# GOP still trending to win Senate **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2014, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426 "2014-08-13T10:52:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 29
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/561 "2014-09-24T01:29:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Democrats are less motivated, I would expect they’d have more people who don’t want to actually leave the house to vote.🙂 Or they have to work two jobs and don’t have the time. Now, how about your evolving views on ACA? Come around yet or not? I vote for keeping the title of the OP just to taunt the oppositionists on Election Night. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/562 "2014-09-24T15:09:39Z")
Democrats working two jobs? The GOP wins the working vote by a wide margin. Democrats only achieve 50-50 parity with the GOP because they overwhelmingly win the idle vote. And the idle are very difficult to motivate, which is kinda their problem. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/563 "2014-09-24T15:20:10Z")
Priceless. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/564 "2014-09-24T16:05:23Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The GOP wins the working vote by a wide margin. Democrats only achieve 50-50 parity with the GOP because they overwhelmingly win the idle vote. Do you have a cite? Sometimes you seem well-informed. Other times, you seem to pull “facts” out of your nose. [Union households, who voted 58-40 for Obama in 2012](http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/how_groups_voted/voted_12.html) seem to me to be a plausible proxy for “working”. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/565 "2014-09-24T19:05:06Z")
Union households make up a small percentage of workers. I define workers as simply, people who work for a living. My cite is simple math: if we assume that most welfare recipients vote Democrat, then in a 50-50 nation, the Republicans would have to make up the difference by winning a higher percentage of those with jobs than the Democrats. If working people were splitting 50-50 and welfare recipients 70-30, then Democrats would be winning most elections quite easily. If Democrats were actually winning among workers, then they’d win every election by a landslide like they did in their heyday. Democrats lost their electoral edge primarily because they lost the working man’s vote. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/566 "2014-09-24T19:17:26Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > My cite is simple math: if we assume that most welfare recipients vote Democrat Why would you assume such idiocy? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/567 "2014-09-24T19:23:17Z")
It’s quite a reasonable assumption. The poor vote Democratic by an overwhelming margin in every election. In order for those numbers to reveal that my math is wrong, you would have to assume that the working poor vote overwhelmingly Democrat, while the non-working poor vote Republican. Fortunately, I did find a cite, since CNN helpfully asked the question in 2012: Do you work full time for pay? [http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president](http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president) Of those who did, ROmney and Obama both won 49%. Obama won the election by beating Romney by 8 points among those who do not work full time. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/568 "2014-09-24T19:28:27Z")
In 2008, Obama won working voters by 50-48. > **[Local Exit Polls - Election Center 2008 - Elections & Politics from CNN.com](https://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p3)** > > Latest results, headlines and video, candidates' positions on the issues, fundraising totals, States to Watch news and analysis, and a unique side-by-side visual comparison of the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates. Bush won the working person’s vote in 2004 8 points: [http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html](http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html) ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/569 "2014-09-24T19:29:36Z")
So much for “The GOP wins the working vote by a wide margin”, then. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/570 "2014-09-24T19:30:06Z")
So basically, **adaher** , your cites prove your statements in posts #562 and 565 are mostly bullshit. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/571 "2014-09-24T19:32:06Z")
A cite for sore eyes, to be sure. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/572 "2014-09-24T19:34:30Z")
Yeah, I thought it was wider… Probably was pretty wide in 2010 and will be in 2014. Unfortunately, CNN didn’t ask the question in 2010. My math was correct though. Democrats win the non-working vote pretty solidly. Which means in a 50-50 election, Republicans won the working vote. I just thought the margins were wider, such that even in Obama’s wins, the GOP should have won the working vote. Instead, they tied in 2012 and lost by 2 points in 2008. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/573 "2014-09-24T19:37:07Z")
Even when you admit being wrong, you \*still \*claim to be right. Amazing. Or perhaps those polls were just skewed, hmm? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/574 "2014-09-24T19:37:31Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Yeah, I thought it was wider… Probably was pretty wide in 2010 and will be in 2014. Unfortunately, CNN didn’t ask the question in 2010. Don’t be so easy on yourself. You said something ridiculous (the Republicans win the working vote by a wide margin) that was easily disprovable. > [@](#): > > My math was correct though. LOL. Only for an extremely charitable interpretation of the word “correct”. If I was grading this math problem, you’d get about 1 point out of 5. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/575 "2014-09-24T20:03:52Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > Why would you assume such idiocy? Got that one right though. I don’t know why you wouldn’t assume that the non-working would vote Democrat. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/576 "2014-09-24T20:14:45Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Got that one right though. I don’t know why you wouldn’t assume that the non-working would vote Democrat. Because the states collecting the most welfare are republican? because the retired are mostly GOP voters? because this idea that the 47% vote democrat is just an idiotic lie only true in conservative minds, which pretty much makes it wrong by default like everything other lie they believe? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/577 "2014-09-24T20:19:40Z")
You’re mistaken about GOP states collecting welfare, unless you define all federal spending as welfare. ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/578 "2014-09-24T20:49:28Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > You’re mistaken about GOP states collecting welfare, unless you define all federal spending as welfare. Please define welfare. Also, why not count spending vs. contributions? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/579 "2014-09-24T20:58:08Z")
You can count that just fine. Red states receive more than they pay out, although I suspect the fact they didn’t expand Medicaid might have tipped those numbers back in favor of blue states. Welfare is defined as programs to help the poor. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/580 "2014-09-24T21:26:54Z")
He did the math. He did the monster math. The monster math! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=28) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=30)