# GOP gained ground in middle-class communities in 2016 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 16, 2018, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-gained-ground-in-middle-class-communities-in-2016/818029 "2018-07-16T18:18:18Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2018, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-gained-ground-in-middle-class-communities-in-2016/818029/41 "2018-07-18T05:03:08Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Do you honestly think that any of that stuff you are throwing up against the wall will stick? I don’t mean here, I know you know it won’t here, but that any outside of the hard 30ish percent that is Trump’s floor in the “middle class” will buy that? > > Sorry but the GOP is the enemy of the middle class. When the Democrats win the middle class we can talk about that. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2018, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-gained-ground-in-middle-class-communities-in-2016/818029/42 "2018-07-18T05:07:07Z")
2016 Trump won voters between $50K-200K. Clinton won poor voters and the richest voters: [Exit Polls 2016](https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president) 2014 GOP won at all income levels $50K and above. They trailed by only four points among those making $30-50K. Democrats won only the poorest voters: [U.S. House results -- 2014 Election Center -- Elections and Politics from CNN.com](http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/race/house/#exit-polls) 2012 GOP won all voters above $50K: [Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com](http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/) ALthough I’d expect 2018 and 2020 to look bad for the GOP due to Trump’s awful performance, the trend will not be arrested without major course changes by the Democratic Party. The GOP will win middle class voters by even more in 2022 and 2024 once they get a taste of a Sanders/Warren-led party. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2018, 7:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-gained-ground-in-middle-class-communities-in-2016/818029/43 "2018-07-18T07:18:55Z")
Which GOP will bask in this triumph? The GOP that thinks about capital gains, or the GOP that thinks about Confederate flags? The GOP that likes deregulation and a robust climate for business, or the one that likes tiki torches and tough guys? The Establishment craves stability, its the Brawndo of business. Trump is as stable as a sack of rabid weasels. The social reactionaries demand recognition that all of this change was a bad idea, and we’ll just put it all back, starting with Roe, immigration, and so forth. Thus pissing off women, gays, blacks, latinos, and white men with good sense. Yessir! Nothing but blue skies and sunshine ahead! ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2018, 7:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-gained-ground-in-middle-class-communities-in-2016/818029/44 "2018-07-18T07:22:23Z")
I didn’t say all that. But either faction of the party is likely to win the middle class over what the Democrats are selling right now. I just hope it’s a saner party than exists now. What I didn’t expect was that there was a version of insanity that could actually save the Republicans from demographic disaster. Win 60% of the white vote+50% of 3rd generation Latinos+10% of black voters+40-50% of Asian voters=victory. They might win 65% of the white vote in 2022. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2018, 9:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-gained-ground-in-middle-class-communities-in-2016/818029/45 "2018-07-18T09:15:57Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > What I didn’t expect was that there was a version of insanity that could actually save the Republicans from demographic disaster. Win 60% of the white vote+50% of 3rd generation Latinos+10% of black voters+40-50% of Asian voters=victory. They might win 65% of the white vote in 2022. Wild guesses and random numbers are fun! 70%! 20%! 82.7%! Wheeeeeee! ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2018, 10:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-gained-ground-in-middle-class-communities-in-2016/818029/46 "2018-07-18T10:17:59Z")
Here’s a number from the sports world: 110% ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2018, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-gained-ground-in-middle-class-communities-in-2016/818029/47 "2018-07-18T12:33:08Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > 2016 Trump won voters between $50K-200K. Clinton won poor voters and the richest voters: [Exit Polls 2016](https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president) > > 2014 GOP won at all income levels $50K and above. They trailed by only four points among those making $30-50K. Democrats won only the poorest voters: [U.S. House results -- 2014 Election Center -- Elections and Politics from CNN.com](http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/race/house/#exit-polls) > > 2012 GOP won all voters above $50K: [Presidential Race - 2012 Election Center - Elections & Politics from CNN.com](http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/) > ALthough I’d expect 2018 and 2020 to look bad for the GOP due to Trump’s awful performance, the trend will not be arrested without major course changes by the Democratic Party. The GOP will win middle class voters by even more in 2022 and 2024 once they get a taste of a Sanders/Warren-led party. Thanks for the links. Interesting … the premise of this thread is the analysis that Clinton had done more