# GOP still trending to win Senate **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2014, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426 "2014-08-13T10:52:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 25
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2014, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/481 "2014-09-12T02:52:41Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > … Sam turned down a bet with Nate, which bums me out. There are various ways to score forecasts, and it would be interesting if there was some money on the line. Maybe $10 per day, divided according to the two maven’s reported probabilities. To be fair, I’m guessing Nate pulls down a lot more than Sam. Well his overarching point is that at this point all the models are essentially saying it is too close to call with the information currenty available. Of note [in his reply](http://election.princeton.edu/2014/09/09/is-nate-silver-a-little-too-excited-about-probabilities/) to the offer of a bet was a counter offer bet based on Nate’s model. > [@](#): > > … In my analysis, the pure polling data suggest that Democrats are favored. But to me, a wager at this time sounds like taking turns playing Russian roulette – for both players. > > However, I do see a fairly juicy bet in the FiveThirtyEight calculation. > > I have to say, this special sauce is messy stuff. Really, the GOP has an 25% chance (3-1 odds) of getting 54 or more seats? I’d put it at more like 5%. Even 53 GOP seats is a fairly outside outcome. If a betting person were offered the chance to put up $3000 against Nate Silver’s $1000 on that outcome…that would be taking his money. > > Joking aside, there are two serious points to be made here. First, nobody should be getting excited about any probability that is in the 20-80% range. That includes Nate Silver, who knows better. Second, the addition of “fundamentals” and other factors adds considerable uncertainty to the projection. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2014, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/482 "2014-09-12T03:07:38Z")
> [@Zakalwe](#): > > And healthcare costs will resume rising and corporations will make shit tons of money and poor people will continue to die. The US has one of the WORST healthcare systems in the First World, so let’s keep it! USA! USA! USA! Health care costs are rising now. One way to make health care costs lower is to allow consumers to buy less comprehensive plans. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2014, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/483 "2014-09-12T03:09:55Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > Well his overarching point is that at this point all the models are essentially saying it is too close to call with the information currenty available. Of note [in his reply](http://election.princeton.edu/2014/09/09/is-nate-silver-a-little-too-excited-about-probabilities/) to the offer of a bet was a counter offer bet based on Nate’s model. Nate’s model assumes that the races aren’t independent of one another. A 2-point swing nationally can put more seats in the GOP column. I’d say 25% is very reasonable for the GOP to get 8-9 seats. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2014, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/484 "2014-09-12T03:52:51Z")
I can believe a 51-seat or even 52-seat Republican majority. I’d be extremely surprised by anything beyond that. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2014, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/485 "2014-09-12T03:59:39Z")
I actually think 51 or 52 is unlikely. If this election is national, then the GOP will either disappoint across the board, by winning only 3-4 seats, or sweep, and win 8-10. Just depends on what the national mood is like in November. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 12, 2014, 1:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/486 "2014-09-12T13:29:25Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The exchanges are actually a Republican idea and they will stay regardless. I’ll simply respond “Cite?” and cover it that way, howzat? ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 1:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/487 "2014-09-16T13:06:05Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I actually think 51 or 52 is unlikely. If this election is national, then the GOP will either disappoint across the board, by winning only 3-4 seats, or sweep, and win 8-10. Just depends on what the national mood is like in November. Actually, according to the latest from 538 now has 52 GOP as the most likely scenario with 50 and 49 in 2nd and 3rd. Overall, the GOP’s chances have dropped to 55% from the open of 65%. Still time for some rape comments from the GOP to help things along… ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/488 "2014-09-16T13:27:48Z")
Two new polls show Hagan with a solid lead, although a new poll also shows Brown now tied with Shaheen. [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest\_polls/senate/](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/senate/) I’d rather have Scott Brown than Tillis if I get to choose, which I don’t. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/489 "2014-09-16T14:14:10Z")
Nate Silver now calls the race for control of the Senate [“pretty darn close”](http://www.salon.com/2014/09/16/election_2014_update_nate_silver_says_senate_dems_are_gaining/). ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/490 "2014-09-16T14:16:38Z")
I’m hoping that the generic poll lead the GOP opened up starts filtering down to these close races soon. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/491 "2014-09-16T14:31:35Z")
