# GOP decides to Ignore Primaries and Pick its Nominee **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 16, 2016, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-decides-to-ignore-primaries-and-pick-its-nominee/749179 "2016-03-16T17:45:14Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-decides-to-ignore-primaries-and-pick-its-nominee/749179/41 "2016-03-18T02:39:06Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > But if he falls even one short, then the rules say he’s not the nominee and the delegates vote for whoever they want. It’s more complicated than that. A lot of delegates are are arguably pledged to Trump, but their state legislature, at some point, deliberately declined to make it illegal to switch to someone else, even on the first ballot. Pennsylvania is a good example of a state where there is a primary, but the delegates can really do what they want, on the first ballot, if they have the conjoins. Then there’s the [Rule 40B](https://s3.amazonaws.com/prod-static-ngop-pbl/docs/Rules_of_the_Republican+Party_FINAL_S14090314.pdf) you must have read about by now. What if Trump only has a plurality of delegates, but is also the only candidate with the required delegate majority in eight states? By the rules, he then should win – if not on the first ballot, then later. Right now, I believe that Cruz only has a majority in four states, and there’s only 19 left that will select delegates. So, at this rate, the rules say that only Trump can be nominated, plurality or majority. First ballot, fiftieth ballot, only someone who initially had a majority of the “permanent” delegates, in eight states or territories, can be nominated, and there’s a fairly good chance that the Donald will be the only one. Can that rule change? If you say yes, why is that one changeable, and 1,237 is written in stone? ---
**Author:** ![Starving\_Artist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aeb1de/32.png) [@Starving\_Artist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Starving_Artist)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-decides-to-ignore-primaries-and-pick-its-nominee/749179/42 "2016-03-18T02:43:20Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I like open primaries, it gives extreme candidates a tougher time. The problem with Trump is that he actually is winning moderate voters, probably due to his Democratic past and fairly liberal positions on entitlements and federal spending in general. I also suspect that everyone knows he’s a liberal on the hot button social issues. > > But sure, a party can disqualify open primary state delegates, but it’s pretty skeezy to do it after the fact. On that I think we can agree. In general though I’ve always felt open primaries have the potential to do more harm than good. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-decides-to-ignore-primaries-and-pick-its-nominee/749179/43 "2016-03-18T02:45:39Z")
THe “8 state” rule doesn’t apply to who won state primaries and caucuses, it’s simply a threshold to get a candidate on the ballot at the convention. Let’s say Trump is the only one who won eight states or more. So technically, he’d be the only guy that could be voted for on the first ballot. So ballot 1 goes like this: 1150 for Trump, 1300 abstain. Since as you pointed out, some states bind their delegates for multiple ballots, they could even hold a second vote with only Trump. So ballot 2 goes: 500 Trump, 2000 abstain. My numbers aren’t exact, but you get the picture. Then we go to ballot 3, where as long as eight states are willing to put the same candidate into nomination, they can do so. This is where Paul Ryan could come up, especially if just before the convention the bigwigs have already successfully lobbied delegates to go that route. If Ryan’s name does come up on ballot 3, I don’t think there will be a ballot 4. ---
**Author:** ![Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de053/32.png) [@Jackknifed\_Juggernaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackknifed_Juggernaut)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-decides-to-ignore-primaries-and-pick-its-nominee/749179/44 "2016-03-18T02:52:53Z")
Will Trump win the majority of states? If so, I think it would be even more damaging to the party if they exclude Trump. Particularly when he’s been finishing 2nd in the states he loses. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-decides-to-ignore-primaries-and-pick-its-nominee/749179/45 "2016-03-18T02:58:06Z")
The rules are the rules, and the party can claim with justification that Trump is unacceptable to the majority of Republican voters. He is winning only because of a divided field. He’d lose one on one to virtually anyone. The other aspect you have to consider is that the most popular choice might not be someone running. We have no idea how many Republican voters are thinking, “I love Paul Ryan but he wasn’t running.” If the choice is Paul Ryan, that could very well excite the vast majority of Republican voters. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-decides-to-ignore-primaries-and-pick-its-nominee/749179/46 "2016-03-18T04:13:42Z")
