# GOP still trending to win Senate **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2014, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426 "2014-08-13T10:52:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 17
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2014, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/321 "2014-09-01T15:46:50Z")
You admitted yourself it was about political considerations. Since there are many reasonable, small-bore things he can do that wouldn’t create much of a political backlash, it’s pretty obvious he was going for the big move. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2014, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/322 "2014-09-01T15:49:58Z")
When Republicans do it, they’re following the will of the people. When Democrats do it, they’re giving in to craven political calculations. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2014, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/323 "2014-09-01T15:50:13Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > You admitted yourself it was about political considerations. No I didn’t. I said that it’s not news if a politician makes political considerations. > [@](#): > > Since there are many reasonable, small-bore things he can do that wouldn’t create much of a political backlash, it’s pretty obvious he was going for the big move. There’s nothing he could do that the Republicans wouldn’t inflate as much as they possibly could. Everything Obama does creates a political backlash with (many of) the Republicans in Congress. That’s all they do right now – political backlash. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2014, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/324 "2014-09-01T15:52:47Z")
The Republicans were having a tough time making up their minds. Go hawk, and demand action? Or mutter dark threats about the Imperial President? But not the same guys that were just recently pressing the case for a “Unitary Executive”? OK, so he asks them for a resolution empowering the President…excuse, the Commander in Chief!..to use his executive discretion for military action. Then the Republicans rally around the CinC in a time of war, as is their standard procedure? Heaping praise on his firm resolution? Or do they refuse to support any such authorization, and just continue to demand firm and swift action from…who? He gave the Republicans more rope. They immediately set about securing it to the ceiling and strategically placing the chair for them to stand upon, while they demand action or they will kick their chair from under their feet. Or they can figure out a way to loyally support the Commander in Chief without supporting the President. Excellent news for the Cruz Campaign! ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2014, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/325 "2014-09-01T21:22:36Z")
> [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > When Republicans do it, they’re following the will of the people. When Democrats do it, they’re giving in to craven political calculations. If he was backing off entirely, that would be succumbing to the will of the people. Since he plans to just do it as a lame duck action, he’s just being craven. Too cowardly to subject the Democratic Party to a referendum on his actions. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2014, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/326 "2014-09-01T21:39:54Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If he was backing off entirely, that would be succumbing to the will of the people. > > Since he plans to just do it as a lame duck action, he’s just being craven. Too cowardly to subject the Democratic Party to a referendum on his actions. Mind-reading and psychic predictions aside, this is just weak analysis. There could be many reasons for considering a delay, and many reasons for delaying. I’m sure politics is part of it. As, I’m sure, politics are part of _every single decision every president has ever made ever_. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2014, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/327 "2014-09-01T22:15:01Z")
I think Obama delayed his decision in order to get the Republicans to commit themselves that he might take advantage of that commitment. And they have, they’ve gone hawk. So, how are they going to refuse to sign his Commander in Chief permission slip? Assuming, of course, that they can somehow resist their historical preference for rallying loyally behind the President in times of crisis? Bonus: Democrats running closely in reddish areas can benefit from criticizing the President and steal a bit of Republican thunder. And, of course, votes. He’ll get over it. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/328 "2014-09-03T19:12:55Z")
The [538 senate forecast](http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/) is up. He shows: Probability of D control: 0.361 Probability of R control: 0.639 When I use his probabilities in my math model I get: Probability of D control: 0.29859104591374325 Probability of R control: 0.7014089540862568 His model uses a combination of polls and race fundamentals to determine probabilities where the weight of the race fundamentals decreases as election day approaches (I’m pretty sure). As such he has several races with with a stronger R lean than current polling indicates. ```auto Race R/D Probability Iowa R 52.296% Colo. R 53.228% N.C. R 53.521% Alaska R 54.454% Ark. R 65.804% Ga. R 70.177% La. R 71.492% ``` I believe this difference in approach is the main difference between Nate Silver’s and Sam Wang’s forecasts. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/329 "2014-09-03T19:23:46Z")
Well, yeah, but this overlooks the effect of the Republican Party marching in loyal and patriotic lockstep with the Commander in Chief in a time of crisis. Which, as we all know, is what Republicans always, always do! ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/330 "2014-09-03T19:29:16Z")
That, and talking about rape during a campaign. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/331 "2014-09-03T19:33:57Z")
I find it hard to believe that GA is shown as a 70% probable R win when [Michelle Nunn leads her opponent.](http://www.wrbl.com/story/26427980/wrbl-poll-georgia-governor-senate-races-remain-tight) ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 8:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/332 "2014-09-03T20:35:01Z")
The [polling in Georgia](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-georgia-senate-perdue-vs-nunn) has been pretty volatile. The two most recent polls show Nunn in the lead as do four of the last ten. However, three of those four were conducted by the same polling firm (Landmark Communications). Two mid-august polls that nearly overlapped showed Nunn +7 and Perdue +9. I find it hard to believe that Nunn is even a longshot to pull off a victory, but evidence to support that hypothesis is piling up. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/333 "2014-09-03T20:40:07Z")
Weird [polling in Louisiana](http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2014-louisiana-senate-cassidy-vs-landrieu) as well. Or at least it seems weird to me that the most recent poll was back in July. I would think that a race that close would get polled more often (… than Paris Hilton. \). ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2014, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/334 "2014-09-03T23:46:52Z")
