# GOP still trending to win Senate **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2014, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426 "2014-08-13T10:52:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![amarone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e0b2c6/32.png) [@amarone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amarone)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/21 "2014-08-13T22:49:47Z")
> [@yellowjacketcoder](#): > > (apparently Perdue did not even vote in an election before this year) [You been believing too many of Jack Kingston’s ads?](http://www.politifact.com/georgia/statements/2014/jul/18/jack-kingston/record-doesnt-support-kingston-claim-against-perdu/) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/22 "2014-08-14T00:11:41Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Are you seriously already proclaiming victory? Please, please do! No, just pointing out that my “awful political analysis” turned out to be accurate. Once nominations were secured and as we get closer to election day, the challengers have gained. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/23 "2014-08-14T00:28:06Z")
Oh, and those who think 2016 will be great for the Democrats? Let’s look at the Republican freshmen running for reelection: John Boozman- Arkansas. Red state. Marco Rubio-Florida. Purple state. Mark Kirk-Illinois. Blue state Dan Coats-Indiana. Red state Jerry Moran-Kansas. Red state Rand Paul-Kentucky. Red state Roy Blunt-Missouri. Purple state Kelly Ayotte-New Hampshire. Blue state John Hoeven-North Dakota. Red state Rob Portman-Ohio. Purple state. Pat Toomey-Pennsylvania. Blue state. Mike Lee-Utah. Red state. Ron Johnson-Wisconsin. Blue state If the election goes as it is trending today, the Democrats will need two seats to win the Senate back. There are four GOP Senators occupying blue seats: Mark Kirk, Pat Toomey, Ron Johnson, and Kelly Ayotte. In addition, Portman, Rubio, and Blunt occupy seats in states that are competitive for Democrats. So sure, it’s quite doable. But when I look at that list, I see a big problem. Incumbents are always hard to beat absent a wave election. The only guy who has been far to the right of his voters is Ron Johnson. If we also assume that things remain the same two years from now, the Democrats will be defending the Big Seat, an open seat, trying to succeed a guy with a 41% approval rating. Ain’t gonna be no Democratic wave. So at best, the Democrats can win the Senate by a seat in 2016, win the Presidency, and the GOP will still control the House. THen in 2018, all those Democrats who won in 2012 are up for reelection, like in North Dakota, and the GOP just takes the Senate back again. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/24 "2014-08-14T00:30:23Z")
Boy, **adaher’s** optimism for future GOP prospects just makes my day 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/25 "2014-08-14T00:33:51Z")
National Journal explores how much of this is Harry Reid’s fault: > **[If Democrats Lose the Senate, Harry Reid Deserves the Blame](https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/41960/)** > > The Senate majority leader's aggressive tactics have backfired, threatening his hold on leadership. ---
**Author:** ![yellowjacketcoder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/4bbf92/32.png) [@yellowjacketcoder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yellowjacketcoder)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/26 "2014-08-14T03:03:43Z")
> [@amarone](#): > > [You been believing too many of Jack Kingston’s ads?](http://www.politifact.com/georgia/statements/2014/jul/18/jack-kingston/record-doesnt-support-kingston-claim-against-perdu/) From the link [QUOTE=Politifact] Public records show Perdue didn’t vote in a general election primary until this year, when he’s a candidate for U.S. Senate. But those same records show Perdue voted Republican in the presidential primaries in 2008 and 2012. [/QUOTE] To be fair, I did not know the whole story, but having not voted in any general primary and only in the presidential primary the previous two election cycles is not a great record. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 4:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/27 "2014-08-14T04:04:32Z")
[Wang’s take.](http://election.princeton.edu/2014/08/04/why-youre-wrong-to-get-excited-about-60/#more-10570) > [@](#): > > … Fundamentally, any probability in the 40-60% range is a numerical way of saying “I don’t know.” … He further points out that the only recent poll makes Alaska, one of the 5 races that supposed to be up in the air (and which the democrats need to win 3 out of 5 of to maintain control), not so much up in the air and in the D bucket. If so then the odds become 50/50 … +/- 20% of course. As he concludes: > [@](#): > > Make no mistake: at the moment, the battle for Senate control is super-close. If national opinion swings as little as 2 points in either direction, uncertainty about Senate control will evaporate. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 4:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/28 "2014-08-14T04:06:53Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Does anyone here think that the Majority Leader in 2015 will still be Harry Reid? It is kinda funny that it might be a Republican other than Mitch McConnell though. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/29 "2014-08-14T04:09:08Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > I’d prefer the Democrats kept it but I’m not sure how much it matters. Even if a SCotUS justice left the bench, I could easily envision a GOP filibuster and demand that the SCotUS only have eight seats now. Are you aware that Democrats changed the rules (see “nuclear option”) and that the minority party cannot filibuster Supreme Court nominations anymore? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/30 "2014-08-14T04:09:42Z")
