# GOP still trending to win Senate **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2014, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426 "2014-08-13T10:52:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 33
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2014, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/641 "2014-09-30T16:30:27Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > You have failed to show that it correlates. If you want to make a factual claim (like “it correlates”), cite. None of your cite-free factual claims can be trusted. I was simply going with the logic of our little thought experiment. IF welfare recipients mostly voted Democrat, that would be a threat to our democracy if it was causal. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2014, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/642 "2014-09-30T16:37:39Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > She is about as unapologetic a liberal as we’ve seen in some time. So you’re already retracting your claim of radicalism? That was fast. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2014, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/643 "2014-09-30T16:41:46Z")
That’s radicalism in a country where only 20% of Americans self identify as liberals. It’s radicalism in a country where we haven’t had a blatantly liberal Democratic Presidential campaign since 1984, and before that, 1972. Do you really think the country has changed to the point where those 49-state losses can turn into electoral wins? ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2014, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/644 "2014-09-30T16:51:32Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Further, if it’s “all or most”, I still disagree, at least without a supporting cite. If you’re only saying that a slight majority of government aid recipients may support Democrats, then this might be more reasonable, but I’d still like to see a cite. I would bet it’s an overwhelming majority. Mostly because it stands to reason that someone who is dependent on public assistance would support the party that more strongly backs these programs, but partly because it also correlates to ethnic group voting. I don’t have a cite and am not going to look one up. If you disagree so be it. My main point here was not to establish this position but to comment on how it was impacted by the CNN poll numbers. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2014, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/645 "2014-09-30T16:54:01Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > I would bet it’s an overwhelming majority. How overwhelming? > [@](#): > > Mostly because it stands to reason that someone who is dependent on public assistance would support the party that more strongly backs these programs, but partly because it also correlates to ethnic group voting. But this is different – “dependent on public assistance” is not the same as “receives public assistance” is not the same as “welfare recipient”. Which category are you confident that an overwhelming majority supports the Democratic party? ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2014, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/646 "2014-09-30T17:15:33Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > How overwhelming? I don’t know. I would guess somewhere between 2/3 & 4/5. > [@](#): > > But this is different – “dependent on public assistance” is not the same as “receives public assistance” is not the same as “welfare recipient”. Which category are you confident that an overwhelming majority supports the Democratic party? First and third are the same in my books (I leave out programs in which the person has ostensibly paid for, e.g. SS & Medicare). ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2014, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/647 "2014-09-30T17:18:48Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > I don’t know. I would guess somewhere between 2/3 & 4/5. Okay. This doesn’t seem likely to me. If I have time, I’ll search for it. > [@](#): > > First and third are the same in my books (I leave out programs in which the person has ostensibly paid for, e.g. SS & Medicare). What about disability, farm aid, medicaid, food stamps, unemployment, and other aid and assistance? Do you consider all of this “welfare”? ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2014, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/648 "2014-09-30T17:36:45Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > What about disability, farm aid, medicaid, food stamps, unemployment, and other aid and assistance? Do you consider all of this “welfare”? I think disability and unemployment are ostensibly paid for by contributions (public disability is part of the SS system). Farm aid support seems non-partisan and is geographic based, and in any event my impression is that farm aid is a big chunk of money for the federal government but is not the primary source of income for people who are not working. Medicaid and food stamps would fit the bill, but again, the correlation would be far stronger for people who are on both of those programs plus HUD/Section 8 rental subsidies, TANF, HEAP etc. etc., rather than one specific program, and would be stronger for long term recipients than for temporary down-on-their luck people. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2014, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/649 "2014-10-01T01:51:37Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > I think the stats are a bit misleading as they’re being measured, and Adaher’s larger point is correct. > > The problem here is that SAHMs are probably more Republican than working women, and retirees are also more Republican. Both of these groups are not working full time, and skew the numbers. … > [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > I’m modifying Adaher’s claim. … Let’s keep slicing and dicing then … “The working vote” implies “the working class” to most of us I suspect. But accepted that in this context we are talking not about the unemployed of that which is often referred to as that class. But boy we can start slicing an dicing in so many ways. White Southern working class? Northeners? Evangelicals? Mainstream Protestants? Catholics? Single women? Married women? Hispanic males? Hispanic females? Whether we are discussing “full time workers” or “the working class” these are not monolithic groups that can be predicted in one or the other camp. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2014, 7:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/650 "2014-10-01T07:38:34Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Dems’ advantage: [They are " investing far more in the ground game."](http://www.salon.com/2014/09/30/midterms_digest_senate_democrats%e2%80%99_key_advantage/) …while the Republicans are focussing on advertising. This makes sense as Democrats have an off-year problem with turnout. Charlie Cook gives the Republicans [60% odds](http://www.nationaljournal.com//off-to-the-races/republicans-hold-the-advantage-in-senate-races-20140929?ref=off_to_the_races). He doesn’t have a formal model, though he is statistically literate. Given informal usage, it’s possible he really means something like 70%. 