# GOP still trending to win Senate **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 13, 2014, 10:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426 "2014-08-13T10:52:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 56
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1101 "2014-10-30T15:32:05Z")
Stand your ground was not raised as a defense in the Zimmerman trial, but the jury was instructed that Zimmerman had the right to stand his ground. So it is factually incorrect to say it played no role. > [@adaher](#): > > No one supports police brutality and if anything conservatives and libertarians have become more skeptical of government authority in this respect. Who has been fighting against civil asset forfeiture? No knock raids? Surveillance? Democrats have been AWOL on these issues lately. They still get motivated by police brutality against their constituent groups, but that’s about it. Bullshit. Libertarians have indeed been fighting civil asset forfeiture, alongside liberals who have been fighting it for longer, and who actually have political power unlike the libertarians. But Conservatives are, on the whole, the ones who they are fighting against. There are some exceptions. Philadelphia has terrible civil asset forfeiture laws being defended by a Democratic establishment. But in the bigger picture it is Conservative Republicans and their law and order rhetoric that keeps them in place in most jurisdictions. Ditto no-knock raids, and other War on Drugs tactics. Radley Balko is a great example of the kind of advocate you’re talking about. He’s arguably a libertarian (as a journalist, I don’t think he’s ever disclosed his partisan affiliations), but he’s inarguably a social liberal fighting against social conservatives. He wants to legalize drugs and thinks people should be reading Ta-Nehisi Coates. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1102 "2014-10-30T15:34:39Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > That’s not just negative advertising. It’s race baiting. The NY Times, being the NY Times, is still kind enough to call it “fear of intimidation”, but let’s call it what it is: Democrats are trying to play on hate. It’s playing on fear, which has a long and inglorious history of success in US politics. Some of the fear is rational – Republicans have shown no interest in tamping down on police violence against black people, and the huge disparities in our justice system. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1103 "2014-10-30T15:38:10Z")
Republicans have actually been pushing prison and sentencing reform. [http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/how-republicans-stopped-being-tough-on-crime-20141001](http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/how-republicans-stopped-being-tough-on-crime-20141001) Richard, I get that Democrats favor this stuff in theory, but it has never been a priority. Arguably Republicans have lately made it more of a priority than Democrats, which shouldn’t be surprising given the Republicans’ history on civil rights issues. The Democrats will do what they always do, jump on the bandwagon when it’s likely to pass and then claim they are the ones who made it happen. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1104 "2014-10-30T15:43:38Z")
If your argument is that the vast majority of Democratic politicians have never made criminal justice reform a central issue then I agree wholeheartedly. But it has been liberal activists who have kept those issues alive, and it is liberal and libertarian votes that the handful of reform-minded GOP politicians are trying to win. Unfortunately, the national GOP is not going to pass any criminal justice reform. If a GOP-controlled House and Senate pass criminal justice reform approved by the likes of Radley Balko in the next decade–such as eliminating mandatory minimums for drug crimes–I hereby personally promise to vote an straight Republican ticket in the next election. Until then, let’s watch Obama’s nomination of Vanita Gupta for head of the Civil Rights Division. She’s a criminal justice reformer. If the GOP broadly welcomes her (and I’m not ruling that out, there have been some encouraging signs), then I’ll reduce some of my skepticism over the newfound profession of concern over the criminal justice system. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1105 "2014-10-30T15:50:16Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Really now? I don’t think it was invoked. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1106 "2014-10-30T15:52:31Z")
It was. The jury was instructed that Zimmerman had no duty to retreat and that he had the right to “stand his ground.” That’s part of what the law does. It can also be asserted as part of an affirmative defense or to attempt to dismiss the charge. And you’re right that it was not so asserted. But the jury was still instructed as to the Stand Your Ground law, and we have no way of knowing if they would have come out a different way if Zimmerman had a duty to retreat when possible. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1107 "2014-10-30T15:53:32Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > If your argument is that the vast majority of Democratic politicians have never made criminal justice reform a central issue then I agree wholeheartedly. But it has been liberal activists who have kept those issues alive, and it is liberal and libertarian votes that the handful of reform-minded GOP politicians are trying to win. > > Unfortunately, the national GOP is not going to pass any criminal justice reform. If a GOP-controlled House and Senate pass criminal justice reform approved by the likes of Radley Balko in the next decade–such as eliminating mandatory minimums for drug crimes–I hereby personally promise to vote an straight Republican ticket in the next election. I wouldn’t expect that much, but I’m gratified that you would consider the GOP if they did that. And I do think there’s an opportunity for movement. Especially since it’s precisely the new Republicans, the Tea Partiers, who are making this an issue. It’s the old-line Republicans who are primarily opposed. The Tea Partiers and liberals can work together on a lot of issues if the Tea Party matures. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1108 "2014-10-30T16:22:01Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Especially since it’s precisely the new Republicans, the Tea Partiers, who are making this an issue. 😕 Not that I’ve ever heard of. I’ve never seen “Stop Police Brutality!” or anything similar on their rally-signs or in their literature. Also, I don’t think they’re “new Republicans,” I think most of them have always voted R. The only thing new about them is their noise-level. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1109 "2014-10-30T16:28:04Z")
