# GOP still trending to win Senate

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [August 13, 2014, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426 "2014-08-13T10:52:38Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 38

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [October 10, 2014, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/741 "2014-10-10T04:41:58Z")

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Besides, show a little gratitude. Those conservative Dems made ACA possible and pretty much fell on their swords in the process. Your liberal heroes risked nothing but their majority. The moderates risked their careers.

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**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\
**Post date:** [October 10, 2014, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/742 "2014-10-10T05:37:29Z")

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Alternatively, the ACA passed because the Republicans figured it would fail, then loaded the dice to make sure that it would. They were totally sure that it would crash and burn, so they wouldn’t have to hear any more about socialized medicine for _another_ twenty years. Oopsy-daisy!

And fuck a bunch of three-legged, _menshevik_, “centrist”, “business-friendly”, Clintonista, Blue dead dog jackals of the ruling class!

That whole comedy was about sucking up to business, get some of that sweet corporate donations that the Republican had been snouting forever. Hence, the Turd Way of the Clintonistas, Republican Lite, in favor of “innovation” and “creative new ideas” for the financial sector, freeing business from burdensome regulation. Never mind pulling away the punch bowl just when Jane from Accounting takes off her pantyhose, pour in a quart of Everclear and let 'er _rip!_

The rise of the rabid baboon Palinspawn damaged Blue Dog Dems, but its murdering the Republican “leadership”, the guys who work for the guys who own America, who sit behind the man who works the Soft Machine. But that deal broke down, they aren’t in charge any more. The goobers have taken over.

Blue Dogs lost because it became impossible to pander to both sides at the same time because they were too far apart, to kiss both sets of ass at the same time requires the twenty foot neck and prehensile tongue of the giraffe!

(The animal, not the doper, not casting any asparagus here, love ya, guy, c ya in Hell…)

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [October 10, 2014, 7:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/743 "2014-10-10T07:22:51Z")

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Problem is, without the Blue Dogs, Democrats can’t ever hold Congress.

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**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\
**Post date:** [October 10, 2014, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/744 "2014-10-10T13:36:24Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> Somehow I doubt Mark Pryor, Mary Landrieu, Kay Hagan, and Mark Begich are getting fired

So do I. 😉

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**Author:** ![TheSeaOtter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ed655f/32.png) [@TheSeaOtter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheSeaOtter)\
**Post date:** [October 10, 2014, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/745 "2014-10-10T15:59:52Z")

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> [@elucidator](#):
>
> And fuck a bunch of three-legged, _menshevik_, “centrist”, “business-friendly”, Clintonista, Blue dead dog jackals of the ruling class!
> 
> That whole comedy was about sucking up to business, get some of that sweet corporate donations that the Republican had been snouting forever. Hence, the Turd Way of the Clintonistas, Republican Lite, in favor of “innovation” and “creative new ideas” for the financial sector, freeing business from burdensome regulation. Never mind pulling away the punch bowl just when Jane from Accounting takes off her pantyhose, pour in a quart of Everclear and let 'er _rip!_
> 
> The rise of the rabid baboon Palinspawn damaged Blue Dog Dems, but its murdering the Republican “leadership”, the guys who work for the guys who own America, who sit behind the man who works the Soft Machine. But that deal broke down, they aren’t in charge any more. The goobers have taken over.
> 
> Blue Dogs lost because it became impossible to pander to both sides at the same time because they were too far apart, to kiss both sets of ass at the same time requires the twenty foot neck and prehensile tongue of the giraffe!

What the heck did I just read?

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**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\
**Post date:** [October 10, 2014, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/746 "2014-10-10T16:11:26Z")

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> [@TheSeaOtter](#):
>
> What the heck did I just read?

**Elucidator** isn’t wrong, he’s just been overly colorful.

So, until the 2010 midterms, there were a number of conservative Democrats in conservative districts, known as Blue Dog Democrats. This sort of politician is both annoying to the base (many more liberal Democrats consider the Blue Dogs as at best a necessary evil; the Tea Party wing of the GOP is very fond of the term RINO as an attack) and easily put into trouble. It’s seen more with the Democrats as history has shown over and over that the public will vote for a Republican over a Republican-lite Blue Dog, especially in a wave election like 2010.

So, the Blue Dogs have a reputation of making the final ACA worse because negotiations had to be between both wings of the Democrats plus attempting to please the Republicans. That, plus the 2010 losses means that there are very few left in Congress.

On the other side, the rise of the Tea Party has really hamstrung the Republican leadership because they can be so hardline and unpredictable. I’d much rather have been Pelosi dealing with the Blue Dogs than Boehner dealing with the Tea Party.

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**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [October 10, 2014, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/747 "2014-10-10T18:12:15Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> Why do you think Blue Dogs, a pretty important part of the party before 2010, are in danger of extinction?