In the case of Alaska, it’s the same thing I talked about a month or two ago: Yes, the incumbent is ahead. Problem is, he’s polling under 45% and the GOP hasn’t even selected their nominee yet. Here’s the current polling against Sullivan: [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ak/alaska\_senate\_sullivan\_vs\_begich-3658.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ak/alaska_senate_sullivan_vs_begich-3658.html) Sullivan is down by 2.8. And as has been the case in three other races, Sullivan will take the lead after he wins the nomination. Then it will be GOP +8. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/31 "2014-08-14T04:10:43Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > Are you aware that Democrats changed the rules (see “nuclear option”) and that the minority party cannot filibuster Supreme Court nominations anymore? Actually, I think they can(SCOTUS appointments were an exception because Democrats are more likely to filibuster than Republicans), but the GOP won’t unless it’s an extreme nominee. They’ve had opportunities to do it twice and declined. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/32 "2014-08-14T04:18:18Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Actually, I think they can(SCOTUS appointments were an exception because Democrats are more likely to filibuster than Republicans), but the GOP won’t unless it’s an extreme nominee. They’ve had opportunities to do it twice and declined. Ah you’re right. My bad. In any case, I hope when GOP grabs the senate they use their majority to reverse that “nuclear option” decision. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/33 "2014-08-14T04:34:34Z")
Eh, I don’t really like the idea of filibustering nominees, even SCOTUS nominees. Laws, yes. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/34 "2014-08-14T04:37:43Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Eh, I don’t really like the idea of filibustering nominees, even SCOTUS nominees. Laws, yes. I do. Having laws pass or nominees approved by 51% votes is a recipe for discontent. The “in your face” politics that this generates are not good for the country. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 4:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/35 "2014-08-14T04:56:20Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > I do. Having laws pass or nominees approved by 51% votes is a recipe for discontent. The “in your face” politics that this generates are not good for the country. There’s a difference between a nominee not getting the votes and a nominee not getting a vote because it’s blocked by a handful of people. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/36 "2014-08-14T04:58:15Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > There’s a difference between a nominee not getting the votes and a nominee not getting a vote because it’s blocked by a handful of people. 40 senators is a lot more than a “handful”. ---
**Author:** ![Sinaptics](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Sinaptics](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sinaptics)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/37 "2014-08-14T13:33:02Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > 40 senators is a lot more than a “handful”. This assumes that the minority party is actually putting the country first and not just voting in a partisan manner to deny the other team an appointment. You have to admit, there isn’t much political liability to being obstructionist in the this regard. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/38 "2014-08-14T13:51:35Z")
Actually, there is, if what they are blocking is sufficiently popular and the President has the ability to communicate with the public well. Obama’s abilities in this regard have always been overrated. While he’s been very good at getting himself elected, he’s been no help to Congressional Democrats. The only reason Democrats control the Senate today is because Republicans beat themselves. Democrats knew better than to try to obstruct Reagan. And Republicans paid the price when they went too far with Clinton. Obama’s just not as effective a communicator as those two. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/39 "2014-08-14T13:55:25Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Democrats knew better than to try to obstruct Reagan. And Republicans paid the price when they went too far with Clinton. Obama’s just not as effective a communicator as those two. Obama is just as talented a communicator as Reagan or Clinton. But there are larger segments of the population and of the political opposition who refuse to listen to anything Obama says, no matter how he says it, and no matter what he’s saying. So his challenge in communicating is greater than both, despite his equally impressive talents. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2014, 2:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/40 "2014-08-14T14:01:56Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Obama is just as talented a communicator as Reagan or Clinton. But there are larger segments of the population and of the political opposition who refuse to listen to anything Obama says, no matter how he says it, and no matter what he’s saying. He’s just as good a “speaker”. Being an effective communicator is a level above that. Reagan and Clinton knew how to reach an audience, explain to them how what they were talking about mattered to them. Obama’s awesome as a speaker, but in a professorial way. Plus he’s overly political, which is why such a large portion of the public tunes him out. When you attack Republicans so overtly and so consistently, of COURSE anyone who identifies as a Republican or even likes some things about the Republicans is going to stop listening. Because at that point it’s just another political speech. In any case, we can disagree on why Obama can’t make the Republicans pay for obstructing him the way a Reagan or Clinton could, but the fact is, there’s never been a political price for opposing him. Even Bush was more effective at scaring Democrats into giving him what he wanted, at least when he had the political capital. Obviously at this point in his Presidency, nearly six years in, everyone was tuning him out. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=3)