poorly in middle class communities than Obama had (and in particular in must win states for any Democrat like PA, WI, and MI) but there is an interesting directionality in those exit polls. Obama in 2012 lost the $50 to 100K demographic by 6 points. Clinton actually did better than Obama did in '12, still losing it but by only 3. Makes one do a bit of a double take on the op’s premise don’t it? There are ways to square the GOP actually giving up ground with the middle class overall while doing better in defined “middle class communities”. Both can be true. But overall 2016 had Clinton doing _better_ in the middle class than Obama did. (Maybe just a result of demographic shifts into the middle class?) Anyway there is no question that a slight bit more than half of the middle class has, in the past, bought the spin that the GOP has been selling. I completely agree that Clinton could have and should have done a better job messaging in particular to the lower middle class white voters who have been been feeling economically insecure even as the economy overall recovered (and continues to do so) that they and their worries also matter. > [@](#): > > When the Democrats win the middle class we can talk about that. Or we can, as we are, talk about how the Democrats win the middle class, other than relying on the abject awfulness of the other side. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2018, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-gained-ground-in-middle-class-communities-in-2016/818029/48 "2018-07-18T16:04:41Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > They did. But they were so small that they don’t even perceive them. [A majority don’t think there is any more in their paychecks](https://www.newsweek.com/tax-plan-republicans-midterms-903206), in fact only 22% have noticed an increase. Now Trump wants to override what states charge for property taxes. Heard that on AP Radio News the other day. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2018, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-gained-ground-in-middle-class-communities-in-2016/818029/49 "2018-07-18T16:08:52Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > -When it’s pointed out to you that this quarterly rate can’t be compared to Obama’s annual rate, you claim “I’m talking annually,” even though you’d specifically used the word “quarter” in your previous post. I’m sure there’s some way to change a “would” to a “wouldn’t” and have it all make sense somehow. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2018, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-gained-ground-in-middle-class-communities-in-2016/818029/50 "2018-07-18T16:23:30Z")
> [@Skywatcher](#): > > Now Trump wants to override what states charge for property taxes. Heard that on AP Radio News the other day. Ah. I wasn’t quite recalling [the SALT thing](http://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/397407-states-challenge-federal-deductions-cap-on-state-and-local-taxes) correctly. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2018, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-gained-ground-in-middle-class-communities-in-2016/818029/51 "2018-07-19T02:06:08Z")
Funny the timing - today in the NYT an opinion piece: [“Why Real Wages Still Aren’t Rising”](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/18/opinion/wage-stagnation-unemployment-economic-growth.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-right-region®ion=opinion-c-col-right-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-right-region) > [@](#): > > The United States labor market is closing in on full employment in an economic expansion that just began its 10th year, and yet the real hourly wage for the working class has been essentially flat for two years running. Why is that? > > Economists ask this question every month when the government reports labor statistics. We repeatedly get solid job growth and lower unemployment, but not much to show for wages. Part of that has to do with inflation, productivity and remaining slack in the labor market. > > But stagnant wages for factory workers and non-managers in the service sector — together they represent 82 percent of the labor force — is mainly the outcome of a long power struggle that workers are losing … > > … While wages have failed to accelerate, consumer prices have climbed … Over the past year, for example, consumer price inflation was 2.9 percent, just about the same rate as hourly pay. Data released on Tuesday show that real weekly earnings for full-time, middle-wage workers hasn’t grown at all since early 2017. … ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2018, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-gained-ground-in-middle-class-communities-in-2016/818029/52 "2018-07-19T16:56:35Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Funny the timing - today in the NYT an opinion piece: [“Why Real Wages Still Aren’t Rising”](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/18/opinion/wage-stagnation-unemployment-economic-growth.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-right-region®ion=opinion-c-col-right-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-right-region) Okay, an opinion piece. I think the author is wrong to use a broad brush, we are seeing more raises and bonus now, thanks to a good economy. But suppose you are a middle-class person who has not seen a real wage increase. Wouldn’t you say this is why the middle class needed Trump’s tax cuts? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2018, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-gained-ground-in-middle-class-communities-in-2016/818029/53 "2018-07-19T17:04:21Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > Wouldn’t you say this is why the middle class needed Trump’s tax cuts? Why did wealthy people, who have seen wage increases, need a tax cut? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2018, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-gained-ground-in-middle-class-communities-in-2016/818029/54 "2018-07-19T17:05:05Z")