I’m thinking back to 2008. I favored Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama. But Obama won by the rules that existed. And I would have been pissed if the Democratic party had decided to simply ignore the results and appointed Clinton as the nominee. And I imagine that’s nothing to the way Obama supporters would have felt. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-decides-to-ignore-primaries-and-pick-its-nominee/749179/47 "2016-03-18T04:22:23Z")
> [@Ambivalid](#): > > The idea of inserting a candidate in place of the clear leader in votes is puzzling to me. Trump doesn’t have a majority, true. But neither does anyone else. How is 40% of the vote **not** better (from an elect-ablility standpoint) than **0** %? Because that’s how many people would have voted for a candidate who was inserted at the last moment. > > Do the republicans hate/fear a Trump nomination that much that they’d be willing to sacrifice _any_ chance of a 2016 victory? I think the Republican party is locked in an endless cycle of self-delusion. They’ve convinced themselves that the voters love them (ignoring the fact that more people voted for the Democratic candidate in five of the last six presidential elections). So they fear that Trump isn’t a real Republican and he’s going to lose to Clinton. But if they can somehow push Trump out and slide a real Republican in, the nation will rejoice and vote for the real Republican. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-decides-to-ignore-primaries-and-pick-its-nominee/749179/48 "2016-03-18T04:47:10Z")
I don’t think we’re that delusional. The real problem isn’t Trump losing. Another Republican can do that just fine, although of course we hope for victory. The problem comes if Trump actually wins. That changes the GOP forever and gives conservatives no home. And that’s a pretty large group to not have a home. That’ll cause a serious realignment. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 4:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-decides-to-ignore-primaries-and-pick-its-nominee/749179/49 "2016-03-18T04:48:11Z")
> [@Starving\_Artist](#): > > But if open primaries are going to be allowed and there’s no way to know what percentage of voters are from the opposition party, then disallowal of an entire state’s delegates on that premise seems designed to do exactly what the RNC is apparently going to attempt to do, which is thwart the legal votership of the public in order to install a candidate of its own choosing. Think of it as voter ID writ large. If your state has an _x_ in the “open primaries” box on its ID card, its delegates can be disallowed, sorry. Now beat it, get outta here. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-decides-to-ignore-primaries-and-pick-its-nominee/749179/50 "2016-03-18T04:51:55Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I don’t think we’re that delusional. The real problem isn’t Trump losing. Another Republican can do that just fine, although of course we hope for victory. The problem comes if Trump actually wins. That changes the GOP forever and gives conservatives no home. And that’s a pretty large group to not have a home. That’ll cause a serious realignment. It’s a lovely bed they made. Perhaps they should lie in it. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 4:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-decides-to-ignore-primaries-and-pick-its-nominee/749179/51 "2016-03-18T04:52:51Z")
But that’s the spirit of democracy! Or it’s ghost, at any rate. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-decides-to-ignore-primaries-and-pick-its-nominee/749179/52 "2016-03-18T04:59:07Z")
lol, luci ---
**Author:** ![Sunny\_Daze](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sunny_daze/32/438_2.png) [@Sunny\_Daze](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sunny_Daze)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-decides-to-ignore-primaries-and-pick-its-nominee/749179/53 "2016-03-18T05:12:57Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > It’s a lovely bed they made. Perhaps they should lie in it. I just don’t want to lie in it with them! ---
**Author:** ![Alley\_Dweller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alley_dweller/32/430_2.png) [@Alley\_Dweller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alley_Dweller)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 8:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-decides-to-ignore-primaries-and-pick-its-nominee/749179/54 "2016-03-18T08:37:15Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Then we go to ballot 3, where as long as eight states are willing to put the same candidate into nomination, they can do so. This is where Paul Ryan could come up, especially if just before the convention the bigwigs have already successfully lobbied delegates to go that route. If Ryan’s name does come up on ballot 3, I don’t think there will be a ballot 4. The rules, as they stand right now, do not allow additional candidates to be put into nomination after the first ballot. I have no doubt that will be