[Don’t panic.](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/29/senate-polls-wrong_n_6067260.html?utm_hp_ref=politics) > [@](#): > > As HuffPollster reported earlier in October, polling in the 2006 and 2010 midterm elections and the 2012 presidential election all understated Democratic candidates. A similar systematic misfire in 2014 could reverse Republican leads in a small handful of states I’m calling Democratic wins in KY, GA, and CO to keep the gavel in Harry’s hands. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1110 "2014-10-30T16:53:54Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > [Don’t panic.](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/29/senate-polls-wrong_n_6067260.html?utm_hp_ref=politics) > I’m calling Democratic wins in KY, GA, and CO to keep the gavel in Harry’s hands. I’m not particularly optimistic – I think it’s about 60-40 likely for the Republicans right now. But I’m quite hopeful about GA and CO, and I think AK might be the next most likely Democratic hold. But I’m expecting the worst. If the Republicans take the Senate, the bright side is that they’ll probably be more likely to nominate a conservative wackadoodle in 2016. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1111 "2014-10-30T18:24:40Z")
I’ll be voting for the Dem candidates for Senate in Georgia next week, but without much hope that things will change much even if they win. The D in Dem stands for Disappointment to me. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1112 "2014-10-30T19:02:15Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > [Don’t panic.](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/29/senate-polls-wrong_n_6067260.html?utm_hp_ref=politics) > I’m calling Democratic wins in KY, GA, and CO to keep the gavel in Harry’s hands. I’m on the record of thinking that it is hard to go against history and I did agree with many pollsters that the chances were going to be better for the Republicans in the midterms, and they reported that the next day after the election of 2012. Having say that, that there is a chance that Republicans will not take the senate tells me that even when history would tell you one thing there is something that the people is finally getting, the Republicans of today are not like the Republicans of a generation ago. And even if they take the senate, scientifically speaking, they will not do much; as this opinion at the Nature Journal tell us: [http://www.nature.com/news/us-midterm-elections-offer-little-hope-for-science-1.16193](http://www.nature.com/news/us-midterm-elections-offer-little-hope-for-science-1.16193) > [@](#): > > When US voters head to the polls on 4 November, they are poised to set in motion a major political shift that promises to intensify partisan strife over issues such as climate change, immigration and research funding. For the first time since 2006, Republicans are likely to win full control of the US Congress — having seized the House of Representatives in 2010, they are now predicted to take control of the Senate. > > The development seems inauspicious for US researchers who depend on government funding. Prominent Republicans have repeatedly questioned the veracity of biological evolution and human-induced climate change, and party leaders’ push for drastic spending cuts has resulted in across-the-board reductions known as sequestration, which slashed 5.1% from science agencies’ budgets in 2013. > > Yet in fact, the changing balance of power is expected to have little practical impact — because Congress may not be able to do much of anything. Experts see little hope of breaking the political gridlock that has made the current Congress, which began in January 2013, arguably the least productive in modern history. “It doesn’t matter what happens to the Senate,” says Michael Lubell, director of public affairs for the American Physical Society in Washington DC. “The outcome is going to be the same.” > > Although Republicans already hold a commanding advantage in the House of Representatives, they are expected to win only a simple majority in the 100-member Senate, not the three-fifths majority that generally enables a party to pursue its legislative agenda without drawing any minority-party support. > [@](#): > > Relations are so bad between the two major parties that even the US pledge to help stop the Ebola outbreak in West Africa has sparked bickering. Earlier this month, Senator James Inhofe (Republican, Oklahoma) and several high-ranking Republicans in the House temporarily blocked Obama’s request for US$750 million to send military personnel and other resources to the outbreak zone. > > Funding for many science agencies did rise slightly overall in the 2014 fiscal year after the mandatory sequestration in 2013. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s budget actually rose by roughly $575 million in 2014, to $5.3 billion. But the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the world’s largest biomedical-research funder, received $29.9 billion, less than its pre-sequester budget of $30.7 billion. > [@](#): > > Beyond the coming election, US policy analysts are already looking to another, key political test: whether lawmakers will finalize a 2015 budget deal before they depart for the year in late November. Jennifer Zeitzer, deputy director of public affairs at the Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology in Bethesda, Maryland, sees signs of a “good-faith effort” to approve a spending deal in the next several weeks. > > But even if the lawmakers deliver, she says, that will not make up for four years of legislative torpor. “This Congress was so spectacularly unproductive,” she says, “that even showing up will give the next Congress a leg up.” So, I’m not panicking even if the senate is lost, but I do expect a lot of really retarded votes; again, this are not the Republicans of a generation ago. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1113 "2014-10-30T19:09:22Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The law played no part in the case. He got off on pure self-defense. Then you don’t understand the SYG law, which changes the standard of proof of self-defense, from (before SYG) preponderance of the evidence to (with SYG) the DA having to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that it _wasn’t_ self-defense. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1114 "2014-10-30T19:30:43Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > 😕 Not that I’ve ever heard of. I’ve never seen “Stop Police Brutality!” or anything similar on their rally-signs or in their literature. > > . Police brutality is already against the law though. What we’re more concerned about is what’s legal, like taking people’s assets without trial, using SWAT teams for marijuana busts, and the “mission creep” of government agencies like Homeland Security enforcing trade laws or going after child porn. Even the Department of Education has used a SWAT team at least once over student loan fraud. It is mainly a libertarian issue, but as libertarians are moving increasingly towards the Republicans it’s becoming an issue of interest among Republican Congressmen and think tanks. Whereas Democrats are becoming focused on issues very specific to their constituencies, something which I’ve long predicted would happen and will continue to be the primary influence on Democratic policies as demographics change. It all becomes about pleasing this or that constituency on very specific issues rather than having an overarching ideological goals. Police brutality is a great example of that, because it’s a very specific aspect of a larger problem: the arrogance of government authorities. That’s the root cause that has to be addressed. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2014, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1115 "2014-10-30T19:34:48Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > [Don’t panic.](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/29/senate-polls-wrong_n_6067260.html?utm_hp_ref=politics) > I’m calling Democratic wins in KY, GA, and CO to keep the gavel in Harry’s hands. Unlikely for all three, since McCOnnell and Gardner have solid leads now and GA is going to a runoff. You’re thinking more of IA, NH, and NC. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2014, 6:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1116 "2014-10-31T06:32:38Z")
If Democrats want to turn Texas blue, they’ll have to start winning the Texas Hispanic vote a little more consistently. Abbott currently trails Davis among Hispanics by only two points: > **[UT/TT Poll: Abbott Holds 16-Point Lead Over Davis](https://www.texastribune.org/2014/10/23/uttt-poll-abbott-leads-davis-governors-race/)** > > Republican Greg Abbott holds a double-digit lead over Democrat Wendy Davis in the race for governor of Texas, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2014, 8:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1117 "2014-10-31T08:39:35Z")
Heh. Mark Begich says the President is “not relevant” because “he’s gone in two years”. White House rebuts him: > **[White House Insists Obama Is Relevant | National Review](https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/white-house-insists-obama-relevant-joel-gehrke/)** > > President Obama’s spokesman took a moment to rebut the vulnerable Senate Democrat who claimed that he isn’t relevant, saying that “the vast majority” of Americans disagree. Senator Mark Begich (D.,… The President said, “Do what you need to do”, but he sure isn’t making it easy for them. Meanwhile, apparently Harry Reid is gone as Dem leader no matter what because none of the embattled Democrats are willing to endorse his reelection. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2014, 11:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1118 "2014-10-31T11:02:30Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > [Don’t panic.](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/10/29/senate-polls-wrong_n_6067260.html?utm_hp_ref=politics) > I’m calling Democratic wins in KY, GA, and CO to keep the gavel in Harry’s hands. BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!! I’m calling you a very very mistaken person. ::snicker:: ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2014, 12:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1119 "2014-10-31T12:33:35Z")
Republican odds at 538 took a fairly big jump yesterday, and now stand at 68.5%. Again, I don’t know if this represents new polling or just time running out. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2014, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426/1120 "2014-10-31T13:34:21Z")
Do the models account for the fact that if Georgia is \<50% victory then the Republican is much more likely to win the run-off? Given such coin-flip-ish odds, it seems like that’s a pretty important factor. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=55) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/gop-still-trending-to-win-senate/695426.md?page=57)