# GOP still trending to win Senate **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2014, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426 "2014-08-13T10:52:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 39
**Author:** ![Randvek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/a6a055/32.png) [@Randvek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Randvek)\ **Post date:** [October 12, 2014, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/761 "2014-10-12T23:15:01Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Doggone it, adaher, you can’t take a month off from here if the GOP loses big this year. I’d miss you too much. I can’t wait to hear your predictions of red glory for 2016. > > I’m more confident that the Dems will hang onto the Senate. Much will depend on turnout and Republican-orchestrated voter suppression, but I’m seeing the marginal states stay or turn blue. Sadly, the chances of his team taking a beating like it did in 2012 are pretty close to zero. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 12:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/762 "2014-10-13T00:22:25Z")
> [@Randvek](#): > > Sadly, the chances of his team taking a beating like it did in 2012 are pretty close to zero. If the GOP fails to take the Senate this year, it can only be seen as a resounding repudiation. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/763 "2014-10-13T01:52:20Z")
That’s one way to spin it. A more accurate spin would be that Republicans fail to take advantage of political environments where they should win. It’s hard to call an election where you win more votes than your opponents a repudiation. If Republicans fail to take the Senate and lose the popular vote, then we can talk about repudiation. But if they fall short just because of a couple of independent runs, that’s not repudiation, that’s just a sign that the GOP doesn’t have its shit together. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 6:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/764 "2014-10-13T06:20:48Z")
Ok, so the race is a tossup - too close to call. If the Republicans keep the House and take the Senate expect some changes. Direct attacks on the Affordable Care Act will be met with Democratic filibuster and Presidential veto. But what about other methods? What sort of opportunities will Republican victory create for our fellow Illuminati members? Goldman Sachs economist [Alec Phillips](http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/10/goldman-on-2015-potential-renewed.html) predicts more budget fights. Budgets can pass with a 51 vote majority in the Senate via reconciliation, so they are not vulnerable to Democratic filibuster. Around major fiscal deadlines, expect brinkmanship: “Since the confrontation between House Republicans and the White House over the debt limit in 2011, markets have gradually become inured to fiscal brinksmanship, as these debates have started to follow a predictable pattern. If Republicans win majorities in both chambers… that pattern seems likely to change, which could lead to renewed uncertainty ahead of future fiscal deadlines.” C is Chaos, the Flaming Star is the Torch of Reason. The general plan is good, though in the detail there may be faults. _Theodor zum guten Rath._ ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 8:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/765 "2014-10-13T08:39:44Z")
The fiscal fights should be more like the later Clinton years. There’s no point in either side picking a fight in Obama’s last two years. The Republicans are simply likely to enforce the sequester and Obama will have to sign such bills while complaining about them. After all, the sequester was his idea in the first place. ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 9:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/766 "2014-10-13T09:00:41Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The fiscal fights should be more like the later Clinton years. There’s no point in either side picking a fight in Obama’s last two years. The Republicans are simply likely to enforce the sequester and Obama will have to sign such bills while complaining about them. After all, the sequester was his idea in the first place. One might mention that it was supposed to be something that neither side was willing to do, to force them to work to a compromise. But then, it turns out that the GOP is so anti-compromise they drank the poison and smiled. So flippantly parroting the FOX News soundbite leaves a bit of context out. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 9:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/767 "2014-10-13T09:49:30Z")
Except the sequester isn’t a huge problem. If we can’t even cut spending by that small amount then we might as well raise tax rates to 90% for everyone making over $30,000 a year right now. ---
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 9:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/768 "2014-10-13T09:58:06Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > Ok, so the race is a tossup - too close to call. If the Republicans keep the House and take the Senate expect some changes. > > Direct attacks on the Affordable Care Act will be met with Democratic filibuster and Presidential veto. Thanks to Harry Reid’s precedent, no worry about a filibuster. I seriously doubt that the Republicans would hesitate to eliminate the filibuster on legislation. One raw power grab deserves another. Then if the Republicans have the House and Senate then Obama will have to veto ACA repeal(s). ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 11:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/769 "2014-10-13T11:31:47Z")
