# GOP still trending to win Senate **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2014, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426 "2014-08-13T10:52:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 41
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2014, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/801 "2014-10-15T18:03:38Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > An ultra-close election, was it? If my memory is correct. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 15, 2014, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/802 "2014-10-15T21:52:27Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > A wager, maybe? $100 to favorite charity says Republicans will wind up in control of the Senate (may have to wait till January until things settle? Currently I believe the race is a tossup. So if anybody is willing to give me 6:1 odds (Dem or Repub), I’d consider a bet. (Well I would, except that I’m uncomfortable with SDMB online bets - too much wrangling. Bricker proposed a system with humiliatingly candid post signatures in the Wisconsin thread which might work.) ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/803 "2014-10-16T00:00:29Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Ummmm, they haven’t shut down the government and have passed spending bills without so much as making a fuss. Other than 12 months ago? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/804 "2014-10-16T02:16:54Z")
Donna Brazile with a great op-ed about how Democrats make a mistake by running against Obama: > **[Democrats who run from Obama take a risk | CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/15/opinion/brazile-democrats-who-abandon-obama/index.html?hpt=op_t1)** > > Candidates who run from President Obama in red states where he is unpopular are making a big mistake, says Donna Brazile > [@](#): > > Democratic candidates who run from President Obama in red states where he is unpopular are making a big mistake. Their holding Obama at arm’s length deprives voters of a clear choice at the ballot box. I’ve never really understood why they do this myself. There was a time when party members were more independent and that time might eventually return. But in 2014, party members nearly always support their leaders on the big votes and only vote against if the party already has the votes it needs. It’s a shell game and by now the voters have to know it, don’t they? Pryor, Grimes, Nunn, Begich, Udall, Shaheen, Hagan, all of these Senators will vote the way Obama and Reid want 97% of the time, and the 3% of the time they won’t will be when their votes are not needed. ---
**Author:** ![DoctorJ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/doctorj/32/2904_2.png) [@DoctorJ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DoctorJ)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/805 "2014-10-16T05:03:07Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > On the other hand Democrats have cut bait on Kentucky and canceled their ad buys. I don’t think they’ve necessarily “cut bait”. Grimes has a fair bit of cash on hand, probably plenty to get through the end. Plus both candidates have been carpet-bombing the airwaves for so long that it’s hard to imagine anyone persuadable by commercials who hasn’t been persuaded yet. Grimes can still win if everything goes right for her in the ground game, but there’s probably nothing she can spend money on to help her right this minute. Meanwhile there are plenty of places where the Democrat is surging right now and that money could go a long way. ---
**Author:** ![CaptMurdock](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/captmurdock/32/11736_2.png) [@CaptMurdock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CaptMurdock)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/806 "2014-10-16T05:09:03Z")
> [@Jophiel](#): > > On the other hand Democrats have cut bait on Kentucky and canceled their ad buys. [Not so fast, there, sparky](http://www.politicususa.com/2014/10/15/no-dscc-pull-kentucky-senate-race-abandon-alison-lundergan-grimes.html) > [@](#): > > Unlike the national Republican Party pulling out of Michigan because their candidate is such a fail, the national Democratic Party is not abandoning Alison Lundergan Grimes (D-KY) just because they are moving a lot of ad money to other races. They are investing in the unprecedented ground game in Kentucky. Investing is the opposite of pulling out. Basically, they’re putting money into GOTV rather than ads. And they’ve already bought a lot of ads. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 5:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/807 "2014-10-16T05:26:18Z")
> [@DoctorJ](#): > > I don’t think they’ve necessarily “cut bait”. Grimes has a fair bit of cash on hand, probably plenty to get through the end. Plus both candidates have been carpet-bombing the airwaves for so long that it’s hard to imagine anyone persuadable by commercials who hasn’t been persuaded yet. > > Grimes can still win if everything goes right for her in the ground game, but there’s probably nothing she can spend money on to help her right this minute. > > Meanwhile there are plenty of places where the Democrat is surging right now and that money could go a long way. The only place the Democrat is surging is Georgia. In SD the Democrat is now in contention, but not because the Democrat has gained support, but because Rounds has lost support to Pressler. In all other races, the Republican has slightly improved his or her standing since two weeks ago or stayed the same. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 5:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/808 "2014-10-16T05:55:44Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > A-a-a-and … [Georgia](http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/10/15/1336735/-Michelle-Nunn-leads-proud-outsourcer-David-Perdue-in-latest-poll?detail=hide) is trending Demward now too. It’s ridiculous that it’s even close. Georgia under Republican leadership has the HIGHEST UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN THE FRICKING NATION! Higher than Mississippi’s. Higher than Louisiana’s. Higher than Alabama’s. Higher than ANYBODY’S. Under those circumstances Democrats should be able to run a team of gay Muslim atheist crack addicts against the governor and both Senators and win handily. But nooooo … Georgia is merely TRENDING Democratic in one Senate race … ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 7:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/809 "2014-10-16T07:05:40Z")