changed, but it is not an option now. Here is the actual [rule](https://s3.amazonaws.com/prod-static-ngop-pbl/docs/Rules_of_the_Republican+Party_FINAL_S14090314.pdf): > [@](#): > > RULE NO. 40 > Nominations > (a) In making the nominations for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States and voting > thereon, the roll of the states shall be called separately in each case; provided, however, that if there is only one candidate for > nomination for Vice President of the United States who has demonstrated the support required by paragraph (b) of this rule, a > motion to nominate for such office by acclamation shall be in order and no calling of the roll with respect to such office shall be > required. > (b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall > demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of > the name of that candidate for nomination. Notwithstanding any other provisions of these rules or any rule of the House of > Representatives, to demonstrate the support required of this paragraph a certificate evidencing the affirmative written support of > the required number of permanently seated delegates from each of the eight (8) or more states shall have been submitted to the > secretary of the convention not later than one (1) hour prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination pursuant to > this rule and the established order of business. > (c) The total time of the nominating speech and seconding speeches for any candidate for nomination for President of > the United States or Vice President of the United States shall not exceed fifteen (15) minutes. > (d) When at the close of a roll call any candidate for nomination for President of the United States or Vice President of > the United States has received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention, the chairman of the convention shall > announce the votes for each candidate whose name was presented in accordance with the provisions of paragraph (b) of this rule. > Before the convention adjourns sine die, the chairman of the convention shall declare the candidate nominated by the Republican > Party for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States. > (e) If no candidate shall have received such majority, the chairman of the convention shall direct the roll of the states be > called again and shall repeat the calling of the roll until a candidate shall have received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast > in the convention. First note that rule 40(a) says that if there is only one candidate with the required majority in 8 states, the roll need not be called and the candidate will be elected by acclamation. Note also rule 40(e). it says that if no candidate receives a majority, the chairman will call the roll again. It does not say that additional candidates will be nominated. If you want to say that rule 40(e) is not well thought out, I would agree with you. It can still be changed and the convention can vote to suspend the rules if it likes. But as it stands right now, if Trump is the only one to get the 8-state majority, he is the only one the convention can elect, barring a change to or suspension of the rules. By the way, Trump does have the 8-state majority right now. The Northern Mariana Islands put him over the top. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 8:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-decides-to-ignore-primaries-and-pick-its-nominee/749179/55 "2016-03-18T08:51:19Z")
The problem with that rule is that if the delegates just refuse to nominate someone then there’s an impasse. Since the party must have a nominee, and that nominee must win a majority of votes, a rule change in this case would be justified. Although the rule’s language is vague enough that the chair(Paul Ryan) could simply rule that new candidates can be nominated after the 2nd ballot, or he could hold a dozen with no winner just to show that the convention is trying to agree on someone but can’t. The intent of rule 40(b) is that a nominee must demonstrate the support of a majority of delegates in elected contests, but the text just says they must demonstrate the support of a majority of delegates. Once the delegates are unbound, they no longer have to support Trump. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 8:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-decides-to-ignore-primaries-and-pick-its-nominee/749179/56 "2016-03-18T08:53:03Z")
Another way they can avoid nominating Trump is to actually just nominate no one and then Paul Ryan runs as an “independent”, and the bulk of the GOP endorses him. ---
