# GOP still trending to win Senate **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2014, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426 "2014-08-13T10:52:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 54
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1061 "2014-10-29T15:20:20Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Given that[a prominent GOP candidate for Senate won’t say what **he** wants a GOP Senate to do](http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/scott-brown-tries-fake-his-way-through-debate), you can hardly blame his supporters for going that way as well. 😃 This is a misleading claim from a misleading blog post. If you look at the actual clip, Brown had already responded to the issue, in stating his opposition to the current proposals to effectively tax carbon. The moderator followed up with a question about whether he thought we would _ever_ have to tax it, and at that point Brown said he doesn’t want to talk about the future. In context, his meaning was clear - he currently doesn’t think it should be taxed but couldn’t speculate about whether we might someday reach that point. (By contrast, it was his opponent who was asked about taxing carbon - which she apparently supports - and ignored the question in favor of some all-purpose political jive.) [The second claim in that post is even more ridiculous. Brown is being completely consistent, in saying that he thinks it’s very reasonable to assume that ISIS terrorists will try to sneak across the border but that he doesn’t have any evidence that they have actually done so to this point.] ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1062 "2014-10-29T15:30:39Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Blindness is funny. > > Not the Helen Keller type – the kind that comes from eyes deliberately squeezed shut. You do realize that the best prognosticators still don’t have Republicans as more than about a 2 to 1 favorite, right? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1063 "2014-10-29T15:31:52Z")
[But what will they do with it?!](http://www.salon.com/2014/10/29/gops_fatal_do_nothing_problem_why_everything_changes_once_republicans_have_to_govern/) ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1064 "2014-10-29T16:08:31Z")
> [@montag01](#): > > Just out of curiosity, what does it motivate you to do? Just keep posting on a message board that has zero impact on American culture? Or are you now interested in something like running for office yourself, or perhaps donating to various campaigns you might not have donated to before? I suspect that what he means is that it makes him more partisan on this board. SDMB has the same effect on me. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1065 "2014-10-29T16:26:54Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Helen Keller blindness can be funny. Like how did Helen Keller burn her hands? She tried to read the waffle iron. How did Helen Keller’s parents used to punish her? They left a plunger in the toilet! Why can’t Helen Keller have babies? Because she’s dead! ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 4:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1066 "2014-10-29T16:31:46Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > You do realize that the best prognosticators still don’t have Republicans as more than about a 2 to 1 favorite, right? Gotta agree with iiandyii here. I’m sticking with by prediction of GOP +8, but if the Democrats’ ground game is as good as advertised, the polls could be skewed against them. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1067 "2014-10-29T16:32:09Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > How did Helen Keller’s parents used to punish her? They left a plunger in the toilet! Ouch! Alternatively, They’d rearrange the furniture. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1068 "2014-10-29T16:58:14Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > the polls could be skewed I’m proud of you, son. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1069 "2014-10-29T17:14:05Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > You do realize that the best prognosticators still don’t have Republicans as more than about a 2 to 1 favorite, right? Yes. I guess I trust myself more than I trust “the best prognosticators.” I gave 3:1 odds, putting my money where my mouth was. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1070 "2014-10-29T17:16:24Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Yes. > > I guess I trust myself more than I trust “the best prognosticators.” I gave 3:1 odds, putting my money where my mouth was. That’s why I took the bet. I wouldn’t have taken 2:1 odds. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1071 "2014-10-29T17:16:44Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > How did Helen Keller’s parents used to punish her? > > They left a plunger in the toilet! > > Why can’t Helen Keller have babies? > > Because she’s dead! Why were Helen Keller’s legs yellow? Her dog was blind, too! ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1072 "2014-10-29T17:17:03Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’m sticking with by prediction of GOP +8, but if the Democrats’ ground game is as good as advertised, the polls could be skewed against them. One thing I wonder about is Orman in KS. He is a big part of Democratic hopes, and this is one of the closest races in the county - 538 rates that race as even money (with Orman 75% likely to stick with the Dems if elected). But he is an independent. How good of a ground game could an independent have? I would have to think that even a Republican ground game would have to outclass that of an independent. (Unless the Democrats intend to mount a big GOTV campaign for Orman?) ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1073 "2014-10-29T17:17:29Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Helen Keller blindness can be funny. Like how did Helen Keller burn her hands? She tried to read the waffle iron. > > Reasonable people can disagree on whether the Constitution is an infallible unchanging document produced by infallible men with Jesus at their sides or if it should be reinterpreted as times change. Since there will never again be a Republican president, those who share your beliefs will get fewer nominations. Bookmarking this post. Thanks, chum. Future predictions from you will be tagged with a link back to this confident prediction, especially if the 2016 election produces a Republican president. But reasonable people who want the Constitution changed should amend it, not “reinterpret” it. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1074 "2014-10-29T17:22:48Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Thanks, chum. Future predictions from you will be tagged with a link back to this confident prediction, especially if the 2016 election produces a Republican president. [This is probably the only way.](http://www.salon.com/2014/10/29/gop_leaders_sneaky_16_plan_how_kevin_mccarthy_hopes_to_win_back_the_white_house/) ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1075 "2014-10-29T17:31:22Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Bookmarking this post. > > Thanks, chum. Future predictions from you will be tagged with a link back to this confident prediction, especially if the 2016 election produces a Republican president. > > But reasonable people who want the Constitution changed should amend it, not “reinterpret” it. Look at the map. It’s hard to conceive of any state that Obama won being lost by a future Democrat. Plus demographics are really working against the red team. Texas is purpling up by the day, when you lose that you lose any hope at all. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1076 "2014-10-29T17:37:31Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > One thing I wonder about is Orman in KS. He is a big part of Democratic hopes, and this is one of the closest races in the county - 538 rates that race as even money (with Orman 75% likely to stick with the Dems if elected). > > But he is an independent. How good of a ground game could an independent have? I would have to think that even a Republican ground game would have to outclass that of an independent. (Unless the Democrats intend to mount a big GOTV campaign for Orman?) A good likely voter screen should already be picking up the effects of a ground game. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1077 "2014-10-29T17:41:37Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > A good likely voter screen should already be picking up the effects of a ground game. Good likely voter screens are hard. But we’ll see soon enough. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1078 "2014-10-29T17:44:54Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Look at the map. It’s hard to conceive of any state that Obama won being lost by a future Democrat. Plus demographics are really working against the red team. Texas is purpling up by the day, when you lose that you lose any hope at all. You’re wrong about quite a bit here. First, Obama himself has turned some states redder, such as West Virginia, and Colorado and Iowa aren’t looking as good for Democrats as they have in the past. As for states he won being lost by future Democrats, states he won were already lost, by him. Missouri used to be a bellwether state, yet the GOP has now won it in two straight elections that they lost, which means that Missouri is probably now reliably red so long as Republicans don’t get massacred. Texas is not getting purple, it’s not even close to getting purple. It went R+16 in 2012. It’s several elections away from turning blue, if it ever does. You’re assuming demographic change without accounting for how increasing minority populations have also failed to turn Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana, or Alabama blue. The same effect will occur in Texas, turning it even more red. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1079 "2014-10-29T17:48:42Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Good likely voter screens are hard. But we’ll see soon enough. True. That’s why I can’t do a happy dance just yet. The leads have grown consistent in key races, but they are not certain. And in any case, I do think we are headed for overtime. My prediction of +8 assumes the GOP gets +5 on election night, two runoffs(GA and LA), and one race headed for a recount. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1080 "2014-10-29T19:26:44Z")
Texas is redder than California is blue, however, Texas is trending left while California is staying put. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=53) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=55)