Take heart. Illinois should be throwing out Democrats, but it might not happen there either. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 7:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/810 "2014-10-16T07:17:58Z")
What’s cool is that the Republicans can now lose McConnell and Georgia and still have a path to the majority. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 7:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/811 "2014-10-16T07:23:30Z")
Very interesting fact from Sam Wang: three weeks out, candidates that lead by 3 points lose 38% of the time. > **[No, Republicans Aren't Guaranteed to Win the Senate. Here's Why.](https://newrepublic.com/article/119844/2014-midterm-predictions-republicans-not-guaranteed-win-senate)** > > For election nerds, these midterms are Christmas. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/812 "2014-10-16T17:24:27Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > What’s cool is that the Republicans can now lose McConnell and Georgia and still have a path to the majority. With which you hope they would accomplish \*what \*exactly? Enough repeal-Obamacare votes to reach a round 100, yes, but what else? In your own words, please, \*why \*do you hope for a Republican majority? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/813 "2014-10-16T18:53:22Z")
You continue to forget that Republicans are loyal patriots, who always rally around the Commander in Chief in a time of crisis. Here it comes! Any minute now… ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/814 "2014-10-16T19:54:23Z")
I’d be happy just to know there’s a larger purpose involved than “Yay Team!” ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/815 "2014-10-16T23:51:44Z")
Because I think they are more likely to work together if Congress isn’t divided. The Republicans and Democrats were just letting each others’ legislation die in the other chamber. Now legislation will actually reach the President’s desk, and any negotiations will be just between the Republican leadership and the President. Pelosi and Reid can pretty much be cut out. So if Obama does actually want to cut entitlements as part of a grand bargain to secure his legacy, then he doesn’t have to worry about Democratic legislators anymore. We can also get real immigration reform done now. The President won’t refuse to sign a bill that has tougher border security first, as long as it legalizes the nation’s undocumented population at some point in the process. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2014, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/816 "2014-10-17T00:04:14Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The President won’t refuse to sign a bill that has tougher border security first, as long as it legalizes the nation’s undocumented population at some point in the process. The President will veto any bill that doesn’t have a path to _citizenship_, not just legalization. And he certainly won’t sign a bill that is mostly border fences and laser drones. He may not owe anything to Pelosi and Reid, but he certainly realizes the power of the growing Latino electorate; if it looks like he gives away the hacienda, it would squander a chance to cut the GOP off at the knees for a generation. He is not going to be any more willing to deal with Boehner than Reid and Pelosi, perhaps even less so. I foresee a record number of vetoes if the Republicans steal the Senate. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2014, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/817 "2014-10-17T00:15:06Z")
If the President refuses to sign a border security bill, the Democratic Presidential nominee will have to explain why Democrats are opposed to border security. Enforcing the law is not a compromise and if Democrats are holding out promises of enforcement only if they get something in exchange, that’s not politically tenable. It would be like Republicans promising only to enforce our tax laws if they got a tax amnesty for current evaders. Besides, isn’t it your own argument and the argument of most liberals that Obama is too eager to compromise? That he’s only been held back by Republican intransigence? Well, we’ll get to test that if Republicans control all of Congress. Especially on an issue like immigration, where there isn’t an intransigence on new taxes holding things up. Obama wants a “tough” path to citizenship? I’m sure they can put one in the bill that makes all current undocumented pay stiff fines and going to the back of the line and having to account for any crimes they committed in order to get a false identity, along with learning English. All of those concepts, in theory, are supported by the Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2014, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/818 "2014-10-17T00:32:36Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It would be like Republicans promising only to enforce our tax laws if they got a tax amnesty for current evaders. This ignores the political reality of the mathematics of growth of legal latino voters, immigration reform or no. The Republican plan will alienate them for a generation, the Democratic plan will attract them. Recognizing that is not the same as amnesty for criminals. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2014, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/819 "2014-10-17T01:23:32Z")
Forget the enforcement problem, the Republicans are going to seal the borders against the Obambola virus! Shoot down the international flights, torpedo the cruise boats, an electrified fence from El Paso to San Diego with a moat and rabid crocodiles with friggin’ laser beams… But not Canada. That border is _way_ too big, wouldn’t be practical. Anyway, Canadians are healthier, so not so much a problem. Plus, they speak English. Sorta. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2014, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/820 "2014-10-17T02:30:15Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > This ignores the political reality of the mathematics of growth of legal latino voters, immigration reform or no. The Republican plan will alienate them for a generation, the Democratic plan will attract them. Recognizing that is not the same as amnesty for criminals. So it’s politics, I get it. But politics cuts both ways. Latinos may want us to stop enforcing our immigration laws, but the other 85% of the country wants better enforcement. I kinda like the politics for the GOP here. Plus they are right as a matter of rule of law. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=40) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=42)