Most of ACA can be repealed through reconciliation. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 11:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/770 "2014-10-13T11:42:52Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Most of ACA can be repealed through reconciliation. It can also be vetoed. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 11:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/771 "2014-10-13T11:45:54Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That’s one way to spin it. A more accurate spin would be that Republicans fail to take advantage of political environments where they should win. It’s hard to call an election where you win more votes than your opponents a repudiation. If Republicans fail to take the Senate and lose the popular vote, then we can talk about repudiation. But if they fall short just because of a couple of independent runs, that’s not repudiation, that’s just a sign that the GOP doesn’t have its shit together. Can we talk about repudiation in 2012 when Democrats got more House votes than the Republicans although gerrymandering kept the gavel in Boehner’s orange hands? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/772 "2014-10-13T14:36:36Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Most of ACA can be repealed through reconciliation. Is \*that \*when we finally get to see the Republican replacement program? Or do they have to pass it first? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/773 "2014-10-13T15:33:16Z")
> [@Iggy](#): > > Thanks to Harry Reid’s precedent, no worry about a filibuster. I seriously doubt that the Republicans would hesitate to eliminate the filibuster on legislation. I would. They know they can’t overturn a presidential veto and, if the Democrats retake the Senate in 2016 then the “no more filibusters on legislation” seal has already been broken and the GOP can’t complain when Democrats start passing all their Senate bills with a simple majority vote. After all, it was McConnell who eliminated it. There’s zero benefit and a ton of drawbacks. ---
**Author:** ![BigAppleBucky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigapplebucky/32/178_2.png) [@BigAppleBucky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigAppleBucky)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/774 "2014-10-13T18:08:16Z")
Consequences of losing: > [@](#): > > Mitch McConnell has announced that if he gets the majority in the Senate, his first objective is to repeal healthcare and his second is to roll back the financial reforms, and in particular to target the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau — the one agency that’s out there for American families, the one that has returned more than four billion dollars to families who got cheated by big financial institutions. That’s in just three years. [Warren interview in Salon](http://www.salon.com/2014/10/12/exclusive_elizabeth_warren_on_barack_obama_they_protected_wall_street_not_families_who_were_losing_their_homes_not_people_who_lost_their_jobs_and_it_happened_over_and_over_and_over/) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 6:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/775 "2014-10-13T18:16:28Z")
The President can veto all of that. So what’s the consequence? ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/776 "2014-10-13T19:23:53Z")
What’s the _point_? ---
**Author:** ![42fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/b487fb/32.png) [@42fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/42fish)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/777 "2014-10-13T20:16:11Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The fiscal fights should be more like the later Clinton years. There’s no point in either side picking a fight in Obama’s last two years. Since one side consists of the “Yay, we’ve shut down the government! Wait, what are trying to get out of this move anyway?” people, the fact that it would be pointless hardly guarantees it won’t happen again. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 13, 2014, 8:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/778 "2014-10-13T20:54:57Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The President can veto all of that. So what’s the consequence? Under pre-2008 or pre-1995 norms, not much. But remember: Republicans have a newly acquired taste for holding the economy hostage when it’s not an election year. So expect fiscal brinksmanship. As Goldman Sachs notes, it will play out differently when strong effective leaders like Harry Reid are in the minority. Remember: Cruz et al are nutbars. Within the Republican mind-space neuro-typical approaches mark you as a RINO and will send you packing in favor of somebody with a more hysterical temperament. To succeed as a high profile Washington Republican you either need to be crazy or simulate crazy. Otherwise, goodbye. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2014, 5:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/779 "2014-10-14T05:07:47Z")
They learned their lesson. They want to win in 2016. They may still screw up, but it won’t be in the obvious way. There won’t be anymore shutdowns, although it wouldn’t surprise me if they threaten one to see if they can make Obama blink. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [October 14, 2014, 5:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/780 "2014-10-14T05:39:46Z")
Conservatives are also hot for war in the Middle East. Can you shut down the government and still have one? I mean, our soldiers are patriots and trend conservative, but I wonder how they’ll feel when their loved ones write the about losing their homes, having trouble keeping their utilities on, etc., when there are no paychecks forthcoming. Might start wondering what they are fighting for … certainly, WHO they’re fighting for … and don’t forget all those corporate welfare queens … gonna be pissed … [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=38) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=40)