# GOP still trending to win Senate **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2014, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426 "2014-08-13T10:52:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 30
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/581 "2014-09-24T21:29:03Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > …Welfare is defined as programs to help the poor. Programs to help the rich are defined as sound economic theory. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/582 "2014-09-24T21:41:59Z")
There’s corporate welfare, but corporations don’t vote, so that’s not particularly relevant to this part of the discussion. BTW, when are Democrats going to become against corporate welfare again, or is that just campaign talk? ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/583 "2014-09-24T22:50:41Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > You’re mistaken about GOP states collecting welfare, unless you define all federal spending as welfare. The state with the highest food stamp participation rate is Mississippi; most of the staunchly Republican states in the South have above-average levels, while California and New Jersey (to name two liberal strongholds) are below average. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2014, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/584 "2014-09-24T23:01:25Z")
And the midwest and Western Republican states? ---
**Author:** ![Truman\_Burbank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecc23a/32.png) [@Truman\_Burbank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Truman_Burbank)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2014, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/585 "2014-09-25T00:08:25Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > So basically, **adaher** , your cites prove your statements in posts #562 and 565 are mostly bullshit. And Rocket J. Squirrel asks plaintively: **_Again_?** ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2014, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/586 "2014-09-25T00:20:09Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And the midwest and Western Republican states? [This](http://swampland.time.com/2013/12/04/interactive-republicans-more-likely-to-have-constituents-who-use-food-stamps/) may answer your question I think. Or at least as close as we can get. > [@](#): > > House Republicans represent more districts with high levels of participation in the program than House Democrats … Because of limitations in Feeding America’s data, which is missing county-level data for about a dozen states, it is not possible to make a definitive correlation between SNAP enrollment in a district and the party of the member who represents it in Congress. (It is also difficult to translate county data into congressional districts in small or highly gerrymandered districts, leading to some margin of error.) Based on the available figures, there does not appear to be a significant difference in food-stamp usage in Democratic or Republican districts, with both averages in the neighborhood of the national mean. [Another source:](http://www.businessinsider.com/red-states-are-welfare-queens-2011-8) > [@](#): > > Flip to any news channel in the past three years, and you can almost be certain to see any number of Republican governors, blustering about how Washington spends too much money and how they’d never spend that much money if they were President. It’s a lot of tough talk, really. But is there any truth to it? > Well, all of this tough budget talk from Republicans got me thinking about the central: who really benefits from government spending? If you listen to Rush Limbaugh, you might think it was those blue states, packed with damn hippie socialist liberals, sipping their lattes and providing free abortions for bored, horny teenagers. > > The truth? Not so fast, Michele Bachmann. > > As it turns out, it is red states that are overwhelmingly the Welfare Queen States. Yes, that’s right. Red States — the ones governed by folks who think government is too big and spending needs to be cut — are a net drain on the economy, taking in more federal spending than they pay out in federal taxes. They talk a good game, but stick Blue States with the bill. > > Take a look at the difference between federal spending on any given state and the federal taxes received from that state. We measure the difference as a dollar amount: Federal Spending per Dollar of Federal Taxes. A figure of $1.00 means that particular state received as much as it paid in to the federal government. Anything over a dollar means the state received more than it paid; anything less than $1.00 means the state paid more in taxes than it received in services. The higher the figure, the more a given state is a welfare queen. > > Of the twenty worst states, 16 are either Republican dominated or conservative states. Let’s go through the top twenty. > > New Mexico: $2.03 > Mississippi: $2.02 > Alaska: $1.84 > Louisiana: $1.78 > West Virginia: $1.76 > North Dakota: $1.68 > Alabama: $1.66 > South Dakota: $1.53 > Kentucky: $1.51 > Virginia: $1.51 > Montana: $1.47 > … [Another way to dice it.](http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_reckoning/2012/10/25/blue_state_red_face_guess_who_benefits_more_from_your_taxes.html) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2014, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/587 "2014-09-25T14:57:44Z")
You answered a different question. Slash was talking about southern states and food stamps. You cited what almost all of us already know, that red states get more in federal spending than they receive. WHich again, may not be true anymore since the Medicaid expansion that most of them didn’t participate in. ---
