# GOP still trending to win Senate **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2014, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426 "2014-08-13T10:52:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1 "2014-08-13T10:52:38Z")
> [@](#): > > The decision by Sen. John Walsh (D-Mont.) not to seek election in November in the wake of a plagiarism scandal is the latest piece of good news for Republicans as they strive to take control of the Senate in less than three months. > > Walsh’s departure from the race came in the same week that two Republican senators — Pat Roberts in Kansas and Lamar Alexander in Tennessee — defeated tea party challengers in primary fights, ensuring that every GOP senator seeking reelection would be the party’s nominee. Says the Washington Post. Does anyone here think that the Majority Leader in 2015 will still be Harry Reid? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 11:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/2 "2014-08-13T11:06:39Z")
According to Nate Silver, it looks like about 60/40 for the Republicans right now. So if I had to bet, I’d go with his prediction (no, **Bricker** , I’m not going to bet you!). But I’ll be hoping for something like a small Democratic wave that could keep the Senate in their hands. I’m still optimistic (though not expecting) that the Republicans will make another big mistake on the national stage. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 11:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/3 "2014-08-13T11:18:42Z")
Doesn’t look like it’s going to happen. First, all the candidates are experienced, second, Democrats are really just trying too hard to bring out the crazy and the GOP just isn’t taking the bait. Of course the Democrats can keep the Senate anyway, but that will happen because the Republicans drop a race or two they shouldn’t, not because of a national wave. As of today, they are +7, which is one more than they need. So they have to blow two where they currently have a tiny lead. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 11:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/4 "2014-08-13T11:53:52Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Doesn’t look like it’s going to happen. First, all the candidates are experienced, second, Democrats are really just trying too hard to bring out the crazy and the GOP just isn’t taking the bait. LOL. It might not happen, but many members of the GOP are taking the impeachment trolling seriously indeed. 🙂 > [@](#): > > Of course the Democrats can keep the Senate anyway, but that will happen because the Republicans drop a race or two they shouldn’t, not because of a national wave. As of today, they are +7, which is one more than they need. So they have to blow two where they currently have a tiny lead. _Probably_ not because of a national wave. But one can hope. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 1:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/5 "2014-08-13T13:43:58Z")
Weren’t they supposed to take the Senate the \*last \*time? Well, what happened? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/6 "2014-08-13T13:50:11Z")
What’s not happening this time, but what Democrats are desperately trying to make happen. Which is why it isn’t happening. You can’t make crazy come out. You have to give it breathing space, let it get confident. “Say something crazy” only gets you crazy on fictional TV shows. Doesn’t work in real life. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 1:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/7 "2014-08-13T13:56:27Z")
The GOP isn’t just “still” trending. They’ve made gains. A couple months ago, liberal Dopers correctly pointed out that Democrats were actually up by a point or three in the non-open seats they were defending. I correctly responded that the earlier it is, the more likely the incumbent is going to appear to be hanging on, since a) likely voter models aren’t widely used yet, it’s mostly just registered voters who are polled, and b) name recognition gives incumbents an advantage before the other party has selected a nominee and that nominee has started campaigning. I’m not always wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Tildrum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e95f7d/32.png) [@Tom\_Tildrum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Tildrum)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/8 "2014-08-13T14:05:55Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Does anyone here think that the Majority Leader in 2015 will still be Harry Reid? I suppose he might switch parties… 😉 ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/9 "2014-08-13T14:20:18Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The GOP isn’t just “still” trending. They’ve made gains. A couple months ago, liberal Dopers correctly pointed out that Democrats were actually up by a point or three in the non-open seats they were defending. I correctly responded that the earlier it is, the more likely the incumbent is going to appear to be hanging on, since a) likely voter models aren’t widely used yet, it’s mostly just registered voters who are polled, and b) name recognition gives incumbents an advantage before the other party has selected a nominee and that nominee has started campaigning. > > I’m not always wrong. Are you seriously already proclaiming victory? Please, please do! ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/10 "2014-08-13T14:48:17Z")
I think the GOP will likely take the Senate by a slim margin (after years of failing ‘sure things’). But they won’t accomplish much and 2016 will see all the 2010 GOP wave gains in purple/blue states come up for re-election and lose it again. I’d prefer the Democrats kept it but I’m not sure how much it matters. Even if a SCotUS justice left the bench, I could easily envision a GOP filibuster and demand that the SCotUS only have eight seats now. ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/11 "2014-08-13T15:12:57Z")
