# GOP still trending to win Senate **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2014, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426 "2014-08-13T10:52:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 48
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2014, 1:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/941 "2014-10-24T01:08:21Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > The post I quoted was an example of Democrats being “data driven?” On August 14th, the chances of the GOP controlling the next Senate were fairly described by the then-extant data as “forget about it?” CaptMurdock, who let’s face it isn’t especially representative of the posting here, was operating in a tossup environment, unlike today. Besides I agree with him. I mean I’d _like_ to forget about the Republican’s chances in the Senate if only to aid in my quiescence, but love of country forces me to remain observant of the hard cold facts. What? ## Posters clicking [here](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=17639364&postcount=64) may have differing interpretations of CaptMurdoch’s statement. Void where prohibited. In other news, Nate thinks that the road to Democratic Senate control [runs through Georgia](http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-democrats-path-of-last-resort-is-georgia/). While there is admittedly more than one path, Georgia appears to be the tossup 51st state, as it were. I say that success in Georgia and Kentucky would be a resounding moral victory for the Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2014, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/942 "2014-10-24T02:28:12Z")
> [@BlankSlate](#): > > Ironically, republicans taking the senate increases the chances of a democrat taking the white house in 2016. The mere idea of the crazies in charge of all three branches will scare the shit out of the electorate. Get used to gridlock everyone, it’s probably for the best. My fear is the the Great Uniter will sign some bills into laws he should veto. Remember Trianuglatin’ Bill Clinton signing Glass-Steagall out of existence? Republican Idea=Bad Idea does not translate in the Beltway. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2014, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/943 "2014-10-24T02:31:18Z")
> [@BlankSlate](#): > > Ironically, republicans taking the senate increases the chances of a democrat taking the white house in 2016. **The mere idea of the crazies in charge of all three branches will scare the shit out of the electorate.** Get used to gridlock everyone, it’s probably for the best. Then why didn’t it stop Bush from getting reelected in 2004? ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2014, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/944 "2014-10-24T02:36:20Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > In other news, Nate thinks that the road to Democratic Senate control [runs through Georgia](http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-democrats-path-of-last-resort-is-georgia/). While there is admittedly more than one path, Georgia appears to be the tossup 51st state, as it were. I say that success in Georgia and Kentucky would be a resounding moral victory for the Democrats. As much as I’d hate for the Democrats to lose control of the Senate, if they somehow managed to boot Yertle at the same time I’d take it as somewhat of a moral victory. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2014, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/945 "2014-10-24T03:07:20Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > This is the GOP you’re talking about, right? The unfortunate fact that even adaher cannot deny. > [@](#): > > Not that your hyperbole is close to reality, but yes. When the alternative is the GOP, yes, black Democrats will continue to be Democrats. Of course they will. But will they turn out, or return to their moribund turnout levels of the past? The African-American community is constantly complaining that they are ignored by the Democrats and even under Obama that hasn’t changed. They don’t have to vote Republican to hurt the Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2014, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/946 "2014-10-24T03:12:52Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > My fear is the the Great Uniter will sign some bills into laws he should veto. Remember Trianuglatin’ Bill Clinton signing Glass-Steagall out of existence? Republican Idea=Bad Idea does not translate in the Beltway. I think he’s a vicious partisan, but this is one case where I’d love to be wrong. Although it’s hard to predict how these things will turn out. Elections are a zero sum game, but politics outside of elections is not. If the Republicans and Obama actually get stuff done together, that will raise the approval ratings of both parties heading into 2016. Glass-Steagall repeal is a bad example though. Clinton didn’t sign it because he was triangulating, he signed it because it was considered the obvious thing to do at the time. It passed overwhelmingly. Welfare reform and shrinking government are better examples of Clinton triangulating. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2014, 12:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/947 "2014-10-24T12:25:46Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Of course they will. But will they turn out, or return to their moribund turnout levels of the past? The African-American community is constantly complaining that they are ignored by the Democrats and even under Obama that hasn’t changed. They don’t have to vote Republican to hurt the Democrats. Lately, Republican actions have been driving black turnout to some degree. As long as Republicans do things that disproportionately hurt black people – like the egregious voter ID requirements – the Democrats probably won’t have to do much to get them to turnout. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2014, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/948 "2014-10-24T14:25:51Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I think he’s a vicious partisan, but this is one case where I’d love to be wrong. Although it’s hard to predict how these things will turn out. Elections are a zero sum game, but politics outside of elections is not. If the Republicans and Obama actually get stuff done together, that will raise the approval ratings of both parties heading into 2016. > > Glass-Steagall repeal is a bad example though. Clinton didn’t sign it because he was triangulating, he signed it because it was considered the obvious thing to do at the time. It passed overwhelmingly. Welfare reform and shrinking government are better examples of Clinton triangulating. The triangulating involved negotiating positions that would get both parties to agree to legislation. In the case of repealing Glass-Stegall, it involved changes to the law involving redlining by banks that the Democrats wanted. It was back in the day when Democrats and Republicans did this thing called “negotiating” to get legislation passed. It’s also another little drop in the bucket of evidence that on economic issues, there is VERY little daylight between the Republicans and “centrist” Democrats. They all get their money from the same Wall Street firms, after all. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2014, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/949 "2014-10-24T14:58:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Glass-Steagall repeal is a bad example though. Clinton didn’t sign it because he was triangulating, he signed it because it was considered the obvious thing to do at the time. Interesting use of the passive voice, “it was considered.” I think the repeal was “obvious” only to those who reject all centrist or left-of-center thought. Am I wrong that [the repeal got a Yea vote from only a SINGLE Democratic Senator (Fritz Hollings)](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/106-1999/s105)? I don’t know what opinion was across a range of economists, but one Nobel Laureate who has served as chief economist of the World Bank and Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers said: [QUOTE=Joseph Stiglitz, quoted at www pbs org/wgbh/pages/frontline/warning/interviews/stiglitz.html] The next issue that came very much to the fore was the issue of repealed Glass-Steagall Act. While I was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, that didn’t go through. It happened after I left. I opposed it very strongly. [/QUOTE] ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2014, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/950 "2014-10-24T15:06:56Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Interesting use of the passive voice, “it was considered.” I think the repeal was “obvious” only to those who reject all centrist or left-of-center thought. Am I wrong that [the repeal got a Yea vote from only a SINGLE Democratic Senator (Fritz Hollings)](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/106-1999/s105)? Yes, you are wrong. From [here](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gramm%E2%80%93Leach%E2%80%93Bliley_Act): > [@](#): > > The bill then moved to a joint conference committee to work out the differences between the Senate and House versions. Democrats agreed to support the bill after Republicans agreed to strengthen provisions of the anti-redlining Community Reinvestment Act and address certain privacy concerns; the conference committee then finished its work by the beginning of November.[12][15] On November 4, the final bill resolving the differences was passed by the Senate 90–8,[16][note 4] and by the House 362–57.[17][note 5] The legislation was signed into law by President Bill Clinton on November 12, 1999.[18] I think you may be referring to the vote instructing the conference committee to add privacy and anti-redlining provisions to the bill. The triangulation, in short. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2014, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/951 "2014-10-24T15:12:49Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > It’s also another little drop in the bucket of evidence that on economic issues, there is VERY little daylight between the Republicans and “centrist” Democrats. That should be “ **some** economic issues.” For instance, even most centrist Dems are in favor of increasing the minimum wage, but Republicans are increasingly opposed to the very _idea_ of a minimum wage. Buckets of daylight between them on this one. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2014, 4:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/952 "2014-10-24T16:05:35Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Lately, Republican actions have been driving black turnout to some degree. As long as Republicans do things that disproportionately hurt black people – like the egregious voter ID requirements – the Democrats probably won’t have to do much to get them to turnout. That’s great for all concerned. The voters are interested in voting; they turn out in large numbers; voter ID means we have good confidence in the legitimacy of the people that cast ballots; everyone’s a winner. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2014, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/953 "2014-10-24T16:15:14Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > That’s great for all concerned. The voters are interested in voting; they turn out in large numbers; voter ID means we have good confidence in the legitimacy of the people that cast ballots; everyone’s a winner. I had confidence before the voter suppression laws. Now we know that fewer qualified voters will be able to participate in elections, and that means we are all losers. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2014, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/954 "2014-10-24T20:18:58Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > I had confidence before the voter suppression laws. Now we know that fewer qualified voters will be able to participate in elections, and that means we are all losers. Yes, in person voter fraud is about as much a policy concern as carnivorous unicorns. As opposed to fraud by mail voting which is less than miniscule, but not curbed because it favors upper income folks. Judging from past data, the election results will lack legitimacy: nonvoters are now poorer and voters have higher incomes. Back in 1972 voters and non-voters were pretty similar. There were differences during the 1990s, but they were mild. No longer. Non-voters skew left. For the off year election 2010, those with incomes below 40,000 had a turnout of 28%-45%. Those with incomes above $50,000 had turnout in the 52-62% range. [Cite](http://www.vox.com/2014/10/24/7055091/class-and-turnout). So there’s reason to believe that the results of this election will lack legitimacy, insofar as voter suppression policies successfully distort the voting pool. This will occur even if the Senate Dems retain control: their margin should have been larger. None of this will bother those who lack a sense of shame or democratic piety. After all, they know their arguments are weak, so they have to resort to subterfuge, ref gaming and a hefty thumb on the electoral scales. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2014, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/955 "2014-10-24T21:53:30Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > That’s great for all concerned. The voters are interested in voting; they turn out in large numbers; voter ID means we have good confidence in the legitimacy of the people that cast ballots; everyone’s a winner. If you’re right, the Democrats will benefit from such policies, because the Democrats have successfully (so far) portrayed them as attempts at suppression, which is a great motivator to those that the apparent suppression is targeted towards. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2014, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/956 "2014-10-24T22:09:36Z")
For what it’s worth: > **[Bridgeport State Rep. Christina Ayala arrested on 19 voting fraud charges](https://www.nhregister.com/connecticut/article/Bridgeport-State-Rep-Christina-Ayala-arrested-on-11364225.php)** > > The arrest warrant affidavit also alleges Ayala provided fabricated evidence to state... ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2014, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/957 "2014-10-24T22:53:01Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > For what it’s worth: > > [http://www.nhregister.com/government-and-politics/20140926/bridgeport-state-rep-christina-ayala-arrested-on-19-voting-fraud-charges](http://www.nhregister.com/government-and-politics/20140926/bridgeport-state-rep-christina-ayala-arrested-on-19-voting-fraud-charges) Oh, look! You found one! If you can manage to find another couple of thousand you might have a statistically significant problem. And she’s STILL outnumbered by Republican shills committing voter fraud to prove that voter fraud exists in any significant numbers. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2014, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/958 "2014-10-25T00:00:40Z")
It is vital that Kentuckians re-elect Mitch McConnell, in order to restore the dignity of the Senate. [I’m not making this up](http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/george-will-restoration-of-senates-dignity-rides-on-mitch-mcconnell/2014/10/22/43a1d722-5950-11e4-b812-38518ae74c67_story.html). The second best part of Will’s column is where he talks about the “negligible economic importance” of raising the minimum wage. Which I suppose is true, unless you’re making the minimum wage. If I still lived in Kentucky, I’d be leaning toward voting for Alison Lundergan Grimes. Not that she’s a very appealing candidate (for one thing, being such a weasel that she can’t bring herself to admit that she voted for Obama). But she has a marvelously euphonious Wizard-of-Oz name. Al-i-son Lun-der-gan Grimes. Fol-low the yellow brick road. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2014, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/959 "2014-10-25T00:09:10Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Lately, Republican actions have been driving black turnout to some degree. As long as Republicans do things that disproportionately hurt black people – like the egregious voter ID requirements – the Democrats probably won’t have to do much to get them to turnout. Hmmm, what’s an issue that Democrats are wrong about that disproportionately hurts black people? Could it be… immigration? ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2014, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/960 "2014-10-25T00:13:01Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Hmmm, what’s an issue that Democrats are wrong about that disproportionately hurts black people? Could it be… immigration? Neither of those things is true anywhere other than in your head. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=47) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=49)