**Author:** ![Frank](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Frank](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frank)\ **Post date:** [September 25, 2014, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/588 "2014-09-25T15:04:43Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > WHich again, may not be true anymore since the Medicaid expansion that most of them didn’t participate in. So the federal subsidies going directly to their inhabitants instead of through the state don’t count? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2014, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/589 "2014-09-26T17:46:20Z")
It must be noted that there have been a run of polls favorable to the GOP in _both_ Alaska and Colorado recently. Wang’s election day prediction number stands pat for now (it has some inertia) but his “metamargin” is now in GOP territory. Sigh. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2014, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/590 "2014-09-26T18:08:27Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Orman said that he would expect whoever he caucused with to get rid of their current leader. Who is more willing to chuck their leader, the Democrats or the Republicans? How attached are Dems to Harry Reid? McConnell strikes me as like Boehner, the Tea Party would be glad to chuck him if they could. The answer is neither so that is not going to be part of his decision. ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2014, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/591 "2014-09-26T18:17:39Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > And the midwest and Western Republican states? vary more widely. Arizona, e.g., is above average, while Wyoming has very low usage levels. See the [2012 participation levels mapped](http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2013/07/12/this-map-of-the-u-s-shows-a-state-by-state-look-at-food-stamp-participation/): the states with above-average levels are concentrated in a band from Arizona to North Carolina, with an arm extending up through Appalachia into Ohio and Michigan. There are a few outliers in the Northeast and Northwest, but the bulk of the states with high levels of food stamp enrollment are in the solidly Republican South. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2014, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/592 "2014-09-26T23:01:38Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > The answer is neither so that is not going to be part of his decision. There is nothing about McConnell or Reid that makes them indispensable. If anything, they are very, very dispensable. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2014, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/593 "2014-09-26T23:14:50Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > if we assume that most welfare recipients vote Democrat, Clive Bundy and the Walmart executives vote Democratic? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2014, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/594 "2014-09-26T23:23:06Z")
Actually, these days it’s the Democrats who stand up for corporate welfare. But we will celebrate together when Democrats join the Republicans in ending corporate subsidies. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2014, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/595 "2014-09-28T18:37:50Z")
Republican chance of victory: Sam Wang: 51% 538: 60% The Upshot (NYT): 67% Average of 3: 59%. WAPO: 70% Huffpo: 58% As fundamentals take a smaller share of the modeling output, it looks like Sam Wang’s figures are converging to the consensus more than the consensus is converging to Sam Wang. The race is still a tossup, but the Republicans have a slight edge, with MfM labs giving them a 59% probability. > [@RTFirefly](#): > > Nitpick: 5 to 1 odds = one chance in 6. So you’d expect 16 or 17 to come through. That calculation was made by one of our interns who has been fired. We regret the error. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2014, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/596 "2014-09-28T19:05:32Z")
Our statistician, Marge N. Overra. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2014, 12:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/597 "2014-09-29T00:03:21Z")
Why does he have the GOP with 51 seats leading, but still a 70% chance of Dem hold if the election were held today? And here, Wang seems to be saying 68% chance of GOP control: [http://election.princeton.edu/todays-senate-seat-count-histogram/](http://election.princeton.edu/todays-senate-seat-count-histogram/) ---
**Author:** ![Some\_Call\_Me.Tim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@Some\_Call\_Me.Tim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Some_Call_Me.Tim)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2014, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/598 "2014-09-29T00:52:11Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Why does he have the GOP with 51 seats leading, but still a 70% chance of Dem hold if the election were held today? There’s no contradiction. To use a simplified example, say there were just three seats: two with a 60% chance of going R (and 40% for D), and the third a 100% lock for D. One could say that the R is leading in 2 of the three seats, but one could also say that they only have a 36% chance of control after the election (.6 x .6) versus the 64% for the D. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2014, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/599 "2014-09-29T03:47:57Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Why does he have the GOP with 51 seats leading, but still a 70% chance of Dem hold if the election were held today? > … He does not. The 70% is not his election held today but his odds for the election when it is held weeks from now. That number does not move so easily, as he explains. He currently gives no “nowcast.” He still believes that his prediction number is valid but states that such may change if the current poll numbers hold a few more times. ---
**Author:** ![Sterling\_Archer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f1d935/32.png) [@Sterling\_Archer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sterling_Archer)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2014, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/600 "2014-09-29T14:46:36Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > My math was correct though. Democrats win the non-working vote pretty solidly. Which means in a 50-50 election, Republicans won the working vote. The problem is not your math, the problem is your conception of society. It’s not just working and welfare recipients. You’re forgetting students, (lean left) retirees, (heavily lean right) housewives, (lean right) the disabled. (lean left unless you live in a self-deluding heavily red state) Does military count as working? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=29) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=31)