The Job Creators needed more motivation to create jobs. Or was that another administration’s explanation? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2018, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-gained-ground-in-middle-class-communities-in-2016/818029/55 "2018-07-19T17:17:55Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > The Job Creators needed more motivation to create jobs. > > Or was that another administration’s explanation? I think it is more like, if someone doesn’t have enough money, they need a tax cut; if they have too much money, they need a tax cut; and if they have the right amount of money, they need a tax cut. It’s called the “Tea Party Goldilocks” test. When faced with three bowls of porridge of varying temperatures, the proper thing to do is cut taxes. Three beds of varying firmness, cut taxes. Three levels of deficits, cut taxes. Pop quiz: if faced with three immigrants of varying levels of distress, what should be done? ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2018, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-gained-ground-in-middle-class-communities-in-2016/818029/56 "2018-07-19T17:20:58Z")
Depends, what countries are they from and how good looking are they? ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2018, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-gained-ground-in-middle-class-communities-in-2016/818029/57 "2018-07-19T18:55:47Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > Okay, an opinion piece. I think the author is wrong to use a broad brush, we are seeing more raises and bonus now, thanks to a good economy. > > But suppose you are a middle-class person who has not seen a real wage increase. Wouldn’t you say this is why the middle class needed Trump’s tax cuts? I am solidly middle-class, although a few years ago my kids were on Medicaid. Although I’ve received some raises recently, over the past ten years a Republican legislature has frozen my wages/rejiggered my pay scale in a way that’s cost me about $50,000, and that’s not even going into losses due to insurance increases. And hell no I don’t conclude we need a tax cut. Because I know that’s not free money. You can compensate for a tax cut in exactly three ways: 1. Raise taxes on someone else. 2. Cut programs. 3. Run a deficit. 4. If the middle class got a tax cut at the expense of the very wealthy, I could see my way to supporting it, depending on the details. But we know that’s not the option Republicans will go for. 5. The programs that are likely to be cut are things like environmental protections, education, help for the poor. I’ve got kids, and there’s no freakin’ way I want to cut environmental protections or education. I teach poor kids, and there’s no freakin’ way I want to cut their access to medical care or good nutrition or similar programs. So this doesn’t fly. Anyway, this isn’t the option Republicans go for. 6. This is, of course, the option Republicans are going for: a cheap sugar high now, to be paid for later. Paid for by my kids. And no, actually, I’m not thrilled by this idea. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2018, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-gained-ground-in-middle-class-communities-in-2016/818029/58 "2018-07-19T18:57:43Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > …we are seeing more raises and bonus now, thanks to a good economy. [In the past week](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/13/business/economy/wages-workers-profits.html)? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2018, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-gained-ground-in-middle-class-communities-in-2016/818029/59 "2018-07-20T02:57:21Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > Okay, an opinion piece. I think the author is wrong to use a broad brush, we are seeing more raises and bonus now, thanks to a good economy. > > But suppose you are a middle-class person who has not seen a real wage increase. Wouldn’t you say this is why the middle class needed Trump’s tax cuts? The opinion was the on the _why_ of real wages being flat. The lack of growth in real wages is a simple observation: overall, _no_ we are not seeing more raises and bonuses now, not that exceed the increases in costs, other than to those at the very top. They are getting them, yes we are seeing that. No, a major permanent tax cut for corporations, very significant tax cuts for the very wealthiest, and temporary tiny tax cuts for the middle class, all borrowing from the future and possibly resulting in the cutting of essential services, is not what the middle class needs. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2018, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-gained-ground-in-middle-class-communities-in-2016/818029/60 "2018-07-20T03:32:28Z")
Berke Breathed needs to bring back Major Bloom and his habit of hunting Nazis & Communists. MAGAbots would be the perfect target for the Major! “Fake News! Alternative Facts!” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-gained-ground-in-middle-class-communities-in-2016/818029.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-gained-ground-in-middle-class-communities-in-2016/818029.md?page=4)