Because almost all the racist and/or conservative Dems have long since migrated to the GOP. And taken it over. The party of Abraham Lincoln is now the party of Jefferson Davis.

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**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\
**Post date:** [October 10, 2014, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/748 "2014-10-10T19:37:58Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> If a state got that bad, then sure, there’d be an argument for the feds to step in. No state is that bad. Mississippi, our poorest state, enjoys a median income around that of Sweden’s. No state is on the verge of third world status, or even particularly poor first world status.

Income is the wrong metric, you should look at quality of life. If you think the quality of life in Mississippi is anywhere close to Sweden, you’ve never been to Mississippi.

[http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/countries/sweden/](http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/countries/sweden/)  
[http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/countries/united-states/](http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/countries/united-states/)

Sweeden is better than the US in general, and Mississippi is at the bottom of the US.

> [@](#):
>
> The problem we actually have is that the federal government is failing to protect Wyoming from an influx of refugees from outside the US who supposedly, the federal government doesn’t even want here. When the feds can do their actual job well, they can tell Wyoming how to do theirs.

First off, conservatives don’t actually want to do anything about undocumented workers. They gin it up for racist points, but they don’t pass laws that would impact businesses hiring them.

Second off, the border is more secure under Obama than it was during the Bush administration.

Third off, the two things have nothing whatsoever to do with one another.

> [@](#):
>
> I concede there are many issues where federal action has been beneficial. But when the federal government starts doing things that have the states talking about non-cooperation or even nullification, then unless basic civil rights are at stake, the federal government should really demonstrate some humility. Things like COmmon Core, ACA, Real ID, gun control, etc. are issues that have caused a lot of hard feelings in a lot of states and none of it was really necessary.

The ACA has gotten healthcare for millions of people. Millions. Without it, Republican Governors would still be doing nothing, because the GOP doesn’t want anyone’s profit margin to go down, even if real human misery and death is the alternative.

> [@](#):
>
> The feds have become arrogant enough to think they know what’s best in all circumstances, even areas where states have been doing a better job than the feds to begin with.

Producing an American citizen who thinks magic makes babies is a real issue. We need, in order to compete in the world, have a science curricula that can’t be left to snake handlers and people who think the bible is the only textbook necessary.

> [@](#):
>
> Does the federal government have a record of doing education better than the states? Has federal involvement improved educational outcomes? Were states not trying to deliver health care to their citizens? Even many red state like Tennessee and Indiana were experimenting with improvements to their health care systems, and of course what happened in Massachusetts is well documented.

And they were failing utterly (except for Romney Care, which is all but identical to the ACA). Feel free to compare their results with the ACA. But maybe you should do it in another thread?

> [@](#):
>
> There was no urgent need for a federal solution that justified pissing off so many states.

A 2009 American Journal of Public Health study says 45 thousand of your countrymen were dying needlessly, and countless more suffering because our system was so broken. The GOP didn’t care enough to attempt a fix other than the prescription drug giveaway. It was a problem that needed to be fixed. If the people you care about weren’t suffering, it doesn’t mean that the suffering that was happening doesn’t matter.

> [@](#):
>
> Real ID I hope everyone now realizes is stupid. Ditto for federal gun control.

Most people want gun control, in the form of background checks. The GOP doesn’t care.

> [@](#):
>
> Labor laws are fine if we’ve got major problems and the states aren’t doing anything about it and it’s interstate commerce. But most states now have minimum wage laws. Is there really a need for a federal minimum wage at this point? Not that I really care, because the federal minimum wage doesn’t cause widespread anger. My beef on this subject has more to do with trying to commandeer state governments to do the feds’ bidding, and doing it in such a way that it affects how locals live their lives.

There needs to be a floor, below which you can’t fall, otherwise, the GOP will institute a race to the bottom.

> [@](#):
>
> The way ACA was written, it was designed to coerce. States would lose ALL Medicaid funding if they didn’t expand the program.

How is that support your suggestion that the SCOTUS said, “The federal government shouldn’t be telling the states how to deliver health care.”

C’mon, bro.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\
**Post date:** [October 10, 2014, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/749 "2014-10-10T20:47:54Z")

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> [@elucidator](#):
>
> Alternatively, the ACA passed because the Republicans figured it would fail, then loaded the dice to make sure that it would.