Cory Gardner in Colorado is moving to the left: [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/09/03/cory\_gardner\_says\_hes\_a\_new\_kind\_of\_republican\_123846.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/09/03/cory_gardner_says_hes_a_new_kind_of_republican_123846.html) ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2014, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/335 "2014-09-04T01:44:49Z")
And yet, some people say that anti-psychotic medications are ineffective! And say, what the heck is the matter with Kansas? Take it, **addie!** > [@](#): > > The topsy-turvy race for the Senate in Kansas took another turn Wednesday when the lackluster Democratic candidate dropped out, elevating an independent newcomer to battle incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Roberts this fall. > > The sudden narrowing of what had been a three-way race could give Democrats a rare pickup opportunity in conservative Kansas during an election cycle that favors Republicans. The GOP is increasingly favored to net six seats to gain control of the Senate. > > “There’s obviously an opportunity here,” said a Democratic strategist, who asked for anonymity to frankly discuss the situation. “Roberts is clearly very vulnerable.”… > **[Democrats see chance in Kansas Senate race -- after Democrat drops out](https://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/politicsnow/la-pn-kansas-senate-independent-20140903-story.html?track=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A%2Blatimes%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2B%28L.A.%2BTimes%2B-%2BPolitics%29)** > > The topsy-turvy race for the Senate in Kansas took another turn Wednesday when the lackluster Democratic candidate dropped out, elevating an independent newcomer to battle incumbent Republican Sen. Oh, dear. Oh, my. Have you seen the polling on that independent guy against Roberts? Oh, dear. Oh, my. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2014, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/336 "2014-09-04T02:07:08Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Two on-line betting sites both show GOP as about 65% to win control of the Senate in November… > [A graph of the prediction over the past 20 months](https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/Senate14.png) might be interesting. In October 2013, Demos were rated 80% to keep control. Click the link again to see that in less than 3 weeks, GOP chance (as judged at a betting site) has risen to 78%. Paddy Power shows about 71%. Before taking the huge odds offered for Democratic Control at Betfair, be aware that 51 Democratic Senators are needed to win that bet, while in this thread (or most books) 48 is enough (with King, Sanders, Biden making the 3 extra votes needed). ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2014, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/337 "2014-09-04T04:18:08Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > And yet, some people say that anti-psychotic medications are ineffective! > > And say, what the heck is the matter with Kansas? Take it, **addie!** > > [Democrats see chance in Kansas Senate race -- after Democrat drops out](http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/politicsnow/la-pn-kansas-senate-independent-20140903-story.html?track=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+latimes%2Fnews%2Fpolitics+%28L.A.+Times+-+Politics%29) > > Oh, dear. Oh, my. Have you seen the polling on that independent guy against Roberts? Oh, dear. Oh, my. -1. The first of many(we hope). ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2014, 5:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/338 "2014-09-04T05:24:18Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > The [538 senate forecast](http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/) is up. > > He shows: > > Probability of D control: 0.361 > Probability of R control: 0.639 … I’d lean toward’s Nate’s model over Sam Wang. Sam maintains that polling beats fundamentals in late August. Nate’s approach weights polls heavier as we get closer to Nov 3, but still leaves some scope for fundamentals. We should be skeptical about Sam because, a) while he could be correct, he’s an outlier and b) Nate mentioned that polling was very thin in August and furthermore a lot of it was done by dodgy polling firms. Rounding, I’m giving the Republicans 60% odds. But given Sam’s strong performance in 2012 and the importance of polling during late September and onwards, I wouldn’t rule out a dramatic shift in probabilities. BTW, the NYT has a roll your own forecast applet on their website: > **[Elections 2014: Make Your Own Senate Forecast (Published 2014)](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/elections-2014-make-your-own-senate-forecast.html)** > > Create and share your own forecast for who will win the midterm elections. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2014, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/339 "2014-09-04T12:14:51Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > And yet, some people say that anti-psychotic medications are ineffective! > > And say, what the heck is the matter with Kansas? Take it, **addie!** > > [Democrats see chance in Kansas Senate race -- after Democrat drops out](http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/politicsnow/la-pn-kansas-senate-independent-20140903-story.html?track=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+latimes%2Fnews%2Fpolitics+%28L.A.+Times+-+Politics%29) > > Oh, dear. Oh, my. Have you seen the polling on that independent guy against Roberts? Oh, dear. Oh, my. It’s a roll of the dice for Dems. The independent says he’ll caucus with the majority. And if he gets to decide the majority, I wonder how much the Democrats are willing to pay? First they have to jettison Reid as majority leader. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2014, 12:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/340 "2014-09-04T12:17:54Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > I’d lean toward’s Nate’s model over Sam Wang. Sam maintains that polling beats fundamentals in late August. Nate’s approach weights polls heavier as we get closer to Nov 3, but still leaves some scope for fundamentals. > > We should be skeptical about Sam because, a) while he could be correct, he’s an outlier and b) Nate mentioned that polling was very thin in August and furthermore a lot of it was done by dodgy polling firms. > > Rounding, I’m giving the Republicans 60% odds. But given Sam’s strong performance in 2012 and the importance of polling during late September and onwards, I wouldn’t rule out a dramatic shift in probabilities. > BTW, the NYT has a roll your own forecast applet on their website: > [Elections 2014: Make Your Own Senate Forecast - The New York Times](http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/elections-2014-make-your-own-senate-forecast.html) That’s why I find Wang’s forecast so weird, most races don’t have that much reliable polling yet. Alaska hasn’t had a single reliable poll since Sullivan won the primary, yet Wang said that Begich was looking safer now? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=16) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=18)