538: 58.3 Sam Wang: 51 Upshot: 67% Ave of 3: 59% ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2014, 11:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/651 "2014-10-01T11:48:55Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > But they did vote in high enough numbers to confirm two of Obama’s SCOTUS appointees. Like I said, there is peril in just blocking SCOTUS nominees because you want to wait until he’s gone. So far that’s a line you don’t cross. And I don’t want Democrats to retaliate by blocking our nominees. > > The craziness of the GOP field is vastly overrated. If you think someone like Jindal will end up being disqualified because of whatever weird religious ritual he’s into that I forget about, then remember that Nancy Reagan was influencing her husband’s Presidency using astrology. The public tolerates a little religious weirdness. > > If you’re referring to their position on the issues, then again, you’ve got radicals like Ted Cruz, but Jindal, Christie, and a few others are quite mainstream conservative. And frankly, no one optimistic about Liz Warren’s chances of being President should really throw stones at how radical the Republican field is. Hopefully, we won’t have to find out if a Republican Senate would refuse a Supreme Court appointment. Even more hopefully, any vacancies will occur in the Gang Of Four right wingers. Jindal will not be the nominee because the GOP will not nominate a minority. End of story. Christie has a good chance of living in federal housing, but not in the White House. No other potential GOP candidate other than Romney has emerged who isn’t a certified whack-a-doodle. I’m part of the who cares crowd. There are two kinds of Senates, those with 60+ Democrats and those that won’t work for the people. It’s a lead-pipe cinch we won’t get the former. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2014, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/652 "2014-10-01T13:44:13Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The craziness of the GOP field is vastly overrated. If you think someone like Jindal will end up being disqualified because of whatever weird religious ritual he’s into that I forget about, then remember that Nancy Reagan was influencing her husband’s Presidency using astrology. The public tolerates a little religious weirdness. > > If you’re referring to their position on the issues, then again, you’ve got radicals like Ted Cruz, but Jindal, Christie, and a few others are quite mainstream conservative. And frankly, no one optimistic about Liz Warren’s chances of being President should really throw stones at how radical the Republican field is. The reason you are wrong about this is that you are going by their regular craziness and not the craziness they will have to adopt to get through the Republican primaries. It doesn’t matter what their positions are now, none of them are getting the nomination without giving up their claim to sanity. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2014, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/653 "2014-10-01T14:18:58Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Jindal will not be the nominee because the GOP will not nominate a minority. End of story. But he’s Indian. The \*good \*kind of brown. A radical Christianist at that. A fine token for the #2 slot. > [@](#): > > There are two kinds of Senates, those with 60+ Democrats and those that won’t work for the people. It’s a lead-pipe cinch we won’t get the former. Even if we did, we’d still constantly need to keep them focused. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2014, 11:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/654 "2014-10-03T11:19:39Z")
Obama just handed Republicans a gift: > [@](#): > > Here are the four sentences that will draw all of the attention (they come more than two thirds of the way through the speech): “I am not on the ballot this fall. Michelle’s pretty happy about that. But make no mistake: these policies are on the ballot. Every single one of them.” Boil those four sentences down even further and here’s what you are left with: “Make no mistake: these policies are on the ballot. Every single one of them.” > > You can imagine Sen. Mark Pryor of Arkansas or Sen. Kay Hagan in North Carolina or Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky grimacing when they heard those 28 words. That trio has spent much of the campaign insisting that this election is NOT about Barack Obama, that it is instead about a choice between themselves and their opponents. [http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/10/02/28-words-that-democrats-really-wish-president-obama-didnt-say-today/](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/10/02/28-words-that-democrats-really-wish-president-obama-didnt-say-today/) ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2014, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/655 "2014-10-03T13:27:42Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Obama just handed Republicans a gift: > > [http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/10/02/28-words-that-democrats-really-wish-president-obama-didnt-say-today/](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/10/02/28-words-that-democrats-really-wish-president-obama-didnt-say-today/) I don’t think this means anything at all. The only people who pay attention to things like this are poitical junkies, all of whom already know what they think of the issues and know who they’re voting for. The uncomitted middle-of-the-road voters don’t pay attention to 4 sentences 2/3 of the way through Obama’s speeches whose only import is in that they frame issues differently than their candidate does. Thing is that a lot of political junkies don’t appreciate the extent to which other people are disinterested in these nitty-gritty political issues. Like so many other people, they overestimate the extent to which most people are similar to themselves. This leads to them misjudging the impact of matters like this. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2014, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/656 "2014-10-03T18:18:54Z")
Hm. [Nate Silver is getting into it with Princeton’s Sam Wang.](http://www.salon.com/2014/10/03/nate_silver_unloads_on_princeton_rival_in_blistering_critique/) Says Wang’s electoral-forecast model is “flawed.” ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2014, 6:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/657 "2014-10-03T18:26:58Z")
If I was Silver, I would wait until after the election to attack Wang. Because even Silver’s model shows a 40% likelihood of the Democrats holding on. And if they do, this will be (incorrectly) interpreted as vindication of Wang. On another note, I have to hedge a bit on my prior post. Apparently Republican red state candidates have begun running ads starring video of Obama saying that his policies are up for reelection. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2014, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/658 "2014-10-03T18:30:53Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > On another note, I have to hedge a bit on my prior post. Apparently Republican red state candidates have begun running ads starring video of Obama saying that his policies are up for reelection. I’d like to see those. Link? On edit: never mind. [http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/219711-gop-uses-obamas-words-on-economy-against-dems-in-new-ads](http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/219711-gop-uses-obamas-words-on-economy-against-dems-in-new-ads) ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2014, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/659 "2014-10-03T18:34:16Z")
> **[And just like that, Obama’s ‘policies are on the ballot’ comment is campaign...](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2014/10/03/and-just-like-that-obamas-policies-are-on-the-ballot-comment-is-campaign-ad-fodder/)** > > Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) is first out of the gate. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2014, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/660 "2014-10-03T18:51:27Z")
That only mentions Pat Roberts, who is a special case anyway. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=32) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=34)