ACA passed without a single Republican vote in Congress.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\
**Post date:** [October 10, 2014, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/750 "2014-10-10T20:49:56Z")

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> [@elucidator](#):
>
> Alternatively, the ACA passed because the Republicans figured it would fail, then loaded the dice to make sure that it would. They were totally sure that it would crash and burn, so they wouldn’t have to hear any more about socialized medicine for _another_ twenty years. Oopsy-daisy!
> 
> And fuck a bunch of three-legged, _menshevik_, “centrist”, “business-friendly”, Clintonista, Blue dead dog jackals of the ruling class!
> 
> That whole comedy was about sucking up to business, get some of that sweet corporate donations that the Republican had been snouting forever. Hence, the Turd Way of the Clintonistas, Republican Lite, in favor of “innovation” and “creative new ideas” for the financial sector, freeing business from burdensome regulation. Never mind pulling away the punch bowl just when Jane from Accounting takes off her pantyhose, pour in a quart of Everclear and let 'er _rip!_
> 
> The rise of the rabid baboon Palinspawn damaged Blue Dog Dems, but its murdering the Republican “leadership”, the guys who work for the guys who own America, who sit behind the man who works the Soft Machine. But that deal broke down, they aren’t in charge any more. The goobers have taken over.
> 
> Blue Dogs lost because it became impossible to pander to both sides at the same time because they were too far apart, to kiss both sets of ass at the same time requires the twenty foot neck and prehensile tongue of the giraffe!

I’m thoroughly confused…but also entertained. 🙂

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [October 11, 2014, 7:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/751 "2014-10-11T07:24:49Z")

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Newspaper endorsements are rarely a big deal, but in a race this close it might be the end for Udall:

> **[Cory Gardner for U.S. Senate](https://www.denverpost.com/2014/10/10/cory-gardner-for-u-s-senate/)**
>
> Cory Gardner for U.S. Senate

Denver Post endorses Gardner.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [October 11, 2014, 7:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/752 "2014-10-11T07:27:49Z")

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> [@](#):
>
> Rather than run on his record, Udall’s campaign has devoted a shocking amount of energy and money trying to convince voters that Gardner seeks to outlaw birth control despite the congressman’s call for over-the-counter sales of contraceptives. Udall is trying to frighten voters rather than inspire them with a hopeful vision. His obnoxious one-issue campaign is an insult to those he seeks to convince.

I read somewhere else they are starting to call him Sen. Uterus.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [October 11, 2014, 7:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/753 "2014-10-11T07:29:09Z")

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Duplicate post.

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**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [October 12, 2014, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/754 "2014-10-12T03:32:47Z")

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Virginia may not be such a sure thing anymore: October Surprise!

> **[Warner discussed job for Puckett’s daughter](https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/warner-discussed-job-for-pucketts-daughter/2014/10/10/8fb21b3c-50b7-11e4-babe-e91da079cb8a_story.html)**
>
> A federal judgeship was part of a discussion aimed at preventing the state senator from quitting.

Warner’s one of the good guys, but Democrats have been willing to do just about anything to help the health care law out and it looks like Warner might have crossed an ethical line here, as well as the governor.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\
**Post date:** [October 12, 2014, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/755 "2014-10-12T03:48:54Z")

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> [@adaher](#):
>
> Virginia may not be such a sure thing anymore: October Surprise!
> 
> [http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/warner-discussed-job-for-pucketts-daughter/2014/10/10/8fb21b3c-50b7-11e4-babe-e91da079cb8a\_story.html](http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/warner-discussed-job-for-pucketts-daughter/2014/10/10/8fb21b3c-50b7-11e4-babe-e91da079cb8a_story.html)
> 
> Warner’s one of the good guys, but Democrats have been willing to do just about anything to help the health care law out and it looks like Warner might have crossed an ethical line here, as well as the governor.

Speaking as a VA voter, I doubt this will make much of a difference. Warner is quite popular. If frickin’ McAuliffe can win in Virginia, Warner won’t have much of a problem.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [October 12, 2014, 4:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/756 "2014-10-12T04:05:29Z")

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I’d be inclined to agree, but in a wave year, even some good guys can get taken down. Ask Russ Feingold.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\
**Post date:** [October 12, 2014, 11:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/757 "2014-10-12T11:43:31Z")

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You must have a unique definition of a wave if you think 2014 is wave year.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\
**Post date:** [October 12, 2014, 11:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/758 "2014-10-12T11:56:44Z")

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If Warner loses, it’s officially a wave year.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\
**Post date:** [October 12, 2014, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/759 "2014-10-12T15:07:46Z")

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Doggone it, adaher, you can’t take a month off from here if the GOP loses big this year. I’d miss you too much. I can’t wait to hear your predictions of red glory for 2016.

I’m more confident that the Dems will hang onto the Senate. Much will depend on turnout and Republican-orchestrated voter suppression, but I’m seeing the marginal states stay or turn blue.

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<div class="post-metadata">

**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\
**Post date:** [October 12, 2014, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/760 "2014-10-12T16:05:03Z")

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Shit, there are more wild cards in the deck than there are normal cards. Will voter suppression trim off just enough minority voters to make the difference, or will they get so pissed off they are willing to stand for hours just to say so? Who the hell knows? And what about Obama’s pro-Ebola stance?

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