It works the other way. When you’re presenting actual people to voters, they don’t get to impose their own idealized, typically positive views of what parties stand for upon them. The NH race, FI, is Shaheen and Brown, not generic Dem and generic Rep. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/492 "2014-09-16T14:32:37Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Nate Silver now calls the race for control of the Senate [“pretty darn close”](http://www.salon.com/2014/09/16/election_2014_update_nate_silver_says_senate_dems_are_gaining/). Always willing to take a bold stand, that’s our Nate. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/493 "2014-09-16T14:36:42Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > It works the other way. When you’re presenting actual people to voters, they don’t get to impose their own idealized, typically positive views of what parties stand for upon them. The NH race, FI, is Shaheen and Brown, not generic Dem and generic Rep. That’s true. But there has been a big movement in the generic polls, so I’d like to see movement in the individual race polls. Not saying it WILL happen, just that I want it to. But alas, I do not always get what I want. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/494 "2014-09-16T19:17:41Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > Current odds: NYT: Upshot: 59% in the Republican’s favor > 538: 62.2% > Sam Wang: 30% > > I’ll plonk for 59%: the median forecast, as it were. That’s from Sep 10th. Today 538 is tracking at 54.7% for the Republicans. Upshot gives 51%. Sam Wang’s forecast is steady. That is _exactly_ the pattern you should see if polls don’t matter in early September. Sam Wang: [INDENT]Second, as the election approaches, other sites are decreasing the bias that they add by using fundamentals. This will inevitably make them approach the PEC snapshot, day by day. If everything converges on the PEC Election Day prediction, I would score that as an argument in favor of using polls only – or at least letting readers see the difference added by the use of fundamentals. [/INDENT] I’d say we’re at the point where breaking out the contribution of fundamentals would be interesting. Over at MfM armchair central, we’ve increased the subjective probability of living in Samland. I currently place the odds of a Republican senatorial majority at 45.2% - the straight mean of all 3 forecasts. I don’t say 30% (Sam’s forecast) , because 5 days of data could be a mere blip. Still, I no longer de-weight his forecast because it’s an outlier. Not incidentally, 45% is very close to 50-50. It would take a lot of flips to figure out that a coin was unfairly weighted to that extent. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/495 "2014-09-16T19:28:50Z")
Sorry, I misspoke. Or rather, miswrote. What I meant to write was, “That is _exactly_ the pattern you should see if [del]polls[/del] fundamentals don’t matter in early September.” ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/496 "2014-09-16T19:53:50Z")
Republicans will, of course, be using every dirty trick in the book to win the close races. As should the Democrats, but they do not have the desperate edge of being behind in the demographics, hence are not so willing to dump scruples. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/497 "2014-09-16T21:46:18Z")
Nate Silver’s forecast is now up to 47% that the Dems hold the Senate. 52 R seats is still the most likely outcome, but 49 and 50 follow closely behind. > **[2014 Senate Forecast](https://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/)** > > FiveThirtyEight’s election forecasting model combines hundreds of opinion polls with historical and demographic information to calculate odds for each Senate ra… ---
**Author:** ![BigAppleBucky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigapplebucky/32/178_2.png) [@BigAppleBucky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigAppleBucky)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/498 "2014-09-16T23:09:07Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The insurers don’t have to oppose it. They are still free to drop their plans if they wish. They just wouldn’t be required to. > > In addition, professional associations could keep their own arrangements with insurers which the law made basically illegal. Employers and insurers were the ones making the changes. Of course, if the GOP were going to fix the ACA by making it a single payer system or even by simply adding a public option, I’d favor them winning. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/499 "2014-09-16T23:27:48Z")
Yeah, that’s not gonna happen. We’re trying to move towards more choice, not less. And I’ll anticipate your response that the public option would add choice. It would, but it’s also a poison pill. Will the public option compete in the market, or will it have government covering its losses should they occur? If it was to fail completely, would that convince Democrats it’s a bad idea or would they just resurrect it, this time with anticompetitive advantages? The issue was trust. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 16, 2014, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/500 "2014-09-16T23:47:44Z")
Yeah, funny how the special sauce sites start moving towards what Wang has been saying. Exactly **MtM** … at least by end of August Wang was saying pretty much what he is saying now. Meanwhile the added fundamentals special sauce sites have moved toward that. So now Silver is calling it a coin flip and Wang saying a coin flip that marginally favors a Dem plus Independent majority. If we believe that 538 and others in the herd are more likely more accurate as the election gets closer, today than 3 weeks ago, then adding fundamentals subtracted from predictive value. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=24) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=26)