# GOP still trending to win Senate **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2014, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426 "2014-08-13T10:52:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 55
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1081 "2014-10-29T19:50:57Z")
We’ll see. In regards to demographics, here’s another famous adaher prediction: Republicans will do better than they did in 2012 among all groups: women, Latinos, African-Americans, Asians, young voters. I’ll even go further and say that the GOP will win the 18-29 vote this election. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1082 "2014-10-29T19:58:47Z")
Heck, let me go even further and give percentages, since I"m just like that: White voters: GOP 65-35 Black voters: Dem 85-15 Latino voters: Dem 65-35 Asian voters: Dem-55-45 Women voters: Dem 52-48 18-29 voters: GOP 51-49 ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1083 "2014-10-29T20:14:23Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I gave 3:1 odds, putting my money where my mouth was. Really? What are your terms? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1084 "2014-10-29T20:16:01Z")
Let’s do it wrestling style, loser leaves SDMB. Typical of wrestling style, we’ll only book them to leave SDMB for three months, at which point they’ll return, only to turn on their own side! ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1085 "2014-10-29T20:20:54Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Let’s do it wrestling style, loser leaves SDMB. Typical of wrestling style, we’ll only book them to leave SDMB for three months, at which point they’ll return, only to turn on their own side! Quiet Sonny, the adults are talking. I’m thinking about giving \*\*Bricker \*\*a chance to win back some of the money I’ve won from him, so if you queer the deal, you’ll get the back of his hand. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2014, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1086 "2014-10-29T23:48:20Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Republicans will do better than they did in 2012 among all groups: women, Latinos, African-Americans, Asians, young voters. I’ll even go further and say that the GOP will win the 18-29 vote this election. Wow, betting on regression to the mean. That’s pretty bold. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1087 "2014-10-30T01:23:43Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > Really? What are your terms? Posted in the wagers made earlier in this very thread. ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1088 "2014-10-30T02:05:10Z")
> [@elfkin477](#): > > I’d missed the fact that the tens and tens of thousands of kids from south America who have come over in the past year all had visas. Why does the news never mention that? I have a question. Do you think they got in without being noticed? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1089 "2014-10-30T02:42:57Z")
You mean, in addition to all the kids coming here from Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala, we’ve got thousands more coming from South America? Well, shit! ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1090 "2014-10-30T03:45:13Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > It’s hard to conceive of any state that Obama won **being lost by a future Democrat.** Since “future” is an extremely long time, I could see a future Republican candidate winning Nevada, Colorado or Virginia. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1091 "2014-10-30T13:34:05Z")
Even if they did, that wouldn’t be enough to carry the electoral vote. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1092 "2014-10-30T14:41:16Z")
Good on the NY Times for reporting how classy the Democrats are in their desperation: > **[In Democratic Election Ads in South, a Focus on Racial Scars (Published 2014)](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/30/us/politics/from-democrats-election-focus-on-racial-scars.html?_r=1)** > > Democrats in the closest Senate races in the South are turning to racially charged messages to jolt African-Americans into voting and stop a Republican takeover in Washington. Just shows that they really never changed. They just switched their old message to different constituencies. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1093 "2014-10-30T14:46:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Good on the NY Times for reporting how classy the Democrats are in their desperation: > > [http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/30/us/politics/from-democrats-election-focus-on-racial-scars.html?\_r=1](http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/30/us/politics/from-democrats-election-focus-on-racial-scars.html?_r=1) > > Just shows that they really never changed. They just switched their old message to different constituencies. Negative advertising is common because it works. Further, most politicians suck. It makes sense that playing up the negatives of your opponent is more effective than playing up your own positives – your own positives are usually not very impressive. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1094 "2014-10-30T15:03:03Z")
That’s not just negative advertising. It’s race baiting. The NY Times, being the NY Times, is still kind enough to call it “fear of intimidation”, but let’s call it what it is: Democrats are trying to play on hate. And they don’t have the balls to run those ads in front of a wider audience. Thankfully the Republicans are doing it for them. Everyone should see these ads if they have merit, shouldn’t they? Not to mention the ads are just pure lies. Stand Your Ground had nothing to do with the Martin case and the idea that supporting Republicans means more Fergusons is just pure hatemongering with no basis in fact. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1095 "2014-10-30T15:07:22Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Stand Your Ground had nothing to do with the Martin case Really now? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1096 "2014-10-30T15:09:30Z")
[ABC reports on a recent Harvard poll](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/majority-millennials-turn-obama-favor-gop-led-congress/story?id=26553815): > [@](#): > > … 18-29 year-old voters … who said they will “definitely be voting” favor a Republican-led Congress 51-47 percent, according to the poll. > > … many of the millennials voting next week have come of age under Obama with no memory of the second Bush administration that drove many young voters to the Democratic Party in 2008. :eek: :eek: :eek: ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1097 "2014-10-30T15:09:47Z")
The law played no part in the case. He got off on pure self-defense. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1098 "2014-10-30T15:09:51Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > . . . and the idea that supporting Republicans means more Fergusons is just pure hatemongering with no basis in fact. Considering [along what lines the public discussion breaks down](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=730860), it would seem to have some basis in fact. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1099 "2014-10-30T15:12:23Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > [ABC reports on a recent Harvard poll](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/majority-millennials-turn-obama-favor-gop-led-congress/story?id=26553815): > > :eek: :eek: :eek: That shouldn’t be surprising. Voters’ initial voting habits tend to be formed by their experience with the President they grew up with. So young people who came of age during the Bush years are strongly Democratic and those that came of age during the Obama years are trending Republican(probably a lot more Republican in the 18-24 cohort than 25-29.) If Obama makes as much of a hash out of his last two years as Bush did, the Republicans’ supposed demographic problems will be pretty much gone for the forseeable future. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1100 "2014-10-30T15:15:10Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Considering [along what lines the public discussion breaks down](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=730860), it would seem to have some basis in fact. No one supports police brutality and if anything conservatives and libertarians have become more skeptical of government authority in this respect. Who has been fighting against civil asset forfeiture? No knock raids? Surveillance? Democrats have been AWOL on these issues lately. They still get motivated by police brutality against their constituent groups, but that’s about it. Besides, these ads don’t tell African-Americans anything they don’t already know. As Michael Steele points out in the article, the Democrats’ most loyal group isn’t so loyal anymore. They aren’t trending Republican, but they appear poised to stay home because Democrats take them for granted. So break out the hatemongering! Like I said, Democrats have a lot of experience with this kind of campaigning in the South. They’ve just changed the target groups. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=54) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=56)