17T10:54:03Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > The Marist polls of Ohio, Virginia and Florida. > > ETA\> The weird thing is that Nate Silver’s analysis of Rasmussen is the only one I’ve seen which ranks it low. Other rankings tend to show it towards the top. ? While he doesn’t normally rank Marist that low, Silver talks at length that he thinks they’re running high for Obama right now and actually _lowered_ Obama’s chances based on the Marist polls (among others). ---
**Author:** ![Cheesesteak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cheesesteak/32/3694_2.png) [@Cheesesteak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheesesteak)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 11:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/634835/58 "2012-09-17T11:47:56Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > I truly hope they’re as puzzled as Democrats who couldn’t understand why Bush won in '04. They’re going to lose for the same reason. “I’m not [incumbent]” only gets you so far when the country isn’t actually falling apart. As bad as things are now, the economy IS better than it was when Obama took office. Recovery is slower than you’d want it to be, but 4 years ago we were talking about Great Depression II, not a typical bump in the road. As crappy as the Iraq War was in 2004, the economy wasn’t terrible, people had jobs, and the war was semi-sanitized. You want to beat the incumbent, you have to convince people to vote for you because you’re awesome, or convince them the country is failing right now. Romney and Kerry did neither. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 11:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/634835/59 "2012-09-17T11:52:42Z")
> [@Cheesesteak](#): > > They’re going to lose for the same reason. > > “I’m not [incumbent]” only gets you so far when the country isn’t actually falling apart. It also probably doesn’t help that the Republicans have been making such a spectacle of being obstructionist. That’s going to deflect some of the blame that Obama would have otherwise have gotten for the economy and other problems. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 17, 2012, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/634835/60 "2012-09-17T13:33:26Z")
[Electoral-vote](http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Info/rasmussen.html) explains the reasons for the Rasmussen sampling bias that they refuse to adjust for. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/634835.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-activists-to-romney-why-arent-you-winning/634835.md?page=4)