I’m not conceding the Senate yet, but I will admit that there is definitely a GOP lean this cycle. There are just too many structural issues going against the Dems this time around - such as Obama’s incumbency, red-state vulnerabilities, and so on - that certainly make it an uphill climb for them. Still, we’ve heard of the impending GOP Senate takeover since 2010 & it has yet to materialize, so anything can happen really. The R’s have at least 3 solid “gimmes” right now, although the Democrats could still conceivably hold onto the Montana seat if they pull a rabbit out of their hat. I also think Georgia is still very much a solid pickup opportunity even as the R’s seem to falling in line in KY in order to reelect Turtle McConnell (which absolutely BOGGLES my mind given his immense unpopularity). Of course, any majority that they gain will be remarkably slim, and they’ll just lose it again in 2016 when all of the lunatic incumbents from the '10 cycle are up for reelection in a Presidential year. I will say this about Reid, however: he faces the same institutional problems that dog McConnell. Although I approve of him personally, Reid still is enormously unpopular in NV & it’ll be a minor miracle if he can secure another term in '16 (especially if he faces off against popular NV Gov. Brian Sandoval). ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 3:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/12 "2014-08-13T15:16:19Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Are you seriously already proclaiming victory? Please, please do! I know. On the one hand, Nate Silver is predicting the Democrats will lose the Senate. But, on the other hand, **adaher** is predicting that the Democrats will lose the Senate! ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/13 "2014-08-13T15:27:33Z")
> [@2ManyTacos](#): > > the Democrats could still conceivably hold onto the Montana seat if they pull a rabbit out of their hat. [Senator Dude](http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/is-jeff-bridges-going-to-be-democrats-nominee-for-senate-in-montana-20140812). 😉 If the GOP hopes are mainly that their crazy stays contained this time, not that they need an actual message beyond “Obama sucks”, well, it’s gonna be fun. > [@Hentor](#): > > Nate Silver is predicting the Democrats will lose the Senate Not exactly how that probability stuff works. ---
**Author:** ![Skammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skammer/32/143_2.png) [@Skammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skammer)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/14 "2014-08-13T15:27:55Z")
> [@](#): > > Walsh’s departure from the race came in the same week that two Republican senators — Pat Roberts in Kansas and Lamar Alexander in Tennessee — defeated tea party challengers in primary fights, ensuring that every GOP senator seeking reelection would be the party’s nominee. The GOP was going to keep the Tennessee senate seat even if Lamar had been defeated by a write-in campaign for Daffy Duck. His opponent Joe Carr was right up there with the worst of the Tea Party extremists, but he would have cruised to victory over any conceivable Democrat nominee. Which is why I crossed party lines and voted for Lamar - the devil you know, etc. Actually the Tea Party did quite poorly in the state primaries last week, losing all their state-wide challenges and a couple of local races also. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/15 "2014-08-13T16:43:13Z")
It’s not surprising, we are still hoping they gift it to us again. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/16 "2014-08-13T16:46:58Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’m not always wrong. And a stopped clock is correct twice each day. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/17 "2014-08-13T17:14:15Z")
The situation is depressing in Iowa. Tom Harkin, a liberal Democrat, is retiring. Iowa is usually a middle of the road state. The Republican candidate is Joni Ernst, a Tea Party type who wants to abolish the Department of Education and the EPA. The majority of recent polls show her as leading–although with the normal error range in polls I expect most here would conclude the race is basically tied: [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa\_senate\_ernst\_vs\_braley-3990.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_braley-3990.html) ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/18 "2014-08-13T17:57:12Z")
If one believes RCP, though I do think they have a rightish bias, there are 45 safe, likely, or leaning Dem seats and 46 equivalent for the Reps. So there are 9 seats to decide control, both sides need to pick up 5 of the tossups. They are AK, CO, IA, MI, KY, AR, LA, GA, and NC. I like the Democrats’ chances in CO, IA, MI, and GA. If McConnell beaten in KY, a distinct possiblity, then Dems gain control. How sweet it would be if the deciding seat is McConnell’s loss. ---
**Author:** ![yellowjacketcoder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/4bbf92/32.png) [@yellowjacketcoder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yellowjacketcoder)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/19 "2014-08-13T18:46:32Z")
I live in GA, and while I would be ecstatic if Nunn won over Perdue, I would be extremely surprised if that happened. This state is just too conservative. That said, Martin was able to force a runoff in 2012, although that was probably on Obama’s coattails more than anything else. I do wonder how the lack of an establishment Republican (apparently Perdue did not even vote in an election before this year) will hurt the party, but there’s already been a cash infusion for him at the national level. ---
**Author:** ![Sinaptics](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Sinaptics](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sinaptics)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/20 "2014-08-13T18:57:02Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I’m still optimistic (though not expecting) that the Republicans will make another big mistake on the national stage. Isn’t there another debt ceiling hike in September? I’m waiting to see how that plays out. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=2)