**Author:** ![Alley\_Dweller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alley_dweller/32/430_2.png) [@Alley\_Dweller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alley_Dweller)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 9:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-decides-to-ignore-primaries-and-pick-its-nominee/749179/57 "2016-03-18T09:06:51Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The problem with that rule is that if the delegates just refuse to nominate someone then there’s an impasse. Since the party must have a nominee, and that nominee must win a majority of votes, a rule change in this case would be justified. Although the rule’s language is vague enough that the chair(Paul Ryan) could simply rule that new candidates can be nominated after the 2nd ballot, or he could hold a dozen with no winner just to show that the convention is trying to agree on someone but can’t. > > The intent of rule 40(b) is that a nominee must demonstrate the support of a majority of delegates in elected contests, but the text just says they must demonstrate the support of a majority of delegates. Once the delegates are unbound, they no longer have to support Trump. I agree that the rule has many logical flaws to it. But it’s the rule. (And I think it probably will be changed.) The Romney campaign wrote it so that when he ran for re-election in 2016 there would be no dissension or opposition on the convention floor. Note that rule 40(a) does not require a majority of the delegates to vote for Trump if he is the only candidate eligible under rule 40(b). If there is only one candidate eligible, then the roll call can be skipped. Of course, the convention chair can pretend that he did not hear a motion to skip the roll call. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 11:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-decides-to-ignore-primaries-and-pick-its-nominee/749179/58 "2016-03-18T11:15:45Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > All the GOP has to say is, “Look: Democrats fall in love. Republicans fall in line. Did you really believe that the nation’s job creators would leave the choice of the next GOP nominee to you? Give me a break. Our job is to promise an end to abortion in this country and to mock [Matthew 6:5](https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew%206:5-15). Your job is press the voting lever next to the letter R. It’s not hard. Once in office we can pile on tax cuts for our fatcat friends and nibble away at [del]social security and medicare[/del] entitlements. We’ve played bait and switch for decades now and if you don’t like it, we’ve got [a lecture on personal responsibility for you](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=787219).” > > “So shut up, get in line, and stop your yammering.” “You had ONE job!” ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-decides-to-ignore-primaries-and-pick-its-nominee/749179/59 "2016-03-18T12:58:38Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > They can just change the rules, like they did in 2012 to deny delegates to Ron Paul. They had a voice vote which was impossible to tell the ayes or noes, then declared the rule change passed. Boehner was even reading off a teleprompter, it already said “The ayes have it, the resolution is adopted.” Just to be sure, they even kept delegates who were against the resolution from getting to the convention center, by having the bus they were on drive by with out stopping. The fix was in. > > [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKaXqoC4DjE&feature=youtu.be&t=139](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKaXqoC4DjE&feature=youtu.be&t=139) If Kasich wins fewer than 8 primaries (seems like a good bet, at least for now), chances are you’d have both Trump _and_ Cruz being against a change to the rule. Good luck changing the rules over their combined opposition. At any rate, the problem with a brokered convention is that there’s no brokers anymore. On a second ballot, you’d have a couple thousand free agents, and total chaos. And unlike back in the pre-TV days, the shitshow would be on national TV, and display to the nation what’s been obvious for awhile to those of us who’ve been paying attention: the GOP is incapable of governing itself, let alone the country. Even low-information voters would get the message. The GOP insiders know this, and that is why they’ll fall in line behind Trump if he’s far and away in the lead come June 8, even if he’s short of 1237, and make sure he wins on the first ballot. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2016, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-decides-to-ignore-primaries-and-pick-its-nominee/749179/60 "2016-03-18T13:31:31Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > What’s your basis for your laughter? Yes, the GOP is a private entity (to some degree) but they made loud public demands that Trump agree to not run as a third Party if he loses. If they don’t make good on their end, to support him if he wins, is there no basis for reparations? Obviously it would depend on what the “shenanigans” were but I don’t think political parties are completely free from being litigated. Which specific laws would be broken? IOW, the burden of proof is on the accuser, not the accused. What charges could be brought against the GOP? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-decides-to-ignore-primaries-and-pick-its-nominee/749179.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-decides-to-ignore-primaries-and-pick-its-nominee/749179.md?page=4)